NH Novice Watch 2009

[BH]

In the new year resolution thread we did I mentioned I wanted to start my own ratings for a specialised type of racing for the new jump season. I did this a few years ago and gave up due to lack of time but things have changed and the input is far easier and with the help of the new RP facility its up and running. The main reason I wanted to do this is to give me a focus during the summer jump season as I dont bet on the flat much.

I have decided to concentrate on Novice races, primarily hurdlers but will include Chases when I see fit. It was going to be tested further but pleasing results so far have brought it forward. The ratings are heavily based on Class, something I believe counts a lot in these races, Grade of race and Course have a lot to say in my calculations. Extra points are awarded for different things, I watch every race and hopefully race reading experience over the years will tell me that I can believe my eyes and convert that into the rating figure.

As all Ratings followers will know its not about betting the top rated horses blindly, that soon leads to the poor house, but how you can interpret the ratings on the race at hand and deciding if a certain horse is likely to reproduce its best in those conditions.

I intend to review each Novice Hurdle and some Chases when they are run throughout the summer months, I will state the top rated horses and also what I think will run well and suggested selection(s).

As its a rule on the PL (not mine!) to keep profit and loss figures in individual threads I will use just level stakes,I think you will know by my review whether I fancy one more than another, I will also keep a check on how the top rated ones perform stats wise to a £1 stake.

BH

[TheRat]

All thes best mate, sounds good
Pick out those future stars

[peteg40]

Good Luck with this thread Graham....... Will watch with interest

[stewartd14]

Best of luck Grae

[BH]

Thanks guys, appreciated

[BH]

Sunday 10th May
3 NH meetings to kick us off and although no novices at Southwell we have one at Plumpton and two at Uttoxeter to look at. Any bets are on a scale of 0-10pts.

240 Plumpton

106 Wade Farm Billy, 96 Rampant Ronnie, 77 Miss Cruisecontrol

Wade Farm Billy stands out here and should be a short price to open his account after some decent placed efforts (7/4 in RP??). Doubts about his stamina have been raised but in this class on this ground he will get away with it. Plenty of unknowns in the race but will have to be smart first time out to upset the fav. Rampant Ronnie disappointed last time but ran well the time before and could bounce back.

200 Uttoxeter

109 Factotum, 108 China Gold, 103 Monterrico

One thing you get to know about Novices if you watch them closely and thats you realise how hard it is carry a penalty to victory, China Gold and Monterrico may find that out here, they have the best form on offer but the 7lb Factotum recieves could just tip the balance. Should be quite close though and Risk could run well at a bigger price.

230 Uttoxeter

111 Jimbatai, 111 Khumbu, 102 Wolf Moon

Dont like the look of this race really, 3 miles is unknown for nearly all of the runners. Allonby Bay and Wolf Moon head the market, the former was beaten miles last time out at Newbury and the latter won a poor race at Towcester over 2 miles for which he carries a penalty. He at least has ran over the trip in a bumper over in Ireland. Jimbatai ran ok on his debut for Tim Vaughan over 2m6f but finished very tired that day, may have needed the run? Khumbu achieved his rating last year and ran average in a handicap since.

Bets;(Prices will be added if taken otherwise SP)

240 Plumpton: Wade Farm Billy 7pts Win
240 Plumpton: Rampant Ronnie 1pt Win
200 Uttoxeter: Risk 1pt E/W

[diamond1924]

Good luck Graham, this will be an interesting adventure

[BH]

Round Up

Wade Farm Billy was a disappointment, raced wide and hung right all the way up the home straight, doesnt look straightforward and the stamina doubts maybe right, it left the race open for Rampant Ronnie who came back to his best but beat nothing really.
In the 2.00 top rated Factotum won but was a very skinny price and Risk stayed on to snatch third place for EW money, didnt expect 16's but all the help is appreciated.
The 2.30 at Uttoxeter was fought out by the top four, i suspect Jimbatai doesnt stay 3 miles, Khumbu ran on well and would have been closer but for clouting the last the winner did well to deliver with a penalty but can be opposed if taking on anything above average and may have to go handicapping now.

Results

240 Plumpton: Wade Farm Billy 7pts Win Lost
240 Plumpton: Rampant Ronnie 1pt Win Won 5/1
200 Uttoxeter: Risk 1pt E/W 3rd 16/1

Stakes: 10pts
Returns: 7.20pts
Loss : 2.80pts

Top Rated Selections
Stakes : 3pts
Returns: 1.67pts
Loss : 1.33pts


BH

[BH]

6.00 Towcester

114 Baron Breeze, 104 Upham Atom, 101 Right Option

Just the one race today and not very satisfactory from a ratings point of view, the top rated horse is from Ireland and sometimes can be tricky equating the form. Baron Breeze looks like being odds on too but his 4th at Down Royal which was a £5k race does look better than the english form on offer.

No bet

[fintron]

good luck with it BH

[BH]

Round Up

Baron Breeze fell when leading and suffered a bad injury, far too early to say how the race would have panned out but the sceond and third fav ran below their marks leaving chaser Come Out Firing to win the race. Pretty pleased to have left the race alone.

Top Rated Stats

Stakes : 4pts
Returns : 1.67pts
Loss : 2.33pts

[TOP CAT]

Originally Posted by BH

Round Up

Baron Breeze fell when leading and suffered a bad injury, far too early to say how the race would have panned out but the sceond and third fav ran below their marks leaving chaser Come Out Firing to win the race. Pretty pleased to have left the race alone.

Top Rated Stats

Stakes : 4pts
Returns : 1.67pts
Loss : 2.33pts

Its a thing people never take into account with chasing, ''falling'' or being brung down.
I have a good interest in this also BH the flat is just not my game, am a fish out of water just now.

[BH]

Ok, two races at Newton Abbot today;

6.00

105 Candle, 103 Call Me A Legend, 80 Ambrose Princess

Call Me A Legend obviously has the experience but has to conceed a stone to once useful flat horse Candle. On a line through Sylroy the horse that beat Candle last time actually gives the fav plenty in hand, its a close call for me. Ambrose Princess should improve for the better ground and wont be a million miles away.

7.30

105 Dais Return, 103 Pilgrims Lane, 97 Bolton Hall

Dais Return is favourite here and has the most solid form, has improved the last twice for better ground and is a real battler. The two dangers in the market have questions to answer and look poor value due to the connections. The Nicholls horse Pilgrims Lane won a soft race and last time was beaten after a circuit. The McCoy mount Bolton Hall has been handicapping and steps up in trip, seems to me to have had his chance and looks moderate. Of the rags, Norwest and Merry Terry may run well a big prices.

Bets

600 NA: Candle to Place (1.40 BF) 10pts
730 NA: Dais Return (2.60 BF) 2pts

[BH]

Round Up

In the 6.00 I got lucky with the place bet on Candle, he never jumped a hurdle and did well to get round. The winner always looked an improver and different tactics made the difference. The fav will find it hard carrying the penalties even at this time of year. I did say the other day these penalties are bigger than you think.
The 7.30 went to plan, Dias Return led all the way, Bolton Hall looks exposed and Pligrims Way is over rated and i'll be re-assessing him. The third Norwest ran well at decent odds and may nick a poor race.

Results

600 NA: Candle to Place (1.40 BF) 10pts 3rd +3.80
730 NA: Dais Return (2.60 BF) 2pts WON +2.94
Includes 5% Comm.

Stakes: 22pts
Returns: 25.94pts
Profit : 3.94pts

Top Rated SP to a £1 stake
Stakes: 6pts
Returns: 3.92pts

BH
Loss: -2.08pts

[cc75]

Originally Posted by BH

Round Up

In the 6.00 I got lucky with the place bet on Candle, he never jumped a hurdle and did well to get round. The winner always looked an improver and different tactics made the difference. The fav will find it hard carrying the penalties even at this time of year. I did say the other day these penalties are bigger than you think.
The 7.30 went to plan, Dias Return led all the way, Bolton Hall looks exposed and Pligrims Way is over rated and i'll be re-assessing him. The third Norwest ran well at decent odds and may nick a poor race.

Results

600 NA: Candle to Place (1.40 BF) 10pts 3rd +3.80
730 NA: Dais Return (2.60 BF) 2pts WON +2.94
Includes 5% Comm.

Stakes: 22pts
Returns: 25.94pts
Profit : 3.94pts

Top Rated SP to a £1 stake
Stakes: 6pts
Returns: 3.92pts

BH
Loss: -2.08pts

Nice returns on your 2 bets today Graham, best of luck with this thread - sure it will do grand mate!!

[BH]

Wed 13th May

Supposed to the flat season and we have three jump meetings, race planning has always been mind boggling to me.

220 Exeter

112 Lindy Lou, 99 Je Ne Sais Plus, 98 Sparkling Montjeu

This looks a very good opportunity for the fav Lindy Lou, the only doubt is that she pulls hard and hasnt quite got home so far. AP in the saddle today and looks ready to win. Je Ne Sais Plus and Vics World look the dangers as I dont think the top one can win under a penalty.

200 Fontwell

112 Balthzar King, 109 Quantique, 106 Timons Present

I find this race quite competative despite Balthazar King being very short in the betting, he's had a few chances now and still yet to win. I think the three mares at the bottom plus Ashmolian and Creagh Bay all have improvement in them and wouldnt like to take a short price about anything.

700 Perth

111 Wikaala, 103 Casual Affair, 69 Alans Legacy

Awful race, 16 runners and only a few with any hurdles form, the fav has Irish form which looks good enough here with the only danger Casual Affair and not a race to get too involved with.

Bets

220 Exeter: Lindy Lou 8pts (8/15 Sporting Bet)

BH

[BH]

Round Up

The first thing to say is obviously a poor day, but like most things we hope to learn as we go on and the two bets that have been costly so far are very similar, on both occaisons I questioned their stamina beforehand yet still backed them, tells me that no matter how highly they may be rated they still have to get home to deliver and although people think you only need stamina in soft ground, because of the quicker pace they need to get home just as much on firm ground.

Anyway, not all doom and gloom, take out Lindy Lou and the next two were first and second. Did well to avoid the fav in the next race and actually put the 20/1 winner Newsman up in the DHRC today and the last race was as unpredictable as I thought.

Results

220 Exeter: Lindy Lou 8pts (8/15 Sporting Bet) Lost

Stakes: 30pts
Returns: 25.94pts
Loss : (4.06)pts

Top Rated
Stakes : 9pts
Returns: 3.92
Loss : (5.08) pts

[BH]

Moved this to the systems sections as the the races are decided by a stategy and the selections by way of points scoring, therefore I suppose its a system.

Anyway on to today, two races to concentrate on, both small fields.

810 Ludlow

108 Kings Alchemist, 103 Horseford Hill, 96 Prince Of Gdansk

Looks a two horse race and they make Horseford Hill the favourite but I think its overall form is nothing special and reckon Kings Alchemist is still improving and wants this type of trip. He had been knocking on the door a couple of times before being presented with the race last time when the clear leader came down, he beat the others fair and square and the Henderson horse scraped home at Towcester and may want 3 miles to show his best.

200 Perth

109 Present Gesture, 103 Divers, 100 Mr Woods

Present Gesture comes over from Ireland once again and you cant ignore his defeat of Cobai and the a good run a £17k race at Cheltenham. Divers has had some decent chances lately and may find one too good once again.

Bets

200 Perth: Present Gesture 2pts (7/4 Hills)
810 Ludlow: Kings Alchemist 4pts (6/4 Lads)

[BH]

Round Up

Couldnt have got it more wrong today really, both selections travelled very well and neither found anything once push to came to shove. Never mind early days yet.

200 Perth: Present Gesture 2pts (7/4 Hills) Lost
810 Ludlow: Kings Alchemist 4pts (6/4 Lads) Lost

Stakes: 36pts
Returns: 25.94pts
Loss : (10.06)pts

Top Rated
Stakes : 11pts
Returns: 3.92
Loss : (7.08) pts

[BH]

6.30 Aintree

103 Thumbs Up, 96 Thoroughly Red, 86 Shiwawa

Interesting race, we have the proven form of the odds on fav Thumbs Up against two horses in Shiwawa and Coin Of The Realm who you feel will improve a lot on what they have shown so far. The outsider Thoroughly Red seems to have been ignored in the betting and could run well at a big price. The ground has gone Gd/Sft which wont inconvenience the fav so looks the solid option.

Bet

Thumbs Up 5pts (1/2 bet365 BOG)