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Old 23-11-2008, 19:54   #1 (permalink)
Shrewdie Punter
 
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Default Longshot Kicked De Bucket

Ok peeps. The new bwoy is gunna give it his best shot.

The reasoning behind the method is as follows: Ratings mostly based on how the hoss/hosses have run in their last 3 races e.g Led, Midfield, Back of the field or did not finish are used as the back-bone to much of the system.

Results will be shown using 1 pt level stakes starting with a 400 point bank and using race codes running on turf only including jumps and flat. Bookmakers are not involved because we use longshots and must wait for non runners to be declared. Early prices are not used. Instead all profit and loss will be declared at BETFAIR SP minus 5% commission. I can't be arsed to deduct commission per race as betfair do so I'll deduct commission per winner which will hurt the profit but so what because prices will be much higher than bookies.

We need a large bank because we have losing runs up to 100 and average strike rate is under 10% and much lower on the flat. Expect to lose half of a 400 point bank at some point.

We bet at the off using the live shows from sportinglife to make sure our selections are 7/1 or more and 100/1 or below on the flat that will change to >=18/1 and <=100/1 . We use BFSP regardless of whether it was higher or lower than Bookie Sp. If the sportinglife live shows are not functioning correctly then we just aim at a BFSP of 8 or over.

For those who want to follow with small stakes: If there is more than 1 qualifier per race then we back each with one point.

The main aim is to see if I've backfitted my system to an unreasonable degree. Past results are very favourable and my target is 100 points profit per month on average or to put it into monetary terms at £50 a level throw we are looking for £5k per month or £60k pa.

It's time for the truth: I couldn't give a toss who the trainer or jockey is, what the form is, what the stable whispers are, how bad the ground is or any of that. This is purely mechanical and no emotion should be attached to winning or losing.

I shall endeavour to post everyday just before racing starts. There will be nothing on Sundays coz I can't be arsed. See you tha morra!
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Old 23-11-2008, 20:05   #2 (permalink)
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Default Re: Longshot Kicked De Bucket

www.youtube.com/watch?v=R6lbVLny2Jg
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Old 24-11-2008, 11:49   #3 (permalink)
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Default Re: Longshot Kicked De Bucket

Wow!! What a beautiful day here on the Kent coast. The wind is whistling throught the sail masts!!

Down to business.....

13:10AyrEsquillon
13:10AyrPrince Among Men
13:10AyrHickory Lane
13:20LudlowDown's Folly
13:20LudlowLoch Vic
13:20LudlowSeize
14:25LudlowOpera De Coeur
15:15AyrLongdale
15:15AyrRossin Gold
15:15AyrProsecco
15:15AyrSoul Angel
15:15AyrSpirit of The Mist
15:15AyrPay On
15:15AyrFind Me
15:25LudlowKiller Jim
15:25LudlowFoxriver
15:25LudlowWell Saved


And a little bit of pop culture to lift your spirits:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aG9NAW_NTfM
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Old 24-11-2008, 16:12   #4 (permalink)
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Default Re: Longshot Kicked De Bucket

Todays results:

13:10AyrEsquillonLost
13:20LudlowDown's FollyLost
13:20LudlowLoch VicLost
15:15AyrLongdaleLost
15:15AyrRossin GoldLost
15:15AyrSoul AngelLost
15:15AyrFind MeLost
15:25LudlowKiller JimLost
15:25LudlowFoxriverLost
15:25LudlowWell SavedLost


P&L -10

Some musical fun to go with todays results:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6tiYP4zNMvg

More punishment to follow tomorra..
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Old 25-11-2008, 12:26   #5 (permalink)
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Default Re: Longshot Kicked De Bucket

Ride them white hosses weather again!!

Qualifiers:

13:50SedgefieldViscount Rossini
13:50SedgefieldCadeaux Singer
13:50SedgefieldNevsky Bridge
13:50SedgefieldShade Bonny
14:20SedgefieldWhatcanyasay
14:20SedgefieldFirst Fought
15:00LingfieldGuardian of Truth
15:00LingfieldStradbrook
15:00LingfieldCarson's Spirit
15:00LingfieldGlinton
15:20SedgefieldBlue Rising
15:20SedgefieldMae Moss
15:20SedgefieldNorthern Vic
15:30LingfieldTrigger Guard
15:30LingfieldDevils River


Here is your wake up call:

http://uk.youtube.com/watch?v=1V71MQEUJKY
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Old 25-11-2008, 16:04   #6 (permalink)
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Default Re: Longshot Kicked De Bucket

Results in.

13:50SedgefieldViscount RossiniWon(+7.27)
13:50SedgefieldCadeaux SingerLost
13:50SedgefieldNevsky BridgeLost
14:20SedgefieldWhatcanyasayLost
14:20SedgefieldFirst FoughtLost
15:00LingfieldGuardian of TruthLost
15:00LingfieldCarson's SpiritLost
15:00LingfieldGlintonLost
15:20SedgefieldBlue RisingLost
15:20SedgefieldMae MossLost
15:20SedgefieldNorthern VicLost
15:30LingfieldDevils RiverLost



P&L Running -16.73

And to calm the white hosses:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Gr4FN_DOpSk
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Old 26-11-2008, 12:05   #7 (permalink)
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Default Re: Longshot Kicked De Bucket

For today:

12:50WetherbyArctic Ghost
12:50WetherbyStoneriggs Merc
12:50WetherbyTen Carat
13:40ChepstowShampers
13:50WetherbyNorborne Bandit
13:50WetherbyCantgeton
14:15ChepstowMaktu
14:15ChepstowGala Evening
14:15ChepstowHonour High
14:40KemptonKilcannon Supreme
14:40KemptonCaptain Becket
14:40KemptonMidas Way
14:50ChepstowBenitez
15:15KemptonMassini Sunset
15:45KemptonPanadin
15:45KemptonKashmina
15:45KemptonFrench Leave
15:45KemptonHum The Tune
15:45KemptonTeach To Preach


And some musical motivation for the afternoon: Love this!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9tUp2YgqU_A
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Old 26-11-2008, 16:37   #8 (permalink)
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Default Re: Longshot Kicked De Bucket

A good day overall!

12:50WetherbyArctic Ghost
12:50WetherbyStoneriggs Merc
12:50WetherbyTen Carat
13:40ChepstowShampers
13:50WetherbyNorborne Bandit
13:50WetherbyCantgeton
14:15ChepstowMaktu(+11.49)
14:15ChepstowHonour High
14:40KemptonKilcannon Supreme
14:40KemptonCaptain Becket
14:40KemptonMidas Way(+11.31)
15:15KemptonMassini Sunset
15:45KemptonPanadin
15:45KemptonFrench Leave
15:45KemptonHum The Tune
15:45KemptonTeach To Preach


Just noticed my adding up was 3 points adrift yesterday.

P&L Running -4.92

Art & Music: Cool!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yDFQg0wPuLk
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Old 26-11-2008, 17:14   #9 (permalink)
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Default Re: Longshot Kicked De Bucket

Nice going today mate

Will keep watch of this.
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Old 26-11-2008, 21:59   #10 (permalink)
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Default Re: Longshot Kicked De Bucket

Couple of nice priced winners there mate.Well done.
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Old 27-11-2008, 12:16   #11 (permalink)
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Default Re: Longshot Kicked De Bucket

Hey thanks guys! We tend to go sideways a lot so profit will be in fits and starts. Looking back this month I would say that we are due some decent priced winners sometime in the near future. In fact I had money down at Wolves last night (aw system) on Nou Nou came second by a neck @25/1sp. Betfair sp was in the 60s and you could have had 70s just before the off. Needless to say I took a free bet in running and recovered my stake.

For today:

13:30NewburyHaldibari
13:30NewburyTuskar Rock
13:30NewburySovereign Spirit
13:30NewburyCootehill
14:40NewburyKings Brook
14:40NewburyPortland Bill
14:40NewburyAztec Warrior
14:40NewburyChiaro
14:40NewburyJean Le Poisson
15:15NewburySchiehallion
15:15NewburyForthright
15:15NewburyKerry's Girl
15:25TauntonClifden Boy
15:25TauntonCilla Black
15:25TauntonMr Big
15:35UttoxeterThe Abbots Habit
15:35UttoxeterBlack Mogul
15:55TauntonSangfroid
15:55TauntonBrize Norton
15:55TauntonMiss Ceka


And the afternoons inspiration called "the drifter":

http://uk.youtube.com/watch?v=dYm1Bc...eature=related
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Old 27-11-2008, 16:16   #12 (permalink)
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Default Re: Longshot Kicked De Bucket

Results in:

13:30NewburyHaldibari
13:30NewburyTuskar Rock
13:30NewburySovereign Spirit
13:30NewburyCootehill
14:40NewburyKings Brook
14:40NewburyPortland Bill
14:40NewburyAztec Warrior
14:40NewburyChiaro
14:40NewburyJean Le Poisson
15:15NewburySchiehallion
15:15NewburyForthright
15:25TauntonClifden Boy
15:25TauntonCilla Black
15:35UttoxeterThe Abbots Habit
15:55TauntonSangfroid
15:55TauntonBrize Norton
15:55TauntonMiss Ceka


17 losers and no winners ha ha. A losing run of 22 to take into tomorrow afternoon.

It's deffo not time to do this yet: "YOU SUCK"!

http://uk.youtube.com/watch?v=RCn7Xk_6sb8
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Old 27-11-2008, 16:20   #13 (permalink)
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Default Re: Longshot Kicked De Bucket

Oops forgot to add:

P&L Running -21.92
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Old 28-11-2008, 12:46   #14 (permalink)
Shrewdie Punter
 
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Default Re: Longshot Kicked De Bucket

For today:

13:10MusselburghSnow's Ride
13:10MusselburghTeviot Lass
13:10MusselburghBronze Dancer
13:10MusselburghIndustrial Star
13:10MusselburghAjay
13:10MusselburghThe Ginger Man
13:30NewburyTaipan's Promise
13:30NewburyPressgang
14:05NewburyPocket Aces
14:05NewburyBertie May
14:05NewburyAdroit Approach
14:05NewburyTemoin
14:05NewburyJust Amazing
14:55MusselburghAll For The Cause
15:15NewburyMichael Muck


Great tune:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KRy8N1P1EUI
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Old 28-11-2008, 16:42   #15 (permalink)
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Default Re: Longshot Kicked De Bucket

Another losing day (quite normal).

13:10MusselburghSnow's Ride
13:10MusselburghTeviot Lass
13:10MusselburghBronze Dancer
13:10MusselburghIndustrial Star
13:10MusselburghAjay
13:10MusselburghThe Ginger Man
13:30NewburyTaipan's Promise
14:05NewburyPocket Aces
14:05NewburyBertie May
14:05NewburyAdroit Approach
14:05NewburyTemoin
14:05NewburyJust Amazing


So thats 34 loser in a row now. To put that into perspective 30 or more losers in a row has happened 33 times this year (an average of 3 times a month for the arithmetically challenged). 40 or more in a row has happened 15 times. 50 or more has happened 5 times.

I may not have backed a winner for sometime but I've got my egg already!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sV-BLB0Z9Tw

P&L Running -33.92
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Old 29-11-2008, 11:49   #16 (permalink)
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Default Re: Longshot Kicked De Bucket

For today:

13:00NewburyShouldhavehadthat
13:00NewburySharajan
13:00NewburyDouble Intruder
13:35NewburyThe Wicketkeeper
14:00TowcesterThe Big Canadian
14:30TowcesterOn Spec
14:30TowcesterMontana Gold
14:30TowcesterClassic Chic
14:30TowcesterFullards
14:30TowcesterWee Alfie
14:30TowcesterBarrys Ark
14:40NewburyAlbertas Run
14:40NewburyVerasi
14:40NewburyMadison Du Berlais
14:40NewburyAir Force One
15:05TowcesterMnason
15:15NewburyNikola
15:15NewburyMontgermont
15:15NewburyNew Little Bric
15:45NewburyMaraafeq
15:45NewburyStripe Me Blue
15:45NewburyLuxurix
15:45NewburySquadron


A wall of sound for todays inspiration (great *spaghetti* vid too):

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jV1bRfLHA3A

The reasoning:

Longshot Kicked De Bucket

Last edited by James Bond; 29-11-2008 at 12:21. Reason: Non Runners & Abandonment At Newcastle
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Old 30-11-2008, 01:51   #17 (permalink)
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Default Re: Longshot Kicked De Bucket

Results: Managed to get the winner in the Hennessy Gold Cup at a nice price. Nearly 18/1 higher than Sp!!

NewburySharajan
NewburyDouble Intruder
NewburyThe Wicketkeeper
TowcesterMontana Gold
TowcesterClassic Chic
TowcesterFullards
TowcesterWee Alfie
TowcesterBarrys Ark
NewburyAlbertas Run
NewburyVerasi
NewburyMadison Du Berlais(+ 39.73)
TowcesterMnason
NewburyNikola
NewburyMontgermont
NewburyNew Little Bric
NewburyMaraafeq
NewburyStripe Me Blue


I did mention we were due a biggun.

P&L Running -10.19
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Old 01-12-2008, 13:16   #18 (permalink)
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Default Re: Longshot Kicked De Bucket

For today:

13:50FakenhamRiccardo
13:50FakenhamNessen Dorma
13:50FakenhamGoscar Rock
14:30FolkestoneTarateeno
14:30FolkestoneEnglish Jim
14:30FolkestoneBallyveeney
14:30FolkestoneMikado Melody


And a proper old school classic for the marmite heads:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QRf3EWm5Eow
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Old 01-12-2008, 13:41   #19 (permalink)
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Default Re: Longshot Kicked De Bucket

Interesting idea James and Im interested to see how this works out.

I will watch with interest.

Good luck mate
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Old 01-12-2008, 19:41   #20 (permalink)
Shrewdie Punter
 
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Default Re: Longshot Kicked De Bucket

Hi Stewart thanks for looking in and giving it the thumbs up.

Results:

13:50FakenhamRiccardo
13:50FakenhamNessen Dorma
13:50FakenhamGoscar Rock
14:30FolkestoneEnglish Jim


P&L Running -14.19
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