Quick System

[goldstrike]

Great work asever ralphie. Thanks again. Torrens was very impressive imo yesterday- one of the commentators even remarked to check out if it was running again this week. Will be suprised if not in the first two atleast.

[ralphie7]

goldstrike
thanks mate
just found out its a Non-Runner
which is a shame as it looked a good un

[goldstrike]

Shame about that- Though hopefuly he'll of recovered to turn up for his entry on friday at chester.

[mrmuzeman]

Congrats on yesterdays selection, great stuff. Must admit I looked at it and didnt fancy it at all yet it still came in! Shows what a super system this is!

[ralphie7]

Herp
the fav. lost it at the start.
4th and 5th but not that far away
always tomorow


goldstrike
hopefuly


mrmuzeman
thanks mate
it was a good day

[ralphie7]

RESULT

Newmarket 02:30 QUEEN OF FIRE.....4th

Pontefract 03:55 TORRENS.....Non-Runner

Uttoxeter 08:40 ANGIES'S DOUBLE.....nowhere



Todays Profit = - 20.00 pts.

---------------------
Bank = + 1034.43 pts.
Profit = + 934.43 pts.
---------------------

4th Drawn 5	¾l	Queen of Fire	2	T E Durcan	10-1
			8 9	M Channon
		Slowly into stride, held up towards rear, headway and switched right over 1f out, ran on inside final furlong

Non Runner

Torrens(IRE)

6 Angie´s Double

chased leading pair after 4th until ridden before 7th, weakened before next

[evad]

theres always 2morrow

[ralphie7]

Wednesday 06/07/2005

NO SELECTIONS

[tipstar]

Ralphie
heres the stats you were after
theres a slight variance in profit due to a couple of your calcs being out and the rounding up of odds by the s/sheet

Current method
Win / ew
total bets 325
wins/ew 143
ave odds 4.09
strike rate 44%
staked 3250
returned 4248.59
profit 998.59
R.O.I 30.73%
longest losing runs 8*1....7*3
longest winning runs 6*2...5*3....4*3
Out of the 143 sucessful bets 32 were backed e/w
Out of the 32 e/w bets 14 actualy won (43%) the remainder obviously placed.

Win Only
total bets 325
wins 125
ave odds 3.46
strike rate 38.46%
staked 3250
returned 4340.99
profit 1090.99
R.O.I 33.57
longest losing runs 14*1...9*1...8*1...7*2
longest winning runs 6*1...5*1...4*3...3*9


Apart from the one losing run of 14 the win/ew stats are similar to the win only stats
The only diference being the increased profit from backing selections win only.
So if you can handle the odd blip of a losing run of 14 then win only is the way to go.
Actualy you have about a 10% chance of catching a losing run of 14 from a strikerate of 33% on 325 bets

X = N x S^2 x (1-S)^L.

X = Number of losing runs of length L
N = Number of results.
S = Strikerate (as a decimal fraction).
^ = To the power of.
L = Length of losing run

X = 325 x 0.33^2 x (1-0.33)^14= .1061

=10.61%

so you can say you were a bit unlucky with that, but stats and racing dont always work out quite like they should.

Hope this was what you were looking for,would have put it up sooner but got caught up in something else.

Fcuk me look at the time its nearly 11.30 cant stay here all day pubs open
catch ya later
(if you need anything else just give me a shout)

[ralphie7]

tipstar
what can I say mate
that is brilliant
first you provide me with the best Excel spreadsheet
I have ever had. then you end up providing me
with every stat I ever wanted for the Quick System
unbelievable you are one hell of a guy

I am still entering the results onto the spreadsheet
but I would have been a while finishing yet.
I originally lost them all when PC crashed.
no copy I was gutted.


THANK YOU

[ralphie7]

Thursday 07/07/2005

Newmarket 02:30 KAMANDA LAUGH
f/c. 8/1
stake = 10 pts. WIN


from today the staking will be :-
up to 10/1 stake = 10 pts. WIN
over 10/1 stake = 5 pts. EACH WAY

after reading Tipstars stats
a change to the staking should be made.
backing all Win Only would have increased the profit
but I am still going to be ultra cautious and still
back EACH WAY if the forecast price is over 10/1



sorry this is late been trying to contact my son
7eric who is in London flat hunting
bloody terrorists
i know he will probably be ok
its just the not knowing

[tipstar]

Ralphie
heres a breakdown of the winning e/w bets

14	18	bets
6.39	7.39	ave odds
win/place odds	placed odds
5.5	8
7.5	8
4.5	6
12	20
5	2.75
4.5	4.5
3.5	3.3
8	5.5
8	4.5
3.5	8
4.5	8
7	14
7	8
9	5
	3.5
	14
	3
	7

You only had two winning (not placed) e/w bets that were 8/1 or over in 325 bets
you have 15 bets @ < 5/1 (46.87%) that would not have been backed e/w if betting before the off.
Of the ones that placed they are mainly in the 7/1-20/1 bracket.
So looking at it stats wise your cut off point for max profit on win only should be around 7/1 or 8/1 mark if you were still continuing to do some e/w.

[ralphie7]

Sorry Tipstar
only just seen this 14:29 so too late for today
but thanks for the extra info
thats a great help

================================
from tomorrow the
NEW STAKING will be
up to and including 6/1 stake = 10 pts WIN
7/1 and above stake = 5 pts. EACH WAY
================================

thanks again Tipstar
what would I do without you ?
was working up to asking you to look at it for me.
but didn't know if it was a bit cheeky
thanks mate
I owe you big time.
ralphie

[ralphie7]

RESULT

Newmarket 02:30 KAMANDA LAUGH.....nowhere


Todays Profit = - 10.00 pts.

---------------------
Bank = + 1024.43 pts.
Profit = + 924.43 pts.
---------------------

7	s.h	14	Kamanda Laugh	8-11	M Hills	B W Hills	4	7/1
			raced stand side, prominent, led stand side group over 2f out, ridden and every chance with far side group over 1f out, kept on same pace final furlong opened 8/1 £10000-£1200 £5000-£600 £3000-£360 £2000-£240

[ralphie7]

Friday 08/07/2005

Chester 08:00 TORRENS
f/c. 5/1
stake = 10 pts. WIN

[ralphie7]

RESULT

Chester 08:00 TORRENS.....1st..9/2


Todays Profit = +45.00 pts.

---------------------
Bank = + 1069.43 pts.
Profit = + 969.43 pts.
---------------------

1		4	Torrens (IRE)	8-9	T Hamilton (3)	R A Fahey	3	9/2
			led early, held up, headway 3f out, ridden to lead 1f out, ran on opened 7/2 touched 5/1 £2500-£500 (x2) £1500-£300 £3600-£800

[maborouk]

Nice one Ralphie, followed a couple this week and almost missed this one, had to go shopping with the wife , but just got back in time,

Nice one mate

[spreadman]

Thanks, Ralphie for 9/2

[Tyro]

Thanks again Ralphie7 for Torrens. Did you contact your son 7Eric who was in London looking for a flat? I notice that you call him 7Eric, is he the seventh son of a seventh son, or what is the significance of the number seven ?
All the Best, Tyro

[Rab]

Drifted nicely from opening show Ralphie,Wonder how many this puts off having a bet?,

Cheers and good luck Rab