EW Perms (NH Racing)

[BillyHills]

Just Perth today and not a great bunch to pick from will have a go in the 4.15 and the 5.25 which seem fair handicaps with question marks over the market leaders.

415 Perth Waynesworld / Tickateal

Decent prize on offer so some southern stables making the trip, like Tribal Venture at the top of the weights and is sure to run well but might be just too short in the betting for value. Waynesworld is a bit high in the ratings but with a good last run and modest rivals could be worth taking a chance with especially as the stable seem to be going well. Waynesworld tends to run a few good races followed by a few bad so need to catch him when he's right and looks like this has been a target. Tickateal is interesting, got good cruising speed which will be key here as they are sure to go a decent gallop, not had too much experience over fences but the MRasen race he ran in is working out well and was staying on so this extra distance could be the answer, doesnt like it soft so if it turns I wouldnt back it but then it probrably wont run either, at 14/1 represents value.

525 Perth Greenfort Brave / Incas

Fav is Irish Raptor from the Twiston-Davies yard, not ran for ages so worth taking on as we get some value in the others. Greenfort Brave may look a risky bet but i believe will run a good race, dont know why they held it up last time as it doesnt suit the horse and it lost interest, Dominic Elsworth on it today and dont be surprised if it tries to set a decent pace, usually very genuine and likes it here at Perth, price is too big so has to be backed. Incas has been switching from Fences to Hurdles and won round here earlier in the season, this prize has been the target ever since and is very well handicapped at present over hurdles. The opposition isnt the strongest and will be disappointed if he cant at least get placed here.


Bet 11
415 P: Waynesworld / Tickateal (Tribal Venture if any NR's)
525 P: Greenfort Brave / Incas

2 x 2 1pt EW Doubles (8pts)

BH

[kevsul]

For today BH.

[BillyHills]

Bet 11
415 P: Waynesworld / Tickateal
525 P: Greenfort Brave NR / Incas 2nd 8/1

2 x 2 1pt EW Doubles (8pts)
Returns : 0
Loss : 8pts
Bank : 257.82

Losing bet today, 415 turned out to be too competative for both of my fancies, fairly happy with Incas in the 525.

[BillyHills]

Two meetings today and going for one from each, a chase at Perth and a handicap hurdle at Fontwell.

400 Perth Schinken Otto / Jefertiti

Tricky looking Chase with a few front runners so tactics could be decisive here and maybe a turn up on the cards. Schinken Otto is a horse ive noted looking like coming back to top form of late, ran much better than his finishing position suggests last time and now down to a decent mark so will give him a chance on a course he likes, at 10/1 i think he's been under estimated. Jefertiti also loves Perth and is a front runner, could be dominated by Colliers Court but he battles all the way and has won from off the pace so i'm not that concerned, again double figures in the betting F/C so very much a value bet here to be in the frame.

440 Fontwell Mistified / Borehill Joker

Not a lot in this race when you look at it, the market leaders are not that certain to run their best races, Tamango is really a chaser and Iron Maid is coming back after a break, the rags are fairly exposed which leaves the middle bunch. The pick of those for me are Mistified who although doesnt win much is at least in decent form and will stay all day, Borehill Joker showed improved form over fences last time and suggests he's about to strike now that the handicapper has given him a chance, back over hurdles and again at least we know the horse is in good nick.

Bet 12
400 P: Schinken Otto / Jefertiti
440 F: Mistified / Borehill Joker

2 x 2 1pt EW Doubles (8pts)


BH

[kevsul]

for today, hope no nr's as off to work now.

[BillyHills]

Bet 12
400 P: Schinken Otto / Jefertiti
440 F: Mistified 2nd 7/2/ Borehill Joker

2 x 2 1pt EW Doubles (8pts)
Returns : 0
Loss : 8pts
Bank : 249.82

[BillyHills]

Lingfield over the jumps today, poor level of animals to be honest, going for the two handicaps, 330 and 440.

330 Lingfield : Just Stunning / So Brash

Looked through this and it is very poor with little outside the top 4 in the market with a chance, decided to go with two that have at least current form and appear to be in good nick and most of all will stay this trip at around 6/1 and 4/1 they represent decent value. Andrew Thornton has ridden a couple in this race before but plumps for So Brash and young McCain continues to have his horses running consistantly so Just Stunning should be thereabouts.

440 Lingfield: Just Beware / Miss Midnight / Backlash

Absolute nightmare to sort out with lots of possibilities, going for three against the field as they all look good value against the front two in the betting. Just Beware had a break but if fit should be up with the pace and is very genuine and will battle to the line. Miss Midnight has a race in her but just needs the right ground and the right track as questions over her stamina is obvious, this looks like a decent opportunity to me. I'm going to add one of Tony Carroll's two in the mix and although his other one looks the more fancied I just like the way Backlash seems to be coming to hand and at 12/1 is worth including.

Bet 13
330 Lin: Just Stunning / So Brash
440 Lin: Just Beware / Miss Midnight / Backlash

2 x 3 1pt EW Doubles (12pts)

BH

[BillyHills]

Bet 13
330 Lin: Just Stunning / So Brash
440 Lin: Just Beware / Miss Midnight / Backlash 2nd 12/1

2 x 3 1pt EW Doubles (12pts)
Returns : 0
Loss : 12pts
Bank : 237.82

[BillyHills]

Some very comptetative races tomorrow at MRasen in which many can be fancied, 315 and 345 are the two main races.

315 MRasen Rakalackey / Kings Brook

This is a terrific race but none the less I really fancy the chances of Kings Brook to follow up his win at NAbbot. Won with something in hand that day and came off a strong pace, upped in the ratings but this horse is a progressive chaser and the race will be run to suit, at around 6/1 i cant see this one being out of the frame. Rakalackey is also much improved, its no coincidence i have gone for two similar types, you do need an improver to win these competative events. His win last time has been upheld by a couple of the horses that were in behind so must follow this one despite the step up in class.

345 MRasen Pigeon Island / Prince Ary

This hurdle race revolves around many horses that are trying to defy their highest marks in the handicap to date after running well during the summer, the knack is to try and find a couple that are still improving enough to be able to overcome the extra weight. Well i can only find one that could fit into that catorgory which is Pigeon Island, loves a fast run race which is certain and won with his head in his chest last week and could be in light here. I'm going for the Pipe's Prince Ary as my other selection, he could run well here after some decent efforts and has run off a higher mark than he his today so he only has to run up to his form rather than trying to run a personal best.

Bet 13
315 MR: Rakalackey / Kings Brook
345 MR: Pigeon Island / Prince Ary

2 x 2 1pt EW Doubles

BH

[BillyHills]

A bit unlucky today but you dont get nowt for that!

Bet 13
315 MR: Rakalackey / Kings Brook
345 MR: Pigeon Island W9/2 / Prince Ary 4th 16/1

2 x 2 1pt EW Doubles
Returns : 0
Loss : 8pts
Bank : 229.82pts

[BillyHills]

Last day of the month, still in profit which was the aim for this trial.
Again we just have one meeting with only really 3 races to go at and i've gone for the last two handicaps, cant say i'm that excited about them.

430 MRasen: Lord Of The Run / Own Line

A 2m6f chase which has a lot of older horses running and many pretty exposed, going for two different types all together, one slipping down the handicap after a fruitless period and the other rising in the weights after showing improved form and may be progressive in the context of this race.
Lord Of The Run has been rated as high as 119 yet just gets into this 0-110 handicap. Been running over several different distances and showed a glimpse of form the last twice, this is moderate so may get back into the frame at a decent price. Own Line won very here a few weeks ago and then ran badly when turned out quickly, have to forgive him that and if reproducing his earlier run will just about win this.

505 MRasen: Lik Wood Power / Dalriath

Another chase and no easier to sort out, going for Dalriath again as he never seems to run a bad race and he loves MRasen, maybe a bit high in the weights but sure to be there turning for home. Lik Wood Power is a slightly risky one because he seems to have been on the downgrade for sometime, ran in a seller last time which at first glance was a poor race but on aline through Gypsy Cricketer is well in with a couple of the more fancied horses here, will go off in front and battle it out and could hang on if in the mood. Physical Force is one to consider if we get the usual Sunday NR's

Bet 14
430 MR: Lord Of The Run / Own Line
505 MR: Dalriath / Lik Wood Power (Physical Force)

2 x 2 1pt EW Doubles (8pts)

BH

[Tyro]

Hello BH. I like the idea of doing e.w doubles on two or more races if the odds add up to five or more, but I only pick one horse in each race. If you choose two in each race then it means that three of your win doubles are bound to lose unless there should be a dead heat in one of the races. Any bookie would be glad to take this bet knowing that three of the bets are doomed from the start. Over a series of bets this quite a large loss to over come. Have you cosidered doing just the one horse in each race.
Anyway all the best with your system.
Tyro

[BillyHills]

Tyro, thanks for the interest despite you thinking i'm doomed.
I thought it was doing ok, only one winning double in 14 bets yet i'm in profit.
Seriously though Tyro, i know what you mean, its something ive done before and made a steady profit so i thought i'd share it thats all, i hate backing short prices and enjoy the challenge of trying to nail two good winners for a decent payout.
I'm not asking anyone to back them or follow my ideas, and we all have opinions, we will just have to see if my bookie keeps a smile on his face.

Thanks mate, BH

[BillyHills]

Bet 15 (had two bet 13's)
430 MR: Lord Of The Run 3rd 12/1/ Own Line
505 MR: Dalriath / Lik Wood Power NR(Physical Force)

2 x 2 1pt EW Doubles (8pts)
Returns : 0
Loss : 8pts
Bank :225.54

Bank figure was wrong, had a NR in a bet earlier and still deducted 8pts by mistake, in bet 2 the deduction was 78p wrong too!

[BillyHills]

Overview

September

Bets	15
Stakes	124.00
Returns	149.54
Profit	25.54
Yield	20.60%
Place Dbles	6/62	9.67%
Win Dbles	1/62	1.61%

In October i shall increase the stakes to 1.25pts, hopefully there will be more days where we have two meetings and more races to choose from.

[BillyHills]

Bet 16

430 Seg: Wilhewispa / Seymour Weld

Average 0-110 handicap, Wihewispa in my opinion has been crying out for this trip, he races promonently and often just gets done for toe between the last two but does stay on, the uphill finish here should hold no fears and the opposition is very exposed. Seymour Weld was known for picking up selling races at one time but does have good cruising speed so should be able to lay up, his last run was promising against better animals so a place here at least looks achievable.

530 Seg: Alpha Juliet / Thunderclap

Going for two horses that have little experience at this distance but could be the key to some improvement, Alpha Juliet's last run was his first at the longer trip and if he continues the improvement his many placed efforts could be turned into a win or two at his present mark. Thunderclap is an unknown at the trip but has been running as though he needs it, likes the track but the thing here is the ground, ignore any form on soft as he dosent act on it so conditions should be perfect today, if it did turn i wouldnt want to be involved.

Bet 16
430 Seg: Wilhewispa / Seymour Weld
530 Seg: Thunderclap / Alpha Juliet

2 x 2 1.25pt EW Doubles (10pts)

BH

[BillyHills]

Bet 16
430 Seg: Wilhewispa / Seymour Weld
530 Seg: Thunderclap / Alpha Juliet 3rd 8/1

2 x 2 1.25pt EW Doubles (10pts)
Returns : 0
Loss : 10
Bank : 215.54

[BillyHills]

Some uninspiring racing at Hexham today, for the first time going to a non handicap for some selections due to the poor races on show.

415 Hex: Teejay / Keltic Lord

3m 1f Chase and unusual in the fact that all of the horses are running off lower ratings than they have been doing lately which gives a glimpse of the form of some of these, anyway 11 runners can be easily narrowed down to 5 without much detective work. Teejay won this last year and has followed much the same path this season, only doesnt seem to be in such good form, however they thought something was amiss last time and probrably didnt achieve the best placing, it was an improvement so will take a chance at about 8/1. Keltic Lord sneaks into this 0-95 race having been dropped a couple of pounds lately and the fact that Choc Thornton comes here for the one ride must be in his favour. Needs a test nowadays to get involved and sure to be staying on.

450 Hex: Augustine / Depraux

A novice hurdle in which the fav looks in good heart but opponents are thin on the ground and Augustine looks sure to figure in the finish, ran twice both with promise, further improvement would give him a real chance, stable going well too. Depraux could be the pace setter here and burn off most of the rags, if he gets a soft lead he could be hard to pass, is fighting fit and the trainer continues to be in good nick, also stays further than this distance so will try to bring stamina into play.

Bet 17
415 Hx: Teejay / Keltic Lord
450 Hx: Depraux / Augustine
2 x 2 1.25pts EW Doubles (10pts)