racing post naps

[trigsbroom]

Hi, I saw this for the first time this morning and kept an eye on it, only Strathmore and Treasurlier won their races, and their lay odds closer to the start were 4.2 and 3.0 respectively, so laying all of them would have seen you 2.8 points up. It makes sense to me that, rather than not laying any selection picked by the top 5 tipsters, don't lay anything that is tipped by any tipster who is in profit, ie the top 13 today. That would have knocked off Ingratitude and produced a 1.8 point profit, Delena, however went off at 12.5+ so you may have preferred to avoid that one, it still lost though! ...early days but worth watching!
Another way of using the Naps table that occurred to me, would be to lay any selections by a single poor performing tipster, for instance, I noticed a few years ago that Alan Keyte's strike rate is consistently high but as far as I know,he's rarely, if ever in profit. Today, his strike rate shows as 50%, but he's 9 points down, the reason being that he generally picks very short priced favourites, which apparently only win 50% of the time, so on level stakes there's probably money to be made there, and as my guess is that his selections are usually odds on, they would tolerate a staking plan well.

[davyboy]

Hi, thanx for that trigsbroom, you may well be right as i said in the beginning its all open for debate & filters, together we can all work on this one, who knows what the final outcome may be?, what i dont want to happen is that we have so many filters & end up with only one lay a week!.

rossd has took on the paperwork as this is not my field, perhaps he would do a separate sheet for your idea??, what do you think ross?, we could end up with 10 versions of this all with different criteria!!, can you cope??

[Rossd1]

See no reason once I have all the information laid out onto spreadsheets, that there would be any problems. However not exactly sure how I am going to lay this out etc as yet. As mentioned I will be home w/c 14th and will pull everything together then with all variables possible.

[Rossd1]

All selections by bottom 10 not selected by top 5 at any odds and runners. All selections lay 1 pt.

12.50 Sout Strathmore 5.80 1st } -4.80
1.30 Ludl Pauntley Gofa 17.00 UP } +0.95
1.30 Ludl Amir El Jabal 5.40 UP } +0.95
2.00 Ludl Ingratitude 3.75 3rd } +0.95
2.10 Taun Soulard 8.20 (NR)
2.40 Taun Fiddling Again 3.20 3rd } +0.95
2.50 Sout Elusive Warrior 3.15 3rd } +0.95
3.10 Taun Treasulier 4.90 1st } -3.90
3.20 Sout Cragganmore Creek 3.85 3rd } +0.95
3.40 Taun Delena 17.00 UP } +0.95

Todays Loss 2.05 pts

All selections by bottom 10 not selected by top 5 with min 8 runners and no greater than 5.0 odds. All selections lay 1 pt.

2.00 Ludl Ingratitude 3.75 3rd } +0.95
2.40 Taun Fiddling Again 3.20 3rd } +0.95
3.20 Sout Cragganmore Creek 3.85 3rd } +0.95

Todays profit 2.85 pts

All the best
Ross

[Rossd1]

All selections by bottom 10 not selected by top 5 at any odds and runners. All selections lay 1 pt.

12.10 Sout Summersixtynine 15.50
12.40 Sout Shadow Jumper 23.00
1.10 Sout Wodhill Gold 3.35
1.40 Sout Copperbottomed 3.65
2.20 Leic Butlers Cabin 15.50
2.50 Leic Planet of Sound 3.45
3.10 Sout Godfrey Street 14.00
3.10 Sout Tartartufata 3.80
3.20 Leic High Tech Made 9.30

All selections by bottom 10 not selected by top 5 with min 8 runners and no greater than 5.0 odds. All selections lay 1 pt.

1.10 Sout Wodhill Gold 3.35
2.50 Leic Planet of Sound 3.45
3.10 Sout Tartartufata 3.80

[Rossd1]

Results 08th Jan 08 - All selections by bottom 10 not selected by top 5 at any odds and runners. All selections lay 1 pt.

12.10 Sout Summersixtynine 15.50 UP } +0.95
12.40 Sout Shadow Jumper 23.00 UP } +0.95
1.10 Sout Wodhill Gold 3.35 1st } -2.35
1.40 Sout Copperbottomed 3.65 2nd } +0.95
2.20 Leic Butlers Cabin 15.50 UP } +0.95
2.50 Leic Planet of Sound 3.45 UP } +0.95
3.10 Sout Godfrey Street 14.00 UP } +0.95
3.10 Sout Tartartufata 3.80 1st } -2.80
3.20 Leic High Tech Made 9.30 UP } +0.95

Profit for the day +1.50 pts

All selections by bottom 10 not selected by top 5 with min 8 runners and no greater than 5.0 odds. All selections lay 1 pt.

1.10 Sout Wodhill Gold 3.35 1st } -2.35
2.50 Leic Planet of Sound 3.45 UP } +0.95
3.10 Sout Tartartufata 3.80 1st } -2.80

Loss for the day -4.20 pts

[Rossd1]

Having to go out of the office and not going to have the time to check todays selections. if someone can, please do and if not will hopefully get back to it tomorrow if I am back or it may be Monday now before I am back in the UK.

Apologies to everyone
Ross

[gonxalo2000]

All selections by bottom 10 not selected by top 5 at any odds and runners. All selections lay 1 pt.

12:50 Ling Atephobia 2.46 (run 3)
01:40 Muss King Daniel 16.50
02:20 Ling Cold Turkey 16.0
02:20 Ling Sgt Schultz 5.8
02:30 Kemp Rollin ´n Tumblin 3.25
02:50 Ling Risque Heights 5.0
03:40 Muss La Pantera Rosa 13.50
07:50 Wolv Moonlitesilhouette 9.8 (run 6)
09:20 Wolv Abounding 10 (run 7)

All selections by bottom 10 not selected by top 5 with min 8 runners and no greater than 5.0 odds. All selections lay 1 pt.

02:30 Kemp Rollin ´n Tumblin 3.25
02:50 Ling Risque Heights 5.0

can any one check it?

good luck!

[Rossd1]

Thanks GX2000,

I travelling today with work, tomorrow home, friday weekend with better half. if you cannot cover until I get back on Monday, would appreciate if anyone else can.

Will get everything updated w/c 14th.

All the best.
Ross

[gonxalo2000]

Results 09th Jan 08 - All selections by bottom 10 not selected by top 5 at any odds and runners. All selections lay 1 pt.

12:50 Ling Atephobia 2.46 +0.95
01:40 Muss King Daniel 16.50 (2nd) +0.95
02:20 Ling Cold Turkey 16.0 (3rd) +0.95
02:20 Ling Sgt Schultz 5.8 (2nd) +0.95
02:30 Kemp Rollin ´n Tumblin 3.25 -2.25
02:50 Ling Risque Heights 5.0 +0.95
03:40 Muss La Pantera Rosa 13.50 +0.95
07:50 Wolv Moonlitesilhouette 9.8 (run 6) +0.95
09:20 Wolv Abounding 10 (run 7) +0.95

Profit for the day +5.35 pts

All selections by bottom 10 not selected by top 5 with min 8 runners and no greater than 5.0 odds. All selections lay 1 pt.

02:30 Kemp Rollin ´n Tumblin 3.25 -2.25
02:50 Ling Risque Heights 5.0 +0.95

Loss for the day -1.30 pts

[gonxalo2000]

All selections by bottom 10 not selected by top 5 at any odds and runners. All selections lay 1 pt.

12:40 Sthl - Grimes Faith 4.7 (run 7)
13:40 Sthl - Her Name Is Rio (IRE) 3.7 (run 5)
13:50 Catt - Final Veto AB
14:10 Sthl - Cape of Storms NR
14:30 Hrfd - Battlecry 4.0 (run 6)
14:50 Catt - Starbougg AB
15:00 Hrfd - Heart Springs 14.0
16:00 Hrfd - Job One (FR) 7.8
20:50 Wolv - Marias Dream (IRE) 2.34 (run 4)


All selections by bottom 10 not selected by top 5 with min 8 runners and no greater than 5.0 odds. All selections lay 1 pt.

No Selections.

[gonxalo2000]

Results 10th Jan 08 - All selections by bottom 10 not selected by top 5 at any odds and runners. All selections lay 1 pt.

12:40 Sthl - Grimes Faith 4.7 (run 7) -3.7
13:40 Sthl - Her Name Is Rio (IRE) 3.7 (run 5) -2.7
13:50 Catt - Final Veto XX
14:10 Sthl - Cape of Storms NR
14:30 Hrfd - Battlecry 4.0 (run 6) +0.95
14:50 Catt - Starbougg XX
15:00 Hrfd - Heart Springs 14.0 (3rd) +0.95
16:00 Hrfd - Job One (FR) 7.8 +0.95
20:50 Wolv - Marias Dream (IRE) 2.34 (run 4) +0.95

Lose for the day -2.60 pts

[Rossd1]

Just to update - got home and my broadband is down and tech is due to have a look at it on Thu. Will hopefully be able to move this along from then.

Ross

[fragle123]

Hi all
Looks like this could be an interesting thread, i've been thinking along the same lines about the NAPS table i did find a thread on Betfair somebody is laying Alan Keytes Naps for a while now and he seems to be doing ok with it upto now. I have noticed that some of the naps put up by the poorest performers are big prices which put me off a bit as i'm new to all this and only have a small starting bank at the moment so 2 or 3 big priced lays would wipe me out and i am still at the learning stage, but it would be interesting to see how things go.
All the best