Simple Laying System Trial

[daftpegasus]

Over the past few weeks I've had a bit more time to 'study' the racing guides, papers and websites. Anyway I've noticed something that seems to work. However I'm consious that I've only ever noticed it and never recorded the results, so, chances are I'm only seeing what I want to see. Hence if I put it down in this thread then I've actively checked it prior to the races and have a record of the results. NO cash is being used at the current time.

Anyway the system is quite simple and I've no problem detailing it here, but let's see if it works first

Today's lays are:

Date	Time	Course	Horse	Lay Price
30/05/2007	15:10	Brighton	Liberty Run	4.5
30/05/2007	15:45	Brighton	Piano Man	5.6
30/05/2007	16:05	Cartmel	Honest Yor Honour	4.5
30/05/2007	16:20	Brighton	Adage	4.4
30/05/2007	17:05	Yarmouth	Bronze Star	5.6
30/05/2007	19:05	Southwell	Fractured Foxy	2.26

The lay price was the current price on BF at the time of checking - usually I'd put up a price a little less and hope to get it matched between now and then.

[staffy]

Good luck mate.

[wicked]

I like the look of this in that you're using prices suitable for laying. It'll be interesting to see how it goes. Best of luck.

[daftpegasus]

Originally Posted by daftpegasus

Without wishing to jinx the last selection it's 5 out of 5 so far and the first ever one of my systems to end day one in a profit (strangely enough it's also the first ever one of my systems that I haven't backed with real money)

for a clean sweep today

[aliando]

good luck mate - will look to the ones that match up within my selection process

[Dices]

Now this was a REALLY GOOD start.
Will follow closely. How many selections are you expecting daily?
Good luck mate.

[Ebor337]

Yeah was rooting for you in the last as laid Fractured Foxy myself.

Well done mate,

Great start.

[daftpegasus]

Thanks for your support guys. Couldn't have asked for a better start.

I'm not sure how many selections there will be each day - I guess that they'd be between 2 and 8, but as I said in the first post this is the first time I'm recording all the selections as opposed to me thinking that it could work.

Number of Lays: 6
Winning Lays: 6
Strike rate: 100%
Starting Bank 1000pts
New Bank: 1057pts after commission
Profit/Loss: +57pts

[daftpegasus]

Today's selections that fit the criteria:

Date	Time	Course	Horse	Lay Price
31/05/2007	14:30	Lingfield	Marmito	2.42
31/05/2007	15:50	Ayr	Stolen Glance	6.8
31/05/2007	16:00	Lingfield	Mutual Friend	6.2
31/05/2007	16:10	Yarmouth	Moon Forest	5.3
31/05/2007	16:30	Lingfield	Metropolitan Chief	5
31/05/2007	16:50	Ayr	Darfour	3.6
31/05/2007	17:10	Yarmouth	Cushat Law	6.4
31/05/2007	18:10	Sandown	Desert Dreamer	4.9
31/05/2007	20:10	Sedgefield	Karo De Vindecy	7
31/05/2007	20:50	Sandown	Tempelstern	4.2

All these qualify but I'm a bit uncomfortable laying horses at greater than 6.0 so I shall keep a record of these seperately. You never know they may fit the system and make it more profitable

[domino]

A great start to the thread, well done!
Any clues as to how you arrive at the selections? I'm intrigued!

[Ebor337]

Originally Posted by daftpegasus

All these qualify but I'm a bit uncomfortable laying horses at greater than 6.0 so I shall keep a record of these seperately. You never know they may fit the system and make it more profitable

I find price "cut-offs" one of the hardest things to get my head around! Too high and you take more hits, too low and you lose many of the winners needed to boost your bank!

Best of luck anyway mate!

[Semikings]

excellent start daft pegasus

my price cut off is 5.0. I find this easier to recover from.

have followed you under 5 picks

[THE RAVEN]

Hi

Well done from yesterday and also your first horse Marmito was beaten in a photo finish. Carry on the good work.

Good luck for the rest of the day

Raven

[daftpegasus]

and now the losing run kicks in

[Semikings]

have faith daft

moon forest lost

[daftpegasus]

Originally Posted by daftpegasus

Today's selections that fit the criteria:



All these qualify but I'm a bit uncomfortable laying horses at greater than 6.0 so I shall keep a record of these seperately. You never know they may fit the system and make it more profitable

OK Moral dilema time. I did initially say that I would record those above 6.0 seperately but this now feels like after eventing to say that for lays under 6.0 the results are great 12/12

However including those above 6.0 the results change somewhat to show an overall loss. Because I said I'd keep the result seperate I will record here but I feel very uncomfortable doing so (any feedback on whether this is morally right or wrong would be appreciated).

Results of Lays Under 6.0
Number of Lays: 12
Winning Lays: 12
Strike rate: 100%
Starting Bank 1000pts
New Bank: 1114pts after commission
Profit/Loss: +114pts

Results of lays 6.0+
Number of Lays: 4
Winning Lays: 1
Strike rate:25%
Starting Bank 1000pts
New Bank: 839.5pts after commission
Profit/Loss: -160.5pts

Hopefully these will even out in the longer term

Combined Results
Number of Lays: 16
Winning Lays: 13
Strike rate: 81%
Starting Bank 1000pts
New Bank: 953.5pts after commission
Profit/Loss: -46.5pts

[aliando]

this is what i started doing with my initial thread mate - i split the bets into those i was betting on and those i was keeping an eye on (discarded horses).

worth keeping track of mate, as they may throw up a chance to bet ON them for profit.

long way to go, but good early signs there!

[Dices]

Two seperate banks are perfect.
Good luck with this again.

[Semikings]

daftpegasus

"OK Moral dilema time. I did initially say that I would record those above 6.0 seperately but this now feels like after eventing to say that for lays under 6.0 the results are great 12/12"


Don't worry, no dilema. it's only a paper trial. You said at the beginning "No Cash is being used at the present time". You're allowed to tinker with your system as long as you state clearly what you are doing. And as aliando said he split his bets because the trend told him to(that's what he meant anyway).

[BillyHills]

Nice start mate, are you just laying Handicaps?

Also 10 in the morning may be a bit early to lay horses for evening racing, but i suppose if it was real money you would lay them later.