Group A

[boyd]

[quote=Broken;1109981]You and me both mate- except mine is in a treble with: 1st Ger 2nd Cro; 1st Spa 2nd Swe; £8.50 @ 69-1 so its very, very, very, very important to me that the Czechs go through lol!

For what its worth, the co-efficients:

Turkey: 3.91
Czechs: 5[/quote]

That is a different coeffiecient total to the one that i've been looking at, here's the one i've used: -

Ranking and coefficients for all 16 teams when applying criteria (f) :
[B][I] 1. 2.417 - Holland [/I][/B]
[B][I] 2. 2.409 - Croatia [/I][/B]
[B][I] 3. 2.364 - Italy [/I][/B]
[B][I] 4. 2.333 - Czech Republic [/I][/B]
[B][I] 5. 2.273 - Sweden [/I][/B]
[B][I] 6. 2.250 - Romania [/I][/B]
[B][I] 6. 2.250 - Germany [/I][/B]
[B][I] 8. 2.192 - Portugal [/I][/B]
[B][I] 9. 2.182 - Spain [/I][/B]
[B][I] 10. 2.167 - Greece [/I][/B]
[B][I] 10. 2.167 - Poland [/I][/B]
[B][I] 12. 2.091 - France [/I][/B]
[B][I] 13. 1.958 - Russia [/I][/B]
[B][I] 13. 1.958 - Turkey [/I][/B]
[B][I] 15. 1.800 - Switzerland [/I][/B]
[B][I] 16. 1.500 - Austria[/I] [/B]

[Broken]

[quote=boyd;1110046]It definitely wont go to penalties after the group game if it is a joke. Someone is having a laugh with the Turkish public if that is what was said. [/quote]

Well Im not being funny mate but I assume you got those rules from an official uefa source, providing you did then talk of penalties is a load of crap! Im just concerned there has been no official confirmation yet, would have thought the bbc would have said something when they showed the group table. Will feel safer when its in black and white, if only to put us punters out of our misery!

[Broken]

[quote=boyd;1110051]That is a different coeffiecient total to the one that i've been looking at, here's the one i've used: -

Ranking and coefficients for all 16 teams when applying criteria (f) :
[B][I]1. 2.417 - Holland [/I][/B]
[B][I]2. 2.409 - Croatia [/I][/B]
[B][I]3. 2.364 - Italy [/I][/B]
[B][I]4. 2.333 - Czech Republic [/I][/B]
[B][I]5. 2.273 - Sweden [/I][/B]
[B][I]6. 2.250 - Romania [/I][/B]
[B][I]6. 2.250 - Germany [/I][/B]
[B][I]8. 2.192 - Portugal [/I][/B]
[B][I]9. 2.182 - Spain [/I][/B]
[B][I]10. 2.167 - Greece [/I][/B]
[B][I]10. 2.167 - Poland [/I][/B]
[B][I]12. 2.091 - France [/I][/B]
[B][I]13. 1.958 - Russia [/I][/B]
[B][I]13. 1.958 - Turkey [/I][/B]
[B][I]15. 1.800 - Switzerland [/I][/B]
[B][I]16. 1.500 - Austria[/I] [/B][/quote]

Aah right! I took points divided by games for wc'06 and euro'08 qualifying and added them together. Either way, the Czechs are up there and thats the main thing!

[Broken]

Oh arse! According to the link below, co-efficient is only used if its a tie if the teams played each other earlier, in this case as the match will have just finished they will be in a position to take penalties and as result it will be decided that way. I cant say Ive ever seen a group decided by penalty shoot-out, pretty bizarre really. I hope the Czechs can do it in the 90 minutes but all of a sudden Im not so confident!

[URL="http://www.uefa.com/newsfiles/19079.pdf"][COLOR=#800080]http://www.uefa.com/newsfiles/19079.pdf[/COLOR][/URL]

[JCtips]

[quote=JCtips;1109259]My bets for Wednesday:

Czech Republic-Portugal
The Czech Republic was far from impressive in the 1st match against the hosts Switzerland. They defended very well which is not a surprise as they have a great keeper and great defenders but in midfield they surely lacked class and quality with the absence of Nedved and Rosicky and were never dangerous upfront.
Tomorrow it is obvious to predict that they will play for the draw as that would almost guarantee them the qualification to the quarter-finals.
Portugal played very well against Turkey and they will be looking at keeping the momentum going. Also, I'm sure they'll play to win as they want to finish top of the group, keep the pressure off the 3rd game and also avoid Germany for as long as possible in the next stages of the tournament and by finishing 1st in the group, most likely, they will only meet in the semi-finals.
[B]My pick: Portugal to win;[/B]

Switzerland-Turkey
This should be an interesting and maybe even very tense game after what happened in the qualification for the last World Cup between these two nations/teams.
The tournament hosts played with their hearts in their 1st group game but IMO they lack class and the injury of top striker Frei also didn't help.
They will give it another shot tomorrow but their issues remain the same (lack of class and Frei is missing due to injury).
Turkey had a bad game against Portugal and were completly overplayed.
They are a better and more experienced team than the hosts and will try to get something from this game.
Home advantage on one side, better quality (on paper) on the other...it looks like a draw to me and at 3.42 I see it as a value bet.
[B]My pick: draw;[/B]

Good luck!

JC[/quote]

1. won
2. lost

Gotta tell you guys, I'm still recovering from the shock I got with the 2nd Turkish goal 3 minutes into injury time ...with the odd a 3.42 (US +242)...I do think it was unfair on the Swiss and on me ...but that's life and tomorrow is another day.

Good result for Portugal but I have to admit the Czech had a very good 1st half surprising everyone with the way they played (putting high pressure instead of just sitting at the back as expected).
In the 2nd half things got back to what can be considered as normal and Portugal took over the game.

Current Euro record 7-4-1.



JC

[JCtips]

[quote=boyd;1109944]Portugal have won the group but who goes through if Czech Rep and Turkey draw? They are both on the same points and both scored two and conceded three. I have found a tie breaker rules for the competition and think that it may go down to coefficients where Czech Rep would go through. Am i right that it would go down to point f )?

[B]TIE-BREAKER RULES :[/B]
If two or more teams finish equal on points after all the group matches have been played, the following criteria will be applied to determine the ranking :

[I](a) Greater number of points obtained in the matches between the teams in question. [/I]
[I](b) Goal difference resulting from the matches between the teams in question (if more than two teams finish equal). [/I]
[I](c) Greater number of goals scored in the matches between the teams in question (if more than two teams finish equal). [/I]
[I](d) Goal difference in all the group matches. [/I]
[I](e) Greater number of goals scored in all the group matches. [/I]
[I](f) Coefficient of points from the last two qualifying competitions for the final rounds of the 2006 World Cup and Euro 2008 (points gained and divided by the number of matches played). [/I]
[I](g) Fair Play conduct of the teams (final tournament). [/I]
[I](h) A drawing of lots by the Organising Committee. [/I]
There is no need to apply criteria (g) & (h) at this year’s championship because the only teams with equal coefficient under criteria (f) are teams of Romania & Germany (ranked 5.), Greece & Poland (ranked 10.) and then Russia & Turkey (ranked 13.) - teams that were drawn into different groups anyway.[/quote]

Thanks for the useful info boyd !



JC

[boyd]

yeah just found it on the article, looks like it will go to penalties. First i've ever heard of a group game potentially being settled on penalties. Wouldn't surprise me if some of the players and managers didn't even know that is the way a group may be decided.

If anyone else wants to read it click on the link from broken's message and it is point 7.08!!!

[Broken]

So with that in mind how do you all reckon its gonna go? Give me some hope here! The odds on the draw are tumbling and I have a feeling the Turks are gonna win it on pens. The Czechs have been disappointing so far, Baros and Koller may still be there but the other players from their generation who have retired have taken with them the spark that made the Czechs such a great footballing side. Turkey will be on a high, especially with the manner in which they snatched a win from a draw. Personally, Im praying for more rain- lots of it!

Amazing to think that that Quaresma goal that put a bit of icing on Portugals result is the difference between the Czechs just needing a draw.

[boyd]

[quote=Broken;1110156]So with that in mind how do you all reckon its gonna go? Give me some hope here! The odds on the draw are tumbling and I have a feeling the Turks are gonna win it on pens. The Czechs have been disappointing so far, Baros and Koller may still be there but the other players from their generation who have retired have taken with them the spark that made the Czechs such a great footballing side. Turkey will be on a high, especially with the manner in which they snatched a win from a draw. Personally, Im praying for more rain- lots of it!

Amazing to think that that Quaresma goal that put a bit of icing on Portugals result is the difference between the Czechs just needing a draw.[/quote]

I'm just going to let this one go and hope that Czech Rep either win in normal time or on penalties. The straight forecast in this group isn't one of my main bets, my main one for this group was Portugal to win the group. Depending on how much you have on the only way you can really try to cover it is backing the forecast with Turkey (if you think Czech will get beat) but IMO that would take most of your profit away. With the situation being that if Czech lose they're out and if they draw they can still go out it is difficult to cover. I think Czech are the better side so i'd suggest to just hope Czech do us a favour and win.

[Broken]

[quote=boyd;1110166]I'm just going to let this one go and hope that Czech Rep either win in normal time or on penalties. The straight forecast in this group isn't one of my main bets, my main one for this group was Portugal to win the group. Depending on how much you have on the only way you can really try to cover it is backing the forecast with Turkey (if you think Czech will get beat) but IMO that would take most of your profit away. With the situation being that if Czech lose they're out and if they draw they can still go out it is difficult to cover. I think Czech are the better side so i'd suggest to just hope Czech do us a favour and win.[/quote]

Yeah agree with that, I was only looking to lay-off if it got as far as the last set og games in Group D. Its hard to cover when there is the additional outcome of a loss on penalties. Think I will just let it slide and hope the Czechs can do the business, not confident though

[boyd]

[quote=Broken;1110410]Yeah agree with that, I was only looking to lay-off if it got as far as the last set og games in Group D. Its hard to cover when there is the additional outcome of a loss on penalties. Think I will just let it slide and hope the Czechs can do the business, not confident though [/quote]

Hey Broken, it is possible to cover the bet if you bet on either the straight forecast or Turkey to qualify on betfair currently at 2.48 (6/4). I've just decided to take the rest of 2.5 that was available as a cover but will still be hoping the Czechs make it through as i'd still get a profit, whereas if Turkey go through i'll only make a slight profit. GL in whatever you decide to do, but it all has to do with what is at stake for you personally from your stake.

[Broken]

[quote=boyd;1110980]Hey Broken, it is possible to cover the bet if you bet on either the straight forecast or Turkey to qualify on betfair currently at 2.48 (6/4). I've just decided to take the rest of 2.5 that was available as a cover but will still be hoping the Czechs make it through as i'd still get a profit, whereas if Turkey go through i'll only make a slight profit. GL in whatever you decide to do, but it all has to do with what is at stake for you personally from your stake. [/quote]

Cheers mate, I would have taken you up on that Betfair tip if the unthinkable hadnt happened and Germany blew it against the Croats!

As its a treble accy with no full cover, nevermind what happens in the Czech match it looks doomed to fail as I cannot see Poland playing to win against Croatia in the hope that Austria beat Germany. In other words I think the Germany 1st, Croatia 2nd combo is now out the window

I find it a bit disappointing from a punters point of view that Beenhakker has also told the press that he believes qualification is beyond them, so my bet looks dead in the water now.

GL with your forecast I hope you werent also backing the 1: Ger, 2: Cro forecast as well!

[boyd]

[quote=Broken;1111097]Cheers mate, I would have taken you up on that Betfair tip if the unthinkable hadnt happened and Germany blew it against the Croats!

As its a treble accy with no full cover, nevermind what happens in the Czech match it looks doomed to fail as I cannot see Poland playing to win against Croatia in the hope that Austria beat Germany. In other words I think the Germany 1st, Croatia 2nd combo is now out the window

I find it a bit disappointing from a punters point of view that Beenhakker has also told the press that he believes qualification is beyond them, so my bet looks dead in the water now.

GL with your forecast I hope you werent also backing the 1: Ger, 2: Cro forecast as well![/quote]

No, group A was the only group i put a striaght forecast on but have Germany and Croatia in a dual forecast treble with Spain to win group D and Austria to come bottom of their group. Also had Austria to get 0-2 points, Portugal and Spain to win their groups in singles and then trebles involving Austria, Spain and Portugal for the number of points they get in the group, which is looking good (it's in the bets for euro 2008 section). Portugal have already won for me, need Spain to get at least two more points in their group and Austria not to beat Germany for a very nice profit.

As for Beenhakker, i think he's probably just being honest that he expects Germany get at least a point against Austria to qualify but i'd still expect Poland to give Croatia a tough game. Even if Germany win and Croatia lose they've won the group because of head-to-head of the teams.

[JCtips]

Tomorrow I'll be placing 3 bets but all in the same game (I'll stay away from the Turkey-Czech Rep. game):

Switzerland-Portugal
I guess the odds on Portugal are this high because, in theory, Portugal doesn't have to win and they're facing the home team.
Well, Scolari just said in the press conference that he will only make 5 or 6 modifications (when everybody was expecting the whole team to be changed)...I guess he'll rest Ronaldo, Nuno Gomes and a few more.
Even if he changed the whole squad, there are (great) players looking forward to have some real playing time and show they can have a place in the 1st team, like Quaresma (Porto), Nani (M. United), R. Meireles (Porto), Hugo Almeida (W. Bremen) among many others.
So, this is their chance of giving Scolari a healthy headache.

I will take these bets as I see great value considering this and also the fact that Portugal is actually playing a home game (Portugal has massive support at the stadium and on top of that Swiss people holding a ticket for this game are selling it to the Portuguese that were looking for a last minute ticket...that tells you something).
[B]My picks: Portugal PK, Portugal to win, Portugal -1AH (Asian Handicap);[/B]

Good luck!

JC

[JCtips]

[quote=JCtips;1112599]Tomorrow I'll be placing 3 bets but all in the same game (I'll stay away from the Turkey-Czech Rep. game):

Switzerland-Portugal
I guess the odds on Portugal are this high because, in theory, Portugal doesn't have to win and they're facing the home team.
Well, Scolari just said in the press conference that he will only make 5 or 6 modifications (when everybody was expecting the whole team to be changed)...I guess he'll rest Ronaldo, Nuno Gomes and a few more.
Even if he changed the whole squad, there are (great) players looking forward to have some real playing time and show they can have a place in the 1st team, like Quaresma (Porto), Nani (M. United), R. Meireles (Porto), Hugo Almeida (W. Bremen) among many others.
So, this is their chance of giving Scolari a healthy headache.

I will take these bets as I see great value considering this and also the fact that Portugal is actually playing a home game (Portugal has massive support at the stadium and on top of that Swiss people holding a ticket for this game are selling it to the Portuguese that were looking for a last minute ticket...that tells you something).
[B]My picks: Portugal PK, Portugal to win, Portugal -1AH (Asian Handicap);[/B] [COLOR=red][B]lost[/B][/COLOR]

Good luck!

JC[/quote]

First of all I apologise to all those who followed.

Ref kept the Swiss in the game in the 1st half and Portugal didn't exist in the 2nd half (all the credit to the Swiss for playing with their hearts even though there was nothoing at stake for them)...most of the substitute stars had the opportunity of their lives but underachieved last night and that's a concern for Portugal.
Still, with a "normal" ref game would be 2-0 or 3-0 at HT for Portugal and the game would have been completely different.

What worries me is that this Austrian ref is seen as one of the favorites to officiate the Euro 2008 final is Austria doesn't make it to the quarter-finals !

It is sad but true: both UEFA and FIFA are organizations with extremely well paid "jobs for the boys" that do nothing to improve the game.
While all other major sports use replays in order to help the refs make the proper decisions in case of major doubt (goal ruled out because of an offside, penalty call, etc), these Soccer rulling organizations say they won't go that way as "it would take the human factor/error out of the game"...I guess they mean that would take them out of "pulling the strings and calling the shots".
Bunch of stupid sob's IMO.

Scolari said in a TV interview after the game that he should have been smarter and know beforehand what this ref was up to and play with all the substitutes not only 7 or 8. He even told the players sitting in the bench (Ronaldo, Deco, Nuno Gomes, R. Carvalho, Petit, etc) to shut up during the game to avoid unnecessary yellow cards that would hurt them at a latter stage.
What a joke when the game comes to this point.

Just a final note: this ref called 53 fouls in a very easy to officiate game. This means it was a "whistle concert" breaking the game dynamics...
The other game of the night was a very tense one with a lot at stake and the ref called...29 fouls!!! That tells you something when you know enough about the game.

JC