Today's Value Bets

[undauntedtrier]

This is an experiment.I shall identify horses whose online odds about an hour before the first race of the day are considerably more generous than their betting forecast odds(as detailed by SPORTING LIFE ONLINE or ATTHERACES ONLINE) with the proviso that such horses were originally forecast as favourites or joint favourites.
My logic is that such horses were forecast as favourites or joint favourites on the basis of their recent form,and that their allocated tissue prices were calculated to reflect their true chances of winning.If for one reason or another,the odds on offer are considerably higher than the forecast tissues,we should stand a good chance of profiting from our bets if such horses are able to belie their inflated odds by running well during their races.
Hopefully there will be a qualifier or two for today(Sunday's) racing in the UK.
I'll post again about an hour before the first race.

[undauntedtrier]

Day 1,Sunday:

2.10 L'field,BLUE MISTRAL,5/2;7/1,2pts win
2.35 Bath,LUSCIOUS LIPS,4/1;14/1,1pt ew
2.45 L'field,BOLLYWOOD STYLE,11/2;8/1,2pts win
3.10 Bath,TERMINATE,7/2;8/1,2pts win
3.30 G'wood,LEAMINGTON,2/1;3/1,2pts win
3.45 Bath,CAPE ROYAL,4/1;5/1,2pts win
4.05 G'wood,ORCHARD SUPREME,7/2;6/1,2pts win
4.30 L'field,SHADED EDGE,3/1;4/1,2pts win

[undauntedtrier]

Day 1,Sunday,RESULTS:

2.10 L'field,BLUE MISTRAL,5/2;7/1,2pts win,LOST
2.35 Bath,LUSCIOUS LIPS,4/1;14/1,1pt ew,UNPLACED
2.45 L'field,BOLLYWOOD STYLE,11/2;8/1,2pts win,LOST
3.10 Bath,TERMINATE,7/2;8/1,2pts win,LOST
3.30 G'wood,LEAMINGTON,2/1;3/1,2pts win,LOST
3.45 Bath,CAPE ROYAL,4/1;5/1,2pts win,LOST
4.05 G'wood,ORCHARD SUPREME,7/2;6/1,2pts win,LOST
4.30 L'field,SHADED EDGE,3/1;4/1,2pts win,LOST

---

So far,bets 8,P/L = -16.00

[undauntedtrier]

So far,bets 8,P/L = -16.00

Day 2,Wednesday:

2.40 W'by,CASH ON FRIDAY,f/c 3/1,now 13/2,2 pts win
6.20 K'ton,ALFIE TUPPER,f'c 11/2,now13/2,2 pts win
7.50 K'ton,SOUTHWEST STAR,f'c 11/2,now 10/1,1 pt ew
8.20 K'ton,MISTER ELEGANT,f'c 3/1,now 9/2,2 pts win

[undauntedtrier]

Day 2,Wednesday,RESULTS:

2.40 W'by,G-F,CASH ON FRIDAY,f/c 3/1,now 13/2,2 pts win,U/P
6.20 K'ton,ST,ALFIE TUPPER,f'c 11/2,now13/2,2 pts win,P
7.50 K'ton,ST,SOUTHWEST STAR,f'c 11/2,now 10/1,1 pt ew,P
8.20 K'ton,ST,MISTER ELEGANT,f'c 3/1,now 9/2,2 pts win,P


So far,bets 12,P/L = -17.50

I'm tempted to modify the system to an each way system,but I'll resist doing so at this point.However,I've started noting when non-winners have run into a place(for future reference).I've also started recording the going to see if extremes of going affect the strike rate.

[undauntedtrier]

So far,bets 12,P/L = -17.50

Day 2,Thursday:

4.00 Br,G-S,SMASH 'N GRAB,f/c 7/2,now 9/2
5.00 Br,TWOSHEETSOFTHEWIND,f/c 3/1,now 4/1
4.50 L'low,G-F,SASSO,f/c 7/2,now 6/1
8.20 W'lv,STD,STEP THIS WAY,f/c 7/4,now 3/1
8.50 W'lv,LIGHTNING QUEEN,f/c 5/2,now 4/1
9.20 W'lv,DUSHSTORM,f/c 4/1,now 5/1

[undauntedtrier]

I'm sorry that I've no choice but to stop posting.You see,my work commitments have forced me to do so.