Euro 2004 play-offs second leg

[Snowman]

Trying to organize my thoughts

SLO - CRO

Slovenia plus Slovenians have a good tradition of play off qualifying, once it was Ukraine, the other time Romania. This time they are especially fired up because the Croats are probably their biggest rivals in sports, so they will have the huge supporters crowd (after a probably very violent day in the streets). Before their recent defeat at home to France, they made a ten match series without a loss at home.

Slovenia minus Technically they are not as good as the Croats, if the Croats score they will stop attacking,and the Slovenians will have to make a tough choice between attacking with all their power, and protecting the goal with enough players...

Croatia plus Croats will field a much more offensive formation then they did at home (sic), so it will not be only Prso, but some other players that are worth mentioning.

Croatia minus 0-0 is enough for Slovenia, so the Croats will have to attack, and the Slovenians will not. That leaves lots of counter attack space, and Slovenia will probably reactivate for this match Mladen Rudonja (Super Rudi as they call him), a very fast and a very experienced player...

Wales - Russia

Wales plus A chance to play in Portugal is something the Welsh have waited for for far too long, I think they have enough team stability to finish the things the way they want.

Wales minus The Welsh are not as good as they were some months ago, and with Davies missing there might be unexpectedly empty spaces in their lines...

Russia plus The Russians have shown some improvement lately, and were able to win easier than before. They will probably start cautiously, waiting for the Welsh mistake. They do have the power to exploit the mistake.

Russia minus Russia are not what they used to be. They had a bad period, lots of trouble with the ex-coach, the players succeeded in ousting him, got a new coach, showed some improvement, but now they are sinking again into drabness. Russia is simply not good enough to qualify easily.

Holland - Scotland

Holland plus There are some of the worlds best players in that team. These players can always have a good day and destroy any team.

Holland minus I watched them a few times lately, and they never did play well. Not a single time. The fact that they qualified for the playoffs is just the lucky draw they had.

Scotland plus Well, its a do or die match, no motivation missing. And they dont even have to win.

Scotland minus My opinion is that the Scottish team have played some of the important matches (Germany, Lithuania, Holland) much better than expected. I am afraid they might burn out sooner or later.

Turkey - Latvia

Turkey plus Five million angry Turks in the stadium The Latvians have never seen it I believe. the Turks are an attacking team,with many good players so dont be fooled by this one or that one not playing...

Turkey minus Cant see anything except Savic statistics

Latvia plus Only the fact they conceded no goal in the first round, so there is always a chance to score and complicate the things a bit (but i think they will have to score at least two )

Latvia minus They do not have a single position where they are better than the Turks, will have lots of problems to keep the ball far enough from the goal

Norway - Spain

Norway plus Pretty nice weather, but the pitch wont be too dry, so it suits more the Norwegian style of playing. High chances that the ball will be falling into Spanish box...

Norway minus They have to win, and they are not some socring heroes...the question is will they be able to.

Spain plus They need to keep the game calm, do not have to win, a draw is enough, so there will be lots of fouls, lots of disruptions...and the Spanish are very good at it.

Spain minus the Spanish team have been pretty bad lately, so their morals must be easy to shatter. If things go the wrong way they wont recover.

:smokin

Snowman,

Just to help with your thoughts and going on the likely team from qlpol above but who is some of the worlds best players in the Dutch team. Just looking at it again and here's my thoughts.

Van Der Sar - has been known to throw the odd howler, flopped at Juve.

Oojer, Bouma - probably decent standard but not amongst Europes best in any way.

F De Boer - no pace, never been the most convincing of defenders.

Reizeger - in and out at Barca, a right back playing at centre half.

Cocu - good steady player, not spectacular.

Davids - no longer first choice at Juve. Never actually lived up to his rep/promise IMO. Always likely to throw a wobbly re various sendings off in Italy, Europe, Internationals ie in Czech Rep

Van Der Vaart - no arguements there, on his way to being one of Europes best. Lot of pressure on him to deliver tonight though.

Sneijder - could also be something very good but still potential over what he has actually delivered at the moment. Not one of Europes best currently but could be soon.

Van Der Meyde - appears to be a v good player based on first leg but there are better wingers in Europe.

RVN - superb goalscorer but international wise most of his goals have come in the non-crunch games. Not got the scoring record of Kluivert at international level but on his day very very good, one of Europes best.

Overmars - still very quick but hasn't shown anything of note since leaving Arsenal IMO.


Well thats the Dutch team taken apart then But a serious question, are they really as good as what everyone is suggesting they are? How many of the above could move about and get into most of the top teams in Europe. If the top top teams - Juve, Milan, Real Madrid etc were looking for a better player than what they had currently in a position, how many players from the Dutch national side would be considered in that short list? RVN and VDV probably but after that.....?

Oh and just so its clear, I am not suggesting in any way that Scotland are as good as them man for man either, I am just querying the rep of the Dutch players.

Norway - Spain

After watching how Spain completely played Norway off the park in the first leg, despite only winning 2-1, I think there is excellent value in the Spain odds when around 2,00. In the case of Spain - Norway 2-1 the result really doesn't tell you anything about the match. Spain should have scored at least 5 goals and it's only thanks to luck and the Norwegian keeper that there is any excitement in this match at all.

The weather is pretty good here in Norway today, not as bad as some my fellow countrymen might want it, but the pitch will probably be a little muddy. Nothing the Spaniards shouldn't be accustomed to, and the snow everyone marveled at yesterday is all gone.

If I weren't Norwegian I would definitely go for a Spanish victory - it's a huge bet in my opinion.

[edtkh]

I've got to agree with what's been pretty much discussed concerning the Dutch here.

Given the sort of publicity that has been covering their fallouts, I've got to think that what's going on in the Dutch camp is probably at its worst since Euro'96(and back then, they got thumped 4-1 by England, only qualifying to the quarters - at the expense of you guess it, Scotland - on virtue of that solitary goal they grabbed). Can't believe the fallout has extended beyond the realms of the common player bust-ups we associate with the Dutch - now, even Advocatt seems to be distancing himself from the woeful showing at Hampden Park on Saturday. :smokin How that could do any good for team spirit is anyone's guess... :b

Nevertheless, I'd still expect the Dutch to shade this, but the 11.00 on offer(Ladbrokes) for Scotland looks massive...

Slovenia - Croatia UNDER 2.5@1.70
It's probably the best choice for this match.Slovenia will play defense as usual and Croatia should start carefuly and with some changes in the squad.Milan Rapaic and Dario Srna will be in the starting eleven.Also,the Croatian defense will stronger,because Robert Kovac and Josip Simunic are backing in the team.New player is Tomislav Sokota!Only Ivica Olic can't play(suspension).On the other hand Slovenia is without their top scorer Ermin Siljak,and Marko Simeunovic(goalkeeper) will replace Mladen Dabanovic.

Norway - Spain UNDER 2.5@1.80
Norway will try to keep 0:0 in the first half.And probably will go for all or nothing in the second.I can't see too much goals here.

Holland - Scotland 1@1.30
Host can't blow up here.They missed too many excelent chances in the first match and it's time for payback.They have a many good players and can't be so unlucky again.

edtkh,

Scotland 15.0 on Betdaq with the lay at 18.0. Also 15.5 on Betfair with the lay at 16.0. Very big prices indeed

i'm not a fan of backing international matches but i've had some of scotland at 16.00 @ betfair! IMO that price is ridiculous for a team that beat the dutch 1st leg and from what i read scotland will be out for the 'killer away goal' and will not sit on the slim lead they have - only fools would.

add to this the dutch hassles and i do believe that this price and scotland's chnace, or lack of chance, has been blown out of proportion!

as an englishman i'd love the scots to go through so i'd be happy to see them through whatever the result but that price is just silly!!!

Slovenia - Croatia

Laid Turkey at 1.37 on BF for small stakes.

Turks have a sh!t goalie as replacement from what I remember of the Ireland friendly and also what I read elsewhere.

Someone wrote they will have 5 million angry turks backing them - will they still be backing them if its 0-0 after 30 mins or will they turn just like they did against England.

I have always felt that the turks play wonderful football without any real penetration - maybe we'll find out tonight.

LAtvia beat Poland and Sweeden in the group stages and the lay is better value IMO than the Turkey win.

Oh and that stat!

[edtkh]

Cheers for the info, crowie. Let's just see how Croatia fares this time - just got on them to qualify at around 2.30! Pretty decent considering Simeunovic(keeper) and the leading scorer Siljmak are out for Slovenia - there's always the small matter of Zahovic to contend with however!

Got croatia to qualify aswell, can also see Latvia@13/8WILLHILL scraping through maybe on away goals. And of course Holland will stuff Scotland tonight!(famous last words)

Stebed,

I am sure someone mentioned earlier that the Turks are not the best nation in the world at rattling in the goals. Seem to remember them struggling at home to Macedonia in the qualifiers. I honestly think lays of Turkey and Holland aren't the worst bets anyone could make tonight. However maybe the lays of them not to qualify would be considered as well seeing as if they both win 2-1 they are still out.

edtkh,

I am not sure how good/in form Zahovic is now. I am sure he had a stinker of a season last year, don't know the form he is in at present. Still if they are missing their keeper and top scorer then Croatia have every chance.

I think this match ends

2 - 0 %17 probability
3 - 1 %14 probability
2 - 1 %12 probability
1 - 1 %10 probability
3 - 0 %10 probability
1 - 0 %8 probability
0 - 0 %6 probability
4 - 0 %5 probability
4 - 1 %4 probability
2 - 2 %3 probability
else %11 probability

He ripped mcnamara everytime he got the ball, it was funny how badly mcnamara defended him. Overmars could go past him without thinking, I think he could create a goal tonight if hes not marked properly.
I can't really think of a bet good bet for 2nite, i feel the draw and away win are value on betfair, mabye VanNist to score anytime. But Wilkie managed him the last time.
Over/Under as well is quite a tight one, cos Scotland seem to have got thier defence together, but the Dutch at home may score a few?

Slovenia - Croatia
Slovenia had 0 shots on goal and Croatia has played with 10 players in the last 30 min!Croatia was totaly dominant in the whole match.

...for president!!!!





I'm so happy that Croatia qualifed for EURO 2004 that i can't describe it, this will be a long night(s)....

Cheers guys

[bagehot]

Isn't that the same guy who scored 4 goals in the 8-3 bashing of Deportivo by Monaco? And if I'm not wrong scored the Croatian goal in the 1st leg too?

My, is he having an absolutely amazing fortnight or what...

Being Portuguese, I have my fingers crossed for the Spaniards and Scots tonight. Our neighbours are far too good a team to miss out on the Euro and their absence would be a huge blow on expected attendances. And after that thrilling UEFA Cup final which brought sadness to so many Scots, I'm eager to see their national side coming through. Simply the best supporters I've ever seen

fan-fcuking-tastic!

The turks are out drawing 2-2 with Latvia.

Come on Wales early goal and lets see what happens.

Looks too late for Scotland.

Rapidly adding to his reputation as the new Jim Leighton

Nice work on the Latvian's first goal:hat

From a positive point of view, at least they're out now and only got humiliated once. If they had qualified, probably would've happened 3 times