Interested to hear some opinions

[happygooner]

Not really being familiar with the Adrian Massey ratings I keep hearing and reading about I decided to have a play around this morning with regards to looking at possible ways to lay succesfully in the future.

Sorting through a whole load of filters I finally came up with the following:

	Bets	Wins	Win Strike Rate	Win %Return at Estimated Betfair Odds
All Selections	7664	901	11.8%	84.0%

And unfortunately the stupid data reset itself...either that or I did it accidentally!!!

In any case, although I can't find the exact filters I entered at the moment (was tinkering for ages)...are the above results feasible for a laying system at all?

This is over the last 8 years I should advise.

[Dices]

Sorry but for me it says for the last week that the custom report "is temporarily unavailable". How did you created this report?

[happygooner]

http://old.adrianmassey.com/db1/dbac...?flat=1&rat=54

By going here and tinkering

Really wish I could remember the variables/filters

Surprisingly enough the numer of runners didn't seem to matter. Max odds were 10/1, ratings no higher than 599 I think...

Included the fave, 2nd fave & 3rd fave and filtered out all runners who were in the top 4 clear favourites.

Beyond that i'm struggling to recreate the exact I had and the strike rate was best/worst by far that I have come across before or since

[happygooner]

Ah, I went to the old site. Presumably this would still give me a very good idea on how viable something is.

[happygooner]

Nobody have any opinion on this at all?

Also, just tried to do a similar thing for the National Hunt Races as these were all flats.

Seems to be, and i'm guessing it would be the case, that what works for one does not necessarily work for the other?

[happygooner]

Would it make more sense to post my question in another thread?

I almost got to what I had by simply laying anything outside the top 5 ratings wise and choosing only ratings under 599.

Lay any of the top 3 faves in a race providing odds under 11.0 and the horse is aged 4+

In flats for the last 8 years this would have given an 87.1% strike rate over 8000 races.

Filtering out unwanted data to find a low strike rate for wins seems more complicated in jumps.

Anything in particular I should look for?

[happygooner]

Well by the looks of it nobody is in the slightest bit interested...however I finalised the figures i'm going to work with and started tracking today.

A most satisfactory start although i'm not prepared to put it out there yet as everything i've done so far has been doomed to failure...should it prove longterm profitable it'll be up in lights

[Danny Cash]

Hi mate, I think that 84% is still a little too high. Consider you have to pay a commission on your winnings through the exchanges. If you can get it nearer to 75% it's worth tracking in my opinion.

Regards

Danny

[happygooner]

Originally Posted by Danny Cash

Hi mate, I think that 84% is still a little too high. Consider you have to pay a commission on your winnings through the exchanges. If you can get it nearer to 75% it's worth tracking in my opinion.

Regards

Danny

Hi Danny

Thanks for responding on this. Since I posted the thread I have been looking at various ways of doing this and a while ago came across a site called horseracebase

Although there is no ROI%, over 24580 bets since 2003 I can get -4784.54 from 1 unit bets.

Strike rate 88.95% between odds on and up to 10/1 (14's max I guess)

What do you think of the potential here?

Thanks for your donkeys by the way. Laid todays to place

[Danny Cash]

Hi mate, those figures look ok but I'd be wary if they don't take into account Betfair prices when laying. The great thing about Massey's reports is you have the option to look at a worst case scenario. Not sure this site of yours allows you to do that.
Also we have to be sure that these trends will continue to happen. Sometimes this is not the case lol!!

Good luck with your system, if you want to discuss anything in finer detail let me know as I've spent many years tinkering with stuff like this -

Danny

[happygooner]

Originally Posted by Danny Cash

Hi mate, those figures look ok but I'd be wary if they don't take into account Betfair prices when laying. The great thing about Massey's reports is you have the option to look at a worst case scenario. Not sure this site of yours allows you to do that.
Also we have to be sure that these trends will continue to happen. Sometimes this is not the case lol!!

Good luck with your system, if you want to discuss anything in finer detail let me know as I've spent many years tinkering with stuff like this -

Danny

Cheers

Perhaps I should let you know the filters being applied and see what you think.

[dudeman99]

I'm interested in a system that offers 900 points profit per year!

It's got a good strike rate too so you can possibly use some sort of progressive staking to enhance your winnings.

I have no idea how to use the Massey site so I can't be of any use there. If you happen to come across the filters again I would be more than interested to know about them!

[klaymore79]

I have been farting about with the Massey site for the past few weeks, on and off, trying to find something to fit into Maria's kind of staking plan. The old ratings are no longer there, and the custom reports don't have filters for ratings as well as anything else.

Still looking for something that will work, if I can find something that kinda works I may take the ratings into account as well, see if that helps.