Lucky 15 Suicide Mission

[afrohughes]

slapdash u legend!!!
had a spare fiver and stuck it on that 20/1 winner u picked, thank you so much!!
how are you picking these horse? you got a system or just got a good instinct?

[slapdash]

Originally Posted by afrohughes

slapdash u legend!!!
had a spare fiver and stuck it on that 20/1 winner u picked, thank you so much!!
how are you picking these horse? you got a system or just got a good instinct?

See the first post of this thread for the idea of the selection method. I'm
looking for horses where the place part of an EW bet, but not necessarily the
win part, is good value, so I wouldn't recommend placing win only bets on
these. The idea of putting them in multiple bets (e.g., a Lucky 15) is that it
boosts the profit on the place part of the bets more than it boosts the loss
on the win part. Cavelloman uses similar ideas for some of his EW selections.

[ebogga]

Nice going Slapdash! I placed the bet today with Sportingbet but it seems I didn't get the 2x bonus. I got 19.80 return on a 0.5 (=15) bet. Have they stopped doing the bonus?

[slapdash]

Originally Posted by ebogga

Nice going Slapdash! I placed the bet today with Sportingbet but it seems I didn't get the 2x bonus. I got 19.80 return on a 0.5 (=15) bet. Have they stopped doing the bonus?

The bonus doesn't apply if there's a non-runner (though you get two units on
the winner anyway, once from the single and once from the double with the
non-runner, which is settled as a single).

Though if you bet at SP, you should have got 27.00 return.

Ah! I'm guessing you took an early price of 14/1? In that case 19.80 looks
correct.

[ebogga]

Yeah, sorry.. Took 14/1 as you guessed. Kinda makes sense you don't get the bonus with a non-runner. Thanks for the clarification!

[akm]

What is the optimal stake for E/W bets if I want to use the Kelly Criterion for single E/W bets?

[slapdash]

Originally Posted by akm

What is the optimal stake for E/W bets if I want to use the Kelly Criterion for single E/W bets?

It depends. Not just on the expected yield and the odds, but also on how much
of the yield comes from the win half of the bet and how much from the place
half. If most of the profit comes from the place bet, then the optimal stake
will be higher than if most of the profit comes from the win bet.

[slapdash]

Originally Posted by slapdash

It depends. Not just on the expected yield and the odds, but also on how much
of the yield comes from the win half of the bet and how much from the place
half. If most of the profit comes from the place bet, then the optimal stake
will be higher than if most of the profit comes from the win bet.

This is a bit off-topic here, so I've given a formula in the Systems and Strategy
forum.

I'm afraid it's a lot more complicated than the formula for simple win/lose bets.

[slapdash]

Twenty eighth bet:

Blue Hills (1.30 Southwell)
De Welsh Wizzard (1.50 Folkestone)
Parsou (2.40 Taunton)
Richards Sundance (3.10 Taunton)

26 point EW Lucky 15. Total stake 780 points.

[slapdash]

Originally Posted by slapdash

Twenty eighth bet:

Blue Hills (1.30 Southwell) lost
De Welsh Wizzard (1.50 Folkestone) lost
Parsou (2.40 Taunton) lost
Richards Sundance (3.10 Taunton) placed (9/2)

26 point EW Lucky 15. Total stake 780 points.

730.6 points loss.

Starting bank 1000
Current bank 4419.98

Level stakes 1 point EW Lucky 15s:

Bets: 28
Profit/Loss: +474.08 (Win half: +20.59. Place half: +453.50)
Including benefit from 2x bonus: 49.41
Yield: 56.44%

[slapdash]

My claim a few days ago that these would be few and far between is looking
a bit silly at the moment, but ...

Twenty ninth bet:

Thebelloftheball (1.50 Exeter)
Kyoto Summit (2.10 Newcastle)
Extreme North (2.25 Lingfield)
Caged Tiger (2.30 Leicester)

22 point EW Lucky 15. Total stake 660 points.

[slapdash]

Originally Posted by slapdash

Twenty ninth bet:

Thebelloftheball (1.50 Exeter) lost
Kyoto Summit (2.10 Newcastle) placed (11/4)
Extreme North (2.25 Lingfield) lost
Caged Tiger (2.30 Leicester) lost

22 point EW Lucky 15. Total stake 660 points.

625.9 points loss.

Starting bank 1000
Current bank 3794.08

Level stakes 1 point EW Lucky 15s:

Bets: 29
Profit/Loss: +445.63 (Win half: +5.59. Place half: +440.05)
Including benefit from 2x bonus: 49.41
Yield: 51.22%

[slapdash]

Just out of curiosity, I did a simulation of how the bank grows over 100 bets
with this staking plan (ignoring the rather important fact that once the bank
grows significantly, it will be impossible to place the bets at the given stake!),
using a rough estimate of the odds and success rate I expect for individual
horses.

I ran the simulation 20 times, starting with a bank of 1000 units as I did here,
and there's a rather extreme random variation in the results!

This was the worst run (the only one of the 20 where I ended up in deficit):





And this was the best one:




2e+07 means 20 million.

[mcgin]

Thats some wild fluctuations
What figures were you plugging into the simulation?

[Mr Intensity]

This time next year....

[slapdash]

Originally Posted by mcgin

Thats some wild fluctuations
What figures were you plugging into the simulation?

I was assuming all the horses were 6/1 with the place paying 1/5 the odds,
and that the probability of each horse winning was 14% and the probability
of it placing was 60%. That gives roughly the average yield I've got over the
last three years on the win and place parts of single bets, though it may be a
little optimistic, given that I'm always taking SP here.

I actually did the experiment just to get some idea of what bad spells
should typically look like (since I seem to be in one at the moment!). I was
expecting quite a lot of variability in the final balances after 100 bets, but I
wasn't expecting it to be quite so huge: a factor of about 20,000 between
the two runs I show above!

[DeepBlueDevilFish]

Which package or program did you use to run your simulations Slapdash (if you don't mind me asking) ?

[slapdash]

Originally Posted by DeepBlueDevilFish

Which package or program did you use to run your simulations Slapdash (if you don't mind me asking) ?

I used something called Octave to run the simulations, and gnuplot to plot the graphs.

[slapdash]

Thirtieth bet:

Russian Around (2.05 Kempton)
A Glass In Thyne (2.50 Bangor)
Nabir (3.00 Southwell)
Risk Accessor (4.25 Bangor)

19 point EW Lucky 15. Total stake 570 points.

[slapdash]

Originally Posted by slapdash

Thirtieth bet:

Russian Around (2.05 Kempton) placed (7/2)
A Glass In Thyne (2.50 Bangor) placed (14/1)
Nabir (3.00 Southwell) placed (7/1)
Risk Accessor (4.25 Bangor) won (4/1)

19 point EW Lucky 15. Total stake 570 points.

2093.65 points profit, including 2x odds for one winner.

Starting bank 1000
Current bank 5887.73

Level stakes 1 point EW Lucky 15s:

Bets: 30
Profit/Loss: +555.82 (Win half: -0.41. Place half: +556.24)
Including benefit from 2x bonus: 53.41
Yield: 61.76%