Lucky 15 Suicide Mission

[slapdash]

This is based on my systems in the Systems & Strategy forum.

I'll post occasional EW Lucky 15s. You'll be able to see how my systems
gave the individual selections in my thread in Systems and Strategy. They're
only going to be occasional because I'm not going to force this ... I'll only
post when there are four really suitable selections.

In principle I think it's mad to place a bet including a 4-horse win accumulator
on horses at the kind of prices these will be. Let me stick my neck out ... I
will never have 4 winners. However, all (?) bookmakers who offer Lucky
15s pay double the odds when you have exactly one winner, and I estimate
that's going to be worth about 2 points to me on average on a 1 point EW
Lucky 15, so that will pay for the 4-fold accies. Actually, some independent
bookies offer 3x the odds, but I'll assume 2x here.

For simplicity, I'll always take SP.

I'll be using an aggressive percentage staking plan (this is where the
"suicide mission" part comes in). I'll start with a bank of 1000 points, and
use a unit stake of about 0.5% of my current bank, which makes 15% in
total. This is aggressive, but I have thought about the amount, it's not just
macho bravado. Anyway, staking 15% of your bank on a Lucky 15 seems
the numerologically correct thing to do, even if you think it's financially
suspect. I'll round the stake off to something convenient; I don't want to
get into silly fractions. I'll also keep a record of the level stakes yield ... for
wimps.

I'll stop when I get down below 1 point or up above a million.

OK, first one ...


At the Helm (3.00 Wolverhampton)
Hart of Gold (4.00 Wolverhampton)
Dream Champion (4.20 Catterick)
Gobi King (8.40 Haydock)

5 point EW Lucky 15
150 points staked.

[THE % MAN]

Best of luck with this mate and like you say once you get past doubles you start to play into the bookies hands. These are all come on bets and what a lot of punters don't realise is one loser and thats 8 bets down the pan right away. The bookies I used gave 3 x for 1 winner until being taken over by the tote and that suited me when picking outsiders but not now.
Anyway slapdash knowing you a four timer is likely to appear some time in the furure. % MAN

[kevsul]

Good luck with this slapdash..

Already off to a good start mate

[THE % MAN]

Well I don't think you will be hanging yourself tonight slapdash
Well done mate and hope the 8.40 makes it a nice treble

[slapdash]

Originally Posted by slapdash

At the Helm (3.00 Wolverhampton) lost
Hart of Gold (4.00 Wolverhampton) won 12/1
Dream Champion (4.20 Catterick) won 5/2
Gobi King (8.40 Haydock) lost

5 point EW Lucky 15
150 points staked.

362.75 points returned.

Starting bank 1000
Current bank 1212.75

[RussP]

[Tulenos]

[Jaded]

Some suicide mission!! Nice picks

[slapdash]

Originally Posted by Jaded

Some suicide mission!!

To jump off the top of a tall building, first you have to climb the stairs.

[FleetFanatic]

Originally Posted by slapdash

To jump off the top of a tall building, first you have to climb the stairs.

[slapdash]

Second bet:

Precocious Star (2.10 Pontefract)
Bollin Thomas (2.20 Hexham)
Heather Lad (3.20 Hexham)
Insan Flyer (5.15 Down Royal)

6 point EW Lucky 15. 180 points staked.

[Tank Maestro]

I don't like doing e/w lucky 15 because imo the e/w part is not worth collecting unless they all get placed. I prefer just adding an e/w acca instead this way you can put more on to the win part and also when you are lucky enough to get 4 up you almost win twice as much.

What are your opinions on this?

[THE % MAN]

Originally Posted by Tank Maestro

I don't like doing e/w lucky 15 because imo the e/w part is not worth collecting unless they all get placed. I prefer just adding an e/w acca instead this way you can put more on to the win part and also when you are lucky enough to get 4 up you almost win twice as much.

What are your opinions on this?

Well Tank a good friend of mine does something very similar and what he does is Lucky15, 31, or 63, but no matter which one he chosses or for how much he always has a 10 or 5 pounds EW ROLL UP [if prices warrent it] and as had some very nice touches. He does not back every day but hits about 6 roll ups a year. He had a 1 pound lucky 31 plus 10 pounds ew rollup [stake 51pts] with 3 winners and 2 placed three weeks ago with a return of 1600+pts.The best he's had that I've seen is just short of 5 grand.The down side to this bet is you still have to pick them and all in 1 bet. Like slapdash he knows picking all winners is very unlikely and if picking horses of 5/1+ even more so.If you think you could pick a couple of decent winners and 3 decent price placed horses an EW ALL EW ROLL UP would be a better bet.

[THE % MAN]

Originally Posted by slapdash

Second bet:

Precocious Star (2.10 Pontefract)
Bollin Thomas (2.20 Hexham)
Heather Lad (3.20 Hexham)
Insan Flyer (5.15 Down Royal)

6 point EW Lucky 15. 180 points staked.

1 WINNER AND THE REST PLACED WELL DONE AGAIN MATE

[WorkingForTheEnemy]

an EW ALL EW ROLL UP would be a better bet.

By this do you mean an Equally divided e/w bet?

i.e. Rather than a win acca and place acca, you have an each single on the first with the returns split 0/50 e/w on the next selection.

[slapdash]

Originally Posted by Tank Maestro

I don't like doing e/w lucky 15 because imo the e/w part is not worth collecting unless they all get placed. I prefer just adding an e/w acca instead this way you can put more on to the win part and also when you are lucky enough to get 4 up you almost win twice as much.

What are your opinions on this?

The horses I'm picking are probably a bit different, as I'm specifically looking
for horses where there is good value from the place part of an EW bet. If you
look at my threads in the Systems & Strategy forum, you'll see that most of
my profit has come from the place bets (and I'm actually surprised, based on
my performance last year, that I'm showing any profit at all on the win bets).

So on these occasional Lucky 15s, I expect most of the profit to come from
the place part, and I'll be happy if I do more than break even on the win
part (with a little help from the bonus for one winner, perhaps).

[THE % MAN]

Originally Posted by WorkingForTheEnemy

By this do you mean an Equally divided e/w bet?

i.e. Rather than a win acca and place acca, you have an each single on the first with the returns split 0/50 e/w on the next selection.

Quite right WFTE but no good if you had 4 winners or all 4 placed horses then you would be out of pocket. The ideal solution would be to split the stake 1/2 on win for win place for place and 1/2 on equally divided.
This is a very debatable subject but you have to consider the chances of finding 4 good priced winners and if you did a win and place acc would pay a lot more. If you found 2, or 3 winners plus the rest placing you would be better of Equally divided.If only 1 horse won and the rest placed it would depend on the winners Sp but would favour the Place acc

[slapdash]

Originally Posted by slapdash

Precocious Star (2.10 Pontefract) won 8/1
Bollin Thomas (2.20 Hexham) placed 1/1
Heather Lad (3.20 Hexham) placed 12/1
Insan Flyer (5.15 Down Royal) placed 10/3

6 point EW Lucky 15. 180 points staked.

473.57 point profit, by my reckoning, including the 2x odds bonus for one
winner.

Starting bank 1000
Current bank 1686.32

I'll also keep records based on level stakes 1 point EW Lucky 15s:

Bets: 2
Profit/Loss: 121.48
Including benefit from 2x bonus: 8
Yield: 202.46%

[slapdash]

Third bet:

Elegant Times (1.50 Wolverhampton)
Cunning Pursuit (4.40 Market Rasen)
Cape Sydney (7.45 Newcastle)
Along The Nile (8.20 Newcastle)

8 point EW Lucky 15. 240 points staked.

[THE % MAN]

All the best today and may the bookies be a few quid less of tonight.