Is this inventive or plain stupid?

[fintron]

Just backed Matt Derbyshire to make the England World Cup squad in South Africa 2010 at 33/1. A gamble worth taking or a waste of a fiver?

I like Derbyshire and although deemed surplus to requirements at Blackburn he was on fire when sent on loan to Olympiakos at the end of last year. They have now made the deal permanent. He obviously settled their last year and in a decent side, could bang in the goals next season too. If he does then surely he won't escape the attention of Capello bearing in mind England are really struggling for inform strikers at the minute. He's a promising young striker that could develop well, and the experience he will learn playing in a foriegn country will be useful.

Paddypower quoted me 6/1, Betfred 12/1 and most other firms refuse to lay the bet, but SJ offered 33/1 so had a nibble. Hopefully he doesnt get banished to the reserved and forgotten about two months into the season!!!

[aliando]

its the kind of bet that you'll know by october/november whether its gonna come in.

33's is much closer to the real price than 6's and 12's mind!!

[fintron]

Originally Posted by aliando

its the kind of bet that you'll know by october/november whether its gonna come in.

33's is much closer to the real price than 6's and 12's mind!!

Yeah, I was hoping for around 50/1 or so, but only got three positive responses out of about a dozen bookies I contacted. I fancied a novelty bet for the season though so will have to wait and see how he starts out. From what I gather they are the biggest club in Greece, who won their domestic league in 2009, so he may get a run in Europe which would give him some coverage over here.

[Mozzi]

I don't think he'll make it, unfortunately. It's good initiative on your part - he did very well at Olympiakos Piraeus towards the end of last season - but I think there's too much in front of him at the moment. Bear in mind that your World Cup squad is 23 players and your average Friendly squad can have 26 and he can't get in that despite the good form mentioned earlier? He's also competing with players better than him either by quality or alternative option - Rooney, Defoe, Crouch, Agbonlahor, Bent, Heskey. Those are the 6 "main" strikers, really. You've also got Campbell knocking at the door and Walcott, although he prefers him on the right. Lastly, Danny Welbeck is going to play more at United this forthcoming season. Fergie implied that at the end of last season and this kid is looking phenomenal for his age, I have to say. Fergie actually said he expects him to be in the World Cup squad for 2010 so he will be playing more. Put all that together and it looks unlikely for you. However, injuries can easily occur and opening may be made if you're lucky.

Good luck

[AK1979]

Its not a bad bet bearing in mind we are a little weak up front, in my opinion. He will need to have a massive season to catch Capellos eye though. I reckon theres worse 33/1 shots, good luck

[fintron]

Originally Posted by Mozzi

I don't think he'll make it, unfortunately. It's good initiative on your part - he did very well at Olympiakos Piraeus towards the end of last season - but I think there's too much in front of him at the moment. Bear in mind that your World Cup squad is 23 players and your average Friendly squad can have 26 and he can't get in that despite the good form mentioned earlier? He's also competing with players better than him either by quality or alternative option - Rooney, Defoe, Crouch, Agbonlahor, Bent, Heskey. Those are the 6 "main" strikers, really. You've also got Campbell knocking at the door and Walcott, although he prefers him on the right. Lastly, Danny Welbeck is going to play more at United this forthcoming season. Fergie implied that at the end of last season and this kid is looking phenomenal for his age, I have to say. Fergie actually said he expects him to be in the World Cup squad for 2010 so he will be playing more. Put all that together and it looks unlikely for you. However, injuries can easily occur and opening may be made if you're lucky.

Good luck

A realistic assessment. I don't rate Bent and would probably have to hope he has a poor season and that Wellbeck and Campbell are fringe players, and that Capello wants someone that has played regularly. But like I say, a novelty bet for a fiver, and will watch the Greek results with interest!

[boyd]

Olympiakos have won their league something like 12 out of last 13 times so are always in the Champions League. Hopefully he can bang a few goals in the CL for you where the whole of Europe are watching including Capello. GL with your bet.

[Jase82]

Capello is unlikely to pick a player with no prior England caps playing in an inferior league. No disrespect to Greek football, but I think it sums it up when they have Olympiakos winning the last 12 titles.

He never set the world alight where it counts in the EPL.

Good luck with your bet, but Derbyshire would have more chance of playing international football for Greece once he gets citizenship.

[fintron]

I'm not too bothered about the standard of the Greek league being lower, it he's scoring plenty of goals, including in a possible CL run I think that counts for a lot no matter what league its in, more than sitting on the subs bench which Darren Bent, Danny Wellbeck and a few others will have to do as part of squad rotation. If Theo Walcott can get a place in the England squad, then it is within the realms of possibility that Derbyshire can IMO.

Although opening the papers today I see Man U are linked to Owen. I had written his chances off for the World Cup but if he goes there and stays fit then that could be another seat on the plane filled.

[Jairzinho]

Looks a decent bet to me.

Rooney and Walcott are the only certs to go to the World Cup. Then you have Defoe, Bent, Heskey, Crouch, Agbonlahor, maybe Owen......

Out of them only Heskey and Agbonlahor and going to be playing European football this season. Owen maybe if his transfer to United goes through.

Derbyshire will get the game time in Greece and will be playing Champions Leagbue football for at least the 1st half of the season. I've always been impressed with the lad at would love to see him get in the squad.

33/1 is a fair price but one I think you can justify taking.

[MARTINLAURSEN]

Jairzinho- Heskey and Agbonlahor wont be playing european football mate - i should no, i was at the game when vienna dumped us!!!

At 33/1 it is a very clever bet, there is a chance if he can make a name for himself in greece and get media attention. I hope it does come off for you, but i cant see it pal

[Jonesy Knows]

Fin I applaud you for a canny bet

If he is in good form for the greek team then sooner or later Capello will cast his eyes over him! and why not give him a chance?

Who do we have to take:

Rooney, Defoe (certs)

possibles: Crouch, Heskey, Agbonlahor, Cole

It only takes a few injuries for those above and England will have to look elsewhere!

I think Capello will not ever bother with Owen again as he won't be getting much time with Utd and likelihood is he'll get an injury or 20 before the end of the season.

Carlton Cole I don't think he's that good to be an international.

Heskey is just a battering ram and is not going to get goals.

Agbonlahor is too inconsistent.

That leaves Rooney, Defoe and Crouch and who knows Derbyshire?

[thegaygambler]

forget Derbyshire.. NO Chance mate. He should be at 1500/1. THeres no chance of him getting into the sqaud for the WC...NO CHANCE>.... Aint clever aint realistic at alll.. There are to many players infront of him.. No CAHNCE..Im a pro gambler.. Dont waste money on that please... Listen to the pros..

[Smooth Jimmy]

No chance, mate. Sorry I think he'll take Defoe and Crouch, though I personally think Walcott is even a better option that Defoe.