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Old 31-10-2007, 16:59   #1 (permalink)
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dollar Horse Racing - Favourites to LAY...

I have been playing around with the Adrian Massey site and have come up with a favourite laying system.

It is a fairly simple system, however I won't be going in to much detail yet, other than the selections should be clear favourites and there will be 8+ runners, also the odds can range from 1.50 - 9.0. There should be a LOT of selections and this is backtested for 7 years and has shown a profit.

I am going to start off with an imaginary bank of 100 points and will be starting off looking to lay to win 2% of the bank, which is 2 points (commission will be taken off).

I haven't tried a laying system before and I guess this could get messy, lets see how we get on

This evenings lays:

Kempton

1850 - Sassy Gal - 2.90
1920 - Forbidden - 5.30
2050 - Spice Gadens - 2.32
2120 - Ndola - 3.45

Last edited by aldric; 02-12-2007 at 14:57. Reason: To enter the correct times of races..... No edits for future selections.
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Old 31-10-2007, 22:53   #2 (permalink)
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Default Re: Horse Racing - Favourites to LAY

Quote:
Originally Posted by aldric View Post
This evenings lays:

Kempton

1850 - Sassy Gal - 2.90 -
1920 - Forbidden - 5.30 -
2050 - Spice Gadens - 2.32 -
2120 - Ndola - 3.45 -
Todays P/L: +1.90
Bank: 101.90

(Could this thread get moved to at the races forum, might get some interest of some sorts there )
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Old 01-11-2007, 11:51   #3 (permalink)
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Default Re: Horse Racing - Favourites to LAY

Todays lays:

Lingfield1310 Anne of Kiev3.65
Lingfield1340 Autumn Blades4.30
Lingfield1440 Fidelia4.80
Lingfield1510 Market Forces3.55
Lingfield1540 Capricorn Run3.05
Lingfield1610 Prince Valentine6.00
Wolverhampton1920 Snow Bunting3.70
Wolverhampton1950 Wadnagin4.30
Wolverhampton2050 Lobengula2.72
Wolverhampton2120 CragganmoreCreek 3.75


I am sure better odds could be achieved and if they drift and are no longer clear favourites they shouldn't be lays. However, I can't be at my computer all day so the above will count as lays for this system.
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Old 02-11-2007, 14:24   #4 (permalink)
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Default Re: Horse Racing - Favourites to LAY

I will update yesterdays results shortly, unfortunately I had a nightmare at work yesterday and worked 16 hours straight

I will be adding further selections but todays first is:

Newmarket1430 Watchful2.06
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Old 02-11-2007, 14:36   #5 (permalink)
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Default Re: Horse Racing - Favourites to LAY

Todays complete list:

Newmarket1430Watchful2.06
Uttox1440Ouzbek1.94
Uttox1515Heres johnny3.20
Newmarket1540Double Banded3.30
Uttox1550Mighty Moose4.10
Newmarket1610Sea of the Sun4.90
Wolverhampton1955Sweet Sara3.85
Wolverhampton2025Prince Noel3.70
Wolverhampton2055Pelham Crescent5.00
Wolverhampton2120Time to regret2.98


The prices are are taken from betfair and are readily available at the time of posting.
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Old 02-11-2007, 15:06   #6 (permalink)
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Default Re: Horse Racing - Favourites to LAY

Results so far:

No.CourseTimeHorseBetfairSPResultPos.P/LBank 100
1Kempton1850Sassy Gal2.902.50lost1-3.80£96.20
2Kempton1920Forbidden5.306.00won31.90£98.10
3Kempton2050Spice Gardens2.322.40won91.90£100.00
4Kempton2120Ndola3.452.88won61.90£101.90
5Lingfield1310Anne of Kiev3.653.25won21.90£103.80
6Lingfield1340Autumn Blades4.303.75won81.90£105.70
7Lingfield1440Fidelia4.805.00won21.90£107.60
8Lingfield1510Market Forces3.553.00won21.90£109.50
9Lingfield1540Capricorn Run3.053.00lost1-4.00£105.50
10Lingfield1610Prince Valentine6.007.00won61.90£107.40
11Wolverhampton1920Snow Bunting3.703.75won41.90£109.30
12Wolverhampton1950Wadnagin4.305.00won61.90£111.20
13Wolverhampton2050Lobengula2.723.00lost1-4.00£107.20
14Wolverhampton2120Cragganmore Creek3.753.75won51.90£109.10


Strike rate: 78.57%
P/L: +9.10 pts.

Going well so far, although a run of bad results can quickly change that.
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Old 02-11-2007, 18:18   #7 (permalink)
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Default Re: Horse Racing - Favourites to LAY

Always confusing when a lay wins or doesn't if you get what I mean.
Good luck with this, should have a decent strike rate at least.
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Old 03-11-2007, 11:12   #8 (permalink)
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Default Re: Horse Racing - Favourites to LAY

Quote:
Originally Posted by mowgli77 View Post
Always confusing when a lay wins or doesn't if you get what I mean.
Good luck with this, should have a decent strike rate at least.
Yep, Certainly know what you mean!! Hopefully the way I have laid out the results makes it a bit clearer

I anticipate the strike rate will drop to the low end of 70%... but that should still make me a profit over time.
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Old 03-11-2007, 11:14   #9 (permalink)
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Default Re: Horse Racing - Favourites to LAY

Quote:
Originally Posted by aldric View Post
Going well so far, although a run of bad results can quickly change that.
I jinxed myself yesterday... results:

15Newmarket1430Watchful2.061.91won41.90£111.46
16Uttox1440Ouzbek1.941.73lost1-1.88£109.58
17Uttox1515Heres johnny3.203.75lost1-4.40£105.18
18Newmarket1540Double Banded3.303.00lost1-4.60£100.58
19Uttox1550Mighty Moose4.103.50lost1-6.20£94.38
20Newmarket1610Sea of the Sun4.903.50won61.90£96.28
21Wolverhampton1955Sweet Sara3.852.88won51.90£98.18
22Wolverhampton2025Prince Noel3.702.75won31.90£100.08
23Wolverhampton2055Pelham Crescent5.005.00won31.90£101.98
24Wolverhampton2120Time to regret2.982.63lost1-3.96£98.02


I also made a mistake, Here's Johnny should not have been a selection, but I will leave it in and not make that mistake again in the future.
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Old 03-11-2007, 11:31   #10 (permalink)
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Default Re: Horse Racing - Favourites to LAY

Saturdays lays:

25Newmarket1200Almoutezah3.75
26Newmarket1230Infallible7.00
27Ayr1255Roman Legion2.66
28Newmarket1335The Fifth Member6.60
29Newmarket1405Queen of Naples2.62
30Ayr1430Montrachet3.45
31Ayr1505Mystical Ayr4.80
32Newmarket1515Danehillsundance7.20
33Ayr1615Camolin5.60
34Kempton1850Rebellious Spirit3.30
35Kempton2050Pendulam Star3.75
36Kempton2120Vanadium2.86


A couple of longer prices for favourites, but still within the system limits... I might add some more filters which will reduce the selections, however I will see how this goes for a few while first.
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Old 04-11-2007, 11:51   #11 (permalink)
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Default Re: Horse Racing - Favourites to LAY

Quote:
Originally Posted by aldric View Post
Saturdays lays:

25Newmarket1200Almoutezah3.75
26Newmarket1230Infallible7.00
27Ayr1255Roman Legion2.66
28Newmarket1335The Fifth Member6.60
29Newmarket1405Queen of Naples2.62
30Ayr1430Montrachet3.45
31Ayr1505Mystical Ayr4.80
32Newmarket1515Danehillsundance7.20
33Ayr1615Camolin5.60
34Kempton1850Rebellious Spirit3.30
35Kempton2050Pendulam Star3.75
36Kempton2120Vanadium2.86


A couple of longer prices for favourites, but still within the system limits... I might add some more filters which will reduce the selections, however I will see how this goes for a few while first.
Saturdays Results:
No.CourseTimeHorseBetfairSPResultPos.P/LBank 100

25Newmarket1200Almoutezah3.753.75won81.90£99.92
26Newmarket1230Infallible7.006.50lost1-12.00£87.92
27Ayr1255Roman Legion2.663.50won31.90£89.82
28Newmarket1335The Fifth Member6.606.50won81.90£91.72
29Newmarket1405Queen of Naples2.622.25won31.90£93.62
30Ayr1430Montrachet3.453.00won61.90£95.52
31Ayr1505Mystical Ayr4.805.00won61.90£97.42
32Newmarket1515Danehillsundance7.207.00won111.90£99.32
33Ayr1615Camolin5.603.00won81.90£101.22
34Kempton1850Rebellious Spirit3.302.75won61.90£103.12
35Kempton2050Pendulam Star3.752.88won21.90£105.02
36Kempton2120Vanadium2.861.91won41.90£106.92


Good day, shame about the 7.00 winner.. but 11/12 is fantastic!!
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Old 04-11-2007, 12:03   #12 (permalink)
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Default Re: Horse Racing - Favourites to LAY

Not very many selections today:

No.CourseTimeHorseBetfair

37Wolverhampton1250Marleybow1.98
38Lingfield1300Monashee rock2.90
39Lingfield1330Black Dahlia4.50
40Wolverhampton1415Magical Music5.00
41Carlise1455Tiger King5.80
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Old 05-11-2007, 09:27   #13 (permalink)
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Default Re: Horse Racing - Favourites to LAY

Quote:
Originally Posted by aldric View Post
Not very many selections today:

No.CourseTimeHorseBetfair

37Wolverhampton1250Marleybow1.98
38Lingfield1300Monashee rock2.90
39Lingfield1330Black Dahlia4.50
40Wolverhampton1415Magical Music5.00
41Carlise1455Tiger King5.80
No.CourseTimeHorseBetfairSPResultPos.P/LBank 100

37Wolverhampton1250Marleybow1.981.91lost1-1.96£104.96
38Lingfield1300Monashee rock2.902.38won21.90£106.86
39Lingfield1330Black Dahlia4.504.33won81.90£108.76
40Wolverhampton1415Magical Music5.005.00won51.90£110.66
41Carlise1455Tiger King5.804.50won31.90£112.56


Strike Rate: 75.6%
Profit: 12.56 pts
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Old 05-11-2007, 12:59   #14 (permalink)
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Default Re: Horse Racing - Favourites to LAY

Unfortunately work has got in the way, no more selections after today until Saturday.

Last edited by aldric; 05-11-2007 at 13:12.
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Old 05-11-2007, 13:10   #15 (permalink)
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Default Re: Horse Racing - Favourites to LAY

I managed to get time for todays selections, strangely only 2:

No.CourseTimeHorseBetfair

42Wolverhampton1450E Major3.55
43Wolverhampton1520Magroom5.10
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Old 05-11-2007, 16:02   #16 (permalink)
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Default Re: Horse Racing - Favourites to LAY

Quote:
Originally Posted by aldric View Post
I managed to get time for todays selections, strangely only 2:

No.CourseTimeHorseBetfair

42Wolverhampton1450E Major3.55
43Wolverhampton1520Magroom5.10
Result:

No.CourseTimeHorseBetfairSPResultPos.P/LBank 100

42Wolverhampton1450E Major3.553.01won31.90£114.46
43Wolverhampton1520Magroom5.105.00won21.90£116.36


Profit +16.36 pts
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Old 08-11-2007, 17:24   #17 (permalink)
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Default Re: Horse Racing - Favourites to LAY

An evening meeting so had some time for this:

No.CourseTimeHorseBetfair

44Wolverhampton1950Chrystal Venture4.10
45Wolverhampton2050Royal Fantasy3.45
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Old 08-11-2007, 21:39   #18 (permalink)
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Default Re: Horse Racing - Favourites to LAY

Good luck with this aldric, stick with it as i think it's a winner dont want to tread on your toe's or anything like that but over at Massey's i took out novice hurdles and novice chases and found this increased profit by a couple of %
hope this helps and once again all the best,
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Old 08-11-2007, 21:49   #19 (permalink)
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Default Re: Horse Racing - Favourites to LAY

Quote:
Originally Posted by kevan View Post
Good luck with this aldric, stick with it as i think it's a winner dont want to tread on your toe's or anything like that but over at Massey's i took out novice hurdles and novice chases and found this increased profit by a couple of %
hope this helps and once again all the best,
Thanks, it will be interesting to see how it develops thats for sure!! Its also good to see someone taking an interest in what I am trying to do.

Novice chases are 1 of 3 types of race I have also excluded from the system, GL if you decide to do something similar.

Cheers,
Aldric
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Old 08-11-2007, 21:50   #20 (permalink)
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Default Re: Horse Racing - Favourites to LAY

Quote:
Originally Posted by aldric View Post
An evening meeting so had some time for this:

No.CourseTimeHorseBetfair

44Wolverhampton1950Chrystal Venture4.10
45Wolverhampton2050Royal Fantasy3.45
No.CourseTimeHorseBetfairSPResultPos.P/LBank 100

44Wolverhampton1950Chrystal Venture4.103.75lost1-6.20£110.16
45Wolverhampton2050Royal Fantasy3.452.25won51.90£112.06


Chrystal Venture won in a photo, can't win them all unfortunately.
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