Group B

[tougher than the rest]

Some shocking odds for Croatia to beat Poland in the last round of Gruop B (e.g. Expekt offers 3.0). There is more than a gap in quality of both teams, the spirit in Polish team is low and even Beenhakker, who used to show how optimistic he is, said that he did not believe we have a chance to reach QF.
Of course I don't expect Croatia to push hard for three points but Poland is soooo weak in the midfield and in the defence that even if Croatia plays with its second choice of players they definitely should have a number of opportunities to beat The Holy Goalie. I rate this game to be 15-35-50 in favour of Croatia, hence a huge value bet with this odds. Also Croatia not to lose at 1.60 appeals and this is truly a banker IMHO

[DJ]

Problem with going in heavy on Croatia is that they may rest a lot of their star players like Modric, Olic and Srna. Croatia are Group B Champions, thanks to their head-to-head record against Germany and the 2-1 win. Even if Croatia lose and Germany win then Croatia stay top. I think I would be very cautious of backing any of the teams who have nothing to gain in their last fixture.

[JCtips]

[quote=DJ;1111688]Problem with going in heavy on Croatia is that they may rest a lot of their star players like Modric, Olic and Srna. Croatia are Group B Champions, thanks to their head-to-head record against Germany and the 2-1 win. Even if Croatia lose and Germany win then Croatia stay top. I think I would be very cautious of backing any of the teams who have nothing to gain in their last fixture.[/quote]

I agree it is a nice odd (3.00) on Croatia but also agree with DJ here.
Sometimes managers (Beenhakker in this case) say that to the outside world in order to mislead opponents and then they have a completely different speach in the locker room...

[tougher than the rest]

[quote=DJ;1111688]Problem with going in heavy on Croatia is that they may rest a lot of their star players like Modric, Olic and Srna. Croatia are Group B Champions, thanks to their head-to-head record against Germany and the 2-1 win. Even if Croatia lose and Germany win then Croatia stay top. I think I would be very cautious of backing any of the teams who have nothing to gain in their last fixture.[/quote]

Your points are 100% correct, therefore I wrote that Croatia is a [U]value bet[/U] and not an obvious choice considering lineup

Nevertheless you have to take under consideration that substitute players always want to give a good performance - especially on such a big event like EC and in front of >10000 Croatian supporters. I think that this could even turn into an additional advantage for Croatia because they can field a rested and "hungry" for play team while in game vs Austria afer 60 minutes many Poles looked like they were going to pass away on the pitch and the game vs Croatia will be our third in 7 days. I believe that European Championship is something special for every player and team - Poland will play for pride and for Beenhakker but I don't expect Croatia to give away such a game just like that. GLA

[tougher than the rest]

According to Croatian newspaper "24sata" the starting eleven will be:
Pletikosa - Corluka, Simic, Knezevic, Pranjic - Rakitic, N. Kovac, Vukojevic, Kranjcar - Klasnic, Petric
It doesn't look bad

R.Kovac, Simunic, Srna and Modric won't play because they have already been booked. Olic is also expected to miss the game.

[DJ]

[quote=tougher than the rest;1111978]According to Croatian newspaper "24sata" the starting eleven will be:
Pletikosa - Corluka, Simic, Knezevic, Pranjic - Rakitic, N. Kovac, Vukojevic, Kranjcar - Klasnic, Petric
It doesn't look bad

R.Kovac, Simunic, Srna and Modric won't play because they have already been booked. Olic is also expected to miss the game.[/quote]

So once again by saying that Srna, Modric and Olic were going to be dropped looks like I'm right again. And value only exists if there are good reasons why a bet should win with that value not reasons why the value is there in the first place and why the odds are higher. I understand your view points that Croatia are still the better team and sure they may well win and good luck to you if you take the bet but I'm going to leave it alone.

[DeMMa]

If Austria beat Germany... does that knock out Germany, and Austria & Croatia go through??

[chiqo]

[quote=DeMMa;1112935]If Austria beat Germany... does that knock out Germany, and Austria & Croatia go through??[/quote]

answered you in the Germany/Austria thread DeMMa (was the same question)

[JCtips]

Austria-Germany
Well, Germany are the clear favorites here but this poor in quality but big at heart Austria team is having a tournament above general expectations when considering their value and playing at home for the chance of a lifetime I would not underestimate them.
Austria plays in an unusual these days and at this level 3-2-3-2 "kick and rush" model which is, in theory, an attacking style of play...funny thing is that they have 13 unders in their last 20 overall games, have 2 unders and have scored only once in this group stage.
It should be a hard fight and not easy to the more skillful team (Germany).
[B]My pick: Austria +1 AH (Asian Handicap);[/B]

Poland-Croatia
Croatia already qualified, will spare at least half the team but this doesn't mean they will give the game away as the substitutes will try to show coach Billic they can make the 1st team.
Still, all the pressure to win is on the other side (Poland) and after they let the previous game slip away in an injury time penalty they will go "all in" on this one in order to have a chance of qualifying.
[B]My pick: Poland 0 AH (Asian Handicap);[/B]

Good luck!

JC

[JCtips]

[quote=JCtips;1113957]Austria-Germany
Well, Germany are the clear favorites here but this poor in quality but big at heart Austria team is having a tournament above general expectations when considering their value and playing at home for the chance of a lifetime I would not underestimate them.
Austria plays in an unusual these days and at this level 3-2-3-2 "kick and rush" model which is, in theory, an attacking style of play...funny thing is that they have 13 unders in their last 20 overall games, have 2 unders and have scored only once in this group stage.
It should be a hard fight and not easy to the more skillful team (Germany).
[B]My pick: Austria +1 AH (Asian Handicap);[/B]

Poland-Croatia
Croatia already qualified, will spare at least half the team but this doesn't mean they will give the game away as the substitutes will try to show coach Billic they can make the 1st team.
Still, all the pressure to win is on the other side (Poland) and after they let the previous game slip away in an injury time penalty they will go "all in" on this one in order to have a chance of qualifying.
[B]My pick: Poland 0 AH (Asian Handicap);[/B]

Good luck!

JC[/quote]

1. Push

2. lost and for the first time in this competition I feel my analysis/prediction was off regardless of the outcome.
Poland didn't play with any sense of urgency, considering they were playing "a final", and Croatia were the better team for 75m. I also do not understand why Poland coach LB left their best player Smolarek sitting in the bench only to bring him in after the 55th minute (and what a difference in the team once he came in).



JC

[tougher than the rest]

[quote=tougher than the rest;1111654]Some shocking odds for Croatia to beat Poland in the last round of Gruop B (e.g. Expekt offers 3.0). There is more than a gap in quality of both teams, the spirit in Polish team is low and even Beenhakker, who used to show how optimistic he is, said that he did not believe we have a chance to reach QF.
Of course I don't expect Croatia to push hard for three points but Poland is soooo weak in the midfield and in the defence that even if Croatia plays with its second choice of players they definitely should have a number of opportunities to beat The Holy Goalie. I rate this game to be 15-35-50 in favour of Croatia, hence a huge value bet with this odds. Also Croatia not to lose at 1.60 appeals and this is truly a banker IMHO [/quote]


I'm really depressed because of our national team and the accuracy of my prediction. I wish I was wrong but life goes on and the money on my betting account will help me to ease my worries about our quit