Euro 2004 final qualifying round 11/10

1 Cyprus-Slovenia
1 France-Israel
2 Norway-Luxembourg
2 BosniaHerzegovina-Denmark
3 Austria-Czech Republic
3 Netherlands-Moldova
4 Sweden-Latvia
4 Hungary-Poland
5 Scotland-Lithuania
5 Germany-Iceland
6 Greece-Northern Ireland
6 Armenia-Spain
7 Turkey-England
7 Liechtenstein-Slovakia
8 Croatia-Bulgaria
8 Belgium-Estonia
9 Italy-Azerbaijan
9 Wales-Serbia and Montenegro
10 Russia-Georgia
10 Switzerland-Republic of Ireland
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Well, here we go, the final round in which it's dead or glory for many teams...
It seems for us punters some money can be made with such games

I'll start with giving you a "dare i say it" banker....
Belgium need to win and they'll do that, eventhough it probably won't be enough to qualify. The team is ready to take on a weakened Estonia, without striker Oper.
Belgium is without injuries and will field their strongest squad.

Other nice bets could be Turkey, Czech Republic, Croatia and who knows maybe even Georgia...

Upset pick:

Bosnia over Denmark.

The Bosnian squad looks ready, they are on a good roll. The chemistry is coming together finally, the team has always been good but now they are coming together and makign it work.
The win would put them directly into Portugal. They beat the Danes in Denmark 2-0.

The manager of Bosnia says the players look in good shape and ready to go, and he thinks they will beat Denmark.

Its hard to debate that given our poor, poor run of form.

I've bet against us in the last few games and unfortunately, that has worked out quit well (although those damn Danes did get that lucky equali... Oh well )

All I can say is - Ebbe Sand is out and maybe Henriksen as well and that is a GOOD thing for Denmark. Peter Madsen will surely replace Sand, and he is hot atm, and whoever replaces Henriksen can only do a better job.

On the other hand, miracle keeper Sorensen is also doubtful and him we can certainly use.

There are 4 factors playing into the hands of us here:

1. The draw is good enough for us.
2. The Danish team is used to this type of match - the Bosnians are not. Nerves could set in.
3. The fact that the Bosnians have to attack will make players like Rommedahl, Lovenkrands and Gronkjaer all the more dangerous.
4. We are better away than home atm.

Still not sure what to go for here...

I quite fancy this wee treble that I think looks pretty safe. (All prices with Bet365)

France vs. Israel - 1 @ 1.14
Yes I know this is a nothing match as far as group standings go, but the French still have one final motivation left ... to win the group with a 100% record, and playing in Paris should help them do it.

They will be missing Vieira, Makelele, Sagnol and Silvestre but have plenty of cover to bring in and with Zizi and Henry etc. I just cant see past a home win here.

Belgium vs. Estonia - 1 @ 1.12
Belgium know that they must win this match to have any chance of progressing to Euro2004 and this should give them the necessery motivation to put in one last performance against Estonia.

The Estonians are no mugs and rarely lose by many goals now (usually 1-0, 2-0), but they will be missing Oper and Kristal and with Buffel and Sonck upfront Belgium should find goals.

Russia vs. Georgia - 1 @ 1.16
Russia are like Belgium here and must win this match to make sure they have a chance of qualifying. They have won all their home matches (and scored 4 each time!!!) while Georgia have lost all their away games.

Basically I have been impressed with the Russians against the Irish and think they shoudl win this one by a few goals.

This treble pays out at 1.50 combined and is decent value IMO for three games that should be 9/10 home wins.

[swampster]

have a few correct scores on Greece v N.Ireland, Northern Ireland out and still goalless in God knows how many games.

Greece 1-0, 2-0, 3-0

Da Hannanah


Your manager was quoted as saying, if you play like you did against Romania, you will lose in Bosnia.

Then in a later interview, he went on to say, that Denmark do not have the team to play for a draw.

He said you dont have the team to hold on to a lead, you need to be pressuring all the time.

I would agree with this assesment.

He did say today, that he is 100% of a draw.
Which he is totally contradicting himself from what he said before.
BUt remember he did say that he was confident in a win against Romania, at home, and you guys almost lost, and deserved to as well.

We are at home, and our fans make a lot of noise.
We will be in Sarajevo which will fit about 40,000, other teams have made comments about the noise when it was half full, so it will be crazy in there.

I think the concentration will be difficult for both teams, not for just Bosnia.

The fans will make our players more comfortable, and make them work harder, they will do the opposite to your players.
However, if we dont get a goal by the 70th minute, the pressure will be on really much.

If Denmark was at home, I could see how your point above could be very valid.

Should be interesting.

GREECE - THE NORTH
Betting Under 2.5 has proved profitable in the North's last few games for me so I'll chance some of my winnings on teh same here again.
Just had 2.52 matched on betfair, which is a little surprise considering OVER only occured in one of Northern Ireland's qualifiers, also were Spain not considered a BANKER at 1/5 in June and we know what happened there, so I definitely won't be backing Greece at such short odds as the North deserved at least a draw and probably a win out of their last game against Armenia.

[Luso]

You've got a great price there, Irish TW.

I think Northern Ireland will certainly be a hard side to break down and may try and play for a 0-0 given their lack of scoring of late. They probably won't score in Greece and the Greeks will do well to score 3 at home to them. I think they could be a bit nervous knowing a win will see them qualify and once they are 1-0 or 2-0 ahead they won't exactly take too many risks trying to score more.

HT - Draw FT - Greece could also be worth a look.

[swampster]

Irish TW, what odds are you taking on the Republic to beat Switzerland ?

definitely gonna have some of the UNDER 2.5 on the N.Ireland too.

I'll take whatever decent price I can get, trying to get over 3.15 on betfair, although I would settle for less if it's not matched.
Having seen Switzerland's last performance away to Russia, I make us a very good bet for this game.

Russia 4-1 Switzerland

Ireland 1 -1 Russia

Sweden v Latvia @ 1.6

"Although Sweden has already qualified to EURO 2004 we will play to win against Latvia. We urgently need 3 points in this match to secure good spot in EURO2004 quals. Win here is part of our strategy." - Lars Lagerback, Swedish national team coach.

That quote is good enough for me. I thought Sweden might have taken this game pretty easily but they need to win to be seeded when it comes to selecting the groups in the tournement stage. Latvia are not too bad a side but will be missing 3 key players: Marian Pahars, Jurijs Laizans and Andrejs Prohorenkovs.

Was 1.75 now 1.6 and dropping.

[Daglashen]

GREECE-N.IRELAND

The final countdown for Greece, who is 90 minutes away from Portugal!
Against all odds, Greece is standing proudly on top of their Group, leaving behind the grand favorite Spain. All we need is to win our last match against Northern Ireland at home, in order to get qualification. «You have defeated them in Belfast, now you have to defeat them again in Athens. You have the chance to write history», said coach Otto Rehagel to his players.
The only missing player is defender Kirgiakos (injured). The most probable line-up is: Nikopolidis – Dellas, Kapsis, Antzas, Fyssas, Seitaridis – Basinas, Giannakopoulos, Tsiartas – Charisteas, Vryzas.
On Saturday, 15.000 flags and 10.000 scarves will be offered as a gift to the spectators and for the first time the new anthem for the Greek National Football Team by Mikis Theodorakis will be heard. Needless to say that there is not a ticket left and everything is ready for the big fiesta.
1.500.000 Euros await the Greek players. This is the bonus for the Qualification to the EURO 2004 in Portugal.

N.Ireland has forgotten when it was the last time that they scored a goal. Check out their latest matches:
17/04/2002 N.Ireland-Spain: 0-5 (Friendly)
21/08/2002 N.Ireland-Cyprus: 0-0 (Friendly)
12/10/2002 Spain-N.Ireland: 3-0 (Euro Qualifiers)
16/10/2002 N.Ireland-Ukraine: 0-0 (Euro Qualifiers)
12/02/2003 N.Ireland-Finland: 0-1 (Friendly)
29/03/2003 Armania-N.Ireland: 1-0 (Euro Qualifiers)
02/04/2003 N.Ireland-Greece: 0-2 (Euro Qualifiers)
03/06/2003 Italy-N.Ireland: 0-2 (Friendly)
11/06/2003 N.Ireland-Spain: 0-0 (Euro Qualifiers)
06/09/2003 Ukraine-N.Ireland: 0-0 (Euro Qualifiers)
10/09/2003 N.Ireland-Armenia: 0-1 (Euro Qualifiers)

Coach McIlroy has many players missing: midfielders Daugherty (injured), Mulryne (injured) Johnson (suspended) and striker McVeigh (injured). However the Captain of the team, Keith Gillesby, is fit and he will play.

GO HELLAS!

Cant Believe that no-one has noticed the price that the likes of hills are offering 2.20 for the best current team in european football against a very below average Austrian Team... I know that the Czechs have already qualified for this tournament but they have named a strong squad and the manager wants to finish with a win in this group..surely 2.20 is far too high for a inform team

From the betfair forum:

1) Cyprus are hit with many Injuries and key players not playing.
2) Cyprus players confidence is low!
3) Not many people will go to the match as there is no interest!
4) With all the injuries,, Cyprus have no chance winning this match and Slovenia is a massive bet to win as Slovenia should have benn odds on to win this match!! Help yourself guys as Slovenia will win fairly easy!!

3 matches caught my eyes, as they have quite interesting odds:

Hungary-Poland: on paper, Polish team has a better squad with some decent and experienced players (even if top striker Olisadebe won't play as he's long time injured) but they're not a team, as Polish manager uses to change formation for every match, and tomorrow's one won't be an exception: for first time they will play with a 3-5-2, which they're totally not used to; Poland used to play 3-5-2 under coach Boniek, and managed to get a lot of losses. On the other side Hungary has almost full squad, plays at home, and has a good team with a good play. I think odds around 2,25 (@gamebookers) are worth a medium stake. Honestly, I'm more confident on Poland problems than on Hungarian great match.

Bosnia-Denmark: Bosnia needs to win, there's a great atmosphere around the team, which can go to the European Championship for the first time. All tickets sold.
Denmark seems to have a couple of key players out (Sand for sure), while Bosnia will be totally complete, and anyway I think Bosnia will play 110% so motivation will be the weapon, more than this or that player. Just for the record, Bosnia won 2-0 in Denmark last April. If DH or someone else has some more info, please tell.

Cyprus-Slovenia: Slovenia has already secured 2nd place, so will play without worries, and I'm confident that quality will make the difference. They won't be nervous, they'll just play for end with a win. Zahovic will be out and will be replaced by Vogric, at his first time with national team.
I don't know about the key pleyers out for Cyprus, but I think this is another good reason for backing Slovenia.

What do you think about these, guys?:hat

AUSTRIA to me seem to be a good bet this weekend for a home win I don't think |I CZECH REPUBLIC|I will play so good:rolleyes they have or ready won the group and don't need to win
I no Czech are a good team but Austria will be playing for pride in front of there home :b crowd:b 3.00 with centrebet....

they also catched my eye, but beware....

Poborsky, Koller, Baros, are injured or suspended, while Grygera and Smicer are doubtfull.
Furthermore, a draw is enough to qualify as Number 1.



Can someone explain what exactly counts when teams draw level on points... Is it the goal difference or the result against the other team?

[dirkscot]

HTH 1st criteria, then goal diff etc

[Marek76]

my heart says one thing but my mind tells me something totally different. the thing is that polish national football team usually has got problem when it comes to playing a "last chance game". 4 years ago, in the last game in the group we played Sweden in Stockholm and all we needed was a draw to qualify for EURO2000...and Sweden had already qualified before that game. we lost 0-2...:x and guess whom Sweden did a favour? England

both teams need to win to qualify. draw will only help Latvia, currently on the second spot. with both teams so desperately needing a win under 2.5 looks very likely.

[Rumlesen]

Can anybody tell me if this is the strongest squad Slovinia is fielding out. I offcause miss Zahovic, but would like to hear about the others.

Slovenia squad
Dabanovic, Simeunovic, Bulajic, Cipot, Knavs, Šnofl, Vugdalic, Acimovic, Ceh, Kapic, Koren, Pavlin, Rudonja, Sešlar, Šukalo, Žlogar, Cimirotic, Šiljak, Vogric.

I cannot find conformation that Cyprus has all these players out as someone has pointet out. Does anybody have team news from there ??

I belive that 2.12 At Betfair on the Sloveniens could be great, if the right team news is there.