Horse Racing - Favourites to LAY...

[aldric]

I have been playing around with the Adrian Massey site and have come up with a favourite laying system.

It is a fairly simple system, however I won't be going in to much detail yet, other than the selections should be clear favourites and there will be 8+ runners, also the odds can range from 1.50 - 9.0. There should be a LOT of selections and this is backtested for 7 years and has shown a profit.

I am going to start off with an imaginary bank of 100 points and will be starting off looking to lay to win 2% of the bank, which is 2 points (commission will be taken off).

I haven't tried a laying system before and I guess this could get messy, lets see how we get on

This evenings lays:

Kempton

1850 - Sassy Gal - 2.90
1920 - Forbidden - 5.30
2050 - Spice Gadens - 2.32
2120 - Ndola - 3.45

[aldric]

Originally Posted by aldric

This evenings lays:

Kempton

1850 - Sassy Gal - 2.90 -
1920 - Forbidden - 5.30 -
2050 - Spice Gadens - 2.32 -
2120 - Ndola - 3.45 -

Todays P/L: +1.90
Bank: 101.90

(Could this thread get moved to at the races forum, might get some interest of some sorts there )

[aldric]

Todays lays:

Lingfield	1310	Anne of Kiev	3.65
Lingfield	1340	Autumn Blades	4.30
Lingfield	1440	Fidelia	4.80
Lingfield	1510	Market Forces	3.55
Lingfield	1540	Capricorn Run	3.05
Lingfield	1610	Prince Valentine	6.00
Wolverhampton	1920	Snow Bunting	3.70
Wolverhampton	1950	Wadnagin	4.30
Wolverhampton	2050	Lobengula	2.72
Wolverhampton	2120	CragganmoreCreek	3.75

I am sure better odds could be achieved and if they drift and are no longer clear favourites they shouldn't be lays. However, I can't be at my computer all day so the above will count as lays for this system.

[aldric]

I will update yesterdays results shortly, unfortunately I had a nightmare at work yesterday and worked 16 hours straight

I will be adding further selections but todays first is:

Newmarket

1430

Watchful

2.06

[aldric]

Todays complete list:

Newmarket	1430	Watchful	2.06
Uttox	1440	Ouzbek	1.94
Uttox	1515	Heres johnny	3.20
Newmarket	1540	Double Banded	3.30
Uttox	1550	Mighty Moose	4.10
Newmarket	1610	Sea of the Sun	4.90
Wolverhampton	1955	Sweet Sara	3.85
Wolverhampton	2025	Prince Noel	3.70
Wolverhampton	2055	Pelham Crescent	5.00
Wolverhampton	2120	Time to regret	2.98

The prices are are taken from betfair and are readily available at the time of posting.

[aldric]

Results so far:

No.	Course	Time	Horse	Betfair	SP	Result	Pos.	P/L	Bank 100
1	Kempton	1850	Sassy Gal	2.90	2.50	lost	1	-3.80	£96.20
2	Kempton	1920	Forbidden	5.30	6.00	won	3	1.90	£98.10
3	Kempton	2050	Spice Gardens	2.32	2.40	won	9	1.90	£100.00
4	Kempton	2120	Ndola	3.45	2.88	won	6	1.90	£101.90
5	Lingfield	1310	Anne of Kiev	3.65	3.25	won	2	1.90	£103.80
6	Lingfield	1340	Autumn Blades	4.30	3.75	won	8	1.90	£105.70
7	Lingfield	1440	Fidelia	4.80	5.00	won	2	1.90	£107.60
8	Lingfield	1510	Market Forces	3.55	3.00	won	2	1.90	£109.50
9	Lingfield	1540	Capricorn Run	3.05	3.00	lost	1	-4.00	£105.50
10	Lingfield	1610	Prince Valentine	6.00	7.00	won	6	1.90	£107.40
11	Wolverhampton	1920	Snow Bunting	3.70	3.75	won	4	1.90	£109.30
12	Wolverhampton	1950	Wadnagin	4.30	5.00	won	6	1.90	£111.20
13	Wolverhampton	2050	Lobengula	2.72	3.00	lost	1	-4.00	£107.20
14	Wolverhampton	2120	Cragganmore Creek	3.75	3.75	won	5	1.90	£109.10

Strike rate: 78.57%
P/L: +9.10 pts.

Going well so far, although a run of bad results can quickly change that.

[mowgli77]

Always confusing when a lay wins or doesn't if you get what I mean.
Good luck with this, should have a decent strike rate at least.

[aldric]

Originally Posted by mowgli77

Always confusing when a lay wins or doesn't if you get what I mean.
Good luck with this, should have a decent strike rate at least.

Yep, Certainly know what you mean!! Hopefully the way I have laid out the results makes it a bit clearer

I anticipate the strike rate will drop to the low end of 70%... but that should still make me a profit over time.

[aldric]

Originally Posted by aldric

Going well so far, although a run of bad results can quickly change that.

I jinxed myself yesterday... results:

15	Newmarket	1430	Watchful	2.06	1.91	won	4	1.90	£111.46
16	Uttox	1440	Ouzbek	1.94	1.73	lost	1	-1.88	£109.58
17	Uttox	1515	Heres johnny	3.20	3.75	lost	1	-4.40	£105.18
18	Newmarket	1540	Double Banded	3.30	3.00	lost	1	-4.60	£100.58
19	Uttox	1550	Mighty Moose	4.10	3.50	lost	1	-6.20	£94.38
20	Newmarket	1610	Sea of the Sun	4.90	3.50	won	6	1.90	£96.28
21	Wolverhampton	1955	Sweet Sara	3.85	2.88	won	5	1.90	£98.18
22	Wolverhampton	2025	Prince Noel	3.70	2.75	won	3	1.90	£100.08
23	Wolverhampton	2055	Pelham Crescent	5.00	5.00	won	3	1.90	£101.98
24	Wolverhampton	2120	Time to regret	2.98	2.63	lost	1	-3.96	£98.02

I also made a mistake, Here's Johnny should not have been a selection, but I will leave it in and not make that mistake again in the future.

[aldric]

Saturdays lays:

25	Newmarket	1200	Almoutezah	3.75
26	Newmarket	1230	Infallible	7.00
27	Ayr	1255	Roman Legion	2.66
28	Newmarket	1335	The Fifth Member	6.60
29	Newmarket	1405	Queen of Naples	2.62
30	Ayr	1430	Montrachet	3.45
31	Ayr	1505	Mystical Ayr	4.80
32	Newmarket	1515	Danehillsundance	7.20
33	Ayr	1615	Camolin	5.60
34	Kempton	1850	Rebellious Spirit	3.30
35	Kempton	2050	Pendulam Star	3.75
36	Kempton	2120	Vanadium	2.86

A couple of longer prices for favourites, but still within the system limits... I might add some more filters which will reduce the selections, however I will see how this goes for a few while first.

[aldric]

Originally Posted by aldric

Saturdays lays:



A couple of longer prices for favourites, but still within the system limits... I might add some more filters which will reduce the selections, however I will see how this goes for a few while first.

Saturdays Results:

No.

Course

Time

Horse

Betfair

SP

Result

Pos.

P/L

Bank 100

25	Newmarket	1200	Almoutezah	3.75	3.75	won	8	1.90	£99.92
26	Newmarket	1230	Infallible	7.00	6.50	lost	1	-12.00	£87.92
27	Ayr	1255	Roman Legion	2.66	3.50	won	3	1.90	£89.82
28	Newmarket	1335	The Fifth Member	6.60	6.50	won	8	1.90	£91.72
29	Newmarket	1405	Queen of Naples	2.62	2.25	won	3	1.90	£93.62
30	Ayr	1430	Montrachet	3.45	3.00	won	6	1.90	£95.52
31	Ayr	1505	Mystical Ayr	4.80	5.00	won	6	1.90	£97.42
32	Newmarket	1515	Danehillsundance	7.20	7.00	won	11	1.90	£99.32
33	Ayr	1615	Camolin	5.60	3.00	won	8	1.90	£101.22
34	Kempton	1850	Rebellious Spirit	3.30	2.75	won	6	1.90	£103.12
35	Kempton	2050	Pendulam Star	3.75	2.88	won	2	1.90	£105.02
36	Kempton	2120	Vanadium	2.86	1.91	won	4	1.90	£106.92

Good day, shame about the 7.00 winner.. but 11/12 is fantastic!!

[aldric]

Not very many selections today:

No.

Course

Time

Horse

Betfair

37	Wolverhampton	1250	Marleybow	1.98
38	Lingfield	1300	Monashee rock	2.90
39	Lingfield	1330	Black Dahlia	4.50
40	Wolverhampton	1415	Magical Music	5.00
41	Carlise	1455	Tiger King	5.80

[aldric]

Originally Posted by aldric

Not very many selections today:

No.

Course

Time

Horse

Betfair

SP

Result

Pos.

P/L

Bank 100

37	Wolverhampton	1250	Marleybow	1.98	1.91	lost	1	-1.96	£104.96
38	Lingfield	1300	Monashee rock	2.90	2.38	won	2	1.90	£106.86
39	Lingfield	1330	Black Dahlia	4.50	4.33	won	8	1.90	£108.76
40	Wolverhampton	1415	Magical Music	5.00	5.00	won	5	1.90	£110.66
41	Carlise	1455	Tiger King	5.80	4.50	won	3	1.90	£112.56

Strike Rate: 75.6%
Profit: 12.56 pts

[aldric]

Unfortunately work has got in the way, no more selections after today until Saturday.

[aldric]

I managed to get time for todays selections, strangely only 2:

No.

Course

Time

Horse

Betfair

42	Wolverhampton	1450	E Major	3.55
43	Wolverhampton	1520	Magroom	5.10

[aldric]

Originally Posted by aldric

I managed to get time for todays selections, strangely only 2:

Result:

No.

Course

Time

Horse

Betfair

SP

Result

Pos.

P/L

Bank 100

42	Wolverhampton	1450	E Major	3.55	3.01	won	3	1.90	£114.46
43	Wolverhampton	1520	Magroom	5.10	5.00	won	2	1.90	£116.36

Profit +16.36 pts

[aldric]

An evening meeting so had some time for this:

No.

Course

Time

Horse

Betfair

44	Wolverhampton	1950	Chrystal Venture	4.10
45	Wolverhampton	2050	Royal Fantasy	3.45

[kevan]

Good luck with this aldric, stick with it as i think it's a winner dont want to tread on your toe's or anything like that but over at Massey's i took out novice hurdles and novice chases and found this increased profit by a couple of %
hope this helps and once again all the best,

[aldric]

Originally Posted by kevan

Good luck with this aldric, stick with it as i think it's a winner dont want to tread on your toe's or anything like that but over at Massey's i took out novice hurdles and novice chases and found this increased profit by a couple of %
hope this helps and once again all the best,

Thanks, it will be interesting to see how it develops thats for sure!! Its also good to see someone taking an interest in what I am trying to do.

Novice chases are 1 of 3 types of race I have also excluded from the system, GL if you decide to do something similar.

Cheers,
Aldric

[aldric]

Originally Posted by aldric

An evening meeting so had some time for this:

No.

Course

Time

Horse

Betfair

SP

Result

Pos.

P/L

Bank 100

44	Wolverhampton	1950	Chrystal Venture	4.10	3.75	lost	1	-6.20	£110.16
45	Wolverhampton	2050	Royal Fantasy	3.45	2.25	won	5	1.90	£112.06

Chrystal Venture won in a photo, can't win them all unfortunately.