Cheltenham 2008 - Ante Post bets

[bowles10]

my 1st long range bets for Cheltenham are:

Champion Chase

Dont Push it 33/1 Bet365
Granit Jack 40/1 Bet365

reasons to follow over the next few days but these 2 will be followed by me during the season.

[mowgli77]

Have only had 1 ante post bet so far on Star De Mohaison for the Gold Cup but not really sure it would run in that race anyway. Got about 30.0 on Betfair I think for a small stake.

[Hoprock]

Champion Hurdle

Afsoun 60.0
Gaspara 200.0

I've not backed these yet but they are available on Betfair at the prices shown above. I was wondering if anyone could offer any thoughts before I dive in (with my few pence !)

Afsoun was 3rd last year when all the stats will tell you that it was too young. It really seemed to take to Cheltenham and with another years maturity, the price looks too big in my opninion.

Gaspara is much more speculative but if it lines up, then the price is massive. It's a big improver and really impressed at Cheltenham last year. It strikes me as having the potential to be like Essex was a couple of years back where it improved so much that it has hammered down to about 8/1 leading upto the Festival. As with Afsoun, these are both speculative punts so far away from March but there could be plenty of opportunity to trade before then.

[bowles10]

ok have been waiting for an opportune moment to start a few more ante post cheltenham bets. Always a good time to try to pick up some decent prices (those who found Sublimity at 450/1 last year will know!)

I have what i feel is a decent yankee to keep backing each week to make a nice bet.

Voy per Ustedes (to win the QM for 2nd year) 9/2
Katchit (to win the Champion Hurdle) 7/1
Franchoek (to win the Triumph hurdle) 8/1
Denman (to win the Gold Cup) 5/1

3 of those are Alan Kings but all 3 are wirth their place & the important thing for me is they are all course winners & fit the profile for the race.

Denman must win the Henessey if he is to be as good as Kauto star was last season. I think the horse could be another star for Nicholls & Ruby will find it hard trying to pick. The strange thing is that Ruby wont be riding either on their next run due to his injury. This is my next ante post bet.

Denman to win the Hennessey @ 5/1 (dec 1st)

Onto the festival itself, I have a couple of long range bets that i will follow:

Noble Request 44.0 Arkle Chase
State of Play 120.0 Gold Cup
Desert Quest 130.0 Champion Hurdle
Labelthou 80.0 Sun Alliance Chase

Each horse above represents decent value on my book & these will be followed through the season.

[Gingertipster]

I agree about Afsoun, I have backed it at big prices for the Champion. I know it is being aimed at the World (stayed well on the flat) but at Kempton it showed plenty of pace before falling (Christmas Hurdle). It looks a poor year for the 2 milers this term so hopefully Henderson will be tempted. Also, stable companion Punjabi is over-priced around 70 or 80/1 last time I looked. Got around 6 lengths to make up on Katchit but is a much bigger type, more scope for improvement than Alan Kings horse and much bigger price too.
Did do Iktitaf aswell, hope he can be saved.

Done Wicheta Lineman at 6's for the World, further he goes the better. Feel sure Inglis will dissapoint at some time this season and drift before running well again. Blazing dissapointed this weekend.

Hope Monet's Garden does run at Cheltenham. Just because he has not won there does not mean he does not act. On this coming seasons weights he would have won the Arkle, (gave 5lbs wfa to Voy Por Ustedes) now level weights. And comes out better than Taranis (had the Grade 1 penalty) last year. This year no penalties. Running at Cheltenham does not stop him winning at Aintree anyway so why not go there?

[Gingertipster]

Have taken a chance that Well Chief will remain sound to win the Champion Chase 13/2. The way he won at Newbury last season suggests the old sparkle is there. His best is far better han the other principals. Fell early in the Champion then did not stay 2 1/2 at Aintree.

The trouble with backing ante-post for Cheltenham's chases is which race will they run in?
The Festival Chase is now a Grade 1 with added prizee money. Kicking King and War Of Attrition were both thought probable runners in a Grade 2 Festival Chase at one stage in their Gold Cup years. Would Kauto Star have risked not staying the trip in the big one if there was a valuable Grade 1 alternative? Even Best Mate in his first year was thought by some as a doubtful stayer. Some could also switch from the Champion Chase.

My Way De Solzen could run in any of the three races. So could Monet's Garden (or none), Taranis could run over 2 1/2 or 3 1/4m. Where will Don't Push It end up? Even Exotic Dancer could end up at the shorter trip if connections get fed up of chasing Kauto.

[Woodie]

My antepost bets for Cheltenham so far are

Sir Boreas Hawk @ 100/1 Champion Hurdle
Leslingtaylor @ 33/1 Arkle
Ringaroses @ 79/1 Sun Allliance

Sir Boreas Hawk - A big outsider price even bigger now he was only 2nd on his debut for the season. One of the best bumper horss from last season only had a small interest.

Leslingtaylor - Jumps well and is being aimed for the race, fell at the weekend but clearly didn't like the testing ground when giving weight all round. Should be spot on for the Arkle come March now having a break and will be out in the new year 33/1 is way to big for such a speedy horse.

Ringaroses - Trainer has thought a lot of this one won't be seen untill after xmas and will be going straight into my 10 to follow in the transfer window. Has rock solid form, 6th in aintree bumper. Last two runs have produced many many winners, is being aimed at the race hoping he makes it will be my biggest payout yet if it comes of!

[WoodyTHFC]

A few thoughts on the main four races (these could well look stupid) with one ante post bet:

World Hurdle. Blazing Bailey @ 14/1 e.w but half that price in places. On the evidence of the run on Sat you would not have it on your mind but sometimes the best time to get on is after a bad run. It was down the field and too far down the field for the lack of a run, quickish ground or the weight to be an excuse on that ocassion but I still think this one is still worth following. It is still only five and open to a lot of improvement and in truth it may not need to find that much. Third in the race last year having already beaten the winner earlier in the year on more favoured soft ground. Also there are probably some question marks as to if Inglis Drever can keep on going and how his new rider will get on as he is not straight forward and BJK has not lived up to the hype and will probably drop in trip. The dour stayer, Witchita Lineman is probably the biggest threat of the newcomers but at nearly three times the price, I am willing to take Blazing Bailey despite that disappointing run on Sat.

[mowgli77]

Had a bet on the World Hurdle, took 7's on Inglis Drever and 20's on Chief Dan George, will have a look at that Newbury race now and se what price I can get.

[WoodyTHFC]

I am taking a bit of a gamble and going for the pretty unexposed Clopf @ 25/1 e.w for the Champion Hurdle. I mentioned it earlier in the thread and it runs in the fighting fifth tomorrow. It might not win but any sort of a decent run and given a couple of preps it should be spot on, it will probably lower in price and the way it travels it might have a chance tomorrow and come March.

[WoodyTHFC]

Macs Joy @ 25/1 e.w for CH. Looking back at the post I suggested it was a weak division and I believe further in that now so if and it is a big if, Macs Joy recreates its second to Brave Inca in 2006 I think it goes extremely close and probably wins. Obviously it does not work like that but even still a price is being offered. It actually is running over further today but I do not think that this is meaning it is moving up further in trip by Cheltenham as Hardy Eustace say is. Hoping for a decent run today.

[bowles10]

There is a horse running at Exeter tomorrow called Master Minded. You wont know the horse as its a french import into Nicholls stable & owned by the now legendary Clive Smith (Kauto Star). The race only has 4 runners & i am sure it will start very short.

They think this one could go to the very top & at 4yo could even enter the QM chase at Cheltenham (i took 80.0 last night). This is good information from the people that own the horse, however to win a race of that magnitude would take some doing for a horse not seen on a British racecourse yet.

for a sound debut tomorrow, but this could be worth following for a few seasons to come especially after the owners success with Kauto star.

[WoodyTHFC]

Ante Post Royal and Sun Alliance Chase

Mark the Book @ 33/1Really looking forward to this one's chasing debut and I gave it serious thought for the TTTF and it could well be a future star for Hobbs. Ran second on hurdle debut but then put up two very impressive wins before blowing out having travelled at short odds on its start. Possibly it was just put out too soon that time having won earlier in the month. Taking a chance on ho wit will jump but Hobbs' are not normally sloppy and trip no real problem. Speculating but if all goes well it could be a real contender for Cheltenham in maybe the RSA 33/1, not sure they will go Arkle. So will have 7.5 pts e.w @ 33/1 ahead of its start today, a gamble but worth it for a smallish stake at those odds. Tidal Bay who is in my TTTF, is a market leader but it is still not certain as if it will go RSA or Arkle.

[jcosgrove]

Antepost - Champion Hurdle

Aitmatov 30/1 betfair

I think this horse looks real quality, the race he won at fairyhouse is looking as though it could be good form with Sweet Kiln & Glencove Marina in behind.
On paper he has beaten Sizing Europe but SE was very unlucky when travelling like the winner. With this being such an open market, I think this is a great price.

[bowles10]

just sticking one in here for my old man who comes up with a few for Cheltenham using his methods. He thinks like the rest of us that the Champion hurdle is wide open this year & that EBAZIYAN could be the one to come good on the day.

I have looked at its form & conclude:

Hurdles career is 2/24, 1/18, 1/22, 8/9, 4/7, 5/7, 3/8, 4/6

Interestingly its form in small fields isnt as good as that in a larger field. It won at Cheltenham festival last season beating GRanit Jack & Amaretto Rose in the Supreme Novices hurdle. Any hurdle win at the track in previous year is a pointer to at least a place at the following festival so certainly 33/1 currently looks decent for an ew bet. I was not put off by its 4th place in the hurdle race last week in Ireland as they always seem to race up each other's backsides in Ireland & i find the horses that act at Cheltenham will do so again irrespective of how it ran earlier in the season.

[bowles10]

There are only about 9 weeks to Cheltenham. I have published my horses in my thread today (there will be more but these are the ones i have backed so far this year).

I am now looking at backing the following in these races, wherever Tidal Bay runs it will start favourite so just thinking of getting some value now:

Arkle
Tidal Bay 8/1
awaiting plans for Hobbs Hill, Lead on & Skys the limit

Champion Hurdle
Katchit 10/1
Ebaziyan 33/1

R&SA chase
Lead on 25/1
Tidal Bay 10/1

World Hurdle
Wichita Lineman 6/1 (on target for race this year)

Triumph Hurdle
Franchoek 6/1 (already backed & advised 9/1)

[bowles10]

From my jumps thread, this is where i stand currently on Cheltenham. I will no doubt add some horses along the way.

Horse Name	Race	Best Price	Bookie	Price taken
Ashley Brook	Champion Chase	37.0	Betfair
Tidal Bay	Arkle Chase / R&SA Chase	9.00 / 11.00	Hills / Tote
State of Play	Gold Cup	67.00	Tote	120.00
Snap Tie	Ballymore Nov Hdle	26.00	Tote
Franchoek	Triumph Hurdle	7.00	Ladbrokes	9.00
Vodka Bleu
Lead on	R&SA Chase	26.00	Skybet
Halcon Generlardais	Gold Cup	67.00	Hills
Inglis Drever	World Hurdle	3.00	Hills
Denman	Gold Cup	3.00	Ladbrokes	6.00
Katchit	Champion Hurdle	11.00	Ladbrokes	8.00
Sky’s the Limit
The Listener	Ryanair / Gold Cup	11.00 / 41.00	Bet365 / Hills
Kauto Star	Gold Cup	2.5	Corals	<