FIFA World Youth Championship Netherlands 2005 - fm 10th June

[Madog]

I'm not so sure that the Italians think they are out. Here's how I understand it. It's all a bit complicated but the Italians must still fancy their chances of progressing if they get any sort of win.

They basically need 2 worst 3rd places than themselves.
Its not going to come from group B (Turkey have 4 points). So it has to come from elesewhere.

In group A they have 2 chances. If either Holland beat Benin or Aus and Japan draw they will have 1 worst place team.

Group C has finished and they would need a 3 goal win to put Chile below them.

In group D a German win against Argentina would leave Italy need a 2 goal or less win.

In group F a Brazil win could also leave them needing a 2 goal or less win regardless of the Swiss - NIgeria reult.

Bottom line is if Holland beat Benin and Brazil beat Korea by a couple of goals then Italy probably only need to win.
Not saying they will mind, but I'm sure they are aware of the situation.

[Rashin]

Actually only 4 of the best 3rd placed team will go through and I dont see Italy being one of them, unless they beat Canada by at least 4 goals to have a positive goal diff. Points first, then Goal Diff second, and thirdly number of goals scored.

Let's see who can go through.

Group F
The Swiss and the Koreans are at 3 points and with zero goal diff, so we will see either one of them going through.

Group D
Germany and USA on 4 points so even if they finish 3rd, they will get the place before Italy. Argentina is on 3 points with 1 goal diff. So a 3rd place team will come from this group.

Group B
Turkey has 4 points so they are definitely into the next round ahead of Italy.

Group C
Chile has 3 points with -2 goal diff. But they have scored much more than Italy, so Italy needs to win by at least 2 goals againts Canada to get the nod.

Only Group A is uncertain.

Yes Italy can get through if they win, but considering Canada's strength's and Italy's tired players, I do not think so.

Darn I need to go out, wont be around when matches start. Gd Luck anyway.

[Madog]

Yeah I know its the best 4 thats why I said " They basically need 2 worst 3rd places than themselves".

Theres a good chance of those 2 coming from groups A + F assuming Italy can win (0-0 after 20 mins). And definately one from group group C if they win by 3.

Theres no guarantee at this stage that one of Korea or Swiss will go through. If they both lose (to Brazil and Nigeria) They will both be on 3 points with a negative GD.

Italy now 1-0 (22 mins).

Btw. thanks for the Morocco stuff yesterday.

[Xcout]

The current results:

1-0 Argentina - Germany
Argentina confirm that the loss against USA was a mistake.
2-0 colombia - Syria
Colombia close the stage group with 3 wins, impressive. A sure underdog for next round.
4-1 Italy - Canada
Italy is hoping to go to next round, 3 goals cusion
1-0 USA - Egypt
I am starting to worry about USA, when winning is only by one goal.

Next games:

Brazil vs Korea
Yes I think Brazil can win, their goalkeeper is a playing good, altough just won last game by one goal.

Holland vs Benin
I tend to differ here, Holland is in home, and always home team plays better, so sorry for benin.

Japan vs Australia
Not touching it

Nigeria vs Switerland.
Close game to call, but I think the swiss can make a great game here

I hate this I was just 1 minute later and was unable to post any bet in these games...

[Ripped71]

Brazil up 1-0....as of now Italy's chances of going through look pretty good.

[Rashin]

Darn what kind of picks have I made, I need to cool down a little.

[Xcout]

Originally Posted by Rashin

Darn what kind of picks have I made, I need to cool down a little.

Hey Rashin don't be so hard on you, everyone has their bad streaks, myslef I am on one right now... damn it!!

Take care

[Xcout]

hey Rashin/JZ do you think Syria might be able to win to Brazil, still a high 9.00 odd, potential to win to Brazil?

[Rashin]

I'm not so sure about that, the most they can get is prob a draw or lose by 1 goal, I dont think they have what it takes to beat Brazil.

And you can just call me JZ

[Rashin]

All the matches tonight are so close I dont know where to pick a winner. But the draw on USA vs Italy game is my most confident.

[Madog]

It's worth noting that USA have qualified top of their group yet only scored 2 goals (and not conceded any yet.) so a tight game looks very probable. Can they score against Italy ?
Still, I think Italy must have the feelgood factor after digging themselves out of a hole and I'll go for them at 9/4.

[Xcout]

So a AH of 1.5 for Syria is a good one, I think.
Thanks

Yes USA has probe to have a nice defense, but Italy has receive goal, so I back USA

[Rashin]

Italy has been impressive for me, after getting them losing to Syria I thought that they werent that good. But just a few days ago they proved that they are just as capable as the other major countries. Beating USA by 3 goals is a hard feat to pull, considering that USA has not let in any goals before that. Morocco had a very tough fight to beat Japan. Most people would say that Italy was not the better team againts USA, but I think that they have more experience than the Americans. This is the quater-finals, and looking at the previous match, I believe the Italians has that mental edge over the Moroccans.


Brazil vs Germany
I really dont know who will win, but I got a feeling there will be a lot of goals.

[Xcout]

Originally Posted by Xcout

So a AH of 1.5 for Syria is a good one, I think.
Thanks

Yes USA has probe to have a nice defense, but Italy has receive goal, so I back USA

I forget to report, yes 1.5 for Syria was a good one!!

Well Italy beat USA, that was really surprise.

For Today... Morocco vs Italy is a tricky one, and Germany vs Brazil to close to call.

[heniek31]

Im having a bet on Italy. They always start slowly, but it looks like they are back on track winning last two games.
Italy @2 7/10 bet365

[Rashin]

Yeah Pelle Graziano is gonna cause major havoc in the Moroccan defence

[Rashin]

Yet again Italy upset me

How nice of them to even miss a penalty

[Rashin]

No more betting from this tournament, the games are just too close to call, just hopefully Spain can win it from now.

[Xcout]

Well Rashin there is my golden rule which sometimes I break with disastrous results. Some matches are meant not to be touch, and leave it that way.

I the game against italy I take morocco, altough with AH of 0, so my bet was null. But I think that altough italy seem to improve I can not take from my mind Syria 2 - 1 Italy.

We will see how the next matches come.

Spain indeed is the favorite now, really I back them too.

[Rashin]

Spain are out.

I hate this, everytime I break one of my own golden rules I go into a bad losing streak.

I shouldnt have touched those matches, that Syria win screwed up all my analysis. Sigh I am my own worst enemy. The bookie comes next.