3rd August 2012
Goodwood Betting: Godolphin's second string Dysphonia looks the value in Oak Tree Stakes at Goodwood
4.50 Goodwood: Oak Tree Stakes (Group 3) (Fillies & Mares) (7f)
The Oak Tree Stakes was upgraded to Group status back in 2004 and in that time we have had four double figure prices landing this contest and in the same period only two favourites have been successful. Another interesting stat is that eight three year olds have won during the last twelve renewals and we have six of the fifteen runners on that age this year including hot favourite Gamilati who is a 6/4 shot with bookmakers Paddy Power.
The 3yo’s receive a 6lb age allowance and Gamilati is well ahead on official ratings also so she has a terrific chance on the book. The Godolphin runner won the Cherry Hinton Stakes as a two year old and this year won two races out in Meydan including the UAE 1,000 Guineas beating Pimpernel by 5 lengths. Since then she has had to undergo some minor surgery and makes her return after a 182-day absence. Obviously the enforced break puts a slight negative slant on things but if she is back to her best she will take the world of beating despite a poor draw in stall 14.
The other Godolphin runner is the ex-Australian mare Dysphonia, she was also out in Dubai but wasn’t that successful and her first run in England she was third to Chachamaidee in a Group 3 race at Lingfield. She then won a weak race at Leicester before finishing 8th to Joviality at Royal Ascot. That wasn’t a bad effort in the context of this race and shouldn’t be far away in this company. The 3yo Regal Realm won the Prestige Stakes here at Goodwood last season and looked a progressive sort, she was then fourth in the May Hill at Doncaster and well beaten in the Rockfel at Newmarket. Her only run this season was in the Nell Gwyn back in April and she finished almost last that day and now has questions to answer but does wear cheek pieces for the first time.
With German racing coming to the fore just lately its interesting that we have two raiders taking part here, Survey and Gracia Directa both have very good form and could be a danger to all. Survey was a good second to Cherry Danon in a Group 3 contest last time which puts her right in the picture and will be ridden by Tom Queally. The top weight Gracia Directa won at York last time over 6f beating Sioux Rising who also runs today. She does have form at this trip and is now chasing a four-timer. Another foreign entry is Sunday Nectar from France, she actually won a Listed race in Italy last time out and her overall form leaves her with something to find with some of these.
Sioux Rising and Inetrobil are both rated 100 which leaves them a stone behind Gamilati on bare form but are the leading hopes of the British trainers Richard Fahey and Kevin Ryan they both will have their supporters but probably need a drop in class to get their heads in front at present.
Intriguing race with Gamalati a mile clear on the book but just that niggling doubt about whether she will be 100% after her problems and at 6/4 she looks plenty short enough. The owners second string Dysphonia could be better value although both have high draws as do many of the fancied runners in this line up. The German pair have to be respected and Survey looks the best of those and maybe worth a small bet against the favourite who should win this if anywhere near her Guineas form frim Meydan.
1pt EW Dysphonia 12/1 Bet365
1pt Survey 7/1 Ladbrokes
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Author: Ray Singpost