African Nations Cup 2008 - Outright

[christo85efc]

Sudans squad has a lot of players that play for Hilal, could that help as they will already know each other inside out?

[NewPunter]

After seeing some of the goalkeeping at previous ANC's I'm going to pick my winner as the team with the best goalkeeper and imo that is cameroon

[ScottishBhoy87]

Originally Posted by mr onemore

2008 African Nations Cup, Ghana, starts 21 Jan 2008

Time for the African Nations Cup again. I’m living here in Ghana at the moment and looking forward to going to these matches. Might post a few photos as we go along, catch a bit of the atmosphere…

Had a good run last time out – made a good profit on this thread http://www.punters-paradise.com/forums/showthread.php?t=2536 and hope some of the contributors to this thread last time are still around?

Here’s my numbers for this year. The Attack, Defence and Overall rankings are my own. They are based on performances at home and away during the last 5 years, with the most recent games weighting more heavily. The strengths of the opposing teams were also taken into account.

The rankings are from 1=top, through to 16=lowest for the 16 finalists.

The odds quoted are from Ladbrokes.

Group A

Ghana

Attack: 9
Defence: 3
Overall: 5

Odds: 3/1 fav

My view: Hosting to disappointing…Ghana won’t win this. Leaky at the back in recent games, captain Appiah out injured and the crowd doesn’t always lift when the team gets in trouble…will need the refs help…

Voodoo Factor: *** home doctors

Morocco

Attack: 16
Defence: 1
Overall: 2

Odds: 10/1

My view: Great team – hard to beat, but doesn’t score. 0-0 every game…(though might sneak one past Namibia). Worth a shout in KO stages, if they get there…


Voodoo Factor: zero – on the receiving end I’m afraid



Guinea

Attack: 3
Defence: 5
Overall: 3

Odds: 25/1


My view: On a great run and fantastically underrated. Surprise package for those not in the know…

Voodoo Factor: *** can hold their own



Namibia

Attack: 15
Defence: 16
Overall: 16

Odds: 66/1

My view: Genuine minnows – early doors…


Voodoo Factor: zero – inexperienced…



Group B

Nigeria

Attack: 10
Defence: 7
Overall: 8

Odds: 6/1


My view: Same old story - great players on paper, low team spirit, financial problems – never changes…possible early ‘tro-tro’ back

Voodoo Factor: **** don’t mess



Ivory Coast

Attack: 1
Defence: 2
Overall: 1

Odds: 4/1

My view: As good as you think? YES and playing at home too (near enough). Champions elect and they have my money…


Voodoo Factor: ** moderate users, but **** in penalty shoot-outs



Mali

Attack: 6
Defence: 4
Overall: 6

Odds: 22/1


My view: Great team, great football. Can’t wait for Mali v Ivory Coast in Accra. A lot of smart money going on Mali, good value.


Voodoo Factor: **** quite a scarey outfit altogether


Benin

Attack: 12
Defence: 12
Overall: 14

Odds: 150/1

My view: Honestly, these squirrels aren’t bad…tough group though. Put an advert out last month for ‘new’ players – most of the French second division has responded…


Voodoo Factor: ***** top of the pile. How else did they beat Togo 4-1 to qualify?



Group C

Egypt

Attack: 13
Defence: 6
Overall: 10

Odds: 14/1

My view: This ANC is not in Cairo – end of discussion…


Voodoo Factor: zero – doesn’t work outside the pyramids



Cameroon

Attack: 7
Defence: 9
Overall: 9

Odds: 6/1

My view: Definitely a lay at these odds – reputation going before the fall…



Voodoo Factor: ** out of practice


Zambia

Attack: 11
Defence: 11
Overall: 12

Odds: 25/1

My view: Southern African teams in West Africa = lost money, leave alone


Voodoo Factor: * different chickens in West Africa



Sudan

Attack: 8
Defence:13
Overall: 13

Odds: 200/1

My view: Club teams have had a great season the African champions league. 200/1!!! Got to be joking – should be around 28/1 – sneaking feeling this team will make the quarters…


Voodoo Factor: unknown – but they must have something



Group D

Tunisia

Attack: 5
Defence:10
Overall: 7

Odds: 14/1


My view: Always a well organized, good team – but will come unstuck against the big West African’s later in the tournament.


Voodoo Factor: zero – just when will these North Africans join the modern game?



Senegal

Attack: 4
Defence:8
Overall: 4

Odds: 14/1

My view: Watch out for Senegal – I think they’ll go well here, and a nice group to start with. Back to the best of a few years back, and every chance once the KO stages start.


Voodoo Factor: **** don’t touch the team bus



South Africa

Attack: 14
Defence: 14
Overall: 15

Odds: 28/1


My view: 1000/1 South Africa have been rubbish for ages, hosts of 2010 WC are still experimenting and running out of time…potential embarrassment.

Voodoo Factor: ** faith in Ghana immigration to stop this lot



Angola

Attack: 2
Defence:15
Overall: 11

Odds: 33/1

My view: I just don’t rate this team, but they keep on getting the results. Time for Angola to take a fall – first flight out…


Voodoo Factor: zero – it’s run out…


Summary

I’m waiting to see the squads, and read around a bit more before lumping on…but up to now I say…

Winners – Ivory Coast
Was hoping they were overrated – as Joe Public will be on these – but this side really does stand up to the hype. A great team in all areas and it will take a lot to beat them. Odds are a little short, but shop around and there is better…

Great Value – Senegal
I think they have a cruise into the quarters, and they’re another team who is difficult to crack. Should get better and better as the tournament goes on.

Lay – Ghana
Hate to say it, seeing as I’m in Ghana for this one, but Ghana are going to fail. Looked very shaky against Benin in a recent friendly, and hammered 5-0 by Saudi Arabia a month or so ago. Essien is by some local accounts an arse, and team spirit plummets when the chips are down. Far too short a price, I’d have Ghana around 9/1.

Great post mate, thanks for all the useful information

[christo85efc]

Any opinions on top goalscorer for ANC?

I guess you have to look at which teams will go furthest in the tournament.

If Mali advance from their group which will be tough, I like the look of big Freddie Kanoute trading at 9.2 on betfair.

Any thoughts?

Drogba is the obvious choice, i believe Ivory Coast will go a long way in the tournament.

[Falbrav]

Meatman - I'm glad I read that, as I feel the same about 'Sudan'. OK, the do need to improve, but improving they are and they did win their qualifying group and their nation is getting bigger and better as far as footballing talent is concerned. The cup always seems to throw up an outsider that does well, and this year 'Sudan' fit the bill.

I've personally had a small bet on them (2 x £10s @ 200 and 220 betfair) and am looking for a good start then hopefully lay a bit off. They are too big in price no matter how they end up doing, so glad you quoted what you did and it's made me feel more confident in my own thoughts.

[alexmac]

My fancy is CAMEROON to win the ANC.

West African teams tend to do very well indeed when the ANC is played in the West of the continent. Yes, the Ivory Coast are worthy favourites, but at 6/1 Cameroon look like a value punt E/W. Ghana do not have a recognised forward, so I do not see where the goals are going to come from. Egypt are a decent team, but with Mido out I doubt they will have enough presence up front. Nigeria are a total mystery, if things go for them then they could win it - but if they got started off the wrong foot then they will be a shambles. Out of the 'leading' contenders, this leaves Cameroon, who must be worth an E/W punt at 6/1...

My bet:

Cameroon E/W

[meatman]

Cameroon to win outright @ 8.50 Betfair 4/10

Cameroon to win group C @ 1.76 10bet 7/10

Well I’ve been thinking about this for quite a few weeks now and I’ve finally come to a conclusion. To be honest I’ve had Cameroon in mind for a while and I’ll tell my reasons why. Ok firstly I’m going to start off with the squad. Right at the back they have arguably the best goalkeeper (Kameni) in the tournament which could be so important - especially if they become involved in any penalty shoot outs. The backline looks relatively strong with plenty of experience, Rigobert Song especially knows how these tournaments work. The midfield also looks to be solid with the likes of Jean Makoun in it. Upfront they will rely on one man to score goals - Samuel Eto’o. But then again he can be relied upon as long as he can avoid injury. I always like the idea of 1 star man leading an attack force and he is the perfect example of how it can be done. Arguably there are better teams in specific areas than Cameroon, but as an all round strength, they look to be in good shape. The next thing to look at is the draw of this CAN. Cameroon are for me, in arguably the weakest of all the groups. Egypt are unlikely to cause to many problems this time around and whilst Sudan could surprise, I would imagine Cameroon should be able to make light work of them.

I’m pretty sure Cameroon will win the group and they would then face the runners up of Group D - likely to be Tunisia or Angola perhaps. This would be one of the easier quarter final draws, so it would appear Cameroon have a nice route into the semis. To be honest, then it gets tough, but that goes for everyone and a meeting with the Ivory Coast would probably happen. But Cameroon have the ability IMO and I like odds of 8.50 on the exchanges. Should they get to the final then I’d be able to make a guaranteed profit by laying off so I’m willing to stake 4/10 here. For them to win the group @ 1.77 is far too big as well, like I said, unless Egypt prove to be especially difficult then it should be a very straightforward ride.




Senegal to win outright @ 16.50 Betfair 2/10

Senegal to win Group D @ 2.76 10bet 4/10


This team is my dark horse for the tournament and I feel there is some definite value. Again, I’ll start with the squad and again I’ll go with a team that has a keeper who I rate highly. Tony Sylva could be very useful in this and I know for a fact he’s a decent penalty saver. Senegal appear to have no massive stars on paper, but they have a lot of good players in all eras of the pitch. They should work well as a team, and with a third of their squad playing at French clubs, I know a lot of them very well. I think in attack, Mamadou Niang could prove to be especially useful and he’s been on fire for Marseille this year.

Senegal have a good draw and group D is the only one not to contain a ‘massive nation’ South Africa and Angola look to be pretty weak so only Tunisia should realistically stop Senegal winning the group. It is important to clam the win because if they finish 2nd then a game against Cameroon in the quarters would be very difficult. But they will probably end up facing Egypt or maybe Sudan if they end up surprising. For me, Senegal have an excellent chance of making it to the semis. All they need do is get to the final and I’ll be able to lay off nicely, I believe that they have the ability to go all the way. There are a lot of things in their favour and I expect Senegal to be strong in this CAN. Odds of 2.76 on them winning the group are way too big IMO and this looks like a top bet as well.

[meatman]

Guinea to qualify from group A @ 2.25 Bluesquare 3/10

I think a few people have said Guinea could surprise in this group, they might even end up winning it. Ghana as hosts must be respected but it appears that not everything is quite going there way at the moment and there are still a lot of question marks surrounding them. In all reality though they should still win the group, which comes down to Morocco and Guinea for 2nd position. The north African side have disappointed before and I’m not sure they deserve such strong favouritism over Guinea here. I’d say odds of 2.25 offer some decent value and is worth betting on. With players like Pascal Feindouno and Ismael Bangoura then will score goals and that’s a key point. I’d say they have every chance of making the quarters.



Sudan to qualify from group D @ 6.50 Coral 1/10

Ok I will stake very small here, but I believe there is some value. Like I have said before in this thread, there have been some whispers about Sudan and that they could surprise. They haven’t had good results in preparation for this tournament, including one big 0-6 loss, but they weren’t at full strength. All of the players know each other well because they are selected from just 2 clubs. Cameroon should be away and gone as group winners and the other good thing is that they don’t play them until the last game, when Cameroon are likely to have already qualified so it could be easier. Egypt are expected to finish 2nd in this group and they aren’t a bad team, but there’s no way Sudan should be this big, so I’ll have 1 unit on them.



Ivory Coast to win group B @ 2.20 Bet365 3/10


Well the Ivories are many people favourites to win this competition and they should go quite a long way. Group B is definitely hard one and Nigeria and very strong opponents, bit I feel that Ivory Coast can pip them to get top spot. Mali cant be underestimated either but you’d have to think that the strength of the big 2 will be too much. A lot will rest on the opening group game between Ivory Coast and Nigeria, as long as they don’t lose it then they should get top spot IMO. We all know a lot about the attacking potential of the elephants and they are sure to score a lot of goals, which could be important should they tie with Nigeria at the top of the group. I think that 2.20 is quite a big price to see them at the summit and I’ll take a bit of it with 3/10 stakes. It would also potentially be very advantageous to avoid Ghana in the quarter finals and with the hosts likely to top group A, it suddenly becomes important that the Ivory Coast get the job done.



Samuel Eto’o top goalscorer @ 6.0 Coral 3pts EW (1/4 the odds, a place 1-2-3-4)


We know this man is a quality striker and will lead the Cameroon attack force. Most of the goals that they score are likely to be through this man and he’ll be taking the penalties. I’m pretty sure Cameroon will be going a long way in this tournament, at least to the semi finals which would give him 5 games to become top scorer. Its also worth considering that he should be able to feast on some potentially poor defences in the group stages which will give an even better chance of scoring goals. On the negative side, there is the injury doubt, but it looks as though he has recovered perfectly in time for the tournament so hopefully he wont get a reoccurrence. I’ll bet each way @ 6.0 and as long as he finishes in the top 4, then I’d get a place. For me though, there’s looks excellent potential for this man to finish at the summit of the scoring charts and as long as he stays fit then I think the bet will win outright.



Mamadou Niang top goalscorer @ 17.0 Coral 1pt EW (1/4 the odds, a place 1-2-3-4)

Well for my dark horse top scorer then I’ll go for this man. I believe Senegal could go on and win this tournament, if all goes to plan then they should hopefully at least reach the semi finals. This will give Niang quite a few matches to score goals in and also the quality of opponents shouldn’t be too strong in group D. Its not as if they will be playing against any of the big boys who would have a lot of possession against Senegal. Niang has been in great form this year for a Marseille side that hasn’t been playing too well. Already they appear to miss him greatly and his finishing touch is excellent, confidence will be high. I’m not sure who will be taking Senegal’s penalties, but I’d imagine Niang would be a strong contender, so this is another factor to consider. Odds of 16/1 are pretty decent IMO, especially as I consider Senegal could go a long way. I’ll have 1 unit each way on him, and get a small profit should he place. If he could go all the way and top score outright then all the better.

[Mr Freeze]

Nigeria and Tunisia both look good value to me.

[Tulenos]

PP are running a book on top Premiership scorer and Drogba looks a worthy fav @ 7/2

[Djslutmonkey]

That didn't last long, 9/4 now

[friskyfitz]

Event	Ghana v Guinea
Selection	+2.5 goals
Strength	10/10
Date	20/01/2008
Bookmaker/Price	Betfair @ 2.38 (Back)
Reasoning	Ghana v Guinea At last, The competition begins... The opening fixture will be all about Ghana but people should not under-estimate Guinea either. While Ghana have undoubtably, one of the strongest Midfields in the competition with Essien and Muntari among the familar names, they also have a bit of a shortness elsewhere. Gyan will be their main strenght upfront and WHU's Painstill and Mensah will most likely play in defence and both are capable of poor showings. Appiah is missing through injury and Kingston is reportedly unfit so Ghana may not be as strong as first thought. Guinea will be massive outsiders here but that tag is truely unjust as they are ranked in the top three african teams. Bangour will be the one who most know. The Kiev striker should excel in a competition like this. Along with Mansare and Feindouno, they possess great attack minded players. While I cant trust Guinea to win this one although they are SERIOUS value at 13/2 with Bet365 (The exchanges are again shorter). Remember Guinea will be happy with a draw here against the hosts, I feel that with two attack minded teams contesting the opener, that there should be a few goals in it. Betfair layers are offering you 2.38 for that to happen. Ive just gobbled that up!! +2.5 goals @ 2.38 Betfair (£228 available)

[kevshat]

A couple of small outrights for me.

1pt ew Mali to win African Cup of Nations 20/1 Ladbrokes

Whenever they've qualified for the ANC, Mali have never finished worse than 4th. They've had problems in the past with their fans kicking off but that only shows the passion that the country has for football. They've got some stars of the big leagues in their side too which will help them. Freddy Kanoute, Mahamadou Diarra and Mohamed Sikkoko are all well known names. Seydou Keita is at Seville and Stoke fans will know of Mamady Sidebe. They've also a few players playing in the top league in France too so there's quality in their squad. They are in a trickyish group with Ivory Coast and Nigeria with Benin seemingly making up the numbers but if they can beat either Ivory Coast or Nigeria then the draw opens up and they could make the latter stages again.

1pt ew Angola to win African Cup of Nations 66/1 Sportingbet

Angola have done well in the recent past on the big stages. They not only qualified for the world cup but performed well there when they got there. A narrow defeat to Portugal was followed by draws with Mexico and Iran and if they perform like that here they could surprise a few at a big price. Figueiredo is their main man in midfield while Flavio - their goalscorer in the world cup is their main man up front. Rui Marques plays in England with Leeds. Angola are in an open group which is expected to be dominated by Senegal but that's not a certainty and once again if they can get through the group the latter stages could well await.

[kevshat]

One for the opener.

3pts Guinea +1AH vs Ghana 1.78 Ladbrokes

It's always dangerous to take on the hosts in this tournament but it's the opening game of the event and with both having easier matches to come on paper, this could well end as a stalemate. For this bet to lose Ghana have to win by 2 goals but without Stephen Appiah's creativity and the lack of a real quality striker I'm struggling to see where Ghana are going to score goals from. Guinea will rely on Pascal Feindouno's creativity and goals while Dynamo Kiev's Ismael Bangoura looks the class striker in the game. He's already netted against Man Utd this season so should be full of confidence. I don't think it'll be an open game and a draw really wouldn't surprise me. Guinea have the personnel to win though and with a 1 goal defeat getting us our money back I'll take the visitors on the AH.

[Tulenos]

Having watched the first half, I can see some value in

Ghana @ 1.75 BF (the 1st half was one-way traffic)

Over 5 corners @ 1.91 PP

[Sambuca]

what do you think about tomorrow matches?

[meatman]

This thread is now only going to be for CAN outright bets etc


For discussion abouy matchday 1 games of the tournament, then please post in here

African Cup of Nations 20 - 23 January 2008