Lucky 15 Suicide Mission

[slapdash]

Fourth bet:

Avelian (3.15 Chester)
Oh Gracious Me (4.25 Newcastle)
Ishibee (6.45 Wolverhampton)
Good Article (8.30 Lingfield)

15 point EW Lucky 15. 450 points staked.

[THE % MAN]

Originally Posted by slapdash

Fourth bet:

Avelian (3.15 Chester)
Oh Gracious Me (4.25 Newcastle)
Ishibee (6.45 Wolverhampton)
Good Article (8.30 Lingfield)

15 point EW Lucky 15. 450 points staked.

Lets hope theirs some bookies left after today and as always the very best of luck with these picks

[Captain Kak]

Aye, good luck slap

[FleetFanatic]

Sometimes I love you man.

[kevsul]

Nice one slapdash..but i am a bit peeved as early price went against me today.

Good Artical took 5/1 and wins 12/1

But still happy to be on a winner.

[FleetFanatic]

I took sp - learnt my lesson after a few bets the other day drifted.

[clarky101]

Noticed this post earlier today & would like to say WELL DONE Slapdash

[slapdash]

Originally Posted by slapdash

Avelian (3.15 Chester) placed (11/4)
Oh Gracious Me (4.25 Newcastle) lost
Ishibee (6.45 Wolverhampton) placed (7/1)
Good Article (8.30 Lingfield) won (12/1)

15 point EW Lucky 15. 450 points staked.

I make that a 513.07 point profit, including the double odds bonus
for one winner.


Starting bank 1000
Current bank 3528.96

Level stakes 1 point EW Lucky 15s:

Bets: 4
Profit/Loss: 321.88
Including benefit from 2x bonus: 20
Yield: 268.33%

[slapdash]

I was falling asleep while I was updating the bank last night, and forgot to
say thanks for all the nice comments.

Kev, about SP vs. early prices: I'm sticking to SP in this thread, mainly
just to keep things simple. But it certainly might be right to take an early
price sometimes. All the horses I include here are also included individually
in my thread in Systems and Strategy, and there I say if I'm taking an early
price or SP. I'm not sure how good I am at choosing though: yesterday I
made the right decisions, but I sometimes get it badly wrong. By the way,
if you were going to take a price on Good Article, you could have done
better by shopping around: if I remember correctly, a couple of bookies had
8/1 in the morning.

[slapdash]

I'm off for a few days holiday, and won't be posting here again until next
Saturday at the earliest.

By the way, I think it will be unusual for me to have a bet here two days in
a row. As I said in the first post, I'm not going to post for the sake of it,
and I think one bet every week or two will be typical.

[steved]

i fancy a win today, slappy lad where are you

[lol001]

Interesting system. A huge profit for just 4 bets!!!
Hope that it will be profitable for a long period

But have some question:

Originally Posted by slapdash

Actually, some independent
bookies offer 3x the odds, but I'll assume 2x here.

What bookies offer 3x the odds?
It's strange to place a bet in the 2x bookie if I can use 3x bookie (odss are sp).

Why do you use lucky15, not lucky31 (Is it any reason to use lucky15)?

Also as I see you increase stake after each win. Will you decrease a stake after lose?

As I understand
you need 3 places in each lucky15 to return you stake and gets some profit
Less than 3 places gets a lose.
1 winner only gets a small lose probably
1 winner and 1 place (if 2x or 3x odds) gets a profit.
...
So I wonder do you have any history (on paper for example) for your system? How many horses took a place in each lucky15 on the history in average?

Of cource 2 winners and 1 or 2 places get a huge profit and compensate loses for other days.

[FleetFanatic]

Originally Posted by lol001

What bookies offer 3x the odds?
It's strange to place a bet in the 2x bookie if I can use 3x bookie (odss are sp).

Betfred in their shops, but only x2 online.

[slapdash]

Originally Posted by lol001

Interesting system. A huge profit for just 4 bets!!!
Hope that it will be profitable for a long period

I can promise you that it won't continue to be as profitable as this! But I
do hope to maintain a level stakes yield of 100%. Note that I said "hope",
not "expect"!

What bookies offer 3x the odds?
It's strange to place a bet in the 2x bookie if I can use 3x bookie (odss are sp).

I don't know of an online bookie that offers 3x (Sean Graham may do?). As
Fleet Fanatic said, Betfred do in their shops at the moment, and I know of
small bookies (not online) that do. I also noticed a William Hill shop offering
3x recently, but that may have been a special offer for a short period.
I'm assuming 2x here since many people may not have access to a 3x
bookie.

Why do you use lucky15, not lucky31 (Is it any reason to use lucky15)?

Even in a Lucky 15, it will be a long wait for 3 or 4 winners, so in the short
to medium term 5 units of the stake (the 4 win trebles and the 4-fold win
accumulator) will likely be "wasted". The "one winner" bonus compensates
to an extent. As I said, I estimate that it will be worth about two units on
average.

In a Lucky 31, there are 10 win trebles, 5 4-fold accumulators and a 5-fold
accumulator. So a much higher proportion of the stake goes on win
accumulators that will very rarely win. And the "one winner" bonus is only
worth about the same as with a Lucky 15.

With five selections, I think it would be much better to split the stake
five ways and put on five Lucky 15s.

Also as I see you increase stake after each win. Will you decrease a stake after lose?

Yes. The idea is that the total stake each time will be about 15% of the
current bank.

The staking system is really just for fun. I tried to estimate what
percentage stake would give the fastest growth of the bank, and got a
figure a bit higher than 15%. In practice though, if the bank did get
anywhere near a million points, then (depending on the size of your "point")
you would probably have problems finding bookies willing to take that large
a stake on a Lucky 15.

As I understand
you need 3 places in each lucky15 to return you stake and gets some profit
Less than 3 places gets a lose.
1 winner only gets a small lose probably
1 winner and 1 place (if 2x or 3x odds) gets a profit.
...

That sounds about right, depending on the odds of course. One winner and
one place (at 2x odds) will probably roughly break even.

So I wonder do you have any history (on paper for example) for your system?

Not really. The individual selections are nothing new: I'm just taking
selections from my other system when there are four clear selections
on the same day, most at reasonably short odds (so that the win doubles
and place trebles will have a reasonable strike rate), and it looks reasonable
to take SP. Apart from that, my estimates are just based on the success of
the individual bets.

[slapdash]

Fifth bet:

Sofooh (2.20 Catterick)
Zilcash (4.30 Lingfield)
Roya (5.00 Lingfield)
Perfect Courtesy (6.35 Sandown)

17 point EW Lucky 15. 510 points staked.

[THE % MAN]

1st 1 Placed At 9/1

[FleetFanatic]

2nd 1 PLaced 8/1

[slapdash]

... but the third one only came fourth. I need the last one to place now to
avoid making a loss.

[RussP]

Originally Posted by slapdash

... but the third one only came fourth. I need the last one to place now to
avoid making a loss.

....and place it does....albeit at the skinny odds of 4/1

Well done Slapdash

[slapdash]

Originally Posted by slapdash

Sofooh (2.20 Catterick) placed (9/1)
Zilcash (4.30 Lingfield) placed (8/1)
Roya (5.00 Lingfield) lost
Perfect Courtesy (6.35 Sandown) placed (4/1)

17 point EW Lucky 15. 510 points staked.

I make that a 107.17 point profit.

Starting bank 1000
Current bank 3636.13

Level stakes 1 point EW Lucky 15s:

Bets: 5
Profit/Loss: 328.18
Including benefit from 2x bonus: 20
Yield: 218.79%