Africa Cup of Nations - matches 28/1 - 31/1

[Tulenos]

Monday 28 January 2008	Home	Draw	Away	BPP
Ghana v Morocco (17:00GMT)	2.06	3.45	4.33	101%	Details »
Hide « Ghana v Morocco
Guinea v Namibia (17:00GMT)	1.26	6.70	17.00	100%	Details »
Hide « Guinea v Namibia
Tuesday 29 January 2008	Home	Draw	Away	BPP
Ivory Coast v Mali (17:00GMT)	2.60	2.06	6.60	102%	Details »
Hide « Ivory Coast v Mali
Nigeria v Benin (17:00GMT)	1.30	6.00	15.00	100%	Details »
Hide « Nigeria v Benin
Wednesday 30 January 2008	Home	Draw	Away	BPP
Cameroon v Sudan (17:00GMT)	1.16	9.20	20.00	102%	Details »
Hide « Cameroon v Sudan
Egypt v Zambia (17:00GMT)	1.53	4.80	8.50	98%	Details »
Hide « Egypt v Zambia
Thursday 31 January 2008	Home	Draw	Away	BPP
Senegal v South Africa (17:00GMT)	1.02	1.02	1.02	294%	Details »
Hide « Senegal v South Africa
Tunisia v Angola (17:00GMT)	2.10	1.71	3.20	137%	Details »

[Tulenos]

Mind you, the second matches in the group playing on Thursday have just finished so no real market has formed as yet. BTW, if Tunisia and Angola muster a draw, they are both through and Senegal and SA are out.

[kevshat]

Ditto Ivory Coast and Mali .

Both underdogs for me on Monday.

3pts Morocco +0.5AH vs Ghana 1.91 Canbet

Ghana haven't impressed me one iota in this tournament. Fair do's they're the hosts so the pressure is on but they've shown me nothing really. Their 2 strikers are the worst strike force of the fancied nations but at the back and in midfield especially they are very good. Morocco have scored goals from all over the shop in this competition so far and I've just a sneaky feeling Henri Michel will bring back hattrick hero from the 1st game Soufiane Alloudi at some point in this match.

The proposed walk out of the Gyan brothers from the Ghana squad can't have done too much for morale, neither is the Ghanaians on radio shows slagging their players off. Claude le Roy is right, the pressure is on Morocco but they've shown they can attack as well as any side in this tournament and with Ghana struggling for goals up front, Morocco may well be able to commit an extra man to go and get the result they require. With everything that's gone on I expect Ghana to be happy with a draw which sees them through so Morocco on the +0.5AH is my play here.

3pts Namibia +2AH vs Guinea 1.92 Canbet

Guinea come into this match without their influential playmaker Pascal Feindouno. They know any sort of a win should put them through to the quarter finals but the loss of Feindouno really can't be underestimated. If he doesn't score Guinea's goals he has a say in them by setting them up and he'll be a big miss. Namibia were written off after getting walloped by Morocco in their 1st game but they performed much better against Ghana and will fancy their chances of getting something from this game.

Theoretically Namibia can still qualify from this group with a decent win so there's no reason to suggest they'll be easy pickings for Guinea. And that's a Guinea side that all through qualification for this event only won 1 match by 3 goals and that was the last one which Feindouno scored twice in. Ismael Bangoura will be a danger but Guinea aren't prolific scorers that the likes of Morocco are and I think Namibia will stay within this handicap or give us a push at the very worst.

[Wanderer89]

That ghana and morroco game is so difficult to predict, i'll probably stay out of it but if i did bet i agree with the post above, i think morroco can beat ghana who have been poor in both of their games so far.

[torres09]

cant agree more with namibia. after being thumped by morocco, everybody seemed to write them off. however they are playing reasonably well as from the ghana match. im going along the same line with u kev.

[Youssef]

The games of today are crucial and have been surrounde by many rumours (and some mishaps).

Between the Gyna bros threateneing to lave Ghana's camp, to the bribe attempt (by an Asian cyndicate) to Namibia players, and the rumours of Ghana & Morocco fixing a 3-2 win for the Moroccans (in order for both teams to go through) I cannot have much faith in any pich.

However, I agree with the Namibia +2 in essence because Namibia now will have to try not to lose at all, as they were the ones reporting the bribery attempt and this works as an extra motive, plus they're at ease with nothing to lose.

On the other hand Guinea will be missing their skippera and main striker, and I can't see them doing much better w/o him.

Morocco v Ghana also has the inclination for a big score as Morocco must go all-out attack and Ghana may find some gaps in the Moroccan backline. However, Ghana's defence ain't that good either so games on both sides is more likely than not.

[Anglophile]

Originally Posted by kevshat

Ditto Ivory Coast and Mali .

Both underdogs for me on Monday.

3pts Morocco +0.5AH vs Ghana 1.91 Canbet

Ghana haven't impressed me one iota in this tournament. Fair do's they're the hosts so the pressure is on but they've shown me nothing really. Their 2 strikers are the worst strike force of the fancied nations but at the back and in midfield especially they are very good. Morocco have scored goals from all over the shop in this competition so far and I've just a sneaky feeling Henri Michel will bring back hattrick hero from the 1st game Soufiane Alloudi at some point in this match.

The proposed walk out of the Gyan brothers from the Ghana squad can't have done too much for morale, neither is the Ghanaians on radio shows slagging their players off. Claude le Roy is right, the pressure is on Morocco but they've shown they can attack as well as any side in this tournament and with Ghana struggling for goals up front, Morocco may well be able to commit an extra man to go and get the result they require. With everything that's gone on I expect Ghana to be happy with a draw which sees them through so Morocco on the +0.5AH is my play here.

Massive move towards this in the last 15 mins, Ghana went from evens to 11/10 on Betfair. I got a feeling it's gonna get even bigger.

With what Yossef said in mind i find it hard finding something worth betting on today but I've placed 1/4 point on Morocco to score 3 goals against Ghana at 12/1 value is i have it priced at 9/1(10% chance).

Ghana have not impressed me at all either and with all the turbulence in the squad i think Morocco got a good chance of getting goals which is also what they'll be going for. If Guinea scores against Namibia it will put more pressure on them and they'll be attacking even more.

Edit : the 12/1 is with skybet

[nicko]

Originally Posted by Youssef

The games of today are crucial and have been surrounde by many rumours (and some mishaps).

Between the Gyna bros threateneing to lave Ghana's camp, to the bribe attempt (by an Asian cyndicate) to Namibia players, and the rumours of Ghana & Morocco fixing a 3-2 win for the Moroccans (in order for both teams to go through) I cannot have much faith in any pich.

However, I agree with the Namibia +2 in essence because Namibia now will have to try not to lose at all, as they were the ones reporting the bribery attempt and this works as an extra motive, plus they're at ease with nothing to lose.

On the other hand Guinea will be missing their skippera and main striker, and I can't see them doing much better w/o him.

Morocco v Ghana also has the inclination for a big score as Morocco must go all-out attack and Ghana may find some gaps in the Moroccan backline. However, Ghana's defence ain't that good either so games on both sides is more likely than not.

If reports of a fix are a fact, then the game will be closely monitored by all authorities ever so closely. At this level and the game being a decider i.e. in the spotlight and everybody aware how serious FIFA, UEFA and the Olympic Co are taking the game - fixing recently, I don't think the hosts will risk getting involved in such thing.

[Anglophile]

I've also placed 1/10 point on Muntari to score in both halves at 66/1 as i think he's capable of doing it and with Morocco going for a win i think Ghana will be able to play a more effective counter attacking football which i think will suit them better than having to build the attacks slowly from the midfield which i think failed so badly against Namibia.

With Ghana's relatively weak strike force I think it's likely that the goals could come from midfield and Muntari is certainly capable of scoring them, he's also a danger on free-kicks.

I've also placed 1/15 point on Alloudi to score a hattrick at 150/1, he simply shouldn't be that big. While i do think Ghana are going to be better up front today i still find them a huge liability at the back and with Morocco going for the goals i think they might just find them.

Both bets placed with Bluesq.

[puntersmate]

I´m not sure the Namibians will be good enough or motivated enough to take something from Guinea who will start without captain and big star Feindouno which will give Namibia a boost. They´re still mathematically in with a shout, however slim, and they´ll have no choice but to go for it.
That might be the Moroccan way of thinking too, in which case they´ll need to go on the offensive against the hosts and I don´t think the task is an impossible one.
Morocco +½ @ 1,88 is the best I can do.

[nicko]

Ghana needs to top the group if they want to avoid Ivory Coast next, so they need at least a draw. Morocco are good team and they could surprise, but that will be hard vs extremely cautious hosts. If I understood the rules right and if Morocco wins and Guinea wins, there will be 3 teams with 6 points. What counts first is the H2H and goal difference in H2H. This way Morocco will have advantage over Ghana, Guinea will have advantage over Morocco, and Ghana - over Guinea. In such case total goal difference should decide if I got this one right. Now, suppose Guinea gets a convincing win over Namibia ( and Morocco wins ), Ghana should be out ?!?
Please correct me if I am wrong.....
Because if I am not then Ghana tonight is going out not to lose, Morocco - to win and Guinea to win. All analysis should start with this in mind. I do not involve Namibia here as from what I have seen they are poor - a good defensive game vs the hosts certainly doesn't make them contenders for second spot - on top of defending they also need to score and not just once. Namibia -1 EH ???? Now that will be the end of my betting posts with reasoning, I will only stick to the weekend bets thread....

[Youssef]

Originally Posted by nicko

If reports of a fix are a fact, then the game will be closely monitored by all authorities ever so closely. At this level and the game being a decider i.e. in the spotlight and everybody aware how serious FIFA, UEFA and the Olympic Co are taking the game - fixing recently, I don't think the hosts will risk getting involved in such thing.

If a team wants to fix a game, noone will ever be able to make anything stick unless it's PAID for (and even then it will be hard to make it stick). This one could go like, Morocco scoring an early goal.. Ghana must go all out attack.. then theu concede another, but soon pull back one. Ghana scores the draw in the 2nd half, then Morocco with nothing to lose press them back until they score a 3rd in the last 5 minutes. That's just one scenario...

Sweden drew 2-2 with Denmark in Euro finals to throw out Italy, and nobody touched them cuz there was no proof of a fix, eventhough it was obvious on the pitch and there were also rumours before the game.

P.S. NOT saying that this WILL be the case, but it's "possible"

[winningman]

Taking a risk tonight by backing Ghana in spite of all that has been said. I believe that Morocco will be too desperate & too eager pushing forward. With the likes of Muntari running the midfield, I feel Ghana could have an extra gear in them to score a couple of goals past Morocco.

Agree totally that this is a high-scoring game & I have loose change on Ghana scoring 3 or more.

3 - 2 Ghana...let's go!!!!!!

[Youssef]

Originally Posted by Anglophile

I've also placed 1/15 point on Alloudi to score a hattrick at 150/1, he simply shouldn't be that big. While i do think Ghana are going to be better up front today i still find them a huge liability at the back and with Morocco going for the goals i think they might just find them.

I think Alloudi is a major doubt at best. There's a 99% probability that this bet will be void and you will get a refund.

The man to look for in Morocco is Marouane Shamakh (of Bordeaux)

[friskyfitz]

Namibia v Guinea

While much has been made of Pascal Feindouno's absence today, I firmly believe it wont be as big as everyone feels. I said in an earlier write up of how good he is and no too many knew of him then but he's suddenly become a hero...but the simple fact he is that he can and will be replaced. Mansare will now become their main route forward and He and Bangoura should dominate against a poor Namibian side. I have seen nothing from Namibia so far to say that they can even get a result here. A small defeat against the hosts looked good on paper but in reality it wasnt a decent performance more one that was raked with errors and indecisiveness. Today's game will be more straight forward I feel and Guinea will win comfortably. While the price for them is short, I have scoured the sites looking for a decent bet and I feel that Skybet's odds of Guinea to score 4 or more is over-priced at 9/4. If they score first then I expect Namibian heads to fall. I fancy a big win for Guinea here despite Feindouno's absence.

Guinea to score 4 or more times @ 3.25 Skybet

[Youssef]

Originally Posted by nicko

Ghana needs to top the group if they want to avoid Ivory Coast next, so they need at least a draw.

Simple as you put it is not however the case. Cote d'Ivoire could easily lose to Mali if Ghana ends up 2nd. They've done it before in cairo when they fileded their 2nd string once they guranteed qualification with 6 pts from the opening 2 games, and Egypt were in with 4 points in search for a win or draw.

This will not necessarily be the case, but in addition to avoiding Ghana (IF they end up 2nd of group A), Cote d'Ivoire losing to Mali will also keep them from going H2H with Egypt in the semi-final. Yet again, replacing Egypt with cameroon might not be the best choice for the Ivoirians, so it's all "misty" so far. What I do know is I'm not placing bets on most of the final round games as there are bound to be some major surprises. (Again, remember Zimbabwe beating Ghana in the last tournament when a mere win would have put Ghana through?)

It's more of a chess game now, and most teams (especially those that already qualified) will be looking at whom they will have to face in the knock-outs before deciding what they want from the last game in the group.

[meatman]

Well my long term bet is Guinea to qualify @ 2.25

So I am taking no chances and betted the Morocco 3-2 @ 50/1 and the Morocco 4-3 @ 275/1 as cover

I can't see Guinea not beating Namibia, even if it does end up tight.

Ghana I believe will get the point they need to qualify, my guess is the game will end a draw. Even though they haven't actually impressed me too much, Ghana's host advantage can't be underestimated and they still do have a strong midfield and defence, even if their strikers are shit.

[nicko]

Originally Posted by Youssef

If a team wants to fix a game, noone will ever be able to make anything stick unless it's PAID for (and even then it will be hard to make it stick). This one could go like, Morocco scoring an early goal.. Ghana must go all out attack.. then theu concede another, but soon pull back one. Ghana scores the draw in the 2nd half, then Morocco with nothing to lose press them back until they score a 3rd in the last 5 minutes. That's just one scenario...

Sweden drew 2-2 with Denmark in Euro finals to throw out Italy, and nobody touched them cuz there was no proof of a fix, eventhough it was obvious on the pitch and there were also rumours before the game.

P.S. NOT saying that this WILL be the case, but it's "possible"

Agree a fix is possible, I just hope you are wrong as of my bet, clearly on hosts. Simple reasoning - good team plus home support plus avoiding Ivory Coast who I see as favourites and losing to Mali with this team will look more like a ''funny play''. Anyway, good luck with your bets...

[Postiga]

Originally Posted by Anglophile

I've also placed 1/10 point on Muntari to score in both halves at 66/1 as i think he's capable of doing it and with Morocco going for a win i think Ghana will be able to play a more effective counter attacking football which i think will suit them better than having to build the attacks slowly from the midfield which i think failed so badly against Namibia.

With Ghana's relatively weak strike force I think it's likely that the goals could come from midfield and Muntari is certainly capable of scoring them, he's also a danger on free-kicks.

I've also placed 1/15 point on Alloudi to score a hattrick at 150/1, he simply shouldn't be that big. While i do think Ghana are going to be better up front today i still find them a huge liability at the back and with Morocco going for the goals i think they might just find them.

Both bets placed with Bluesq.

He got the first in injury time of the first half, he grabs one in the second half for you mate.

[friskyfitz]

Originally Posted by friskyfitz

Namibia v Guinea

While much has been made of Pascal Feindouno's absence today, I firmly believe it wont be as big as everyone feels. I said in an earlier write up of how good he is and no too many knew of him then but he's suddenly become a hero...but the simple fact he is that he can and will be replaced. Mansare will now become their main route forward and He and Bangoura should dominate against a poor Namibian side. I have seen nothing from Namibia so far to say that they can even get a result here. A small defeat against the hosts looked good on paper but in reality it wasnt a decent performance more one that was raked with errors and indecisiveness. Today's game will be more straight forward I feel and Guinea will win comfortably. While the price for them is short, I have scoured the sites looking for a decent bet and I feel that Skybet's odds of Guinea to score 4 or more is over-priced at 9/4. If they score first then I expect Namibian heads to fall. I fancy a big win for Guinea here despite Feindouno's absence.

Guinea to score 4 or more times @ 3.25 Skybet

I couldnt have been more wrong..