U-19 European Championship 24.07

[kimera]

Tuesday 24 July 2007
	Home	Draw	Away	BPP
Greece U19 v Germany U19 (16:30 BST)	4.80	4.00	1.81	102%	Related markets...Match ResultAsian HandicapCorrect Score- - -Qualify From TieDraw No BetHalf-time ResultHandicap ResultTotal Goals
Spain U19 v France (19:30 BST)	2.50	3.40	3.25	101%	Related markets...Match ResultAsian HandicapCorrect Score- - -Qualify From TieDraw No BetHalf-time ResultHandicap ResultTotal Goals

[allthethings]

Does Spain have everyone available? I am inclined to take Spain tomorrow, DNB is -145 which seems reasonable enough, but France scoring 5 goals and 1 with a man down in two of the group games makes me wonder if they're a team of destiny (lol). +125 for a straight Spain win is pretty good, too.

[kimera]

After following this competition on Eurosport I feel it is time to contribute some of my thoughts on the upcoming semi-finals tomorrow.

Germany-Greece
Both nations regarded as title contenders only Germany have shown me that their prediction should stand with them. They have played fun and attractive football the whole tourney with a lot of goals and chances being created.
On their way reaching the semis, these results counts:

16.07.2007	v	Russia	3-2
18.07.2007	v	France	1-1
21.07.2007	v	Serbia	3-2

Watched the last match against Serbia. The Serbs took the lead after 2` played, then Germany created a lot of chances with their two strikers, Özil and Tyrala really making the Serbia work as they never have been before. Özil has only made 2 goals so far in the group phase, but his ability to create havoc in the opposition defence made me smile each time. A striker of my type, constantly working and stressing the centre-backs. In midfield they have one player who has impressed me, Anis Ben-Hatira. His offensive skills with pushing forward with and without the ball has been relentless. Almost everytime the strikers have gotten a long ball to work on, he hasn`t been far away. I know I am bragging somewhat now, but I have seen some footy through the years and seeing youngsters playing their shirts off do appeal me. If there is a negative part which is worth mentioning it would have to be the defensive part. The german wing backs tend to be extremely offensive. Daniel Schwaab, right-back, often finishes his forward runs too far in the opposite half making his side open for counters. That applies to both wingbacks though, but he is definitely the most offensive comparing them. Germany, which many of us fans consider as a "machine" that works in whole, does not appear like the traditional German style. They tend much more to individuality that I have ever seen before in a squad from this nation. Tomorrow they have five players who will be on so-called late fitness tests. Goalie Mannel, wingbacks Howiedes and mentioned Schwaab, centre-back Falkenberg and striker Tyrala. My guess is that at least four of them will participate. This being a so far career highlight for them, it would be serious to keep them out of the match. They all played in the match against Serbia, except Scwaab who was benched.

I overviewed the ridicoulous last match between Greece and Spain. Both teams would qualify with a draw, as expected it ended 0-0, and with 15 minutes remaining the Spain defence played five-a-side in approx. 8 minutes where the greeks only stood watching. They had one chance in the game, that actually ended in a penalty which the spanish goalie, Ramos, saved brilliantly. Well, the match can`t be taken in consideration, but it gives a somewhat blurry picture how the greeks want to play. When Germany rely of getting the ball forward fast with runs coming from all sides Greece want to get the whole team behind before heading forward. No errors defensively are first option. Their results so far reflect their way of playing:

16.07.2007	v	Portugal	1-0
18.07.2007	v	Austria	1-1
21.07.2007	v	Spain	0-0

Players worth mentioning on the Greek side are midfielders Mitroglu (has scored both greek goals so far, and missed the penalty against Spain) and Ninis. They have both been the creative force behind their attacks and should be watched closely tomorrow. So far in the tourney they have lost their starting goalie Androustos (broken finger), don`t know the exact status on the rest og the squad, will have to get more info tomorrow.

Reading about Germans confidence before the semis tomorrow. Normally confidence when players are so young it might lead to an overconfidence which possibly can bend the wrong way. Still I believe if the team perform as they have so far they will beat Greece. When Mathias Sammer, sport director in Germany, are flying down to give them a boost they will get one. The greek squad are a talented one, no discussion about that, but the way the have played haven`t convinced me is enough to reach the finals. I predict it will be a entertaining match to follow, looking at the development in the match to come Germany will attack and Greece must try to hold their defences and counter. Seeing some goals too. With Germanys attacking attitude and not the best defence, an over strikes my mind also. I will definitely be looking at the screen when kick-off is taken, and expecting Germany to reach the final, without extra-time...

My bet:
Germany, straight win, 1.80 @betsson
Germany-Greece, over 2.5, 2.00 @betsson

Not beeing a commercial or something, but eurosport covers both the semi-finals live tomorrow...

[kimera]

Originally Posted by allthethings

Does Spain have everyone available? I am inclined to take Spain tomorrow, DNB is -145 which seems reasonable enough, but France scoring 5 goals and 1 with a man down in two of the group games makes me wonder if they're a team of destiny (lol). +125 for a straight Spain win is pretty good, too.

Writing my opinion about the match now...

[kimera]

Spain-France

Tomorrow Spain will face their toughest competitor so far in the championship. I have seen both of their last matches against Portugal and Greece. The last of them I have mentioned what needed in the previous post, an abysmal match. Against Portugal however there was only one team on the field. It ended 1-1, but i does not cover how the match went through at all. The spanish side blew away a lot of good chances. Especially Emilio and star player Aaron spoiled many chances, even if Aaron got their lone goal. Their team have high expectancy in this tournament, regarded as one of the biggest favourites for winning the whole thing. The players have been together in all recent championships earlier making in very far each time. In other words they are wll organized. Tomorrow they have the full squad at the coach disposal, every player are ready to make an effort. About their coach, Juan Sanisteban, has superb knowledge preparing the youngsters in what to come. Only three months ago he guided the spanish U-17 team to victory against Belgium. In the group phase they also met Austria, which they beat 2-0 in a slightly convincing way.
If their key players like mentioned Aaron, midfielder and captain Martinez and goalie Ramos perform as expected Spain will definitely be a tough nut to crack.

France on the other side have been involved in highly unstable matches. From beating Serbia 5-2 in the first game, with one player sent-off to playing 0-0, last match, against the worst team Russia. In the second group match they drawed 1-1 aganist Germany, a game I watched. I saw a french team which didn`t produce almost any chances before they got their equaliser in the 72`minute. Earlier Germany ruled most of the match, being ineffective though. Their defensive part looked shaky at times letting Germany have many chances to settle the score. Looking at the team news for tomorrows clash, the french will miss key midfielder Vainqeur, their topscorer Monnet-Paquet(3 goals) is doubtful and stiker Gestede are suspended. If Monne-Paquet is out France will have serious issues up front getting the goals the sorely need to make through to the final.

Thinking of the outcome on this one I can`t see France win this one if Spain play using the experience they have got. The spanish side have not played brilliantly if you compare it with the german team, but they have done what they needed to. Tomorrow I believe they will put their game up some notches and play like a winner will. With a full squad to pick from and their key players showing form it will be Spain in the final. The french team has not convinced me so far and I don`t think they have what it takes to be the finalist.

My bet:
Spain, straight win, 2.44 @betsson

[McFly]

Excellent analysis kimera! also back the german younsters

[kimera]

Originally Posted by McFly

Excellent analysis kimera! also back the german younsters

Ehh, won`t you kind of biased in this one McFly? By the way, thanks...

[allthethings]

Thanks kimera...was leaning that way, now will bite:

UEFA U-19 Semifinals
Soccer - Germany U19 - spread -½ (-135)
for the regulation time held on Jul 24 at 10:30am [pending]

Soccer - Spain U19 - spread pk (-137)
for the regulation time held on Jul 24 at 1:30pm [pending]
Soccer - Spain U19 - moneyline (+125)
for the regulation time held on Jul 24 at 1:30pm [pending]

Spain cost me in the 1-1 draw against Portugal, with two shots off the crossbar if I'm not mistaken. They really seem the better side though. I'll stay off the Germany overs...I really only like to play overs when either a) both sides have attacking ability, or b) one side is capable of a blowout. In U-19 many chances disappear, or at least they've seemed to...

BOL tomorrow

[McFly]

Originally Posted by kimera

Ehh, won`t you kind of biased in this one McFly?

yeah definately buddy, the more I'll support them!

[kimera]

Originally Posted by allthethings

Thanks kimera...was leaning that way, now will bite:

UEFA U-19 Semifinals
Soccer - Germany U19 - spread -½ (-135)
for the regulation time held on Jul 24 at 10:30am [pending]

Soccer - Spain U19 - spread pk (-137)
for the regulation time held on Jul 24 at 1:30pm [pending]
Soccer - Spain U19 - moneyline (+125)
for the regulation time held on Jul 24 at 1:30pm [pending]

Spain cost me in the 1-1 draw against Portugal, with two shots off the crossbar if I'm not mistaken. They really seem the better side though. I'll stay off the Germany overs...I really only like to play overs when either a) both sides have attacking ability, or b) one side is capable of a blowout. In U-19 many chances disappear, or at least they've seemed to...

BOL tomorrow

I see your argument on the over in the Germany match. Suspecting Greece will get one goal tomorrow and if it will be so the germans must have at least one more. The greeks have shown some dangerous free-kick abilities through the championships and I fear one will hit home. Still Germany will win this, just thinking loud some of my arguments for the over...

Best of luck to you to!

[allthethings]

Originally Posted by kimera

I see your argument on the over in the Germany match. Suspecting Greece will get one goal tomorrow and if it will be so the germans must have at least one more. The greeks have shown some dangerous free-kick abilities through the championships and I fear one will hit home. Still Germany will win this, just thinking loud some of my arguments for the over...

Best of luck to you to!

To me if you're convinced Germany will win, playing the overs also on the game means you have to be right about the result and right about the texture. That means you're doubling your exposure on the game with not a huge chance of being right twice.

I have thought a lot about this because I play mainly overs, and sometimes I play two bets on a game like this and more often one bet cancels the other...or worse, both lose.

Think about it this way...what's the only likely way you can lose the Germany bet? If it's a low-scoring game. If Greece's defense holds or Germany can't finish on its chances, as in the France game, the game will likely end under...since Germany is likely to score one certainly even in that scenario, the most likely result would be 1-1 (in which case you double your losses) or 1-0 or 2-0 perhaps (in which case you've just canceled your winner with a split).

Now ask yourself this: Can Greece score more than one goal? If the game ends 2-2, your overs bet will save you the loss from Germany drawing in regulation. If Greece wins 2-1, same thing.

I would say the high-scoring loss/draw is much more unlikely than a low-scoring draw/loss, so playing both imo is an unnecessary risk.

So for me the question is, which is more likely? Germany to win in regulation or the game to go over? The odds are better on the overs, but I think the Germany win more likely. If both teams were scorers/conceders, I'd have chosen the overs rather than the side (that's sort of my primary bet type).

But I thought I'd bring this up here because I see people take this sort of bet a lot, and I'm not sure it makes sense. On the opener of the Austrian Bundesliga a couple weks ago, I took LASK to win, then added the overs on the game because I thought it seemed like a good bet, and at the time I posted here that it was possibly "insurance" on the side bet. The game was won by LASK 1-0 in the 90th minute, and I had in essence canceled my winner...and I nearly lost two bets...not worth the risk imo.

BOL, and I hope for you the final is 2-1 Deutschland...no, make that 3-1.

[Florian]

Spain (0) to beat France at 1.80 with Bet365.

Spain has IMO the best organized team of the tournament.

They were been able to gest the first preliminar phase, holding under control Portugal and Greece without particular pain, more they have shown to have a lot of quality in their middle line, able to hold the ball's possession and to create chances to score for the upfront line.

France played a lucky debut's match against Serbia, if their recover was been impressive (from 0-2 to win by 5-2 with 1 man less than Serbia), but they suffered a lot, risking to suffer also to be trashed, before the unbelievable recover.

France have a team based over young players used to play in the lowest cathegory and I think that, in a match "knock-out", they will feel the pressure and the should allow something to the quality team of France.

[kimera]

Originally Posted by allthethings

To me if you're convinced Germany will win, playing the overs also on the game means you have to be right about the result and right about the texture. That means you're doubling your exposure on the game with not a huge chance of being right twice.

I have thought a lot about this because I play mainly overs, and sometimes I play two bets on a game like this and more often one bet cancels the other...or worse, both lose.

Think about it this way...what's the only likely way you can lose the Germany bet? If it's a low-scoring game. If Greece's defense holds or Germany can't finish on its chances, as in the France game, the game will likely end under...since Germany is likely to score one certainly even in that scenario, the most likely result would be 1-1 (in which case you double your losses) or 1-0 or 2-0 perhaps (in which case you've just canceled your winner with a split).

Now ask yourself this: Can Greece score more than one goal? If the game ends 2-2, your overs bet will save you the loss from Germany drawing in regulation. If Greece wins 2-1, same thing.

I would say the high-scoring loss/draw is much more unlikely than a low-scoring draw/loss, so playing both imo is an unnecessary risk.

So for me the question is, which is more likely? Germany to win in regulation or the game to go over? The odds are better on the overs, but I think the Germany win more likely. If both teams were scorers/conceders, I'd have chosen the overs rather than the side (that's sort of my primary bet type).

But I thought I'd bring this up here because I see people take this sort of bet a lot, and I'm not sure it makes sense. On the opener of the Austrian Bundesliga a couple weks ago, I took LASK to win, then added the overs on the game because I thought it seemed like a good bet, and at the time I posted here that it was possibly "insurance" on the side bet. The game was won by LASK 1-0 in the 90th minute, and I had in essence canceled my winner...and I nearly lost two bets...not worth the risk imo.

BOL, and I hope for you the final is 2-1 Deutschland...no, make that 3-1.

Had to get some sleep...

I do understand your way of thinking when choosing to play the over or straight win or both. The people reading my analysis must see which of the bets being the main pick. If they choose to follow them both blindly without consideration it will be their problem. Anyways it is nice to get some discussion around write-ups, it is important to have a critical eye on it when reading one. I guess I have to tell you a little about my betting system. I feel it is kind of necessary because it would explain a little why I play both bets in matches.

Like a day like this I already have these three bets pending. From before I had Pompey and will put some friendlies on the board later. All matches I bet on are from 1.70 ---> and some are so-called "high risk" matches. I do not expect to hit home all bets, but if I have an over 50% hit rate, my books will at the end of the day be in a positive direction. It is an easy system to relate to, and it works, at least for me.

Of course I am risking some placing the over bet along with the straight win, but I rate the over bet as pure value and I sincerely believe that the possibillity for a 2-1 or 3-1 win for the germans is likely. And as you said, the odds are tempting. I do not post on PL as often as I want to, time is an essence, but when I post I only writes about the matches which have convinced me in one or the other way. Of course there are any possible scenarios in footy. You could have a red card early in the match, a refs bad judgment could lead to a wrong decided penalty, a sudden injury on a key player could make the match picture turn totally. Thinking wildly of all the possible scenarios that might be in a football match would for me only be confusing. When betting I look at all the factors pre-game that is possible; form, stats, players, injuries and so on. Have learned a lot being a handball player in the top league in Norway that there is too much factors in a game that can change the gameplay that to consider all will be very difficult. In all bets there are a lot of questionmarks, you mentioned some in your post, and your reasoning is not bad at all I must say, you have some good points. Still I think it is all about how we punters think and ways of compiling all the thoughts we have on the matches which stand to come...

Thanks for the questioning by the way, it is good to think twice over a bet sometimes, hope you get some answers in my reasoning though...

[kimera]

A short update on the Greece squad as i promised. They have no new worries in their squad and will get back midfielders Ioannidis and Dimoutsos after finsihing their suspension which made them see the last group stage match sitting along with the spectators. On the german side mentioned Ben-Hatira struggles with a muscle problem. In the last training session he only took part in half of it resting and preparing for the semi. Have no further info on the other five doubtful players at the moment.

Also I would like to mention coach Nioplias stated that he was somewhat surprised that his team would reach the finals and when they achieved the objective he was very pleased. In my experience coaches has a lot more influence on players when they are young. The attitude of the manager will more often reflect on his players on the field, a definite advantage for the germans looking at it this way.

Some quotes from the coaches saying their opinion:

Nipolidis:
"Our objective was to get into the final four and we've done that. We've set our targets step by step, from the qualifying round, through to the Elite round, and now we are aiming for the final," he told uefa.com. "Of course it's a big achievement for our national team to be in the last four in the European U19 Championship for the first time."

Engel:
"The players always believed they could make the final," the coach explained. "There are two options before a tournament like this - you can just come to a European Championship and enjoy it or you can go there and make an impact. I tried to tell that to the team and I think they were listening."

Gives a quite clear meaning of how they look at the forthcoming match, surely the germans being the most offensive minded team.

[kimera]

26'

1ST

W [B1] Germany(U19)(N)*

1 - 0

Greece(U19)

Anis Ben-Hatira!

[McFly]

well done by him. you praised him for reason, Nordic punter!

[kimera]

42'

1ST

[B1] Germany(U19)(N)*

1 - 1

Greece(U19)

Ninis... Good for the overs though, the greeks got the goal I assumed, it stops there.

[allthethings]

And now 1-1, overs looking good too. Hope the Germans take control from here!

Enjoyed reading your post, BOL!

[allthethings]

1-2...sure wish now that I'd taken the overs...

[kimera]