racing post naps

[davyboy]

Hi,
thought this was worth a mention... on the racing post site there is a naps table which im sure most of you are familiar with, on looking at it today i noticed that the bottom 10 are not in profit so turn this around & lay them botten 10 naps so long as none of the top 5 in table has same.

there were 7 today & they all came up as lays!!, sp`s as follows.. 9/4,7/2,9/1,2/1,7/4 & 11/4....9/1 is a bit rich for my blood but non the less a good start, unforunetly i do not have time to post daily selections because of work commitments but if you guys would like to monitor it that would be great.
also if anyone feels another filter or 2 is needed to improve then go ahead.
could anyone take up the challenge??.

[davyboy]

Originally Posted by davyboy

Hi,
thought this was worth a mention... on the racing post site there is a naps table which im sure most of you are familiar with, on looking at it today i noticed that the bottom 10 are not in profit so turn this around & lay them botten 10 naps so long as none of the top 5 in table has same.

there were 7 today & they all came up as lays!!, sp`s as follows.. 9/4,7/2,9/1,2/1,7/4 & 11/4....9/1 is a bit rich for my blood but non the less a good start, unforunetly i do not have time to post daily selections because of work commitments but if you guys would like to monitor it that would be great.
also if anyone feels another filter or 2 is needed to improve then go ahead.
could anyone take up the challenge??.

,....forgot to say there are 2 more races to come they are ..wolv 8.20 fresh mint & 9.20 obe royale..

[Rossd1]

Davy,

I will do my best to cover it as best I can. Working away and a bit of time on my hands so will look into it as from tomorrow.

All stakes will be 1pt lay at present with 100pt starting bank.

All the best
Ross

[welshman 2005]

think you got a decent system, will be watching with a keen interest.

[davyboy]

thanx guys, early days yet but it sounds good & makes logical sense i think!, i personally would like to have a 5.0 cutoff on bf but we will see how it unfolds, wont take long at this rate of selections to see if it works or not.
saturday will be a good test!

[Rossd1]

Apologies, however I am not going to be able to proof this system with actual lay prices. I can log into Betfair, but due to being in Nigeria I cannot view the lay prices. On top of that it will not let me place any bets. This country is a nightmare at times. I am also here more than at home in Scotland as I work 5 weeks here and 3 weeks home.

I will post the selections and would appreciate if someone could post the lay prices until I am home on 14th Jan for a few weeks.

Todays selections

12.15 Chep Arctic Magic
12.35 Ling Bridgewater Boys
1.45 Winc Starzaan
2.45 Ling Millville
3.20 Ling Jack Sullivan (selected by 2 bottom 10 napsters)
3.45 Sand Patricknineteenth (selected by 2 bottom 10 napsters)
7.50 Kemp Electric Warrior

Selected by bottom 10 napsters, also by top 5 and no selection
2.40 Sand Calgary Bay

1pt lay each

All the best
Ross

[davyboy]

8 out of 9 up yesterday,...9/4,7/2,9/1,2/1,2/1,9/2,7/4,11/4,all up & 1 down at 9/4. not bad for starters!, will it hold.

[davyboy]

thanx to rossd1 for your help, any other helpers outhere could help with the maths, ie strike rate, points profit ect?

[Rossd1]

I will easy do the maths, all I need is someone to post the lay odds from Betfair and I can do the rest.

[Rossd1]

I am able to see the lay price on betdaq, so prices and selections as follows for day 1

12.15 Chep Arctic Magic (missed the lay odds so will go with 2.50) unplaced
12.35 Ling Bridgewater Boys 2.60
1.45 Winc Starzaan 5.50
2.45 Ling Millville 4.00
3.20 Ling Jack Sullivan (selected by 2 bottom 10 napsters) 2.58
3.45 Sand Patricknineteenth (selected by 2 bottom 10 napsters) 9.70
7.50 Kemp Electric Warrior 1.62

[davyboy]

i already run a laying system other than rp naps & on that i only ever lay up tp 5.0 on bf & only ever in minimum of 8 runners inc nrs, so if there was a selection in an 8 horse field & there was one nr than no bet...cant help thinking i should have suggested that yesterday, too late now for today but as from tomorrow min 8 runners.

[minted]

Hi, I know that oddschecker com show last Betdaq price before in-play. I don't know whether it is any easier to get odds off that website for the system. Anyway Good luck!!

[Rossd1]

Ok, going to run both. All selections by bottom 10 not selected by top 5 at any odds and runners. Also min 8 runners and no greater than 5.0 odds.

Yesterdays results as follows.

12.15 Chep Arctic Magic (missed the lay odds so will go with 2.50) unplaced } WIN +0.95
12.35 Ling Bridgewater Boys 2.60 (1st) } Lost -1.60
1.45 Winc Starzaan 5.50 (1st) } Lost -4.50
2.45 Ling Millville 4.00 (1st) } Lost -3.00
3.20 Ling Jack Sullivan (selected by 2 bottom 10 napsters) 2.58 (2nd) } Win +0.95
3.45 Sand Patricknineteenth (selected by 2 bottom 10 napsters) 9.70 (N/R)
7.50 Kemp Electric Warrior 1.62 (1st) } Lost -0.62

Total Lost today -7.82pts

Not the greatest of starts but early days. I will update totals roughly on a weekly basis.

All the best
Ross

[Rossd1]

All selections by bottom 10 not selected by top 5 with min 8 runners and no greater than 5.0 odds.

The following would have been yesterdays results as follows.

12.15 Chep Arctic Magic (missed the lay odds so will go with 2.50) unplaced } WIN +0.95

Total profit today +0.95

The filters greatly reduced the selection process. Time will tell.

Ross

[Rossd1]

Ok, for today. All selections by bottom 10 not selected by top 5 at any odds and runners. All selections lay 1 pt.

12.40 Sthl Dickie Le Davoir 4.60
1.25 Plum Kruguyrova 2.24
1.55 Plum Pocket Aces 2.10
2.10 Sthl Legend Erry 2.51
2.25 Plum Migwell 8.40
2.40 Sthl My Mentor 10.50
2.40 Sthl Dado Mush 2.57
3.25 Plum The Hardy Boy 2.52

All selections by bottom 10 not selected by top 5 with min 8 runners and no greater than 5.0 odds. All selections lay 1 pt.

12.40 Sthl Dickie Le Davoir 4.60
1.55 Plum Pocket Aces 2.10
2.10 Sthl Legend Erry 2.51
2.40 Sthl Dado Mush 2.57

All the best
Ross

[davyboy]

hi, i dont want to get to a point were i am adding rules
to suit the results, ... but one other rule i do have on my other lay system is that if there are more than 2 or more non runners i void the lay, rossd can you add that to the others i mentioned earlier ie min 8 runners, max 5.0 cutoff.

[Rossd1]

Davy,

No problems and see where you are coming from. Have to say today was not great, early days though. Will update tomorrow morning.

I do have a quick question and a point to make.

First the point - I am posting the odds at the time I check them and there is going to be fluctuation. However as you and most I do not have the time to check the odds all morning etc and get the best on offer. Wish I was a proffesional and could. My only concern is that the P/L on this is only going to be a guide to simulate the selection process, there could be a better possible profit potential.

The question - based on the above, if this was real time and I was placing the bets as I post, what would you do if 3+ NR were to happen after placing the bets.

I will include this and backdate the results tomorrow, however if the rules permit I will take for granted that the runners at the off are final and not at the time of my post. I hope this does not break any of the PL rules for this section and if it does, please let me know.

I will set up over the next week or some spreadsheets that will simulate all eventualities as discussed so far and also any future changes.

As I said I will be home w/c 14th and will have a good bit of time on my hands. Once all set up will let you know and e-mail you the results and findings with various variables. Also can send to anyone intereted.

I would like to state that I will be travelling home next Friday and then going away with the misses for the weekend (have not seen her for about 5-6 weeks). Would appreciate if someone could post the selections and odds on Fri-Sun 11-13th and I will update the PL on the Monday.

All the best
Ross

[davyboy]

yeh i know what you are saying but i believe the non runner rule is an important one reducing the field cannot help even if its two 20/1 shots!, i stick by it religously & i make a point never to place my lays more than 30 mins before the off, on occasions i have been caught out but not often.

i know this will only cause you more hardship with trying to monitor the situation but hopefully you will cope?.

thanx for your help rossd.

[Rossd1]

Yesterdays results

Ok, for today. All selections by bottom 10 not selected by top 5 at any odds and runners. All selections lay 1 pt.

12.40 Sthl Dickie Le Davoir 4.60 (1st) } loss -3.60
1.25 Plum Kruguyrova 2.24 (1st) } loss -1.24
1.55 Plum Pocket Aces 2.10 (1st) } loss -1.10
2.10 Sthl Legend Erry 2.51 (1st) } loss -1.51
2.25 Plum Migwell 8.40 (UP) } win +0.95
2.40 Sthl My Mentor 10.50 (2nd) } win +0.95
2.40 Sthl Dado Mush 2.57 (1st) } loss -1.57
3.25 Plum The Hardy Boy 2.52 (UP) } win +0.95

Days loss of -6.17pts

All selections by bottom 10 not selected by top 5 with min 8 runners and no greater than 5.0 odds. All selections lay 1 pt.

12.40 Sthl Dickie Le Davoir 4.60 (1st) } loss -3.60
1.55 Plum Pocket Aces 2.10 (1st) } loss -1.10
2.10 Sthl Legend Erry 2.51 (1st) } loss -1.51
2.40 Sthl Dado Mush 2.57 (1st) } loss -1.57

Days loss of -7.78

[Rossd1]

All selections by bottom 10 not selected by top 5 at any odds and runners. All selections lay 1 pt.

12.50 Sout Strathmore 5.80
1.30 Ludl Pauntley Gofa 17.00
1.30 Ludl Amir El Jabal 5.40
2.00 Ludl Ingratitude 3.75
2.10 Taun Soulard 8.20
2.40 Taun Fiddling Again 3.20
2.50 Sout Elusive Warrior 3.15
3.10 Taun Treasulier 4.90
3.20 Sout Cragganmore Creek 3.85
3.40 Taun Delena 17.00

All selections by bottom 10 not selected by top 5 with min 8 runners and no greater than 5.0 odds. All selections lay 1 pt.

2.00 Ludl Ingratitude 3.75
2.40 Taun Fiddling Again 3.20
3.20 Sout Cragganmore Creek 3.85

All the best
Ross