Simple Laying System Trial

[daftpegasus]

Originally Posted by daftpegasus

Today's selections:



I'm going to have a small e/w on Hansomelle today - if the current 6.0+ trends continue it will be a nice little return, if not, then at least the system wins!

100% today including Hansomelle letting my cash bet down by breaking the mould!!

Results of Lays Under 6.0
Number of Lays: 33
Winning Lays: 32
Strike rate: 97%
Starting Bank 1000pts
New Bank: 1279pts after commission
Profit/Loss: +279pts

Results of lays 6.0+
Number of Lays: 10
Winning Lays: 4
Strike rate:40%
Starting Bank 1000pts
New Bank: 704pts after commission
Profit/Loss: -296pts

Combined Results
Number of Lays: 43
Winning Lays: 36
Strike rate: 84%
Starting Bank 1000pts
New Bank: 983pts after commission
Profit/Loss: -17pts

[aelara]

Fantastic results again. Well done.

[welshman 2005]

, nice 1 pegasus, nice to see you have a successful thread so far, keep up the good work.

[aliando]

going very well mate!

[THE RAVEN]

Hi

Going great daftpgasus, usually I wont lay over 5/1 as I feel it is to difficult to pull back, your under 6s are working fine ,keep up the good tips.

Best wishes
RAVEN

[daftpegasus]

Today's Selections

04/06/2007	15:00	Leicester	Mad Rush	3.2
04/06/2007	16:20	Carlisle	Darcy's Pride	3.95
04/06/2007	16:50	Carlisle	Gifted Flame	6.6
04/06/2007	18:45	Thirsk	Hula Ballew	5.8
04/06/2007	19:30	Windsor	Matuza	6.2
04/06/2007	20:15	Thirsk	Florimund	3.9
04/06/2007	20:30	Windsor	Moon Quest	2.92

[daftpegasus]

Originally Posted by daftpegasus

Today's Selections

Not a great day. Yet again a small e/w bet on those over 6.0 ensures that the selections are nowhere in those races

Results of Lays Under 6.0
Number of Lays: 38
Winning Lays: 34
Strike rate: 89%
Starting Bank 1000pts
New Bank: 1201.3pts after commission
Profit/Loss: +201.3pts

Results of lays 6.0+
Number of Lays: 12
Winning Lays: 6
Strike rate:50%
Starting Bank 1000pts
New Bank: 733pts after commission
Profit/Loss: -277pts

Combined Results
Number of Lays: 50
Winning Lays: 40
Strike rate: 80%
Starting Bank 1000pts
New Bank: 924.3pts after commission
Profit/Loss: -75.7pts

[aliando]

head up mate - it can be very volatile this market, but concentrate on the overall profit/loss as this is the main aim.

you will always have bad days with this type of betting strategy, but similarly with the bookies, its about making the good days fund the bad days.

[daftpegasus]

Originally Posted by aliando

head up mate - it can be very volatile this market, but concentrate on the overall profit/loss as this is the main aim.

you will always have bad days with this type of betting strategy, but similarly with the bookies, its about making the good days fund the bad days.

No worries I'm in a good mood (although that could be down to playing well at poker for the first time in over a month). In some respects it's good to have a losing day under 6.0 as it's keeps everything in perspective. In truth I'm most gutted by the fact that I was so close to breaking even overall. It would have been great to do that despite all the big price losers!

I still think long term that over 6.0 will be profitable but all the stats to date say other wise.

Tommorrow is the end of week one of the trial so I'm looking foward to seeing where we stand then.

[aelara]

Pegasus
Just out of curiosity, how was Moon Quest a system selection when it has never run before?

[daftpegasus]

Originally Posted by aelara

Pegasus
Just out of curiosity, how was Moon Quest a system selection when it has never run before?

It's a system that looks at the favourite and trys to find reasons why it won't win. The fact that it had never run and others runners had good claims on the race made it a selection.

[daftpegasus]

Today's Selections:

15:30	Ripon	My Gacho	5
16:00	Ripon	Tetouan	3.25
16:15	Lingfield	Sweet Gale	3.7
18:40	Southwell	Prettilini	4.2
18:55	Fontwell	Moon Fleet	3.55
19:55	Fontwell	Matthew Muroto	4.9

[aelara]

Originally Posted by daftpegasus

It's a system that looks at the favourite and trys to find reasons why it won't win. The fact that it had never run and others runners had good claims on the race made it a selection.

OK, thanks for the explaination but surely this is flawed as no-one (except connections) could possibly know the ability of a horse before it runs for the first time and taken that this particular horse was from a top yard with a top jockey on board....?
Dont get me wrong, I'm not having a go at all. As I mentioned further up in the thread, I'm kind of a systems/stat person myself and have been following the thread very closely. You can probably tell I'm interested in this thread as I've been a member of the forum for ages and these are my first posts
Good luck with it anyway

[daftpegasus]

Originally Posted by aelara

OK, thanks for the explaination but surely this is flawed as no-one (except connections) could possibly know the ability of a horse before it runs for the first time and taken that this particular horse was from a top yard with a top jockey on board....?
Dont get me wrong, I'm not having a go at all. As I mentioned further up in the thread, I'm kind of a systems/stat person myself and have been following the thread very closely. You can probably tell I'm interested in this thread as I've been a member of the forum for ages and these are my first posts
Good luck with it anyway

It could well be a flaw with the system and something to look at filtering out as I get to a final system. Thanks for your input - I take all comments as constructive. I'm no expert in horse racing and this system is far from a finished article.

[aliando]

just to be the devil on the other shoulder...

if you've got a weak looking race/fancied newbie/trainer with good stats for 1st time winners, it can lead to bloind faith dragging the price down.

might not always lose but if you are looking at this type of bet from a long term value perspective, it may not pay to simply discard it - may be worth keeping records if only to confirm you're doing it right

[aldric]

Originally Posted by daftpegasus

Today's Selections:

Looks like a good day to me once again. Well done

[daftpegasus]

Originally Posted by aldric

Looks like a good day to me once again. Well done

Thanks - I didn't take my laptop home last night so didn't have the spreadsheet which all my figures in to update the thread. Will do it now.

[daftpegasus]

Originally Posted by daftpegasus

Today's Selections:

5/6 for a profit on the day

Results of Lays Under 6.0
Number of Lays: 44
Winning Lays: 39
Strike rate: 89%
Starting Bank 1000pts
New Bank: 1221.8pts after commission
Profit/Loss: +221.8pts

Results of lays 6.0+
Number of Lays: 12
Winning Lays: 6
Strike rate:50%
Starting Bank 1000pts
New Bank: 733pts after commission
Profit/Loss: -277pts

Combined Results
Number of Lays: 56
Winning Lays: 45
Strike rate: 80%
Starting Bank 1000pts
New Bank: 944.8pts after commission
Profit/Loss: -55.2pts

Well one week on and some promising results are appearing although it's still to early to know anything for certain. The simple filter to eliminate bets over 6.0 seems to limit the losses (although I still feel that over time this will change). I will continue to paper trial and record all selections whatever the price but I may just start to lay the under 6.0 selections cue for the whole system to crash down around my ears.

[daftpegasus]

Today's Selections

06/06/2007	13:40	Nottingham	Strathmore	3.4
06/06/2007	14:50	Lingfield	Glencalvie	5.7
06/06/2007	15:00	Sedgefield	Mighty Fine	3.35
06/06/2007	15:30	Sedgefield	Blackergreen	4.9
06/06/2007	15:40	Nottingham	Megaton	3.1
06/06/2007	16:10	Nottingham	Hinterland	3
06/06/2007	18:10	Kempton	Dome Rock