England » Coca-Cola Football League Championship » Mar 9/10

[Djordje]

Tuesday 9 March 2010	Home	Draw	Away	BPP
	Peterborough United v Sheffield United (19:30 GMT)	3.25	3.4	2.56	99.24 %
	West Bromwich Albion v Sheffield Wednesday (19:45 GMT)	1.52	4.7	8	99.57 %
	Preston North End v Doncaster Rovers (19:45 GMT)	2.33	3.4	3.5	100.90 %
	Watford v Swansea City (19:45 GMT)	2.86	3.4	2.8	100.09 %
	Ipswich Town v Cardiff City (19:45 GMT)	2.4	3.4	3.4	100.49 %
	Queens Park Rangers v Plymouth Argyle (20:00 GMT)	1.85	3.7	5.5	99.26 %
	Crystal Palace v Bristol City (20:00 GMT)	2.1	3.45	4.2	100.41 %
	Wednesday 10 March 2010	Home	Draw	Away	BPP
	Reading v Derby County (20:00 GMT)	1.92	3.65	4.6	101.22 %

[Jk]

QPR look massive at that price. A great win against WBA at the weekend under Warnocks first game and surely they'll build on that against a poor Plymouth team. Looks a dead on pick for me.

[Aleksandarcox]

Originally Posted by Jk

QPR look massive at that price. A great win against WBA at the weekend under Warnocks first game and surely they'll build on that against a poor Plymouth team. Looks a dead on pick for me.

I' sticking with your prediction Jk. Warnock got QPR on fire, and with Simpson in form they can definitely crush away poor Plymouth that has away record 4-1-11. I might even go for handicap. So, QPR - Plymouth: 1 (1.75)

[MillwallPunter]

Sheffield United away at Peterborough looks a good bet, Peterborough manager says the team are down and that can't be good for morale, Sheffield United are going for Play-offs so will be up for a win.

The only teams Peterborough have beaten recently are Ipswich and QPR. Ipswich are as bad at Peterborough all thou not in the relegation zone and QPR were falling apart, with the chairman leaving.

[Ludi_the_woodpacker]

QPR is such an obvious bet - at home against Plymouth.Plymouth and Peterborough are at the bottom and although they show some teeth beat Barnsley away, draws with Preston, Liecester and Swansea, they are main favourites for L1 together with Peterborough.Too much teams fight to avoid 22th place, and my personal opinion - Ipswich will be there at the end of the season.QPR with their mythological Premiership ambitions are close to this place so they should perform till the end of thee season to be safe in the middle.They are obviously not in their real place and their last game showed this.Now a very suitable oponent at home.And I think that odds 1.80 are because of the current place of QPR and relatively good Plymouth form last days.But it should be arround 1.6.QPR have not won against Plymouth since 2005 but series are to be stopped so if it is a nice Tuesday night we can hit bookmakers
QPR - Plymouth Home win 1.72 (or more) 9/10

Another game that grabs me is Crystal Palace vs Bristol C.We saw terrible Bristol deffence that conceded 5 goals at home while they don't score much away.Crystal
Palace would have arround play-offs if they were not -10 points.Now they have nothing to fight but just avoid relegation and solve all their in side problems.If I knew that Bristol will show the same play as on Saturday then it would be a 10/10 Home win.

Crystal Palace - Bristol C Home win 2.00 8/10

Good Luck and wish you :cash

[Smooth Jimmy]

The reason I rarely bet on this league, unless it's maybe Newcastle at home, are games like QPR. So often form and ability go out of the window, and give way to inexplicable results. I imagine next season the only mostly reliable top Champonship side will be the Mighty Canaries

[Jase82]

Originally Posted by Smooth Jimmy

The reason I rarely bet on this league, unless it's maybe Newcastle at home, are games like QPR. So often form and ability go out of the window, and give way to inexplicable results. I imagine next season the only mostly reliable top Champonship side will be the Mighty Canaries

That's slightly incorrect imo. The reason so many results appear unexplainable IS because of ability. In the Championship it is purely a case that on their day, each side is capable of beating eachother. Obviously, there are the exceptions, like Newcastle, or Sunderland when they went up with over 100 points. When we went up we were a class apart.

Ability wise, it is often a level playing field. If you excuse the pun.

Q.P.R. is a weird one for me. Earlier in the season they were being priced up on reputation and expectation, now they are being priced up as though they are still in turmoil. The pricing seems a little slow. Maybe a few games ago they were worthy of slightly higher odds, but not now under Warnock. They had a great win at the weekend, and 1.75 is a bit of a gift imo considering the new manager syndrome clearly came into effect at the weekend.

[Aleksandarcox]

Now when I take into consideration recent QPR's record against Argyle, I'm definitely not going for handicap. Now, even bet on home victory is in doubt.
Reading against Derby County just might be a better choice, considering that Derby County has disasterous record on Madejski Stadium, and that Reading's home form is improving very much.

[Paul Ross]

Originally Posted by Ludi_the_woodpacker

QPR is such an obvious bet - at home against Plymouth.Plymouth and Peterborough are at the bottom and although they show some teeth beat Barnsley away, draws with Preston, Liecester and Swansea, they are main favourites for L1 together with Peterborough.Too much teams fight to avoid 22th place, and my personal opinion - Ipswich will be there at the end of the season.QPR with their mythological Premiership ambitions are close to this place so they should perform till the end of thee season to be safe in the middle.They are obviously not in their real place and their last game showed this.Now a very suitable oponent at home.And I think that odds 1.80 are because of the current place of QPR and relatively good Plymouth form last days.But it should be arround 1.6.QPR have not won against Plymouth since 2005 but series are to be stopped so if it is a nice Tuesday night we can hit bookmakers
QPR - Plymouth Home win 1.72 (or more) 9/10

Another game that grabs me is Crystal Palace vs Bristol C.We saw terrible Bristol deffence that conceded 5 goals at home while they don't score much away.Crystal
Palace would have arround play-offs if they were not -10 points.Now they have nothing to fight but just avoid relegation and solve all their in side problems.If I knew that Bristol will show the same play as on Saturday then it would be a 10/10 Home win.

Crystal Palace - Bristol C Home win 2.00 8/10

Good Luck and wish you :cash

Can you always quote the bookie as well please, then people can follow you if they want to.

[Paul Ross]

Originally Posted by Aleksandarcox

I' sticking with your prediction Jk. Warnock got QPR on fire, and with Simpson in form they can definitely crush away poor Plymouth that has away record 4-1-11. I might even go for handicap. So, QPR - Plymouth: 1 (1.75)

Bookie as well please.

[Aleksandarcox]

Originally Posted by Paul Ross

Bookie as well please.

Sorry, I don't get ya.

[Ludi_the_woodpacker]

Originally Posted by Paul Ross

Bookie as well please.

Sorry mate, usually add bookie now missed - Bet365 Good luck all

[LtfcPete]

Don't post too many picks in here but I'm surprised nobody has mentioned < 2.5 in the Watford vs Swansea game..

It doesn't seem to matter who Swansea are playing this year, the scorers are never worked too hard. The unders have gone 15-2 away from home this year - the first game of the season and one in which there were goals in the 93rd and 95th minute. They are on a streak of 15 straight league games with less than 2.5 goals, 9 of which had less than 1.5. These trends don't come along too often and the Swans are obviously putting all their marbles in the defence-first approach. As the game against Peterborough on the 5th December showed, anything can happen with these types of bet but when a team has had just 5 out of 34 games, thats just 14% of their league fixtures, this year go over 2.5 then there has to be value in backing the unders almost blind at this point. Of those 5, 2 of them were the first games of the season. As such, if the season had started a couple of weeks later then Swansea league games would only have had more than 2.5 goals in just 9% of the games. I have been doing this bet for a few weeks now and although the prices aren't too generous, it has proved profitable for sure.

The first meeting between these two ended 1-1, with a 93rd minute equaliser for Swansea this could so easily have had just one goal in it too. I think that Swansea are very similar to how Nottingham Forest are setting up away from home this year (remarkably similar stats - Swansea P 17 F 15 A 14.. Notts Forest P 17 F 13 A 14) and their match at Watford in December ended in a 0-0 stalemate. Of course, that is probably a very tenuous link to make. For a team to be in 4th position at this stage of the season whilst having only scored 30 goals, the fewest in the division, is remarkable and a testament to their water tight defence that can surely only be rivalled by the might Luton Town away defence(!). They are the best defensive unit in the division and the worst offensive team, in terms of goals at least. As the season draws to a close I can only see them becoming more careful and defensive, especially away from home, to consolidate their playoff spot and maybe make a play for that second automatic place. In the interest of balance it should be mentioned that Watford have had 53% of their games go over 2.5, so their stats produce more of the 'coinflip' scenario that you might expect.


Watford vs Swansea Under 2.5 Goals 20pts 1.67 Bwin
Watford vs Swansea Under 1.5 Goals 10pts 3.00 VictorChandler

EDIT: The price on the < 1.5 Goals is pretty decent considering that the side with the worst away defence, shipping 24 more goals on the road this season than the Swans, Scunthorpe are at Ipswich this weekend and the same bet is priced up at 3.50. Similarly Peterborough have had the 2nd most goals at home in their games this year and when they play Sheff Utd the same bet is best priced 3.25. So, I think there is some value to be had in that bet for sure.

[LtfcPete]

Originally Posted by punterspal2010

Slightly out with your stats as in 17 away games it is 14-3 for unders not 15-2 (3-0 newcastle, 2-1 leicester and 2-2 p'boro)

Also they have had overs in 6 of their 34 games not 5

Oh bloody hell Cheers for the correction, shouldn't skew things too much. Certainly not enough to put me off. Think I was muddled by the fact they were beaten 2-1 by Leicester away in the cup too.

[Thales]

I believe that if you're going to back QPR, over 2.5 is a better option.

Ok, Plymouth sucks, but they scored in 8 of the last 10 matches, and QPR conceded at least a goal in the last 10 matches.

IMO, hard to see QPR winning without conced, specially against a side that's fighting against relegation, I predict something like 2-1 or 3-1.

Bottom line, I see more value in over 2.5 @1.91.

[Djordje]

I generally avoid public bets, but I really struggle to find any value in QPR to be honest. They may win this one, but at those odds it would be ridiculous to back them.

Ok, they won against WBA last weekend, but that was their only 2nd win in 10 games, and they're instantly that short?

Don't want to jinx anyone's bet, but check their stats against Plymouth and you'll see that they won zero games in last 10 meetings with Argyle, so they are definitely bogey team for them.

[Djordje]

Forgot to add few words about Plymouth

It's true they are piss poor, but their recent results suggest they are hard to break down. They held Swansea, Leicester and Preston to draws lately, narrowly lost against Sheff Utd - and you cant say for any of these sides they are poor sides or out of form. Didn't see any report or highlights of their games though, so I can't judge their performance in these games.

Their away record is poor, but there is something between the lines. They have won 4 road games so far, more than most of the teams in league this season, and more I look at this match more I can smell some shocking away win.

5.50 at VC Bet anyone?

[!james]

Bristol City fan here

I rarely bet against my own team but I cannot see us getting a result tonight against Palace. We rarely do well at Selhurst (bar the playoff game a few seasons back) last time out we lost 4-2. Palace fans and players will be pumped up for the game after the Freddy Sears 'ghost goal' incident and the general dislike between the two teams. Ex Bristol City player Nick Carle will want to prove a point too.

best price i can find on Palace win - 11/10 (Skybet)

[Jase82]

Originally Posted by Djordje

Don't want to jinx anyone's bet, but check their stats against Plymouth and you'll see that they won zero games in last 10 meetings with Argyle, so they are definitely bogey team for them.

Only four of those previous ten games were at Loftus Road though. Three of the four ended in draws.

.....but it is midweek, so you could have a point.

The first "public" bet of the week, Liverpool, already lost, so it could be one to swerve.

[Djordje]

Originally Posted by Jase82

The first "public" bet of the week, Liverpool, already lost, so it could be one to swerve.

Liverpool was weekend, this is midweek