Copa America 2007

[kamei34]

First semifinal already decided as Brasil trashed once again Chile while Uruguay woked up when it matters and beat a bit surprisingly for me hosts Venezuela 4:1.
Tonight Argentina have rather easy job with Peru while in Mexico - Paraguay match we should see a nice battle as teams are more or less on same/similar level like me and Muuki, except he is better in betting.
Should be the closest 1/4 final and draw looks most probable to me. Just cannot pick one winner as both deserves to play in semis. Mexico for great group stage with 7pts beating Brasil in first round but also Paraguay with their impressive two wins on the start, especially the one with Colombia 5:0.
Both are very well organised teams with nice gameplan and need very few chances to score.
I expect something like 1:1 tonight.
MEXICO: Oswaldo Sanchez; Rafael Márquez, Johnny Magallón, the Faustus Pinto, Israel Castro; Ramon Morales, Jaime Correa, Gerald Torrado, Andrés Guardado; Nery Castillo and Omar Bravo. DT Hugo Sanchez.
PARAGUAY: Aldo Bobadilla; Darío Verón, Julio Caesar Cáceres, Paulo give Silva; Carlos Bonet, Cristian Riveros, Edgar Barreto, Aureliano Torres; Jonathan Santana; Roque Santa Cruz and Oscar Cardozo or Salvador Cabins. DT Gerald Martino
I'll try Draw, betsafe @3.25. GL~

[andre gomes]

The most exciting game of quarter finals will happen tonight: Mexico vs Paraguay

Both teams show good football in first phase so it’s hard to call a winner to this matchup.

Paraguay is a better defensive team; normally they play with 5 defenders (3-5-2) and explore counter attacks. I believe they won’t change anything tonight.
Mexico is a very pragmatic team; they will wait until launch a deadly counter attack.

I expect both teams to have a defensive and calculate posture tonight, even in past recent friendly it happen the same: Mexico won 2-1 and Paraguay won other game 1-0.

One important factor is that the pitch will be in terrible condition, the Stadium is near to the coast and in last days raining a lot.

Mexico’s Coach about the pitch: “It’s Terrible!”
All the facts give me confidence to a lower scoring game.

Under 2.5 Goals is a value bet!


Good Luck

Pick on my Blog: http://andregomes.apostaganha.pt

[888]

I fully agree with you meatman.

Mexico -0.25 @ 2.14 now in CANBet look to be a value bet. This match could go any other way. Paraguay has been impressive in their group play belting Columbia 5 - 0 and USA 3 - 1 and only losing 1 - 0 to Argentina. However keep in mind that Columbia and USA defences were not really that strong. I watched the match between USA and Paraguay, I thought USA going to nail it until their defenders screw up again and let Paraguay run riot. However, against Mexico this wouldn't be that easy. Despite losing, USA played a good football and definetely deserve to score 1 or 2 more goals by the way they played.

Anyway, Mexico win was against Brazil and it was quite impressive. But Brazil from statistics if memory serves me right were dominating but Mexico managed to convert their limited chances. And I think as long as they can convert their chances today, they should triump against Paraguay who rely on counter attack. Since possession will be mostly held by Mexico if Paraguay decided to play like that.

Pick : Mexico -0.25 @ 2.14 CANBet [ 5/10 ]

[CasusKral]

Sport : Football (Copa America)

Event : Argentina - Peru

Date : 08-07-2007 23 :50 GMT

Market : Total Goals

Selection : Over 2.5 Goals

Bookmarker / Price : Stan James @ 1.62

Tip Comments : Argentina has scored 9 goals at 3 match (4-4-1) , Peru has scored 4 goals at 3 match (2-2-0). Its very strong probability over 2.5 goals

Total Stake : 250 €

Estimated Profit : 155 €

[CasusKral]

Originally Posted by CasusKral

Sport : Football (Copa America)

Event : Argentina - Peru

Date : 08-07-2007 23 :50 GMT

Market : Total Goals

Selection : Over 2.5 Goals

Bookmarker / Price : Stan James @ 1.62

Tip Comments : Argentina has scored 9 goals at 3 match (4-4-1) , Peru has scored 4 goals at 3 match (2-2-0). Its very strong probability over 2.5 goals

Total Stake : 250 €

Estimated Profit : 155 €

WONNNNN

FT'

Argentina

4 : 0

Peru

[meatman]

Hi there to PL

well done on that successful over tip

[adam7777]

Well done Casuskral , that was a nice tip , Wonder what the chances are with them doing that against Mexico in the semi final !?

[archaeus]

I've backed Brasil at 1.61 @ betfair as it seemed to me a correct price for the value difference between the 2 teams. Even without Dinho and Kaka Brasil outplayed most of it's rivals so far and only bad luck or extremely poor play would see them out of the competition before the final. Besides last game vs Venezuela havent watched Uruguay so far, but even if i had, my thoughts would have been the same.

[888]

Uruguay vs Brazil

After the 6 - 1 mauling over Chile, Brazil will come to this match as a favourite. Undoubtedly, they are the better team too on paper compared to Uruguay. Both team had a slow start to the tournament, with Brazil losing to Mexico while Uruguay suprisingly got defeated by Peru.

However, as the tournament progress, Brazil is stepping up its gear and had a good win over Chile 3 - 0 and another win against Ecuador thanks to Robinho late goal.

While for Paraguay, they just won against Bolivia 1 - 0 after that and drew with host nation, Venezuela, for qualifying. True that Uruguay doesn't look impressive with those figures. But don't forget they are playing without Recoba for the first two game and on their 3rd game in the tournament against Venezuela, Recoba was only a 70 min substitution. And yes, I believe Recoba will be the one that provide the differences for them. Without him, their attack looked to be toothless with Forlan being infertile before breaking his 'curse'.

Defensively, the Uruguayan is a class above Chile and I don't think we would see a mauling again by Brazil. Moreover, Uruguay have a good tradition in Copa America. H2H records also showed that Uruguay tend to do quite well against Brazil.

2005/2006 World Cup 06 S. Uruguay - Brazil 1:1
2004 Copa America Uruguay - Brazil 1:1

The handicap of +0.75 at odds of 2.17 is a value imo. I really can see Uruguay sticking up to Brazil's neck and try not to conceede early and rely on the counter-attack. It is very possible for this match to end in draws or Brazil to win but by 1 goal only.

Anyway, this is not a high stake bet material, so please stake carefully.

Betting Pick: Uruguay (+0.75) @ 2.17 betfair [ 2/10 ]

Probable Lineups:

Brazil: Doni - Maicon, Alex, Juan and Gilberto - Gilberto Silva, Mineiro, Josué and Júlio Baptista, Robinho and Vágner Love. C: Dunga

Uruguay: Fabian Carini - Diego Lugano, Andrés Scotti, Dario Rodriguez - Maximiliano Pereira, Pablo Garcia, Diego Perez, Cristian Rodriguez, Jorge Fucile - Diego Forlán and Alvaro Recoba. C: Oscar Washington Tabárez.

[golden1]

Hi Everyone, great site, I have been a member on the site since 2004 but thought it was time I popped my cherry and finally posted.

I have done really well backing over 2.5 goals on betfair throughout this tournament. If you dont include the 3rd round group games where most teams rested players 13 of the 16 matches have ended up over 2.5 goals. My strategy has been to place the bet before kick off if starting odds over 2.20 if not I try and wait and place bet in running, aiming to get the bet on around the 20th minute.

Also there have been a lot of late goals, again I wait in running until around 75th minute and wait for odds to reach 2.0, I think 14 of the 16 games not including last group stage matches have had a goal after the 75th minute, again many have several goals scored in the last 15 minutes. I lay the current score on the correct score market once the game starts to approach the last 15 minutes.

I will continue with this strategy tonight, runs the risk of a tighter cagey game but, this tournament keeps producing the goals so I will stick with the trend. As long as one of the teams scores before the 60th minute I fancy this bet to come in again. Both teams should be fairly positive as there is no extra time, goes straight to penalties, both will fancy their chances of progressing.

[heniek31]

to PL golden. Very good input .

[andre gomes]

Bookies expect a high scoring game! Are they correct? I know it sounds a little risky to this tournament but maybe a under can be a value bet pick.


The lines are now about 2.10/2.15 for Under 2.5 goals completely overrated.


Let’s faced: All 4 games of Copa America Quarter-Finals went on Overs: 4-1, 6-1, 6-0 and 4-0. In those games the teams that won it played against weakest defenses, fewest players playing in Europe, the exception was Paraguay but a red card and a penalty in the start changed all.


My question is: If those 4 games disappear will bookies offered the same odds!? Of course not!


Last 2 h2h games:


2005/2006 World Cup 06 S. Uruguay - Brazil 1:1
2004 Copa America Uruguay - Brazil 1:1


Uruguayan coach Tabarez said this:
“Lo primero será defender bien”; Estar bien parados en defensa y a partir de allí “desarrollar nuestra estrategia de ataque”


The fist thing to do is defend well, and then start the offensive moves – Tabarez said


Tabarez was very clear to the strategy tonight.


Recoba and Dario Rodriguez both finished the last game exhausted, and I doubt they can be 100% fit tonight.


Brazil had no trouble to beat Chile, they used a 3 working defensive mind midfields: Gilberto, Mineiro and Jozué, while Chile in that zone was very soft, X-factor to that game.


That will not happen tonight, Uruguay have Diego Perez and Pablo Garcia the kind of “warriors players” who will get some trouble to Brazil, mainly Robinho.


Otherwise the X factor to Brazil last couple games was Julio Baptista in detriment of Anderson or Diego. With Baptista Brazil gains weight and size in the area, helping the underrated Vagner Love.



Tonight I expect a tough match to Brazil, I think they will win but a closed 1-0 or 2-0 result.

http://andregomes.apostaganha.pt

[meatman]

Tournament: Copa America 2007
Match: Brazil v Uruguay
Date: 11/7/07
Time: 02:50 cet
Reccomended Bet: Brazil -1 AH @ 2.17 Canbet 2/10

Brazil are a better class to Uruguay. It wont be that easy but at the end of the day I cant see them not winning this one. Uruguay have not impresssed me much this tourney - ok they beat Venezuala 4-1 but they are hardly the best of teams are they. Very generous odds on the -1 line IMO and worth 2/10 stakes

[888]

Mexico vs Argentina

Mexico knows that they will face arguably one of the best attacking team in the competition. Certainly one of the logical way to win against them would be to shut down their attack also slowly and patiently build up the attack or counter-attack them real fast. Just like against Brazil, Mexico might use similar strategy here where they upset the favourites at that time by 2 goals to nil. Mexico also have the best defensive record in this tournament so far with only conceeding 1 goal so far.

On the other side, Argentina will also be aware that Mexican attacking force is not one that can be taken lightly. They will not play as freely and as aggressive as they have done in the past. Leaving a small hole to the Mexican can backfire the team badly.

Surely the expectation of the public will be a high scoring game with both team coming to the semi final after mauling their last opponents in the quarter final stage. But I think we will see a different side for both team tomorrow. Moreover, history also tend to agree with me. From their latest H2H from the year 2004 until present, 4 matches they have played against each other have gone under 2.5 goals.

At odds of 2.20, this is a value in my oppinion. However, I would stake carefully since both team attacking forces can be deadly but I doubt it will an all open play tomorrow. Teams prefer results to beauty. Medium stakes for me. Maybe small stakes is safer but the odds really tempted me to stake a bit more on this bet.

Probable lineups:

Argentina: Roberto Abbondanzieri - Javier Zanetti, Roberto Ayala, Gabriel Milito, Gabriel Heinze - Juan Verón, Javier Mascherano, Esteban Cambiasso - Juan Román Riquelme - Lionel Messi and Diego Milito. C: Alfio Basile.

Mexico: Oswaldo Sánchez - Israel Castro, Rafael Márquez, Jonny Magallón, Fausto Pinto - Fernando Arce, Gerardo Torrado, Jaime Correa, Andrés Guardado - Juan Carlos Cacho and Nery Castillo ou Omar Bravo. C: Hugo Sánchez.

Betting Pick: Under 2.5 Goals @ 2.2 Pinnacle [ 5/10 ]

[Rob the I ty]

I like the under as well even for this wide open tournament. This is the semis so expect to see tighter defensive play. Mexico will be without Nery Castillo their best player and perhaps the best player of the whole tournament thus far. Plenty of quality defenders on both sides and Mexico know they can't play wide open against the Argentines. Peru held Argentina for a half but fell apart in the end. I think Mexica can do the same and maintain for 90 minutes.

[FinLandiaFish]

Just some thoughts about tonights game:

I've watched all of Argentina's four games and they haven't actually played that aggressively as you would think so I disagree with 888's comment about they playing less aggressively as their play this far has reminded me lot of Chelsea: they pass the ball around in their on half alot keeping the posession, I mean they pass the ball till a bettor like me (on Argentina hc win most of the times) gets very frustrated And mostly their HT results have been due to bad luck (for example two great chances against Peru last time, one hit the post etc.). Also the player choises have made it hard sometimes, vs Paraguay there was some awful pls on field in first half (mostly if I remember right it was Rodriques or something) and against Peru they had Tevez on bench (who has been excellent) and D Milito on field (who was pathetic, toothless etc.) also Veron was an odd choice as the curly haired younger midfielder (don't remember name, sry) has been creating alot. It's very likely that Argentina is the team with lots more ball posession again and it's also likely that they'll find a way to score the first goal amd then imo Mexico is f'ed as the previous opponents. Also I think that if Mexico decides to be the aggressive side they'll commit a suicide, you simply can't give Argentina's über talented players any extra space or you are in trouble in a hurry. And IMO Messi has been the best player in the tournament so far (even though his game against Peru wasn't a success excluding the some of the first half), he is just amazing... and for the record Riquelme has been a pleasant surprise, although he makes me wonder sometimes as he isn't actually the fastest player around. So I'll back Argentina as in my opinion they are the superior team here and hopefully watch an another good effort from their side (if I stay awake, the game starts 3.45 am local time ).

Argentina @1.57

Best of luck everyone

[blackcrow]

While Argentina are very good and deserve to keep the tag of tournament favourites so far, Mexico have been also playing pretty well.

I like the above line of thinking that both teams will be cautious of the other and not try to open it up too much. A good bet could be draw option at halftime.

I'm taking this further by taking a draw(halftime) / Argentina (fulltime)option as i think the Argies will gauge what the Mexicans can offer and then work out some different tactics at halftime to break them down. Especially with players like Messi and Riquelme, they have two very good game breakers who can create something out of nothing.

[888]

Originally Posted by Rob the I ty

I like the under as well even for this wide open tournament. This is the semis so expect to see tighter defensive play. Mexico will be without Nery Castillo their best player and perhaps the best player of the whole tournament thus far. Plenty of quality defenders on both sides and Mexico know they can't play wide open against the Argentines. Peru held Argentina for a half but fell apart in the end. I think Mexica can do the same and maintain for 90 minutes.

I just read the Copa America website they said that Castillo will play. However, I read it using translator I'm not sure how accurate it is. But there are few sentences that confirm this. And also it will be Tevez instead of Milito who will start I think.

[888]

Ok, everything is official now !!! From Copa America official website.

MEXICO
1 - Oswaldo SÁNCHEZ
5 - Israel CASTRO
2 - Jonny MAGALLÓN
4 - Rafael MÁRQUEZ
3 - Fausto PINTO
6 - Gerardo TORRADO
20 - Fernando ARCE
8 - Jaime CORREA
18 - Andrés GUARDADO
12 - Juan Carlos CACHO
21 - Nery CASTILLO

ARGENTINA
1 - Roberto ABBONDANZIERI
8 - Javier ZANETTI
2 - Roberto AYALA
15 - Gabriel MILITO
6 - Gabriel HEINZE
20 - Juan Sebastián VERÓN
14 - Javier MASCHERANO
19 - Esteban CAMBIASSO
10 - Juan Román RIQUELME
18 - Lionel MESSI
11 - Carlos TÉVEZ

[2hcb]

extremely bad luck blackcrow, seconds away from a nice winner. Have to feel for the Mexicans there, absolutely nothing went their way, hit the woodwork twice, dodgy penalty, Messi wondergoal. They actually played quite well but the scoreline doesn't suggest it.