Rating Lays

[rooster]

Results for Friday 16 May 2008

220 NEWBURY 11/10*Fat Boy (LAY) W 8/11F
250 NEWBURY 2/1*Kotsi, (LAY) 2ND 9/4
300 NEWMARKET 9/4*Wingbeat (LAY) W 1/1F
335 NEWMARKET 15/8*Transcend (LAY) 3RD 13/8F
610 NEWCASTLE 11/4*Gone Hunting, (LAY) L 7/2
620 HAMILTON 5/4*Spin Cycle (LAY) W 6/5F
725 HAMILTON 2/1*Love Galore (LAY) 2ND 6/1
750 NEWCASTLE 9/4*Mr Crystal (LAY) L 3/1
835 HAMILTON 2/1*Turbo Linn (LAY) 2ND 9/4JF

Rooster Recommends

250 NEWBURY 2/1*Kotsi, (LAY) 2ND 9/4
335 NEWMARKET 15/8*Transcend (LAY) 3RD 13/8F
610 NEWCASTLE 11/4*Gone Hunting, (LAY) L 7/2

[rooster]

Results for Saturday 17 May 2008

250 BANGOR 2/1*Ouzbeck (LAY) W 2/1
300 NEWMARKET 2/1*Enroller (LAY) W 13/8F
445 NEWMARKET Evs*Missile Dodge (LAY) L 4/5F
850 DONCASTER 2/1*Storyland (LAY) W 15/8F

Rooster Recommends

300 NEWMARKET 2/1 Enroller (LAY) W 13/8F
445 NEWMARKET Evs Missile Dodge (LAY) L 4/5F

[rooster]

Results for Sunday 18 May 2008

320 FAKENHAM 3/1 Cool Roxy (LAY) 2ND 11/4F
340 RIPON 7/4 Angus Newz (LAY) L 5/4F
420 FAKENHAM 11/8 Roby De Cimbre (LAY) W 5/2

Rooster Recommends

320 FAKENHAM 3/1 Cool Roxy (LAY) 2ND 11/4F
420 FAKENHAM 11/8 Roby De Cimbre (LAY) W 5/2

[rooster]

Monday 19 May 2008

200 BATH 7/4*Lucky Leigh (LAY)
250 NEWTON ABBOT 4/5*Redemption, (LAY)
310 MUSSELBURGH 7/4*Fire Up The Band, (LAY)
320 NEWTON ABBOT 15/8*Manhattan Boy (LAY)
340 MUSSELBURGH 3/1*Kames Park, (LAY)
350 NEWTON ABBOT 3/1*Critical Stage (LAY)
510 MUSSELBURGH 6/4*Spanish Conquest (LAY)
640 WINDSOR 13/8*Fault, (LAY)
740 WINDSOR 11/4*First Avenue (LAY)
920 WOLVERHAMPTON 9/4*Sir Duke (LAY)

Rooster Recommends

200 BATH 7/4*Lucky Leigh (LAY)

[rooster]

Results for Monday 19 my 2008

200 BATH 7/4*Lucky Leigh (LAY) NR
250 NEWTON ABBOT 4/5*Redemption, (LAY) W 6/4F
310 MUSSELBURGH 7/4*Fire Up The Band, (LAY) NR
320 NEWTON ABBOT 15/8*Manhattan Boy (LAY) 2ND 11/4
340 MUSSELBURGH 3/1*Kames Park, (LAY) L 7/2
350 NEWTON ABBOT 3/1*Critical Stage (LAY) 2ND 7/2JF
510 MUSSELBURGH 6/4*Spanish Conquest (LAY) L 7/2
640 WINDSOR 13/8*Fault, (LAY) L 4/1
740 WINDSOR 11/4*First Avenue (LAY) L 11.4F
920 WOLVERHAMPTON 9/4*Sir Duke (LAY) W 9/4

Rooster Recommends

200 BATH 7/4*Lucky Leigh (LAY) NR

[rooster]

Tuesday 20 May 2008

210 MUSSELBURGH 2/1*Mullglen (LAY)
300 SOUTHWELL 13/8*Dado Mush (LAY)
340 MUSSELBURGH 7/4*Kasumi, (LAY)
350 BEVERLEY 11/8*Yes One (LAY)
430 SOUTHWELL 2/1*Luscivious, (LAY)
620 LEICESTER 2/1*Light The Fire, (LAY)
750 LEICESTER 2/1*Candy Mountain, (LAY)

Rooster Recommends

210 MUSSELBURGH 2/1 Mullglen (LAY)
340 MUSSELBURGH 7/4 Kasumi, (LAY)
350 BEVERLEY 11/8 Yes One (LAY)

[rooster]

Results for Tuesday 20 May 2008

210 MUSSELBURGH 2/1*Mullglen (LAY) W 11/10F
300 SOUTHWELL 13/8*Dado Mush (LAY) 2ND 2/1F
340 MUSSELBURGH 7/4*Kasumi, (LAY) W 1/2F
350 BEVERLEY 11/8*Yes One (LAY) L 7/4F
430 SOUTHWELL 2/1*Luscivious, (LAY) L 5/2F
620 LEICESTER 2/1*Light The Fire, (LAY) W 8/13F
750 LEICESTER 2/1*Candy Mountain, (LAY) 2ND 7/4F

Rooster Recommends

210 MUSSELBURGH 2/1 Mullglen (LAY) W 11/10F
340 MUSSELBURGH 7/4 Kasumi, (LAY) W 1/2F
350 BEVERLEY 11/8 Yes One (LAY) L 7/4F

[rooster]

Wednesday 21 May 2008

200 AYR 5/4*Benato The Great (LAY)
310 AYR 11/8*Hula Ballew, (LAY)
345 AYR 7/2*Deserted Dane, (LAY)
445 KELSO 9/4*Mirage Dore (LAY)
510 GOODWOOD 7/4*Jennie Jerome (LAY)
530 AYR 7/2*Blue Jet, (LAY)
600 SANDOWN 5/2*Crystal Moments (LAY)

Rooster Recommends

310 AYR 11/8*Hula Ballew, (LAY)

[rooster]

At the start of the thread I said I'd post these for a month. Overall it's gone well and I will post an analysis later this week. I'm still of the mind that the most profitable approach is to lay the Rooster Recommends selections but the followers - both of you of the thread might be able to shed some light on other angles. I have yet to analyze it in terms of SP.

Rooster

[Red Dragon]

I'm following it too! LOL. Only found the thread at the weekend but it looks interesting. Not had the chance to analyze it. Too busy filling in application forms for a real job

[Tulenos]

Also follow the thread with interest and the recommended stuff looks to be doing quite well. Keep it on

[asificare]

well rooster i lay most of your ratings and if we get a looser i ussually increase the stake to make amends on the next lay . and todate there have been very few non- profitable days ,still trying to find the best staking plan keep the ratings comming m8 they are a great help.
wish i kept records will from to day and will show results .

[Red Dragon]

I know it is an abvious one but My one thought is how your results are affected by the withdrawal of one or more horses from a race. Any advice at this stage?

[rooster]

Originally Posted by asificare

well rooster i lay most of your ratings and if we get a looser i ussually increase the stake to make amends on the next lay . and todate there have been very few non- profitable days ,still trying to find the best staking plan keep the ratings comming m8 they are a great help.
wish i kept records will from to day and will show results .

Glad to hear they're paying you mate. You're more than welcome to an excel file with all selections to date if it's any use to you. You can Private Message me your e-mail address and I'll send it on.

Rooster

[rooster]

Originally Posted by Red Dragon

I know it is an abvious one but My one thought is how your results are affected by the withdrawal of one or more horses from a race. Any advice at this stage?

Hi Red Dragon. This is something I need to analyze but haven't got round to just yet. It's a valid point as the fields are max 8 runners and many only have 4 or 5 runners so a non-runner or two will have a big impact on profits. I'll post up the data when I have it done mate.

Rooster

[rooster]

Originally Posted by Tulenos

Also follow the thread with interest and the recommended stuff looks to be doing quite well. Keep it on

Thanks Tulenos will keep them coming

[rooster]

Results for Wednesday 21 May 2008

Not such a good day overall.

200 AYR 5/4*Benato The Great (LAY) ABANDONED
310 AYR 11/8*Hula Ballew, (LAY) ABANDONED
345 AYR 7/2*Deserted Dane, (LAY) ABANDONED
445 KELSO 9/4*Mirage Dore (LAY) W 9/4JF
510 GOODWOOD 7/4*Jennie Jerome (LAY) L 5/4F
530 AYR 7/2*Blue Jet, (LAY) ABANDONED
600 SANDOWN 5/2*Crystal Moments (LAY) W 9/2

Rooster Recommends

310 AYR 11/8*Hula Ballew, (LAY) ABANDONED

[rooster]

Thursday 22 May 2008

235 WETHERBY 11/10*Wotchalike (LAY)
325 GOODWOOD 13/8*Safari Mischief, (LAY)
400 GOODWOOD 9/4*Trianon, (LAY)
410 HAYDOCK 9/4*Major Magpie (LAY)
545 GOODWOOD 2/1*Matterofact, (LAY)
820 WORCESTER 2/1*Pearl King, (LAY)

Rooster Recommends

235 WETHERBY 11/10*Wotchalike (LAY)
325 GOODWOOD 13/8*Safari Mischief, (LAY)
400 GOODWOOD 9/4*Trianon, (LAY)
545 GOODWOOD 2/1*Matterofact, (LAY)
820 WORCESTER 2/1*Pearl King, (LAY)

[rooster]

I had half an hour to start analyzing the selections - long way to go but here are the preliminary findings.

ALL 161
SUCCESSFUL 110
SR 68.32%
P/L 0.77
ROI 0.48%

So 163 suggested lays yielding a profit of a massive 0.77 points. OK we're not going to retire on that. Looking at the 'Rooster Recommends' selections (R.R from here on) is much more appealing.

R.R 67
SUCCESSFUL 49
SR 73.13%
P/L 20.72
ROI 30.93%

Much better success rate, profit and ROI. This we could retire on. The average winning price of unsuccessful lays has been 2.48 (just under 6/4). I have to note here that the 67 R.R selections are taken from when I first started the thread not from when I first separating them from the general selections last week. I hope that makes sense. As well as that, I have not included the very first R.R lay which won at 5/1 as this was a mistake on my part. I'm not trying to back track to make my figures look better. It was an honest mistake and I've nothing to gain from excluding it - it's not like I'm trying to sell a system or anything.

Looking at selections that went off favourite in the race was also profitable as follows.

R.R 98
SUCCESSFUL 63
SR 64.29%
P/L 11.65
ROI 11.89%

I still have to look at them in terms of non-runners which is important and also in terms of starting price. I'll try to do that this week. I'll post up all the R.R selections below as I think this may be where the profit lies.

Hope this is of use.

Rooster

[rooster]

Here are the selections that qualified as R.R lays.

A very important thing to add is that the figures given above are based on paying 5% commission to Betfair and laying at 10% above SP.

FULL LIST OF R.R LAYS

325 FOLK 5/2*Hereford Boy W 15/8F -2.10
335 KEMP 6/4*Grande Caiman L 6/4F 0.95
350 SOUTH 11/4*Kensington, L 9/4JF 0.95
400 FOLK 7/4*Lupita, L 9/4F 0.95
505 FOLK 11/4*Calistos Quest, L 9/4F 0.95
320 PERTH 6/4*Fleet Street, 2ND 11/4F 0.95
330 NOTTINGHAM 4/7*Curtain Call W 8/11F -0.80
430 PERTH 1/2*Natiain W 4/6F -0.73
550 GREATLEIGHS 4/1*Merlin´s Dancer L 7/1 0.95
535 SOUTHWELL 10/11*Midnight Fling L 15/8F 0.95
705 SOUTHWELL 9/4*Exit Smiling L 11/8F 0.95
720 GREAT LEIGHS 2/1*Proper, 2ND 5/4F 0.95
405 WOLVERHAMPTON 5/2*Playtotheaudience, 3RD 3/1JF 0.95
140 SANDOWN 13/8*Pigeon Island L 9/4F 0.95
215 LEICESTER Evs*Rayvin Mad 2ND 13/8 0.95
315 LEICESTER 4/1*City Stable L 11/2 0.95
750 HAYDOCK Evs*Conquisto W 6/4F -1.65
835 WOLVERHAMPTON 1/8*Queen Of Naples W 2/13F -0.17
210 BRIGHTON 4/6*Brenin Taran 2ND 6/5F 0.95
430 YARMOUTH 6/4*Greyfriars Abbey L 9/4 0.95
610 WINDSOR 2/1*Dubai Petal, W 5/4F -1.38
655 SOTHWELL 2/1*Steel City Boy L 2/1F 0.95
725 SOUTHWELL 9/4*Fantastic Lass L 9/4 0.95
430 SOUTHWELL 2/1*Mid Valley 2ND 9/4 0.95
620 GREAT LEIGHS 11/4*Mia´s Boy 3RD 4/1 0.95
430 REDCAR 13/8*Tajweed W 6/5F -1.32
310 LINGFIELD 11/4*Lille Ida L 13/2 0.95
350 MUSSELBURGH 11/8*Borderlescott W 5/4F -1.38
410 LINGFIELD 6/5*Mr Aviator 2ND 11/10F 0.95
440 LINGFIELD 5/2*Racer Forever 2ND 7/2 0.95
710 FONTWELL 8/13*Prime Contender 2ND 5/6F 0.95
245 NEWMARKET 13/8*Passage Of Time L 7/4 0.95
550 GOODWOOD 11/8*Riverscape, 2ND 9/2 0.95
615 DONCASTER 4/5*Majuba 2ND 8/13F 0.95
730 HEXHAM 2/1*Network Oscar L 3/1 0.95
750 DONCASTER 8/13*Iguazu Falls, L 4/6F 0.95
830 HEXHAM 5/4*Sleeping Night 2ND 2/1 0.95
335 WINDSOR 5/2*Trans Siberian W 7/4F -1.93
605 CATTERICK 2/1*Red Cell W 6/4F -1.65
215 CHESTER 13/8*Maraahel, 2ND 5/2 0.95
230 GOODWOOD Icesolator, W 5/2 -2.75
530 NEWTON ABBOT 13/8*Sesame Rambler, L 13/8F 0.95
610 GREAT LEIGHS 5/2*Loose Caboose, L 9/4F 0.95
640 GREAT LEIGHS 3/1*Basra 3RD 9/2 0.95
300 HAYDOCK 8/11*Advanced, L 2/1F 0.95
430 HAYDOCK 5/2*Welsh Emperor L 9/2 0.95
515 HEXHAM 13/8*Prince Car L 11/8 0.95
530 YARMOUTH 11/8*Multicultural, 2ND 11/10F 0.95
330 YARMOUTH 9/4*Black Moma, 2ND 11/4F 0.95
500 YARMOUTH 9/4*Fourth Dimension, L 13/8F 0.95
240 YORK 9/4*Lush Lashes W 2/1F -2.20
320 EXETER 10/11*Kiama W 5/6F -0.92
640 PERTH 11/10*Artless, UR 8/11F 0.95
200 PERTH 11/8*Cardinal Spirit, 2ND 1/1F 0.95
230 PERTH 7/4*Always Right, W 11/8F -1.51
310 YORK 4/6*Lang Shining 2ND 8/11F 0.95
345 YORK 2/1*Benandonner 2ND 7/4F 0.95
725 NEWMARKET 15/8*Kaateb, 2ND 15/8F 0.95
250 NEWBURY 2/1*Kotsi, 2ND 9/4 0.95
335 NEWMARKET 15/8*Transcend 3RD 13/8F 0.95
610 NEWCASTLE 11/4*Gone Hunting, L 7/2 0.95
300 NEWMARKET 2/1*Enroller W 13/8F -1.79
445 NEWMARKET Evs*Missile Dodge L 4/5F 0.95
320 FAKENHAM 3/1 Cool Roxy 2ND 11/4F 0.95
420 FAKENHAM 11/8 Roby De Cimbre W 5/2 -2.75
210 MUSSELBURGH 2/1*Mullglen W 11/10F -1.21
340 MUSSELBURGH 7/4*Kasumi, W 1/2F -0.55
350 BEVERLEY 11/8*Yes One L 7/4F 0.95