Quick System

[ralphie7]

thanks evad


starman99
sorry mate i aren't sure.
I am trying to get caught up with entering the records
but i have been a bit sidetracked with one or two things recently.
then a computer fan failed on me and I didn't realise it until it
was too late. I ended up having to re-install everything.
Which if i had only realised iwhat the problem was earlier I wouldn't
have had to do.
It made the computer unstable it was doing weird things like resetting
itself or everything going dead mouse ,keyboard the lot.
Anyway i didn't lose my records this time I had them backed up on CD.

I will get back to the job of catching up now
the thing is i can only spend so much time each day doing this
as I am also trying to catch up with other things to keep the Tax
man off my back.

I will do my best though
ralphie

[ralphie7]

Thursday 31/08/2006

NO SELECTIONS

[starman99]

No problem Ralphie! Yes computers definitely don't like to get too hot, pleased you had your stuff backed up...

[ralphie7]

Friday 01/09/2006

NO SELECTIONS

[ralphie7]

Saturday 02/09/2006

NO SELECTIONS

[ralphie7]

Sunday 03/09/2006

Lingfield 02:40 YOUNG BERTIE
f/c. 6/1
stake = 10 pts. WIN

[ralphie7]

RESULT

Lingfield 02:40 YOUNG BERTIE.....nowhere


Todays Profit = - 10.00 pts.

---------------------
Bank = + 1516.65 pts.
Profit = + 1416.65 pts.
---------------------

[ralphie7]

Monday 04/09/2006

Newcastle 03:30 VICE ADMIRAL
f/c. 9/4
stake = 10 pts. WIN

Warwick 03:50 FRENCH MANNEQUIN ***
f/c. 5/1
Warwick 03:50 ALAMBIC ***
f/c. 13/8
stake = 10 pts. WIN

*** 2 selections in the same race
so
if they both run then NO SELECTION

[slapdash]

Well done, yet again, ralphie! When I saw the SP of Vice Admiral (11/2!!! ),
I thought it must be a misprint!

I wondered if you'd kept track of what happens when the system has two
selections in the same race? Any profit in backing both? Or doing the forecast,
maybe?

[ralphie7]

RESULT

Newcastle 03:30 VICE ADMIRAL.....1st..11/2

Todays Profit = + 55.00 pts.

---------------------
Bank = + 1571.65 pts.
Profit = + 1471.65 pts.
---------------------

FRENCH MANNEQUIN
and
ALAMBIC

both ran in the same race
so were NOT SELECTIONS

[ralphie7]

slapdash
thanks mate

i know couldn't believe it
the price was well good.
but i aren't complaining

regarding the 2 selections in the same race
sorry never kept any records of these but
i can't remember it happening more than say
four times since i started this.
made that rule cause its sods law that
i would have picked the wrong one.The only
other way would be to back em both.
they both got beat today so that made today
even sweeter.

[evad]

nice 1 m8

[Mr Bond]

Ralphie,

Winning at SP is superb stuff. Have you consider taking the best early price once the bookies have priced up? Maybe you would do even better that way though it would be harder to get a decent stake on. Any records on whether that would be even more profitable? What about using Betfair instead?

Any views.

[ralphie7]

thanks evad



Mr Bond
thanks mate
I have kept it to S/P mainly for consistency
cause that was how i started it.
I don't know if you would do better
taking the earlier price as i have never
checked. You probably would but i honestly
don't know.
i know there have been occasions when people
have come on here and said they had taken
the early price and in doing so had been on a
winner.
Thats great and i luv to here about anyone taking
money off the bookies the more the better.
I aren't putting anyone off doing that its their choice.

just hope it keeps going making a profit for us
for a while longer

All the Best
raphie

[ralphie7]

Tuesday 05/09/2006

NO SELECTIONS

[ZuluWarrior]

Problem with early prices is the popular horses tend to shorten. Yesturdays winner was an exception, but I use EP alot and looking at the difference in return from my system SP's are generally shorter for attractive runners.

Oh and I happen to know that when both selections from a 2 horse Ralphies system pick run, it isn't profitable to play the forecast or both, at all, I've tried it...

Superb Stuff Ralphie!

[slapdash]

Originally Posted by ZuluWarrior

Problem with early prices is the popular horses tend to shorten. Yesturdays winner was an exception, but I use EP alot and looking at the difference in return from my system SP's are generally shorter for attractive runners.

I've noticed a few times that Ralphie's picks have drifted quite a lot. It doesn't
always happen, of course, and I can't say I've kept any kind of careful record. Have you?

I suppose it depends on exactly why this system is so profitable. Of
course, any system that profitably picks winners is successful because it
identifies horses whose prices underestimate the chances of the horse (do
I get a prize for stating the obvious? ). But if it's mainly the general
betting public that underestimate the horses rather than the bookies, then
maybe that would lead to SP being better than EP in general?

Oh and I happen to know that when both selections from a 2 horse Ralphies system pick run, it isn't profitable to play the forecast or both, at all, I've tried it...

OK. Thanks.

[ZuluWarrior]

Originally Posted by ZuluWarrior

Problem with early prices is the popular horses tend to shorten.

Originally Posted by slapdash

any system that profitably picks winners is successful because it identifies horses whose prices underestimate the chances of the horse

I think we both qualify for obvious comment awards there! hehe

Here's a thought, like you said, its why the system is profitable. If you run a (small and simple) system that attracts favourites and is based on a popular criteria, like I do with my Spencer/Dettori one, the odds will most likely shorten towards SP, whereas this system seems not to be based on an easy/popular opening criteria, and hence there is less 'rest of the world' market interest and the price will most likely drift???

I wouldn't say however that a successful system always picks horses with under valued market value. For instance mine went through august with no price comparison at all, the trick there was knocking out a large percentage of the losers and retaining as many winners as possible, price regardless (as they say a winners a winner).

Certainly some interesting points. However I am gonna stop hijacking Ralphies thread now, lest we incur his wrath!

[ralphie7]

However I am gonna stop hijacking Ralphies thread now, lest we incur his wrath!

no guys really
i am still learning and i find it very interesting

[slapdash]

Out of interest, Ralphie, do you have a theory about why this has been quite
so successful? I don't know the exact rules for the system, though I have a
rough idea, and I presume it must be something to do with people (wrongly)
thinking "He won a few days ago. Poor thing must be knackered! No chance
he'll do it again so soon." ???