2nd August 2012
Goodwood Betting: Saddler's Rock can reverse Gold Cup form with Colour Vision
Goodwood 3.15pm – Artemis Goodwood Cup – Group 2 – 2m
The first and third from the Ascot Gold Cup square up once again and this time around there are 3 reasons to suggest Saddler’s Rock can reverse the form with Colour Vision and it is a 15-8 chance with BetVictor to do so.
The Ascot Gold Cup was run at a crawl thanks to Silvestre De Sousa going off from the front at a ridiculously slow speed and the one horse it seemed to hinder most was the hard pulling Saddler’s Rock. This race is only over 2m and it looks like today’s race will be run at a more honest gallop. Saddler’s Rock ran off level weights with Colour Vision at Ascot and now gets 4lb from that horse in today’s race with only 3lb separating them on ratings.
The other big factor that gives it chance to reverse form is the ground. It seemed unsuited by the going at Ascot and this quicker ground should be in its favour now. It previously beat Opinion Poll with ease at Doncaster and then probably needed the run on its first start this season. They mentioned a liking for quick ground at Doncaster and should find it quick enough at Goodwood. It has only raced 8 times, looks very progressive and could improve way past its current rating of 114.
Colour Vision is respected but now gives weight away to the field in the way of a 4lb penalty for winning a Group 1 race. It was 3rd to Fame and Glory last October and only beaten 1 ¼ lengths and then came back this season with a win over Red Cadeaux at Kempton. That rival has proved a very reliable yardstick this season with a win in the Group 2 Yorkshire Cup and followed up with 2nd and 3rd places in Group 1 and Group 2 races. The improvement it has shown has been rapid as its last win before this season was in a class 3 conditions race at Pontefract worth just 6k to the winner.
Simenon is improving in leaps and bounds too and although it only won a class 2 handicap and class 2 conditions race at Ascot is looked far better than its rating and won the races by 6 lengths and 7 lengths. Its previous win in Ireland was by 15 lengths and Willie Mullins has brought this along well. It is now rated 106 and has 11lb to find with Colour Vision (gets 4lb) and 8lb to find with Saddler’s Rock. Its lifetime form on the flat looks quite ordinary but it also has a 2nd in a Grade 2 Novice Hurdle.
Electrolyser, Chiberta King, Askar Tau and Aaim To Prosper all look outclassed here and odds are 66-1, 40-1, 28-1 and 40-1 and all are dismissed quite easily based on their previous efforts. I am hoping Electrolyser or Chiberta King lead the way from the front at a decent pace.
Lost In The Moment was only beaten a head in this race last year by Opinion Poll. Its last win on turf was October 2010 when winning a class 2 handicap and it also won at Meydan in January 2011 on their Tapeta surface. It was beaten 7 lengths at Pontefract recently on soft ground by Brown Panther in a poor 4 runner race when Jet Away flopped and Glen’s Diamond folded tamely. It has 4 wins from 20 starts and does not fully convince me but clearly goes well here based on last year’s effort.
Nehaam was only 6th in the Ascot Gold Cup but will probably be suited by this drop back to 2m. It was beaten 1 ½ lengths by Fame and Glory last October and was only a short head behind Colour Vision. It has only won up to class 2 handicap level and was beaten 1 ¾ lengths by Times Up at Newmarket last September. It seems suited to a firm surface but often lacks the class and ability when facing better horses.
Times Up beat Chiberta King and Nehaam last September at Newmarket on good to firm ground. It has finished 2nd in a Group 2 in France but has raced mainly in handicaps until the last season. It ran this season in the Yorkshire Cup but looked one paced and was beaten 5 ¼ lengths by Red Cadeaux. It ran again at the end of May and dead heated for 4th at Sandown, finishing behind Chiberta King and in front of Askar Tau and Aaim To Prosper. It could have been saved for this race but needs to find improvement from somewhere.
I price it as follows to 100%:
Saddler’s Rock 13-8, Colour Vision 3-1, Simenon 6-1, Lost In The Moment 12-1, Nehaam and Times Up 25-1, Askar Tau, Aaim To Prosper and Chiberta King 50-1, Electrolyser 80/1.
It has been a good race for favourites with 6 winners in the last 10 years. Stoute and O’Brien have both won it twice in this time and Bin Suroor took the race in 2009. Dettori has won the race twice, Murtagh won the race for O’Brien on Yeats and Mick Kinane no longer rides but won the race 3 times. I make Saddler’s Rock slight value at the odds available and would fear Colour Vision the most, even with 4lb more on its back.
3pts WIN – Saddler’s Rock 15-8 BetVictor (BOG)
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Author: Formbook Frank