African Cup of Nations - 24th - 27th Jan

[Youssef]

I trust Egypt & Cameroon will deliver on Saturday to complete my combo.

In fact, I'm considering placing bets on the handicaps on both as well, as the handicaps on offer are laughable.

Egypt -1.5 is a bit of a low handicap. The fair handicap IMHO would be -2.25, because Egypt is effective upfront, Sudan is midiocre in ther defence, and -most of all- Egypt traditionally produces big wins over Sudan. The last couple of games were in the Germany 2006 qualifying group and Egypt won 3-0 in Khartoum and 6-1 in Cairo.

Also in the Arab games in Cairo in 2007 Egypt won by 4-1 eventhough Sudan was represented by the Olympic tem and Egypt were represented by domestic players + Hossam Ghaly

In fact I don't remember when was the last time Egypt could not win over Sudan by at least 3 goals margin.

Egypt should also have a full squad with skipper Ahmad Hassan having served his 2nd of a 2 games ban vs Cameroon, which means he will be available for Shehata as well. In fact, Shehata put it beste when he said "my problem is 11 players will start, but I have 12 others and I cannot exactlt call them reserves". With the likes of Abu Treika, Ibrahim Saeed & El Mohammadi Saleh kept on the bench vs Cameroon (though Abu Treika & Salej took parts later on) and Hassan now available, Egypt have a luxury that's rarely ever available for any national squad in a major tournament.. ROTATION.

I'm not sure -yet- whom will be the starting XI, but I know Egypt can actually change up to 6 starters without affecting the overall performance (and by "can" I mean ability not possibility, as noone actually knows how Shehata thinks until he does announce the actual starting line-up)

As Sudan's best stars (ex: Faisal Ajab) failed to deliver, the coach Mazda has decided to exclude both Ajab & Mujahed Muhammad from the game against Egypt because they were very poor and disappointing in the 1st game.

The 1st game though will feature Cameroon vs Zambia, and the bookies made a BIG mistake in offering only -0.75 on Cameroon. It could be easily -2 and I would still back Cameroon.

The Lions did NOT appear bad against Egypt. EGYPT was fabulous which made them look limited only in comparison, but it certainly does not mean they arenot one of the strongest squads in Ghana.

Now with their backs to the wall they will fight like the lions they are, and Zambia simply does not have what it takes to stop them.

Zambia on the other hand were overrated after they won 3-0, but the fact is Sudan could have scored 2-3 goals easily had they just concentrated in their finishing.

Now if Sudan can create that many chances against Zambia, how many chances would you expect Cameroon to create? And poor finishing is certainly something you would not be acusing Cameroon strikers of, would you?

Suffice it to say, Egypt should easily cover the -1.5 handicap, while I would be really disappointed and surprised if cameroon doesn't win by at least 3 goals a margin.

[meatman]

Cameroon -1 AH @ 2.10 Fontbet 10/10

Over 2.5 goals @ 2.0 Canbet 3/10

So the time has now come for me to bet what will surely be my biggest of the tournament. I honestly cannot believe bookies are so generous today and Cameroon’s odds are simply massive. You can even get 1.60 on the straight win if you want, but I’m convinced it will be comfortable and they will win with style. Lets look at the Egypt game - as Youssef says, the defending champions played some superb football in the 1st half, the best I have seen anyone so far in the tournament. Zidan was awesome and ripped apart Cameroon with his pace and skill. But after the break Cameroon responded and played much better, it was as if they needed a kick up the backside just to get them going.

As a result of Zambia’s win against Sudan by such a big margin, its essential that Cameroon win this match. I honestly think if they draw it then their competition could be over, although mathematically they would still stay in it. Cameroon are a class team, certainly in terms of attack where they should be able to rip through a Zambian defence that looked so poor against Sudan. I honestly haven’t seen a more flattering 3-0 in all of my life, Sudan probably should’ve won the match themselves!!. I just cannot see Cameroon slipping up in what is sure to be an action packed game. I’m also going to have a punt on the over 2.5 goals here because that price decent as well. Zambia wont be coming out with defensive tactics, for a start they just haven’t got the weapons to be able to do that. I wouldn’t be surprised to see them score a goal, but Cameroon are capable of getting 5 or 6 themselves here if they really need to. This is a big bet for me, and once again I’m putting a lot of eggs into the Cameroon basket. This time I’m almost certain they wont let me down.


Egypt v Sudan over 2.5 goals @ 1.61 Bluequare 5/10

One thing that was so striking about the opening round of Group C games was the willingness of all 4 teams to constantly attack. None of them are especially strong in defence and all of the strength and power is in the final third of the pitch. Egypt showed some great skill and pace against Cameroon and there’s no doubt that they’ll be able to breach this poor Sudan defence quite a few times. But I’m not so sure that Egypt will be able to keep it so tight at the back themselves and Sudan could get on the scoresheet. I don’t know how they failed to hit the net facing Zambia, only some poor finishing and some good goalkeeping shut them out. I wouldn’t be completely surprised to see them give Egypt a tough game and I’m not sure that the favourites will cover a -2 AH line. The safest bet is the overs IMO, because this match should be open with both teams always attacking. I expect Egypt will win by something like a 3-1 or 4-1 scoreline, but even if Sudan cant score, then Egypt are quite capable of scoring all the goals necessary for my bet to win.

[meatman]

Cameroon do the job by winning 5-1

Zambia didnt play too badly and the scoreline was probably a bit harsh, but some poor defensive errors cost them badly.

[Tulenos]

Excellent result, thanks meatman that you convinced me to back the handicap, too

BTW, some advice for over backers in the cards market - always check if that crazy JApanese chap is or is not in charge - he hates showing cards. This was already his second match, and there were not too many tackles, but especially in the first one he was over-lenient.

[meatman]

Originally Posted by Tulenos

Excellent result, thanks meatman that you convinced me to back the handicap, too

BTW, some advice for over backers in the cards market - always check if that crazy JApanese chap is or is not in charge - he hates showing cards. This was already his second match, and there were not too many tackles, but especially in the first one he was over-lenient.

Cheers Tulenos

Yeh a good point about that referee - he only showed 3 yellows in his previous game (Senegal - Tunisia) and 2 of those were for diving. To be honest, I have to praise his approach, and his performance in that Senegal match was good IMO, He punished the cheats but also allowed the players to be quite physical, something I like to see.

But yeh he doesn't like to bring his cards out - there was that incident today when the Zambian player reacted, I've seen guys been sent off for that before lol, but there wasn't even a hint of a yellow!!

[Tulenos]

A bit risky, but after the first half I'm backing no more goals (1-0 correct score @ 6.8) to lay back later

[Tulenos]

LAid back dbl stake @ 2.88 so "all green", slightly bigger win if no more goals

[meatman]

Nice 1 Tulenos

now you can cheer for my over 2.5 haha

I dont deserve to win it, the game has been much tighter than I expected, still you never know

[MartyMcG_1967]

Originally Posted by meatman

Cameroon -1 AH @ 2.10 Fontbet 10/10

Over 2.5 goals @ 2.0 Canbet 3/10

So the time has now come for me to bet what will surely be my biggest of the tournament. I honestly cannot believe bookies are so generous today and Cameroon’s odds are simply massive. You can even get 1.60 on the straight win if you want, but I’m convinced it will be comfortable and they will win with style. Lets look at the Egypt game - as Youssef says, the defending champions played some superb football in the 1st half, the best I have seen anyone so far in the tournament. Zidan was awesome and ripped apart Cameroon with his pace and skill. But after the break Cameroon responded and played much better, it was as if they needed a kick up the backside just to get them going.

As a result of Zambia’s win against Sudan by such a big margin, its essential that Cameroon win this match. I honestly think if they draw it then their competition could be over, although mathematically they would still stay in it. Cameroon are a class team, certainly in terms of attack where they should be able to rip through a Zambian defence that looked so poor against Sudan. I honestly haven’t seen a more flattering 3-0 in all of my life, Sudan probably should’ve won the match themselves!!. I just cannot see Cameroon slipping up in what is sure to be an action packed game. I’m also going to have a punt on the over 2.5 goals here because that price decent as well. Zambia wont be coming out with defensive tactics, for a start they just haven’t got the weapons to be able to do that. I wouldn’t be surprised to see them score a goal, but Cameroon are capable of getting 5 or 6 themselves here if they really need to. This is a big bet for me, and once again I’m putting a lot of eggs into the Cameroon basket. This time I’m almost certain they wont let me down.


Egypt v Sudan over 2.5 goals @ 1.61 Bluequare 5/10

One thing that was so striking about the opening round of Group C games was the willingness of all 4 teams to constantly attack. None of them are especially strong in defence and all of the strength and power is in the final third of the pitch. Egypt showed some great skill and pace against Cameroon and there’s no doubt that they’ll be able to breach this poor Sudan defence quite a few times. But I’m not so sure that Egypt will be able to keep it so tight at the back themselves and Sudan could get on the scoresheet. I don’t know how they failed to hit the net facing Zambia, only some poor finishing and some good goalkeeping shut them out. I wouldn’t be completely surprised to see them give Egypt a tough game and I’m not sure that the favourites will cover a -2 AH line. The safest bet is the overs IMO, because this match should be open with both teams always attacking. I expect Egypt will win by something like a 3-1 or 4-1 scoreline, but even if Sudan cant score, then Egypt are quite capable of scoring all the goals necessary for my bet to win.

Great pick mate, well done

[meatman]

Originally Posted by meatman

I dont deserve to win it, the game has been much tighter than I expected, still you never know

lol just shows you do never know

I managed to sneak an over in there, didn't really deserve it, but I'll take it

you greened up just in time Tulenos

I'd also like to say welldone to Youssef who provided some excellent write ups for todays games and his predictions were spot on

so for me personally, this was the best day of the CAN so far, hopefully things can get even better as well


@ Marty - cheers

[Tulenos]

Probably also the best one so far, namely thanks to Cameroon's performance - the Egypt game was a bit difficult to watch, tbh. Some nice wirte-ups by Youssef and meatman, too

Yeah, greened up in time, but would take such odds any day for a goal being scored in the second half, especially after such a first half (which continued in the second, too)

I personally don't post a whole lotta predictionas here as I concentrate on the HT and correct score/next goal markets on the group stage

Tomorrow looks a bit tighter at first sight.

[Tulenos]

Well, adding tomorrow's games as they still belong to the second round of the group stage

Sunday 27 January 2008	Home	Draw	Away	BPP
Senegal v Angola (17:00GMT)	1.78	3.65	5.90	101%	Details »
Hide « Senegal v Angola
Tunisia v South Africa (19:30GMT)	2.13	3.35	4.33	100%	Details »

[Tulenos]

This D group is the most open one - each team has just one point after a series of draw on the opening group day. Right now I can see some value in the 2.13 for Tunisia, although the not-that-experienced SA squad performed above expectations in the first match.

[meatman]

Senegal -0.75 AH @ 2.03 Pinnacle 4/10

There’s no doubt in my eyes that Senegal are the strongest team in this group and will go on to win their next 2 games. They should’ve beaten Tunisia, but because of missed chances and that superb late equaliser, they had to settle for a 2-2 draw. Nevertheless, we saw enough signs in that game that they have potential in all areas of the pitch and should be too strong for Angola today. In my honest opinion, I wasn’t very impressed with them against South Africa, and although nearly won, they probably deserved to lose. The South African attack force was having a lot of success against the defence, but Angola were lucky that they didn’t take their chances. I somehow don’t expect Senegal will be as wasteful. Angola will fight hard but I just think they will be outclassed in this one. I don’t expect a hammering but I can see Senegal winning by something like a 2-0 or 3-1 scoreline, hence is why I quite like the -0.75 AH.



Tunisia -0.25 AH @ 1.85 Canbet 3/10

Well this is a key match and on their showings in their opening group games. then there isn’t so much perhaps between the two teams. Tunisia had the tougher game and did well to draw against Senegal, scoring a couple of excellent goals in the process. They have quality pace and skill although can be a bit hit and miss going forward. South Africa I expect will be positive here and create a few chances, the question is whether or not they can take them or not? They scored a great goal themselves against Angola but wasted a real hatful of opportunities as well. I don’t think Tunisia will be as easy to break down so they will have to be more clinical - players like Zuma are decent guys but lack the final finishing touch. I feel that the North Africans have a bit more class then their opponents and that the extra flair and skill factor could prove to be vital. I’ll take Tunisia on the -0.25 AH as it offers some draw cover, although fairly small stakes.

[oceanxx]

Tunisia vs SA

I think Tunisia will be fave here over SA.
Tunisia has been improving since the appointment of Roger Lemerre. 2-2 draw against Senegal, they really show no fear against a star-studded Senegal team. I like the way Tunisia play their football. The group is at its tightest with all team level at a point each. Today game will be crucial and whoever wins will have the cake in their mouth.

SA went through a hard time, before they finally win some games but those games are never against better teams. Canada and some minnow of African football, Tunisia is at a higher class, much higher than them. SA is still undergoing a rebuilding phase and 2 years for them a tremendous improvement for the WC is really a hard call to make.

Purely based on their recent form and playing style, But I would say SA is looking fave to beat them and qualify for knockout stage. it so i try SA DNB small stake

S Africa DNB

[Youssef]

Senegal - Angola

If you’ve been following this tournament closely so far you should by now have been able to make some conclusions/deductions not only depending on the tournament games, but also relating it all to history and qualifying paths of each team.

These two topped their respectve groups 6 & 7 in the qualifiers. Senegal won all 3 home games scoring 11 and conceing 1 in them, but on the road the only drew goalless to Mozambique, 1-1 min Tanzania and lost 0-1 to Bourkina Faso.

Now relate these results to the game from the 1^st round vs Tunisia and you can tell Senegal is overrated an only looked good in comparison because Tunisia were slow and made way too many mistakes in the backline.

Angola also won 3 home games in the qualifiers scoring 12 ans conceding 2, while on the road the only managed to beat neighbouring unseeded Swaziland by 2-0, got a 1-1 draw in Eritrea, and lost 1-2 in Kenya.

Again once we relate this to the draw vs South Africa we can see Angola can score (scored in every game) but have a porous defence line (only 2 clean sheet were against Swaziland in both games).

In fact, Abgola’s defence in no better than Tunisia’s, thus Senegal may –once again- look good upfront, but the question is can they hold their own at the back where Angola’s most strong?

Both teams forfeited 3 pts and settled for just 1 in their respective opening games. Furthermore, Angola in particular was slow upfront and it was Flavio Amado’s worst game in months. The South Africans sspeed matched that of Angoal’s strikers individually and outplayed them in terms of teamwork.

I feel both teams would settle for yet another draw here. For Senegal they would have put the strongest opponents behind them and will be ready to get 3 points on the expense of ambitious but inexperienced Bafana Bafana.

For Angola though, it would be a good result and the live to fight another day, whereas a loss could mean they have their fate to be decided by others feet as well as their own in the final round.

But I fear that Angola cannot rely on a defensive approach either as they would be easily broken down. They need to control the midfiled to keep the Senegalese at bay.

As for the team news, Senegal welcomes back henri camara whom have trained with them and maybe given the green light to participate some time into the game, but basically are expected to field the same starting XI that they did vs Tunisia.

Angola have 2 changes from the line-up that featured against South Africa in the shape of Kalanga replacing injury hit Figueiredo (knee) and Mateus playing in the midfield instead of Mendonca.

Probable Line-ups:

Senegal: Sylva, N'Daw, Diawara, A.Faye, Beye, N'Doye, Sall, Mendy, Diouf, Kamara, Niang.

Angola: Lama, Airosa, Kali, Marques, Yamba Asha, Ze Kalanga, Mateus, Gilberto, Macanga, Flavio, Manucho.

Prediction: While theoretically it should be a Tiranga Lions win, something tells me the Palanca Negra will not go down that easily. A draw is not out of question and the best bet IMHO is a double chance on Senegal (win or draw).

Predicted score-line: 1-1/2-1

Tunisia – South Africa

This is the most Northen nation of the continent vs the most Southern. In recent years South Africa have almost totally vanished off the International scene, while Tunisia may have been present but not as the super power they were once considered to be.

In the qualifiers both teams made it through only thanks to being 2 of the best 3 runner-ups with Tunisia coming 2^nd after SUDAN, and South Africa occupying 2^nd place after Zambia. (How impressive is that for either?)

The results were not at all impressive either, as Tuinisia scored an overall of 13 goals in 6 games, but 7 of which were against helpless Seychelles (whom are as good as their name tells as, btw) while they drew goalless to Mauritius on the road, and barely won 1-0 at home over Sudan before they were beaten in Khartoum by 2-3.

South Africa’s goal tally only summed up to 10, and like Tunisia 7 of them were against Chad. The only other game they managed to win was in Zambia (1-0) while they drew goalless at home to Congo (not DR Congo) and 1-1 on the road before they lost at home to Zambia by 1-3

Now relate those results to the games you saw, and you could easily tell neither team is by any chance a threat to future opponents.

In fact, this group is the weakest by far compared to the other 3, yet is the most competitive as all 4 teams all closely matched. (Benin could have won this group had they been lucky enough to be drawn against this bunch).

The last time tese two went H2H Tunisia won 2-0 thanks to Dos Santos (Egypt 2006)

This group still has all strings wriggled with each of the teams having an almost equal chance of qualifying and this only means that all possibilities are open and anything can happen today.

Based on the above I would supect Tunisia are still the better team of the two, considering they are more experienced, not to mention EXPERTS in time wasting. The thing is Tunisia’s defence is a sham, while South Africa’s offence is blind to target.

South Africa’s will certainly improve with time under Parreira as they gain experience, but it won’t be an instant impression and I can’t help but bet against them today.

Tunisia will have Mehdi Nafti available once more and there are indications that Lemerre will make some changes to his starting line-up, thus Mikari may be in contention for Bekri (Mikari’s better for their attack), and depending on how Lemerre responds to the press/fans anger over Gaidi we may also see Abdi in Gaidi’s place.

South Africa’ Parreira will stick to the same starting line-up that played against Angola as he is looking for more harmony as well as high morals.

It should be a tight Tunisian win considering their superiority upfront vs vulnerability in the back as opposed to the South Africans pace all over the field and ineffectiveness upfront.

Predicted scoreline: 2-1

[kevshat]

I've been debating all day whether to take SA on an asian or to take the unders. I'll go with the unders though.

4pts South Africa vs Tunisia - Under 2.5 goals 1.77 Centrebet

This group is pretty tight and if the earlier match were to finish as a draw then I can see this one being tight too. Both know that a draw will keep them both in it and it may just be that with Angola, supposedly the lesser side in the group to play last, Tunisia will settle for a draw. Tunisia are fairly good at the back while South Africa looked pretty solid against Angola on Wednesday. There aren't many top attacking names on show so I don't expect a game full of chances and I think we'll stay under the 2.5 goals.

[Wanderer89]

Come on senegal. They have so many decent players and their odds came in useful for a double/treble. Not performing as they should though are they