Simple Laying System Trial

[daftpegasus]

Originally Posted by BillyHills

Nice start mate, are you just laying Handicaps?

Also 10 in the morning may be a bit early to lay horses for evening racing, but i suppose if it was real money you would lay them later.

The system doesn't differentiate between the different types of racing - at this stage it is very simple, either the right conditions are met and it's a selection, or it's not. I'm hoping that by recording everything that I'll find the filters that help make it work.

I know what you mean about doing it at 10 in the morning and by doing this process nearer the start of each race would mean that some of the selections were no longer selections (does that make sense?). At the time I check I'm only looking to lay the favourite in a race if it meets certain conditions - a number of the runners close to the off are no longer the favourite and therefore would not be selections within the system.

My problem is that I work and whilst I'm lucky in that I can get onto sites like this during the working day, I can't commit to doing this work at 10am and then rechecking 30 minutes or so before the off.

On a day when there's fewer selections I might see if I can recheck each horse prior to the off to see if it's still a selection (i.e. still the favourite in the betting).

[daftpegasus]

Sorry -- just spotted a few incorrect figures in post 16 which I've now corrected.

[daftpegasus]

Todays Selections are:

01/06/2007	14:10	Epsom Downs	Ordnance Row	5.9
01/06/2007	14:25	Catterick	Fractured Foxy	2.7
01/06/2007	14:35	Wolverhampton	Cosmic Destiny	4.4
01/06/2007	15:00	Catterick	Gigs Magic	6
01/06/2007	15:35	Catterick	Mulligan's Gold	5.2
01/06/2007	16:15	Catterick	Froissee	3.25
01/06/2007	17:45	Catterick	Butterfly Bud	4.7

[daftpegasus]

Originally Posted by daftpegasus

Todays Selections are:

Another good day yesterday for the lay's under 6.

Results of Lays Under 6.0
Number of Lays: 18
Winning Lays: 18
Strike rate: 100%
Starting Bank 1000pts
New Bank: 1171pts after commission
Profit/Loss: +171pts

Results of lays 6.0+
Number of Lays: 5
Winning Lays: 1
Strike rate:20%
Starting Bank 1000pts
New Bank: 789.5pts after commission
Profit/Loss: -210.5pts

Combined Results
Number of Lays: 23
Winning Lays: 19
Strike rate: 83%
Starting Bank 1000pts
New Bank: 961.5pts after commission
Profit/Loss: -39.5pts

[daftpegasus]

A lot of racing today means a lot of selections

02/06/2007	14:00	Epsom Downs	Regal Flush	5.1
02/06/2007	14:20	Musselburgh	How's She Cuttin'	4
02/06/2007	14:30	Epsom Downs	Mister Hardy	4.7
02/06/2007	14:35	Folkstone	Trimlestown	4.6
02/06/2007	14:55	Worcester	Dune Raider	6.4
02/06/2007	15:30	Epsom Downs	Green Manalishi	7.4
02/06/2007	15:45	Hexham	It's A Roofer	6.8
02/06/2007	15:55	Musselburgh	La Guancha	4.1
02/06/2007	17:15	Musselburgh	High Reach	1.78
02/06/2007	17:40	Epsom Downs	Prince Namid	5.7
02/06/2007	17:50	Musselburgh	Boxhall	4.6
02/06/2007	20:10	Wolverhampton	Dramatic	3.5
02/06/2007	20:30	Newcastle	Feelin Foxy	4.4
02/06/2007	21:00	Newcastle	Viva Volta	6.6

[daftpegasus]

Originally Posted by daftpegasus

A lot of racing today means a lot of selections

8/8 under 6.0 with 2 results to come today - I'm starting to get excited by this system.

It's just those over 6.0 that are causing the problems.

[Remmer7]

Looking very good m8, cant complain with 100% strike rate for them under 6's. I'll continue watching with interest keep it up

[aelara]

As a stats and systems freak,I have been following this thread with great interest.
Why dont you just omit any selections over 6.00- use that as a system rule. Kind of makes sense at this stage of the game.

[mileni4uk]

Originally Posted by aelara

As a stats and systems freak,I have been following this thread with great interest.
Why dont you just omit any selections over 6.00- use that as a system rule. Kind of makes sense at this stage of the game.

It's better to see how everything goes in the future imo.
It's still early days.

[daftpegasus]

Originally Posted by aelara

As a stats and systems freak,I have been following this thread with great interest.
Why dont you just omit any selections over 6.00- use that as a system rule. Kind of makes sense at this stage of the game.

It's very, very early in the trial and it's still only a paper trial.

Almost certainly when I start to put money on my selections I will exclude all over 6.0, but I will still record the results. In the long term these figures will change. Taking into account all bets todate and it's basically broken even (which is a change on most of my betting). So I need to find the right filter to make a long term profit - if I exclude everything above 6.0 after 4 days it means I might miss some cruical information to help determine that filter.

[aelara]

Thats fair enough. In all the exitement I kind of forgot you're only paper trading

[wicked]

Well done Daftpegasus. It is very encouraging (and rare!) to find someone detailing lays that are proving successful. I've used your selections as a sort of start point today for my own selections rather than go through the whole card. Very useful, and more to the point, nicely in profit. Thanks for posting.

[daftpegasus]

Originally Posted by daftpegasus

A lot of racing today means a lot of selections

Unbelievable the number of these selections over 6.0 that are winning!!

Under 6.0 the 100% record goes today but I'm very happy with 9/10. A profit of over 60pts on the day.

Results of Lays Under 6.0
Number of Lays: 28
Winning Lays: 27
Strike rate: 96%
Starting Bank 1000pts
New Bank: 1231.5pts after commission
Profit/Loss: +231.5pts

Results of lays 6.0+
Number of Lays: 9
Winning Lays: 3
Strike rate:33%
Starting Bank 1000pts
New Bank: 694.5pts after commission
Profit/Loss: -305.5pts

Combined Results
Number of Lays: 37
Winning Lays: 30
Strike rate: 81%
Starting Bank 1000pts
New Bank: 926pts after commission
Profit/Loss: -74pts

[sparxxx]

I kinda had a similar system where i lay all odds on favourites to lose when there were more than roughly 6 runners in the race, unfortunately i dont have enough time on my hands to do this everyday and keep track of all bets ive placed. the week just gone i was getting roughly even money on the bets i layed that met the criteria and 6 out of 8 won, which to win 10£ a time would have seen you just short of 40£ up after commision.

[daftpegasus]

Originally Posted by sparxxx

I kinda had a similar system where i lay all odds on favourites to lose when there were more than roughly 6 runners in the race, unfortunately i dont have enough time on my hands to do this everyday and keep track of all bets ive placed. the week just gone i was getting roughly even money on the bets i layed that met the criteria and 6 out of 8 won, which to win 10£ a time would have seen you just short of 40£ up after commision.

I used to do something similar to that but I found the months between June and October to be very barren - a lot of odds on favourites won. Between October and May it worked very well particularly with a staking plan.

[daftpegasus]

Today's selections:

03/06/2007	14:10	Hereford	Country Affair	3.25
03/06/2007	14:40	Hereford	Pro Dancer	4.3
03/06/2007	15:20	Brighton	Napoletano	3.6
03/06/2007	15:40	Hereford	Dishdasha	5.5
03/06/2007	16:20	Brighton	Hansomelle	8.6
03/06/2007	17:00	Southwell	Rathcor	4.3

I'm going to have a small e/w on Hansomelle today - if the current 6.0+ trends continue it will be a nice little return, if not, then at least the system wins!

[aelara]

Good luck today. Interesting with the sneaky EW selection

[RussP]

Good results so far
Any chance of listing the criteria, mate? It would be appreciated as you are beginning to get quite a few followers on this thread. Cheers