Handicap LTO winners

[WorkingForTheEnemy]

This is a system I was told by one of my punters at work. Ive been half tracking it and it definatly throws up a few winners so I thought Id start to track it here.

Its simple and straight foward.

Handicaps races only. Starting from the bottom , find the lowest weighted horse that won last time out. This is the selection. If no horse won lto then no selection.

Today(not including Kempton) would have created 14 bets with the following results.

6 winners @ 10/1, 7/1, 11/1, 9/2, 8/1 and 5/1.
2 places @ 28/1 and 7/1.

7/1 winner was Comply or Die. If you went with the 2nd lowest weighted LTO winner you'd have King Johns Castle and have found the forecast!

Im going to record two banks. One with 1pt win singles and one with 0.5pt e/w singles.

Any previous encounters with this system, ways of improvement and any other input, more than welcome.

[WorkingForTheEnemy]

Sun 6th April

2.30 Hex - Reckless Venture RPF:EVS
3.00 Hex - Shulmin RPF:5/1
3.30 Hex - Topaz Lady RPF:2/1

3.50 MR - Silver Seeker RPF:11/2
4.20 MR - Cash On Friday RPF:3/1

2.10 Sou - Cleverality RPF:5/2
2.40 Sou - Red Scally RPF:9/1
4.40 Sou - Wizards Dust RPF:11/2

[welshman 2005]

sounds great .
is there anyway of backtesting it

[welshman 2005]

kempton
7.50 - tiegs (stone last)
8.50 - gallic charm (my best bet of the day ) nowhere

[Guy Fawkes]

Very interesting, good luck with it.

[WorkingForTheEnemy]

Sun 6th April

2.30 Hex - Reckless Venture - ABANDONED
3.00 Hex - Shulmin - ABANDONED
3.30 Hex - Topaz Lady - ABANDONED

3.50 MR - Silver Seeker - UP
4.20 MR - Cash On Friday - UP

2.10 Sou - Cleverality - FELL
2.40 Sou - Red Scally - NR
4.40 Sou - Wizards Dust - 3rd 11/2

Another system hit by the PL curse on its debut. Only the one place today. Non-runners wont be counted in stats for the banks.

Win Bank
Bets:4
Wins:0
Strikerate:
Staked:4pts
Returns:0pts
P/L:-4pts
Yield:-100%

EW Bank
Bets:4
Places:1
Strikerate:25%
Staked:4pts
Returns:1.19pts
Profit:-2.81pts
Yield:-70.25%

[TheRat]

Sounds interesting though mate
Will keep an eye on it

all the best with it

[WorkingForTheEnemy]

Monday 7th April

4.00 Kel - Lambrini Legend
4.30 Kel - Primus Inter Pares
5.00 Kel - Stravaigin

3.10 Kem - Warming Up
4.10 Kem - Fade To Grey
4.40 Kem - My Shadow
5.10 Kem - Straight Face

3.20 Plu - Joli Classical
4.20 Plu - Pacco
4.50 Plu - Amoreigh

[WorkingForTheEnemy]

Monday 7th April

4.00 Kel - Lambrini Legend - UP
4.30 Kel - Primus Inter Pares - UP
5.00 Kel - Stravaigin - NR

3.10 Kem - Warming Up - UP
4.10 Kem - Fade To Grey - UP
4.40 Kem - My Shadow - 1st 13/8
5.10 Kem - Straight Face - 1st 15/8

3.20 Plu - Joli Classical - 3rd 4/1
4.20 Plu - Pacco - 1st 7/2
4.50 Plu - Amoreigh - 3rd 9/4

Better but still not a great day.

Win Bank
Bets:13
Wins:3
Strikerate:23.08%
Staked:13pts
Returns:10.01pts
P/L:-2.99pts
Yield:-23.00%

EW Bank
Bets:13
Places:6
Strikerate:46.15%
Staked:13pts
Returns:10.02pts
Profit:-2.98pts
Yield:-22.92%

[Pot rice]

Looks like a nice tidy system you have here. A small profit on the day yesterday so hopefully onwards and upwards.

I'll certainly be watching on with interest. Best of luck.

[WorkingForTheEnemy]

Tuesday 8th April

2.30 Sou - Bahamarama
3.00 Sou - Montemayorprincess
4.00 Sou - Playtotheaudience
4.30 Sou - Tom's Laughter
5.00 Sou - Royal Audition

3.10 Lin - Oat Cuisine
3.40 Lin - Duke Of Milan
4.40 Lin - Kings Ransom

3.50 Sed - Shulmin
4.20 Sed - Izzykeen

[tezmac]

Sounds interesting,sometimes the simplest ones are the best.
Best of the luck.
Cheers
Terry.

[WorkingForTheEnemy]

Tuesday 8th April

2.30 Sou - Bahamarama - UP
3.00 Sou - Montemayorprincess - UP
4.00 Sou - Playtotheaudience - UP
4.30 Sou - Tom's Laughter - UP
5.00 Sou - Royal Audition - UP

3.10 Lin - Oat Cuisine - UP
3.40 Lin - Duke Of Milan - 3rd 9/4
4.40 Lin - Kings Ransom - UP

3.50 Sed - Shulmin - 1st 13/2
4.20 Sed - Izzykeen - UP

Another quiet day.

Win Bank
Bets:23
Wins:4
Strikerate:17.39%
Staked:23pts
Returns:17.51pts
P/L:-5.49pts
Yield:-23.87%

EW Bank
Bets:23
Places:8
Strikerate:34.78%
Staked:23pts
Returns:15.75pts
Profit:-7.25pts
Yield:-31.52%

[WorkingForTheEnemy]

Wednesday 9th April

3.40 Bat - Classic Blue
4.10 Bat - King's Fable

2.30 Tow - Monash Lad
3.00 Tow - The Walnut Tree
3.30 Tow - Wotchalike

7.20 Kem - Lowry's Art
8.20 Kem - Garafena

[WorkingForTheEnemy]

Wednesday 9th April

3.40 Bat - Classic Blue - NR
4.10 Bat - King's Fable - NR

2.30 Tow - Monash Lad - UP
3.00 Tow - The Walnut Tree - UP
3.30 Tow - Wotchalike - 2nd 11/4

7.20 Kem - Lowry's Art - UP
8.20 Kem - Garafena - UP

This was producing winners - promise!

Win Bank
Bets:28
Wins:4
Strikerate:14.29%
Staked:28pts
Returns:17.51pts
P/L:-10.49pts
Yield:-37.46%

EW Bank
Bets:28
Places:9
Strikerate:32.14%
Staked:28pts
Returns:16.59pts
Profit:-11.41pts
Yield:-40.75%

[WorkingForTheEnemy]

I havnt really got time to use them today but there's two factors Im going to start tracking that I hope may help. As the system is based on horses that won being underestimated by the handicapper I think this might help.

1) Checking to see if the horse has changed grade. They might still be lower in the weights as theyve gone up a grade.

2) Position in the field (weight-wise). They may be the lowest weight bearing LTO winner but this doesnt help if they're still top weight by a stone. Im thinking the SR may improve when they're still reletivly lightly weighted compared to the rest of todays field.

After today I will still include all selections but will note the above and see if it makes any difference.

Thursday 10th April

2.15 Car - Royal Mackintosh
4.30 Car - Stravaigan

3.15 Fol - Golden Desert
4.25 Fol - Etoile D'Or
5.00 Fol - Street Life

4.40 Fon - Cleymor House

3.40 Tow - Read All About It
4.15 Tow - Boris The Blade

6.50 Kem -Siena Star
7.50 Kem - Your Pleasure
9.20 Kem - Miss Marauder

[welshman 2005]

added my own filters to your picks.
and so far it's 2/2, todays pick

2.15 Car - Royal Mackintosh

.

4/1 .

will let you know what my filters are after, a months testing.
if its profitable, dont mind sharing it. to rob the bookies satchels

[Marlin]

Good luck with this. It looks an interesting system and it is doesn’t take long to find any qualifiers.

[WorkingForTheEnemy]

Thursday 10th April

2.15 Car - Royal Mackintosh - 1st 4/1
4.30 Car - Stravaigan - 2nd 9/1

3.15 Fol - Golden Desert - UP
4.25 Fol - Etoile D'Or - UP
5.00 Fol - Street Life - 2nd 3/1

4.40 Fon - Cleymor House - UP

3.40 Tow - Read All About It - UP
4.15 Tow - Boris The Blade - UP

6.50 Kem -Siena Star - 2nd 11/2
7.50 Kem - Your Pleasure - UP
9.20 Kem - Miss Marauder - 1st 8/1

Win Bank
Bets:39
Wins:6
Strikerate:15.38%
Staked:39pts
Returns:31.51pts
P/L:-7.49pts
Yield:-19.21%

EW Bank
Bets:39
Places:14
Strikerate:35.90%
Staked:39pts
Returns:29.47pts
Profit:-9.53pts
Yield:-24.44%

[WorkingForTheEnemy]

Another possible filter is that selections must be running from within the handicap. This is as if they arent they are carrying more weight than the handicapper's rating dictates and therefore negates any underrating of the horse. For now I will go without this but when it occurs will post the alternative also, in brackets. At the moment only the original selection will count towards the results.

Friday 11th April

3.30 Asc - Stagehand 15/16 +1
4.05 Asc - Ice Bucket 11/17 E
4.40 Asc - Native Coral 12/13 +1
5.15 Asc - Goodnight Tom 9/9 +2
(Mossville 4/9 E)

2.10 Don - Bridgewater Boys 1/15 E
2.40 Don - Khazina 14/16 +1
3.50 Don - Puy D'Arnac 9/11 E
4.25 Don - Tudor Prince 17/18 +2
(Pusey Street Lady 3/18 -1)

2.30 Mus - Grizebeck 1/1 +1
5.25 Mus - Rebel Duke 1/1 E

8.20 Wol - Straight Face 7/12 E
8.50 Wol - Royal Amnesty 4/5 +1