Weekend CAN qualifiers

[Youssef]

1st, no precise times included because half of them games get delayed anyway!

However, I will try to give some info for every game (ordered by groups) for those interested.

Group 1:

Gabon V Cote d'Ivoire

This is the final game of the group (of 3 teams)
The Ivoirians have qualified. Gabon would need tobeat them by 6 to replace them at the top!!!

Considering the situation stated above, and as the game is played in Gabon.. and I'm not even sure if the Ivoirians will field their 1st team I'd rather a NO BET

Group 2:

Burundi V Egypt

Theoritically speaking the group is still open for all possibilities, with Egypt atop at the moment with 8 pts (from 4 games), Botswana 2nd (7 pts from 5 games), Burundi (6 from 4) and Mauritania (4 from 5).

However, let's note that Egypt has not lost. They won 2 at home and drew 2 on the road, and their last game is at home vs. Botswana, which is to say 3 points in the bag already.

Burundi will go to Mauritania in their last game of the group, so they will still have a good chance of collecting 3 more points, but it won't help much if they lose to Egypt. (3 best runner-ups qualify from the 4-squad groups)

Burundi has an artificial pitch (just as was the case against Mauritania), so I wouldn't back Egypt to win, especially when I know they rarely ever do win on the road anyway (and rarely ever lose at home).

However, there's a 40% chance of an Egyptian win this time, because Mido is the main striker (but if Met'eb plays alongside him I wouldn't be too relieved).

At a price just below evens, and with 3+ odds on the draw I think it's a good idea to back Egypt to win and cover the draw to win back the stakes on the win if it does end in a draw.

P.S. This is the only grou, along with grou 9 that will NOT finsih this weekend. Final round is scheduled to be played on 12-Oct.

Group 3:

Uganda V Niger
Nigeria V Lesotho

Nigeria qualified already with 12 points. Both Niger and Lesotho are on 4 points, so they are officially eliminated. Uganda needs the 3 points to have a decent shot at a best runner-up ticket, and considering they play at home against a very poor Niger squad they should have no problem collecting them 3 points.

But Nigeria @ 1.10 is way too slim for a team that doesn't need ANYTHING from this game. For all I know this is no more than an "official friendly" to them, and I wouldn't touch them at this price.

Group 4:

Mauritius V Seychelles
Sudan V Tunisia

Both Tunisia & Sudan are officially qualified (Tunisia has 13 points, Sudan have 12, which means no other runner-up can catch up with either).

Still, Sudan lost by 0-1 in Tunisia, and they woukld love to get their revenge here. They are VERY much improved of late either on the International squad or at the continental clubs competition, and there's no better evidence than stating that the league winner "Hilal" is playing in the Afriocan CL semi-final, and are unbeaten at home for 92 successive games 9domestic and continental) which is 6+ years unbeaten at home. Their last win at home came over Al-Ahli (Egypt) by a stunning 3-0.

Marriekh (domestic league runner-up) have the best chance in their group to play the final of the confederations championship (the equivalent of the UEFA Cup).

I'm surprised though to see Sudan as favourites to win the game and I would rather bet on a draw, or a double chance as the Tunisians are infamously known for their strategy of wasting time and killing the game by faking injuries all through the 90 minutes when they need to keep the scoreline as it is.

No need to mention the other game is meaningless and is an oficial frienly at best for both Mauritius & Seychelles (in preparation for the WC 2010 qualifiers that will kick off in October), so it's best left alone.

Group 5:

Rwanda V Liberia
Equatorial Guinea V Cameroon

Cameroun qualified with 15 points (won all 5 games so far), while Eq. Guinea have a very slim shot at a best runner-up ticket IF they manage a win here, which is very unlikey IMHO.

Cameroon to win @ 1.70 is a good value.

Rwnada (3 pts) & Liberia (4 pts) are officially knocked-out and should use this game as a preparation friendly. No Bet.

Group 6:

Kenya V Angola
Swaziland V Eritrea

As in most groups.. Angola is officially qualified with 13 points bagged already, while Eritrea need the 3 points to reach 11 and stand a decent chance to qualify as a best runner-up.

Kenya surprisingly poor in these qualifications and should lose to Angola even if the Angolans don't really need a win, but they certainly want to get a better ranking in the FIFA list.

2.20 is a HUGE price on Angola, considering Kenya's 4 points came from a win at home over Swaziland, and a drawin Swaziland.

Kenya scored 4 in their 5 played games and conceded 6, while Angola scored 15 and concede only 3, so I think it's well worth at least 5 points to back Angola.

As for Eritrea, they "should" win, but they only managed a draw at home against Swaziland (0-0) so I wouldn't be so sure. However, if they can't win here they're eliminated, so you make up your mind about this one. No Bet for me.

Group 7:

Tanzania V Mozambique
Senegal V Burkino Faso

Unlike most groups, this one is tight with 3 squad still "theoritically" competing for qualification.

However, Senegal with 8 points (+5 goals) top the group and a win at home over already eleminated Burkina should guarantee them 1st spot, while Tanzania (also 8 points, -2 goals) need the points at home to stand any chance of grabbing a best runner-up ticket.

Mozambique will need a miracle to qualify as even if the win (reach 9 oints) they will still be short of a best runner-up ticket, so they will need to win by 4 goals and hope that Senegal LOSE at home, which is simply an impossible situation.

So, we have 2 home wins on this group, but only Tanzania is worth a shot at 1.65, while Senegal's 1.15 is only good for combos.

Group 8:

Gambia V Algeria
Guinea V Cape Verde

Picture this: Guinea at 8 points (+3 goals), Algeria at 8 points (+1 goals), Gambia at 5 points (-1 goals) & Cape Verde at 5 points (-3 goals).
Guinea at home "should" be a banker, but Cape verde aren't exactly the team to take a beating, even if they are virtually eliminated and would need a miracle ( a win by 3+ in Guinea??)

The other game is VERY tricky. Algeria are making a strong come back (overall), no denying that.. but Gambia are at home and they only lost by 1 in Algeria, and managed 2 away raws in their last 2 games 92-2 in Guinea & 0-0 in Cape Verde).

Algeria on the other hand lost at home to Guinea (0-2) the last time out, and are generally unpredictable.

The situation is a bit complicated for this game and I would rather not bet on it.

In fact, I'd skip BOTH games of this group. (Guinea @ 1.15 does not interest me at all)

Group 9:

Final round postponed (12-Oct)

Group 10:

Ethiopia V Namibia
DR Congo V Libya

The most inetersting (i.e. complicated) of all groups. DR Congo at 8 points (+2), Libya at 7 points (+1), Namibia at 7 (level) and Ethiopia at 6 points (-3 goals).

For starters, Ethiopia need a BIG win to stand any chance, and anything less than 5 goals is not good enough.

Namibia just nee ANY win at all, provided that DR Congo draw to Lybia (i.e. neither wins 3 points).

DR Congo need w in to guarantee the top spot, but would settle for a draw if Namibia doesn't win, while Libya need any win at all to start with, but also at least equal to Namibia's (if Namibia win).

The logical conslusion of 2 home wins is likel, but neither even comes close to being a good bet at these odds (DR Congo @ 1.60, Ethiopia @ 1.75)

I'd consider a double chance (H-A) in the DR Congo V Libya game, except I can't trust Ethiopia not lose at home either.

All in all... there are better games to bet on, so I'll steer away from these two games for safety.

Group 11:

Chad V Congo
South Africa V Zambia

Chad V Congo is meaningless and should not be considered at all.
South Africa have the upper hand with 11 points, with Zambia at 8, and only a win for Zambia would give them any hope of qualification, and they need to win by 2 if they want to guarantee qualification through occupying the top spot.

South Africa are virtually qualified already as there are only 4 teams that can get to 11 points and finish as runner-ups in their groups, and the best of them has+3 for a goal difference, while South Africa have +8 as it is, so losing by 2 wouldn't really jeopardise their chances, but losing by 1 would be best for them as they will top the group still. Of course, that's assuming they don't want to eliminate their rivalling neighbours.

South Africa won 1-0 in zambia already, so they should be favs alright, but not to the extent of taking them at 1.45 !!! geez, they don't even need to draw, and it would work for them if they lose by 1, so why would anyone be so sure they should win??

In fact I find the 3.90 offered on the draw more apealing from a "value" point of view. They play a "local international derby" if I may say so, and they're not that much superior to Zambia either.

Group 12:

Morocco finished atop with 10 points, while Zimbabwe host Malawi for the wooden spoon trophy!

Zimbabwe's only point they got through a draw at home to Morocco, while Malawi won the reverse leg by 1-0, and I really don't see why Zimbabwe should be 1.60 when the game is meaningless at all. Certainly NO BET.

Summary:

Egypt @ 1.90 and above (5/10 stakes)
Sudan-Tunisia Draw @ 3.00 and above (3/10 stakes)
Cameroon @ 1.50 and above (7/10 stakes)
Angola @ 2.00 and above (5/10 stakes)
Tanzania @ 1.60 and above (8/10 stakes)
South Africa-Zambia Draw @ 3.50 and above (2/10 stakes)

Uganda & Senegal (each @ 1.15-1.20) to be combined with any games of your choice (either from the above selections or the Euro2008 qualifiers).

Good Luck