EW Perms (NH Racing)

[gregprowt]

still folllowing this Billy, sure the winning double is just around the corner

very unlucky on Sunday and a big priced 2nd today

[BillyHills]

Cheers Greg, salvaged another bet today- just! Had 1st and 2nd in the last at Kempton aswell which i put in the DHRC as reserves which is a bit of a sickener. Could lose the bank before I strike I fear. Still its been fun and i did want to get to 50 bets.

Bet 47

145 Kem: Noble Bily 2nd 16/1 / The Venetian (rubbish -9/4fav!)
220 Kem: Mobaasher 3rd 9/2 / Warnes Way

Mobaasher was 7/1 not long before the off so not as bad as it looks, cant believe they made The Venetian fav, wouldnt have picked it at 9/4, very poor value!!

2 x 2 1.25pt EW Doubles (10pts)
Returns : 9.98
Loss : 0.02
Bank : 29.14

BH

[Tyro]

Hello Billy,I've been hoping that you would strike it lucky with this idea, but as I've said before where it is possible for all of the place side of your bets to score the majority of the win side of the bets are doomed from the start. To get one winning double 2x2 bets three were bound to lose. You have done this bet on 38 occassions so you have given the bookie 114 points for nothing. On 6 occasions you did 2x3 bets to try and get a winning double. This meant that 5 of the win side of the bets were again doomed, that puts another 30 points into the bookies satchel. When you did 2x2x2 doubles 3 of them could win but 5 of them were doomed again. This happened on three occassions. another gift to our friendly turf accountant At the same time you did 8 trebles, 7 of them were d****d another 21 points given away and they must have paid for a big fat cigar and a nice bottle of wine for Honest Joe. You obviously know a great deal more than me about horse racing and I'm sure that you would win consistantly if you only chose one horse in each race for your each way
doubles The main object of gambling is to win, but to me it is also very important not to lose,so I always try to limit my losses by doing one horse in each race each way doubles if the odds add up to five or better i.e 5/2 x 5/2 If they both manage to place at 1/5 odds this will cover the cost of my bet. Please Billy pick one horse in each race and then I will follow your bets. All the best, Tyro

[BillyHills]

Thanks Tyro,

I honestly think you talk a lot of sense, but I think youve missed the point of this 'system', it was supposed to be speculative, going for that big return, I accept your point about backing one horse, been there, done it, I just wanted to try and go for something a little different and more adventurous, it was worth a shot and but I'm not after picking 5/2 shots to be placed just to get my dough back.
Its been fun and kept my eye in on the opening month or two of the Jump season which is notoriously difficult, if i can get 50 bets out of my £200 i'm not going to lose any sleep over it, as I said earlier I knew the strike rate would be poor, to be honest I thought I would have had more placed doubles buts thats down to me picking poor selections. If I was betting seriously I wouldnt be backing them every day for a start but ive enjoyed the challenge.

Thanks for taking an interest Tyro, much appreciated, when the bank runs out i'll try something else, its not easy spending time on here every day, putting up your selections for all to see and knowing some people think your wasting your time, I'm sure many do, if only one of my write ups has pinpointed a winner for someone then its been worth it.

BH

[BillyHills]

Off out so got to stick this on early

120 Bang : Leading Authority / Carnival Town

Interesting Novice Chase with many either having their first run over the bigger obstacles or having their first run of the season. Two i like which may pay to follow this season are Leading Authority and Carnival Town. Both very consistant types that battle all the way and should make good chasers. Leading Authority was always mapped out for this game and last year was just a bonus. The Tizzards have their horses running well at the minute and could be ready first time. Carnival Town's price may collapse because of the connections but cant fancy any of the others too much.

350 Bang : Lady Suffragette / Truly Fruitful

Bit of a puzzle this race because two of the main fav's have a long absence to get over and both from the same stable, so hard to know where we stand with them, one of the other fancied horses is Truly Fruitful who did me a good turn last time in an Amatuers race. Could well be on the upgrade so will follow it until beaten. Lady Suffragette is my main fancy today, this horse ran better than its finishing spot last time, a mistake just at the wrong time cost her a place and before that had been very consistant. The winner of that race went on to win again and it was her first run of the season so improvement can be expected. Has won on this type of ground and cant see a negative.

Bet 48

120 Ban: Leading Authority / Carnival Town
350 Ban: Lady Suffragette / Trully Fruitful

2 x 2 1.25pts EW Doubles

BH

[BillyHills]

Bet 48

120 Ban: Leading Authority / Carnival Town 2nd 16/1
350 Ban: Lady Suffragette / Trully Fruitful (4th!)

2 x 2 1.25pts EW Doubles
Returns : 0
Loss : 10
Bank 19.14

[BillyHills]

Leaving Cheltenham alone, too many to fancy!

12.40 Wetherby : The Saltire Tiger / Classic Harry

Nice race, especially when we have a fav that doesnt know how to win, he has solid form but just keeps getting beat so we must take him on. Classic Harry is well thought of by Peter Beaumont and his much improved run last time confirmed the promise. Anything like a bit more improvement would see him go close here so must be on the shortlist. One of the chase debutants worth looking at is The Saltire Tiger, strange that his connections want to go straight handicapping with top weight so the hint must be taken, he's a front runner sometimes so could go out and stretch these and be hard top peg back.

105 Uttoxeter : Mr President / Scarvagh Diamond

Not a fan of Megaton the fav so instantly like the look of this race, going for two unproven horses over fences but that have promised much in the past. Scarvagh Diamond comes from a good stable and Tony Dobbin comes here instead of Cheltenham to ride him, good prospect this one. Mr President hasnt run for two years but when with Venetia Williams was going to be a Cheltenham horse, Brendan Powell now has the chance to fulfill his potential and wouldnt be surprised if he can be fully fit first time out, if he retains his ability he could eat these for breakfast.

Bet 49
1240 Weth: Classic Harry / The Saltire Tiger
105 Uttox: Scarvagh Diamond / Mr President

2 x 2 1.25pts EW Doubles

BH

[BillyHills]

Bet 49
1240 Weth: Classic Harry NR/ The Saltire Tiger
105 Uttox: Scarvagh Diamond / Mr President (both Fell)

2 x 2 1.25pts EW Doubles
Returns : 0
Loss : 5pts
Bank 15.14

[BillyHills]

145 Cheltenham: The Silotar / La Dame Brune / Rio De Janiero

Great race this with many in with chances and also many that have taken each other on before, going to go with three against the field seeing as this is probrably my last bet. The Silotar has been very impressive so far and although this is a step up in class hopefully he has more to offer. La Dame Brune unfortunately fell when i selected it last week so will follow my initial thoughts that this will be a horse to watch this season. Rio De Janiero is a battler that stays well and this race could suit this one and would hope he will be fitter this time out.

255 Cheltenham : Lead On / Altilhar

Lead On was quite impressive despite going down to Dont Push It at Chepstow, he must be followed here with nothing of that calibre to worry about. Altilhar ran a nice race at Ascot without looking like winning but again should strip fitter and the stables horses have been either winning or going close and he likes big fields at Cheltenham which helps here.

BET 50

145 Ch: The Silotar / La dame Brune / Rio De Janiero
255 Ch: Lead On / Altilhar

2 x 3 1.25pts EW Doubles (15pts)

Its been fun with about £500 staked for the origional £200, if we get no returns this will be the last bet of this current system.
I know its not been everyones cup of tea but thats the great thing about Racing, we all have different opinions and as long as we have fun along the way then its ok.

BH

[RussP]

Good luck with these tomorrow, Graham. This has been a very interesting concept and I've enjoyed following it.

I like the look of the picks for Sunday, and hoping that a nice little double comes in

[kevsul]

Followed you most times through out BH, Sometimes I think a little unlucky as a couple of times you have had horses in the lead with one to jump amd then they finish out the frame

Been a great adventure which i am sure will continue, again sometime.

[bowles10]

well done for seeing it through BH, its the sort of bet that will come up with a big one 1 day. Perhaps just highlight the big meetings in future or try a different angle but hopefully it will reappear again some time in the season.