The Michelle Dewberry System - The Punters Lounge

billy the punter · 15-07-2008, 02:53

I'm not one for systems, but I've recently found myself laying a few horses that had previously won apprentice handicaps.

These are usually unpenalised winners that are fancied NTO.

The theory behind it is the form is questionable in apprentice races due to the jockey bias being stronger in these races than it is in other races.
Having a competent rider is more of a plus in these races. The gap between best and worst is huge sometimes, therefore the best horse(s) in the race win less often than they would in other race types.

These inexperienced riders also get the pace wrong quite a bit which also flatters/hinders many runners.

Obviously the form then has to be treated with caution and those that win apprentice races may've been flattered when doing so and may not go on as expected.

I will do my best to record as many as I can. The next one I can see is:

Wednesday
Kempton
6.20 Constant Cheers
Tally A - 1pt lay
Tally B - lay to lose 1pt

I'll run this thread as laying to level stakes and laying to lost level stakes.
5/1 or under only.

I'll do it to the end of the season and we'll see how it goes. It may turn out that each one needs to be judged on it's merits - as I have been doing.

billy the punter · 16-07-2008, 21:43

First one well beaten 2ndfav - out the frame.

aliando · 16-07-2008, 21:48

good start mate!

billy the punter · 17-07-2008, 13:24

Cheers ali.

Hamilton
3.25
Flashy Max
Tally A - 1py Lay
Tally B - Lay to lose 1pt

billy the punter · 17-07-2008, 14:34

Bah. 11/4 winner.

Flashy Max won despite his rider last time to be fair - he did looked like he won with a bit in hand at Bevereley after hanging.

But a system means ALL selections that fit the bill have to be included.

Hit over 20/1 in running too!

I have no idea how this is going to pan out laying ALL apprentice winners, but that's what the thread is for I suppose.

We shall see.

billy the punter · 04-08-2008, 00:48

I really haven't got the time to monitor this system. Sorry I really thought I would be ok.

There has been many I've noticed since - some have been beaten at short odds, some have won. I've noticed that nearly all are fairly short so I think this could have potential.

I will do some research over the winter and looks at this for next season.

No good doing it half-baked.

15-07-2008, 02:53	#1 (permalink)
billy the punter Judge Join Date: 09 Mar 2008 Location: London Posts: 2,427	The Michelle Dewberry System I'm not one for systems, but I've recently found myself laying a few horses that had previously won apprentice handicaps. These are usually unpenalised winners that are fancied NTO. The theory behind it is the form is questionable in apprentice races due to the jockey bias being stronger in these races than it is in other races. Having a competent rider is more of a plus in these races. The gap between best and worst is huge sometimes, therefore the best horse(s) in the race win less often than they would in other race types. These inexperienced riders also get the pace wrong quite a bit which also flatters/hinders many runners. Obviously the form then has to be treated with caution and those that win apprentice races may've been flattered when doing so and may not go on as expected. I will do my best to record as many as I can. The next one I can see is: Wednesday Kempton 6.20 Constant Cheers Tally A - 1pt lay Tally B - lay to lose 1pt I'll run this thread as laying to level stakes and laying to lost level stakes. 5/1 or under only. I'll do it to the end of the season and we'll see how it goes. It may turn out that each one needs to be judged on it's merits - as I have been doing.

16-07-2008, 21:43	#2 (permalink)
billy the punter Judge Join Date: 09 Mar 2008 Location: London Posts: 2,427	Re: The Michelle Dewberry System First one well beaten 2ndfav - out the frame.

17-07-2008, 13:24	#4 (permalink)
billy the punter Judge Join Date: 09 Mar 2008 Location: London Posts: 2,427	Re: The Michelle Dewberry System Cheers ali. Hamilton 3.25 Flashy Max Tally A - 1py Lay Tally B - Lay to lose 1pt Last edited by billy the punter; 17-07-2008 at 13:43.

17-07-2008, 14:34	#5 (permalink)
billy the punter Judge Join Date: 09 Mar 2008 Location: London Posts: 2,427	Re: The Michelle Dewberry System Bah. 11/4 winner. Flashy Max won despite his rider last time to be fair - he did looked like he won with a bit in hand at Bevereley after hanging. But a system means ALL selections that fit the bill have to be included. Hit over 20/1 in running too! I have no idea how this is going to pan out laying ALL apprentice winners, but that's what the thread is for I suppose. We shall see.

04-08-2008, 00:48	#6 (permalink)
billy the punter Judge Join Date: 09 Mar 2008 Location: London Posts: 2,427	Re: The Michelle Dewberry System I really haven't got the time to monitor this system. Sorry I really thought I would be ok. There has been many I've noticed since - some have been beaten at short odds, some have won. I've noticed that nearly all are fairly short so I think this could have potential. I will do some research over the winter and looks at this for next season. No good doing it half-baked.

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