EW Perms (NH Racing)

[RussP]

Graham,
Just seen this thread as I've been away. Really, really like the idea especially with your knack of picking out those big priced runners.
I may have a look at doing something similar (if that's ok?). There are several times I'm torn between 2, and do look EW doubles.
Following with interest, and I know that big win double is just around the corner.
GL

[stewartd14]

Decided to follow you today BH for the first time. Unfortunately had to put the bets on early and had to include Ravenscar. When I found out it wasnt running, couldnt change it to Lost In Normandy.



Nice winner though.

[BillyHills]

Thanks Russ, no problem mate with you doing similar, as ive said the strike rate for the double wont be high (if ever!) the way i pick em but fun to have a go and been a touch unlucky to date, a lot of the time i tend to choose horses slipping down the handicap, only problem with that is the reason they are going downwards is because there out of form, knack is to try and predict the return to form, hence sometimes i'm way off the mark.

Stew, yeah mate I didnt realise until later, thought it was worth a saver with the Scudamore team in good nick, they backed it well too!

Anyway back to the scoreboard

Bet 6
510 Str: Miss Muscat / Ravenscar NR (Lost In Normandy won 8/1)
520 Fon: Classi Maureen / Will The Till
2 x 2 1pt EW Doubles (8pts)
Return : 0
Loss : 8pts
Bank : 178.32

[BillyHills]

Just Uttoxeter today, didnt take much picking to be honest as one race had two horses ive been waiting for.

400 Utt: Cream Cracker / Lord Baskerville

Cream Cracker could have this race set up for him, likes to come off a strong pace and has been running well without quite getting there, last time was slightly hampered in a much better race, has the trip and the ground in his favour, only problem i have is the jockey, young lad from Rodfords yard, had 8 rides and Alner wouldnt put him up if he wasnt ok, his 7lbs claim comes in very handy so will take a chance.
Lord Baskerville has claims on his best form and hasnt ran a bad race all year, dropped another pound, over slightly further which may suit and at the price 20/1 looks too big.

505 Utt: Boxclever / Tommy Spar

A good 3m handicap with several who are exposed, going for one ive been watching all season in Boxclever, heavily backed last time on what i thought was unsuitable ground, had it down as a real firm ground horse, anyway for whatever reason it didnt deliver and now does get the ground, had been unlucky previously so maybe this is the time it can take advantage of his mark, the other unexposed one over hurdles is Tommy Spar, been running well over fences on a mark of 137 now, runs here off 101 so you can see why i say its unexposed, wont be a big price (6/1 in RP) but could win this without much fuss.

Bet 7
400 Utt: Lord Baskerville / Cream Cracker
505 Utt: Boxclever / Tommy Spar
2 x 2 1pt EW Doubles (8pts)

[stewartd14]

Close again BH, that big one is just around the corner.

Cream Cracker - 3rd @ 8/1

[BillyHills]

Bet 7
400 Utt: Lord Baskerville / Cream Cracker 3rd 8/1
505 Utt: Boxclever / Tommy Spar
2 x 2 1pt EW Doubles (8pts)

Return : 0
Loss : 8pts
Bank : 170.32

No excuses here, Boxclever and Tommy Spar ran poorly.

[BillyHills]

Bangor On Dee today, narrowed it down to three races i like, decided to drop the 4.10 because although Tora Petcha is a massive price my other fancy will go off fav and poor value. Leaves me with the 5.15 and 3.35.

335 Ban: Pukka Tique / Ticket To Ride / Barracat

Such a large field with lots of value around so can afford to go for three against the field here. Pukka Tique is the first one, ran really well on his chase debut last time, connections obviously expect this will be a better chaser than a hurdler after starting off his hurdle rating, if he can just improve slightly he has every chance. Ticket To Ride is a funny customer, ex French winner and has been running around 2mile, but always looking as though he wants further, well this is 3m so it could be the key, only problem is he hardly runs on firm ground so we'll just have to see if takes part, but interesting anyway at about 14/1. Barracat looks like he's ready to run a decent race, second behind Prof Hegarty and gets a hefty weight pull, that horse is about fav so the price for this one must be value at 12/1, has lots in his favour too so would expect a place at least and worth including in the doubles.

515 Ban: Matt The Thrasher / Downing Street

These 3 mile races are quite often not very competative, lot of horses fail to stay and run in these as a last resort, on quick ground you need horses that will gallop to the line off a quick pace, not a slogger. Matt The Thrasher stays forever and is in fine form, looked dangerous last time but failed to get up, this extra distance will suit in a race where many have questions to answer. Downing Street has done well on the flat this season and being a winner at this distance over hurdles looks to have both flat speed and stamina, at 7/1 looks very good value, top weight but has been running in Class 2's so this is a drop in grade and will be therabouts.

Bet 8

335 Ban: Pukka Tique / Ticket To Ride / Barracat
515 Ban: Matt The Thrasher / Downing Street

3 x 2 1pt EW Doubles (12pts)

[BillyHills]

Bet 8

335 Ban: Pukka Tique / Ticket To Ride 3rd 16/1 / Barracat
515 Ban: Matt The Thrasher / Downing Street

3 x 2 1pt EW Doubles (12pts)
Return : 0
Loss : 12.00
Bank : 158.32

[BillyHills]

320 Stratford

A race where many are racing off their highest marks so will have to do a lifetime best to win, I'll side with an unexposed sort in Prince Vector, had three runs all showing some sort of promise, I reckon the track will suit this one and the handicapper may have let him a couple of pounds light. Tom Bell ran a nice race without threatening to win last time at MRasen, he looks to be running very near his best and could be in the shake up here, at about 12/1 the price looks decent value.

505 Stratford

The fav Cape Stormer looks a solid form guide and will give us a bit of value elswhere as it looks a bit too short. Once A Brownie could improve quite a bit for his last run and if he does will be hard to beat, well fancied that day but the winner is a very fast improving horse so the form may not be that bad. Native Daisy I'm taking a chance on at a big price, always runs well after a break and has the ground and track to suit, will be up there and battles on so could get into a place.

Bet 9
320 Str: Tom Bell / Prince Vector
505 Str: Once A Brownie / Native Daisy

2 x 2 1pt EW Doubles (8pts)

[kevsul]

Good Luck with this today BH.




Did see tom bell earlier and backed e/w.

But remembered this thread , so going to have a small play with you today.

[BillyHills]

Bet 9
320 Str: Tom Bell / Prince Vector 4th
505 Str: Once A Brownie NR/ Native Daisy

2 x 2 1pt EW Doubles (8pts)
Returns : 0
Loss : 4pts due to NR
Bank : 154.32

[BillyHills]

2 meetings on Sunday but due to lack of recent jump racing the cards are a bit messy, tread carefully is my advice but I'll have a go anyway.

230 Plumpton
Kilrogan / Reasonably Sure
Novice handicap which looks very weak in depth and should be fought out between the top 4 in the betting, i'll go for two of them one an improving horse the other a reliable type that doesnt win often. The improver is Kilrogan, 4-1 in the post, i'll gladly take that now, very impressed by the horse and the jockey when winning at Stratford, has loads of weight but its all relative. Reasonably Sure has improved since waring the visor and always travels well without winning, sure to be therabouts and at around 7/1 will be a fair price.

450 Uttoxeter
Once A Brownie / Macmar / Willies Way
Hot favourite here that bolted up at Stratford last week, cant knock the form but at around evens its a poor bet so i'm going to take it on because of the added value attached. Once A Brownie was my tip when it was pulled out last time, see no reason to jump ship so will back it again, Willies Way is the other one i like although it has fallen the last twice, been in a good challenging position and if it runs anywhere near that mark it should be fighting out the places at least. As I had 4pts void in the last bet i'm going to put up an extra horse in this race at a big price, Macmar is interesting for Robert Alner, been hurdling a lot and looks well weighted on his return to fences and could be anything, at 16/1 is worth a nibble.

Bet 10
230 Plu: Kilrogan / Reasonably Sure
450 Utt: Macmar / Once A Brownie / Willies Way

2 x 3 1pt EW Double (12pts)

[BillyHills]

Bet 10
230 Plu: Kilrogan / Reasonably SureNR
450 Utt: Macmar / Once A Brownie / Willies Way

With Reasonably Sure not running, i'll replace it with Secret Glen, bet now reads;

Bet 10
230 Plu: Kilrogan / Secret Glen
450 Utt: Macmar / Once A Brownie / Willies Way

2 x 3 1pt EW Double (12pts)

[mowgli77]

Originally Posted by BillyHills

With Reasonably Sure not running, i'll replace it with Secret Glen, bet now reads;

Bet 10
230 Plu: Kilrogan / Secret Glen 1st
450 Utt: Macmar 3rd/ Once A Brownie /
Willies Way 1st

2 x 3 1pt EW Double (12pts)

2:30

1 Secret Glen 15-2

2 Kilrogan 9-2

3 Junctiontwentyfour 11-1

10 ran

Also: 4-1 Fav Radbrook Hall, 12-1 Vibe 4th

NR: Reasonably Sure, No Greater Love

4:50

1 Willies Way 9-1

2 Spare Change 7-4 Fav

3 Macmar 18-1

12 ran

Also: 16-1 Cassia Heights 4th

Will be intereting to see returns of those. The 15-2/9-1 double is a belter. Well done Graham, haven't looked in the systems section 4a while and regretting it now.

[BillyHills]

Cheers Phil, about time too, took 10 bets to nail it.
Willys Way was 11/1 and Macmar 25/1 close to the off but i suppose i cant complain, Update it all later

BH

[RussP]

Absolutely brilliant, Graham
Quick 'in the head' calcs say approx 135pts return, I think. Superb mate.

[BillyHills]

Well i did say the strike rate wouldnt be great but didnt think it would be 10 bets before we got back into profit, anyway 3 of the 4 were shortened at the off costing us another 20pts!!!! thats the problem with showing a system at SP prices i suppose. Anyway i prefer to be judged like that rather than quoting prices no-one can get on at.

Bet 10
230 Plu: Kilrogan 2nd 9/2 / Secret Glen Won 15/2
450 Utt: Macmar 3rd 18/1 / Once A Brownie / Willies Way Won 9/1

2 x 3 1pt EW Double (12pts)
Stake : 12pts
Returns : 123.50pts
Pl 9/2 - Won 9/1 : 6.18pts
Pl 9/2 - Pl 18/1 : 10.45pts
W 15/2 - Pl 18/1 : 13.75pts
W 15/2 - W 9/1 : 93.12pts

Profit : 111.50pts
Bank : 265.82pts

BH

[tedthewolf]

Nice one Billy

[kevsul]

Originally Posted by BillyHills

With Reasonably Sure not running, i'll replace it with Secret Glen, bet now reads;

Bet 10
230 Plu: Kilrogan / Secret Glen
450 Utt: Macmar / Once A Brownie / Willies Way

2 x 3 1pt EW Double (12pts)

Well done BH.



As you know i follow this, I put my bets on early in the morning around 9.30, and off to work,

Check it this morning and thinking great little touch.


Then i see the NR, which of course you replaced, but not me as at work.

Still got a profitable return..


I will be on when you hit the 33/1 and 25/1 winner anyway.

[BillyHills]

Then i see the NR, which of course you replaced, but not me as at work.

Sorry about that Kev, just getting a bit pissed off at all the NR's these days so always have a next best in mind