Scotland » Scottish Cup » Mar 13/14

[Djordje]

Saturday 13 March 2010	Home	Draw	Away	BPP
	Kilmarnock v Celtic (12:15 GMT)	8.5	4.33	1.44	104.07 %
	Hibernian v Ross County (14:00 GMT)	1.36	5	10	103.53 %
	Dundee v Raith Rovers (15:00 GMT)	1.57	4	7	102.92 %
	Sunday 14 March 2010	Home	Draw	Away	BPP
	Rangers v Dundee United (12:05 GMT)	1.36	5	10	103.33 %

[theboybroon]

I thought the 9/1 best price about Ross county away toHibs was definitely a bit of value, but now after Coral and VC priced up today we can now get 10/1 for the away win.

No doubt in my mind that this is a big price for a young team playing with so much confidence in a one off cup tie. Were County to gain promotion this season they would be no bigger than 5/1 imo, half the odds we are offered for this match. Hypothetical i know but regardless i make County about a 13/2, 7/1 chance here.

Unfortunately there doesn't seem to be any AH lines set for any Scottish cup ties this weekend by the bookies or the exchanges and i'm unsure of the reason for this. Hopefully someone will enlighten me without having to go on the Betfair forum?

Anyway that leaves us with the EH and Paddy Power go 1.8 Ross county + 2 which is appeals. Other options are also available but for now i will have a small nibble on the away win at 10/1 even though hibs should prevail if their attitude is right and they treat the Highlanders with the repect they deserve. John Hughes certainly will, it's the players that may be the problem for the home side.

In other matches, at first glance a dogged Raith Rovers side may be a touch big against a stuttering Dundee and certainly warrant closer inspection.

[Jase82]

The AH lines probably won't come out until Saturday.

[theboybroon]

Originally Posted by Jase82

The AH lines probably won't come out until Saturday.

Any particular reason why you say this?

Have you seen them price it up so late before?

[Jase82]

Originally Posted by theboybroon

Any particular reason why you say this?

Have you seen them price it up so late before?

No, I just like to rack up as many posts as I can per day about anything

Yes, all the time. They often price the game up, and then leave it late to price other markets up. I had to wait a couple of days before anyone priced up the corner handicap market on the Europa League fixtures.

You might be lucky. They might price it up on Friday or something.

[theboybroon]

Originally Posted by Jase82

No, I just like to rack up as many posts as I can per day about anything

Yes, all the time. They often price the game up, and then leave it late to price other markets up. I had to wait a couple of days before anyone priced up the corner handicap market on the Europa League fixtures.

You might be lucky. They might price it up on Friday or something.

I know.

Seriously though, the AH is one of most poular markets out there so i'm not sure why a line has not been set by anyone if indeed they are going to do so.

I'll contact Betfair tomorrow if nothing is up by them to see what they say.

Probably something along the lines of, because nobody cares about Scottish football as it's sh*t.

[JackJarvis]

Why would they wait until Saturday to put the AH prices up? Most of the weekend's football are priced up on the asian lines Wednesday/Thursday and leagues such as the English Prem can be weeks in advance.

And just as expected, Scottish Cup now priced up on Sbobet.

[Jase82]

That's Sbobet though Jack.

Most the other bookies leave it a while before pricing up that market.

Like I said initially. It might be available on Friday.

[theboybroon]

Asian lines now out. Hmmmm lots to think about.

However my instinct is dragging me towards both teams to score in the Hibs v Ross county match @ 21/20 with Hills which i think is more than fair.

I reckon this game could well be a cracker between two good sides, but i'll come back a bit later on this evening, when hopefully my head's a bit clearer with any final selections.

Thoughts?

[Atko]

Originally Posted by theboybroon

Asian lines now out. Hmmmm lots to think about.

However my instinct is dragging me towards both teams to score in the Hibs v Ross county match @ 21/20 with Hills which i think is more than fair.

I reckon this game could well be a cracker between two good sides, but i'll come back a bit later on this evening, when hopefully my head's a bit clearer with any final selections.

Thoughts?

I'm a Hibs fan. Just so you know, for reasons of impartiality and all that.

I've not researched this game, but my gut instinct is that Hibs will win this. Ross County are a good Division 1 side but put them in the SPL and they'd be cannon fodder. The cup is a great leveller and the pitch at Easter Road is horrendous, meaning little football can be played. But Hibs' have far superior players to RC - in goals, in defence, in midfield and in attack.

I expect Hibs, under Hughes, to be focused. I expect that they'll get the job done, one way or another. At home this season, they've beaten every 'smaller' SPL team (ie bottom six). Not by much often, but they grind it out.

What might help Hibs is that Ross County aren't a particularly big side. Hibs struggle against sides that impose themselves in midfield. Guys like Richard Brittain, Ian Vigurs, Paul Lawson and Martin Scott are small players.

If you could get RC on a good handicap (maybe +1.5 or +1.75), then I'd consider it. But I think Hibs'll have too much here, although I expect it to be a fairly close match for at least 60 minutes.

Hope that helps!

[theboybroon]

Thanks for that Atko. some good points there.

Yeah, as the odds suggest Hibs should definitely prevail and obviously they are a class above RC in every department, but it is the cup ,and as you say the state of the pitch can be a great leveller.

Any pressure you would have to say is on the home side and that may be a factor. Even with the gulf in class, i just think county have enough about them make a good game of this. They'll raise their game and with confidence high this game could pan out closer than the bookies suggest, which is why i had a small bet on County @ 10's, which i though was a bit of value. Its not that i really expext it to come in.

Anyway, as i said i will mull over the H'caps later, but if i'm being honest there's a part of me thats saying Hibs could well give them a going over. Courage of your convictions and all that i suppose.

Thanks again

[RuleBritannia]

Sport	Football (Scotland)
Event	Kilmarnock v Celtic
Selection	Celtic -1.5 (Asian Handicap)
Strength	8/10
Date	13/03/2010
Bookmaker/Price	Bet365 @ 2.08 (Back)
Reasoning	This is a game that Celtic MUST win, purely down to the fact the league has all but gone and this remains their final chance for silverware this season, indeed some would argue the final chance for Mowbray to prove his worth. Celtic are expected to line up strong here and are boosted by the fact that both Loovens and Fortune are in contention, after recovering from knocks. They will also be looking to avenge what was an embarassing reverse when these 2 sides last met and history tells us, that despite Celtics form, they have a bit of a monopoly over Kilmarnock, who I believe will struggle without the influential characters of Bryson and Kyle. Celtic to win and win comfortabely for me and anything odds against is a value bet in my opinion.

[takeaboo]

Originally Posted by RB

As far as im aware Bryson will play today.He makes a massive difference to the Killie team.

[theboybroon]

Decided to take both teams to score in the Hibs match instead of County on one of the asian lines as i am just a little fearful of Hibs. County bar one player have a full squad to choose from and Derek Adams has stated that they will come and try win the game.

They're certainly a team with goals in them, and i fancy them along with Hibs to get on the scoresheet today.

Incidently the 4/5 about County +2 on the EH that i mentioned earlier in the week was 4/6 all morning, has just shortened again to 4/7 so definitely a bit of support coming in for the Highlanders on that line at least.


Hibs v Ross County: Both teams to score @ Evs Hills

[RuleBritannia]

Originally Posted by takeaboo

As far as im aware Bryson will play today.He makes a massive difference to the Killie team.

Yeah mate, you're right. He was a major doubt yesterday so I didn't check again for an update.

Even still, I reckon Celtic are bound to go over a team at some point, and today could and should be the day, given their overall record vs Kilmarnock.

[theboybroon]

Just incase, Hibs v Ross county is a 2pm Kick-off

[eighteighteight]

Originally Posted by RB

Brilliant eye I stayed away from Celtic with their form but fortune favors the brave

[nastro 1888]

Mate texted me this morning ( bluenose ) had 120/1 double with 3/1 celtic and 3/1 spurs Danny Invincible missed sitter for Kilmarnock in injury time, just watched the last 5 mins of spurs game hoping someone would score.

He also had Keane 3-1 . scared to phone him !


Sickener

[theboybroon]

Ross County desperately unlucky.

From what i heard on the radio on the way home, it looks like they deserved to win the match and in the second half it was one way traffic for the away team. The stats seem to back this up with more shots on and off target, more corners and equal possession. They certainly made the 10/1 i took look stupid, and there's no doubt that they were massive value today.

Not to worry as the main bet of both teams to score came in with ease. Still feel a bit deflated tbh, considering i didn't get matched on Raith Rovers +1 away to Dundee who won 2-1.

Back on Hibs game and with regards to the replay, i just heard on the Radio Hibs have played in the highlands 7 times and have only scored 1 goal in the process. I'm not sure how far back that record goes or how relevant it may be but it's an interesting stat nonetheless and may be a factor.

The replay should certainly be another cracker and it will be interesting to see how the bookies price it.

[Atko]

Originally Posted by theboybroon

Ross County desperately unlucky.

From what i heard on the radio on the way home, it looks like they deserved to win the match and in the second half it was one way traffic for the away team. The stats seem to back this up with more shots on and off target, more corners and equal possession. They certainly made the 10/1 i took look stupid, and there's no doubt that they were massive value today.

Not to worry as the main bet of both teams to score came in with ease. Still feel a bit deflated tbh, considering i didn't get matched on Raith Rovers +1 away to Dundee who won 2-1.

Back on Hibs game and with regards to the replay, i just heard on the Radio Hibs have played in the highlands 7 times and have only scored 1 goal in the process. I'm not sure how far back that record goes or how relevant it may be but it's an interesting stat nonetheless and may be a factor.

The replay should certainly be another cracker and it will be interesting to see how the bookies price it.

I was there, and County dominated the whole of the second half. They deserved to win the tie. It'll be an exceptionally difficult tie in Dingwall. Hibs have a poor record, as you've outlined, anywhere further north than Aberdeen.