Group B

[Carl Hayes]

I agree with David.

[budda1312]

Croatia looking a bit flat up front now, might take a shot at Poland to qualify...

wonder if it's a smoke screen or the bubble has burst having thrashed England... maybe missing Edouardo is too much

damn, so many questions

[shevahas]

1.Germany
2.Croatia %66 & Poland %34
4.Austria

[WHUPUNTER]

Have already said in other threads on PL, have had a big bet on Croatia to beat Austria on Sunday. This is the standout bet for me in all of the group stage. Cant see Austria getting anything out of the game as they are a shockingly bad side and Croatia are here because they deserve to be (winning 9 out of 12 in qualifying) so a must bet.

[Youssef]

[B]Tip Detail[/B]

SportFootball (Internationals) EventGroup B Straight Forecast SelectionGermany 1st, Austria 2nd Strength5/10 Date16/06/2008 Bookmaker/Price[URL="http://www.sports-punter.com/link.php?p=bet365"][COLOR=#0000ff]Bet365 [/COLOR][/URL]@ 9.00 (Back) ReasoningI take it for granted that Germany will top group B. I know the Germans have not won a single game in the last 2 editions of these finals, losing 3 and drawing 3, thus eliminated from their group stage in both Portugal 2004, and Holland/Belgium 2000, but I cannot see a worthy opposition to stop the Germans this time.

Croatia for example have lost Eduardo to a long-term injury, and they haven’t been the same since. 4 friendlies in 2008 produced a mere 1-0 win over Moldova, while they drew 1-1 to Scotland and Hungary, and lost 0-3 to Holland. They have been generally pretty poor without Eduardo, and cannot win a game IMHO.

Poland could have an outsider chance only because they know how to play the Germans (remember the last WC in Germany, when the Manshaft needed a last gasp goal to secure the 3 points through a 1-0 win?), but they only qualified to the finals because everyone else in their group were equally as bad, what with Serbia losing to Kazakhstan and drawing to Armenia, Finland losing to Azerbaijan and drawing also to Armenia, Plus both Serbia and Finland drawing twice each against Portugal and once against each other, thus everyone throwing away points in Poland’s favour.

In fact, Poland themselves lost to Finland at home, and followed that by a home draw to Serbia, but a win over Portugal made sure these earlier disappointing results were balanced, and eventhough Poland lost to Armenia towards the end of the qualifiers, Serbia’s surprise loss to Belgium followed by a draw to Finland, with Poland drawing at Lisbon in what would be one of the strangest games I’ve ever seen, still let the Poles off the hook and got them into the finals.

But let’s face it, Poland are as poor as they were in Germany 2006, and wins over the Czech Republic, Albania, Estonia and Finland in friendlies held in 2008 won’t hide it. They also drew to Macedonia and lost 0-3 to the USA.

The one team that remains then in Austria, whom maybe too weak to stop the Germans, but could be good enough to beat both Croatia and Poland.

In their latest friendly fixture, Austria proved to be quite ready for the event, beating Malta by 5-1. Before that they drew 1-1 to Nigeria, and before that barely lost 3-4 to Holland after going 3-0 up. They obviously can’t defend well, but they sure can score goals. The 1st of their friendlies in 2008 was a 0-3 reverse to Germany though.

Amongst their impressive results towards the end of 2007 was a 3-2 win over Cote d’Ivoire, which –along with the loss to Holland- shows they can occasionally play well, but probably are not consistent even within the same game.

The H2H records don’t look good though, as –for example- there’s only one (friendly) game on record between Austria and Croatia, and it ended 4-1 for Croatia, while the last time they were drawn with Poland it was in Germany 2006 qualifiers and the Poles won both games.

The problem with Austia is they have almost no high profile player than can turnm the match their way at any given time. The most established of their player could be Boro’s Pogatetz, Napoli’s Garics, Bremen’s Harnik, Braga’s Linz and Panathinaikos’ Ivanschitz (captain).

Still, I’m convinced that they are –at least- on an equal start point with both Poland and Croatia, with a slight advantage being at home, thus the value is on them –of the 3- to qualify after Germany, and even more with William Hill considering BetFair go only 10 (9/1) on that market, while Bet365 have priced it at 9 (8/1). My choice for the tip is Bet365 though as the net win would be 40 units vs 33 with William Hill due to staking limitations on Sports-Punter

[Andraz85]

Austria v Croatia under 2,5 1,85 6/10 interwetten

60-40 for me this bet. Croatia is different team without Eduardo. They playing like France (very good defensive but bad attack). Austria is outsider but they are on home ground. I think it will be 1:1 resultat...

[WoodyTHFC]

Germany first Croatia second 7/4 7.5 pts Germany as I have already highlighted look strong and I believe Croatia are clear of the rest to join them. indeed some might say they are decent things to upset Germany but Im not too sure about that and remember they are missing one of their main men in eduardo who they will miss depite Modric's brilliance [IMG]http://www.punterslounge.com/forum/../../images/smilies/wink2.gif[/IMG] Even if Germany dont beat Croatia they play Austria last so the possibility of a thrashing if required to get them through on top should be a benefit. Austria despite being at home look lacking and their odds indicate that and Poland rarely get round one round at major championships in recent years. Germany to beat Croatia for me.

[sagalout31]

Austria V [B]Croatia 1.96 (BetDaq)[/B]

I was going to leave this alone but simply cannot resist Croatia at this price. Backing against one of the host nations in a major tournament is normally a no go zone for me, however I just don't see Austria getting the partizan support you would expect for such a game. For the last 13 months the hosts have been playing nothing but friendlies, over this period they 'boast' a record of P13 W2 D5 L6..... It's worth noting 12 of these were played in Austria. There last victory was in their final warm up game a few days ago against Malta 5-1.

In terms of FIFA Rankings they sit in 92nd place below New zealand & Guatemala and 1 place above Thailand. I know strange things can happen in tournament football but even with Austria benefiting from home support, I give Bilics side a 65% chance, nearly Even money represents good value.

[JCtips]

My bets for Sunday:

Austria-Croatia
Miracles do happen but unless a miracle happens Austria will be packing their bags after the group stage and go (or is it stay?) home.
They were not present in any of the last 3 Euro Final stage competitions, they rank 92nd in the FIFA ranking (evidence that they're a poor team) and even Austrians joke about them being the tournament.
They have one or two interesting players like striker Roland Linz from Braga but that's about it.
Croatia is a good team (much better than Austria) with a lot more experience at this level as they reached the quarter finals in 1996 and also participated in 2004.
They had a very good run in the Qualifying stages and despite the absence of Arsenal's striker Eduardo they can surely beat Austria in their home ground.
At this price (1.95) it surely looks like a "value" bet for me.
[B]My pick: Croatia -0.5 AH (Asian Handicap);[/B]

Germany-Poland
Interesting game this one.
Germany won the 1996 Euro in England but after that they have not won a single game both in 2000 and in 2004 group stages...this makes them the top team in the competition with the longest winless streak despite being the ones with the most Euro titles (3 in total)...funny thing.
German team is strong but a few players had a poor season and the centre defenders are slow and not up to the rest of the team which might cause them problems.
Poland never beat Germany before according to my records but they surely had a great Qualifying campaign, have some very good players and "old fox" coach Leo Beenhakker (a great coach IMO) surely has them playing like a team and a hard one to beat.
Last 3 official games between these teams were unders with a 0-0 draw and two Germany victories by 1-0.
I see the Germans as favorites but will not jump on their bandwagon.
[B]My pick: Poland +1,25 AH (Asian Handicap);[/B]

Good luck!

JC

[blackcrow]

[B]Croatia -1 (EH)
[/B]Austria and Croatia have met on three previous occasions, each of them friendlies, and Croatia have won all three matches, most recently on 23 May 2006 when they won 4-1 in Vienna. While Croatia are missing Eduardo up front who scored the goals to get them here, they do have a very good midfield who will create chances against the Austrians. Their is a big gulf in class between the two teams which should see Modric and Kranjcar exploit this in midfield.

[B]Germany - Poland under 2.5[/B]
Their is no love lost between these two neighbours and should be a close affair. While Germany are obvious favourites especially with their very good record agaisnt the Poles, the Poles did top the qualifying group ahead of Portugal and should not be underestimated. The last time these two teams met was in the World Cup in 2006 where it took a 91st-minute goal from substitute Oliver Neuville to seal a 1-0 victory.

With the rivalry between the two sides, look to Poland to take it to them but still ensuring they are tight at the back as the Germans do have a good strikeforce in KLose and Podolski. There is alot of expectations that this will be an easy German win but I wouldn't be surprised if this ends in a draw so the under is a safer bet

[Crazy North]

[B]Sport Football (Internationals) [/B]
[B]EventCroatia-Austria [/B]
[B]SelectionCroatia [/B]
[B]Strength10/10 [/B]
[B]Date08/06/2008 [/B]
[B]Bookmaker/Price[/B][URL="http://www.sports-punter.com/link.php?p=paddypower"][COLOR=#0000ff][B]Paddy Power [/B][/COLOR][/URL][B]@ 1.91 (Back)[/B]

[B] Reasoning[/B]

Here i expect Croatia to win although it will not going to be an easy match as Austrians will fight but their quality is really low.Many people are saying that Austrians have home adventage but i dissagree as many Croatians will be attending today,about 40-50% of whole stadium which is quite lot.I see Croatia better in all aspects here and anything except their win here would be a suprise.Also this odds are quite good as i am pretty sure you wont see them after this match and they will be much lower when Austria face Poland or Germany.

[Crazy North]

[B]SportFootball (Internationals) [/B]
[B]EventGermany-Poland [/B]
[B]SelectionGermany [/B]
[B]Strength10/10 [/B]
[B]Date08/06/2008 [/B]
[B]Bookmaker/Price[/B][URL="http://www.sports-punter.com/link.php?p=expekt"][COLOR=#0000ff][B]Expekt [/B][/COLOR][/URL][B]@ 1.55 (Back) [/B]

[B]Reasoning[/B]

Germany here is big favourite for me as i believe they are class better than Poland and they will prove that tonight.Also Germany hasnt won a match in last two European championships so here they will big motivation to win finally as they will have big support of their fans.Listening to Ballack interview it is clear they are very motivated to win this game and i believe they will do so maybe not so easy but they will win in the end.

[tougher than the rest]

[quote=tougher than the rest;1096173]

Croatia will beat Austria and Germany but will share points with Poland (in their last, meaningless group stage match).

Germany -1 over Poland - it won't be a close affair - trust me. Both "traitors" mentioned above will take care of our defence and "Big Mac" Boruc.

Total goals for Poland in the group stage to be under 3,5 (1.75 local bookie) - well, if you believe in a thing called "sure bet" it should be your choice. To break this line we would have to score against Ger, Cro and twice against Aut. Mission impossible [/quote]

I wish I had more faith in Polish team
Podolski & Klose - both born in Poland - perfectly took control over our shaky defence and we had barely a chance upfront.

For the next match vs Austria I see a HUGE value in host's win at odds close to 3.0. I rate this game to be 45-35-20 in favour of Austria. It seems also that the bet for Poland to score under 3,5 will be a winner.

On Germany - they weren't forced to show their full potential vs Poland so it's quite hard to predict how far will they go. They may have seriuos troubles vs Croatia who defend much better than Poland did today.

[JCtips]

[quote=JCtips;1105268]My bets for Sunday:

Austria-Croatia
Miracles do happen but unless a miracle happens Austria will be packing their bags after the group stage and go (or is it stay?) home.
They were not present in any of the last 3 Euro Final stage competitions, they rank 92nd in the FIFA ranking (evidence that they're a poor team) and even Austrians joke about them being the tournament.
They have one or two interesting players like striker Roland Linz from Braga but that's about it.
Croatia is a good team (much better than Austria) with a lot more experience at this level as they reached the quarter finals in 1996 and also participated in 2004.
They had a very good run in the Qualifying stages and despite the absence of Arsenal's striker Eduardo they can surely beat Austria in their home ground.
At this price (1.95) it surely looks like a "value" bet for me.
[B]My pick: Croatia -0.5 AH (Asian Handicap); [COLOR=green]won[/COLOR][/B]

Germany-Poland
Interesting game this one.
Germany won the 1996 Euro in England but after that they have not won a single game both in 2000 and in 2004 group stages...this makes them the top team in the competition with the longest winless streak despite being the ones with the most Euro titles (3 in total)...funny thing.
German team is strong but a few players had a poor season and the centre defenders are slow and not up to the rest of the team which might cause them problems.
Poland never beat Germany before according to my records but they surely had a great Qualifying campaign, have some very good players and "old fox" coach Leo Beenhakker (a great coach IMO) surely has them playing like a team and a hard one to beat.
Last 3 official games between these teams were unders with a 0-0 draw and two Germany victories by 1-0.
I see the Germans as favorites but will not jump on their bandwagon.
[B]My pick: Poland +1,25 AH (Asian Handicap); [COLOR=red]lost[/COLOR][/B]

Good luck!

JC[/quote]

1-1-0 yesterday.



JC

[josedias]

Soccer - European Championship 2008
Austria - Poland
Pick: 1 Unit 2.30 @ Bet-at-home
12 June 19:45
Game between the two teams that had lost the first game in Group B.
This is a game of maximum importance for both, who lose automatically is moved away from the Quarter-Finals of EURO 2008.
Austria plays at home, but its limitations are well known, they are considered by all the weakker team in the Euro, and that are only present for being one of the host countries of the Euro.
Although all its fragilities, made a good game against Croatia, but are insufficient Croatia scored a goal in the first minutes and held this advantage until the final whistle.
Poland are stronger , made an excellent qualification having been in first place of their group ahead of Portugal, Serbia and Belgium.
In the first game of this Euro they had lost with one of the great favourites, powerful Germany but they had made a good game, tried to fight with Germany but defensive errors had knocked down Poland.
Austria playing at home will have a bigger support, this can be bad because it gonna create greater nervousness in the inexperienced team of Austria.
Poland will enter in this game very concentrated and determined to be successful, they have players of better quality and that are foccused in following for the Quarter-Finals.

[URL="http://apostadesonho.com.sapo.pt/BOAS%20PICKSeng.html"][/URL]

[tougher than the rest]

[quote=josedias;1107724]Soccer - European Championship 2008
Austria - Poland
Pick: 1 Unit 2.30 @ Bet-at-home
12 June 19:45

Poland will enter in this game very concentrated and determined to be successful, they have players of better quality and that are foccused in following for the Quarter-Finals.

[/quote]

The quality is on the Polish side but hosts can easily offset the skills gap
with their remarkable determination. I don't expect Poland to perform much better than Croatia did. Hence Austria is going to pull off at least a point from this game. A draw seems to be a reasonable call

[nicko]

Poland imo has more determination and discipline than Croatia, physically they are excellent. Add to that some great names in the squad plus a good manager and I can't see beyond a win by the Poles vs Austria. In fact I won't be surprised if they beat higher handicaps, it's not that I am not happy with the odds for a straight win
Losing to Germany was expected, a bit of a worry is that the Germans on few occasions could easily beat the offside trap. On the other hand the Poles managed to create, both when they were 1-0, and later 2-0 down, and the chances they had were no accident at all, vs a German defence who performed better than I expected.
A win by Poland will be my main bet for the next 2 days.

[JCtips]

My picks for Thursday:

Croatia-Germany
It should be a very interesting game this one.
Croatia scored early against Austria and just defended the rest of the game getting away with a win.
Germany showed great form against Poland (nice team play with great dynamics and fast ball movement) and will surely be looking at keeping the momentum going. A win here would almost surely mean they would avoid Portugal in the quarter-finals.
Germany is the favourite here but Croatia cannot be underestimated as they have many quality players.
Both teams scored in 8 of their last 10 games, both teams have plenty of players that can surely score (Klasnic, Olic, Kranjcar and Modric for Croatia and Klose, Gomez, Podolski and Ballack among others for Germany).
As IMO the odd is a bit low for a German victory, I'll take the "over 2 goals" as the price seems like a nice one to me at 1.78.
[B]My pick: >2;[/B]

Austria-Poland
Austria has a lot of will and determination but they're surely the worst team in the tournament and that showed IMO in their previous game against Croatia.
They use an old "kick and rush" type of play with a 3-2-3-2 formation (only team using only 3 defenders in the tournament) in which the offensive midfield trio gets close to the attacking duo everytime the ball gets kicked forward.
On the other side we have a Polish team that had a great qualifying campaign but that sucked in their 1st game against Germany, during which they were completly outplayed, made some huge defensive mistakes and also Euzebius Smolarek (their best player IMO) was a complete "zero" (the German defense never let him get into the game).
Poland is also the team in Euro 2008 that conceded more goals during the qualifying stage (a total of 12 in 14 games).
I see value in taking the "over 2" (1.89) again as I expect several goals in this match and will also bet that Smolarek will be the "man of the match" (odd at 8.00) as he'll have a lot more space for his plays tomorrow and will look at bouncing back from the poor performance in the previous match.
[B]My picks: >2 and Smolarek "Man of the Match";[/B]

Good luck!

JC

[boyd]

Austria v Poland

After seeing the previous meetings between the two sides i am going for over 2.5 goals as my main bet at 13/8 on betfair and a small bet on over 3.5 goals at 5.3 on betfair. Both teams will know that they have to win to stand any chance of qualifying for the knockout stages which could lead to an open game. I don't think the outcome of Germany and Croatia will really affect the way Austria and Poland will need to play their game, as i think neither can settle for a draw. Poland did very well in qualifying for the tournament and after their bad start against Germany in first half hour, did start to play better and should create many chances against Austria, while Austria will try to put in a committed performance in front of their fans and look to create against a team they realistically only have any chance of taking any points from in the group.

Poland have scored three goals against Austria in three of the last four games, including two victories in world cup 2006 qualifiers 3-1 and 3-2 so i feel there could be another goal feast, hopefully anyway!!!

[JCtips]

[quote=JCtips;1110163]My picks for Thursday:

Croatia-Germany
It should be a very interesting game this one.
Croatia scored early against Austria and just defended the rest of the game getting away with a win.
Germany showed great form against Poland (nice team play with great dynamics and fast ball movement) and will surely be looking at keeping the momentum going. A win here would almost surely mean they would avoid Portugal in the quarter-finals.
Germany is the favourite here but Croatia cannot be underestimated as they have many quality players.
Both teams scored in 8 of their last 10 games, both teams have plenty of players that can surely score (Klasnic, Olic, Kranjcar and Modric for Croatia and Klose, Gomez, Podolski and Ballack among others for Germany).
As IMO the odd is a bit low for a German victory, I'll take the "over 2 goals" as the price seems like a nice one to me at 1.78.
[B]My pick: >2; [COLOR=green]won[/COLOR][/B]

Austria-Poland
Austria has a lot of will and determination but they're surely the worst team in the tournament and that showed IMO in their previous game against Croatia.
They use an old "kick and rush" type of play with a 3-2-3-2 formation (only team using only 3 defenders in the tournament) in which the offensive midfield trio gets close to the attacking duo everytime the ball gets kicked forward.
On the other side we have a Polish team that had a great qualifying campaign but that sucked in their 1st game against Germany, during which they were completly outplayed, made some huge defensive mistakes and also Euzebius Smolarek (their best player IMO) was a complete "zero" (the German defense never let him get into the game).
Poland is also the team in Euro 2008 that conceded more goals during the qualifying stage (a total of 12 in 14 games).
I see value in taking the "over 2" (1.89) again as I expect several goals in this match and will also bet that Smolarek will be the "man of the match" (odd at 8.00) as he'll have a lot more space for his plays tomorrow and will look at bouncing back from the poor performance in the previous match.
[B]My picks: >2 and Smolarek "Man of the Match"; [COLOR=blue]push[/COLOR]&[COLOR=red]lost[/COLOR][/B]

Good luck!

JC[/quote]

Not a bad day yesterday considering what happened.



JC