EW Perms (NH Racing)

[BillyHills]

As the proper NH Season is not that far off now i'm going to have a go at some EW Doubles trying to find some value bets along the way.
There are 14 days Jump racing in September so it gives me a chance to see how it goes before the season gets really going.

Rather than just select horses for EW singles which I do elswhere on the forum, i'm going to try a different approach and see if my old 2x2 system can make a profit. I will try and select at least two races a day and two horses in each race and perm them in EW doubles, the odd occasion there may be three races but i dont see this happening with one jump meeting on most of the 14 days racing planned in Sept.
I dont expect a high strike rate but returns can be decent if I get lucky!

All bets will be 1pt EW and will throw £200 at this and see how long it lasts.

Reasoning behind the selections will be just fair value compared to the favourite, i'll take prices where I can or think are worth taking, if i have to put the selections up the night before i'll just take SP.

If by some miracle the bank increases by 50% then stakes may be upped aswell but lets just see what I have left in the kitty by the end of Sept.

System starts Sept 1st at Newton Abbot

BH

[davidmphill]

Best of luck Graham, hope you can hit some nice winners here.

[kevsul]

Good Luck with this BH.

I for one will certainly be looking on with avid intrest.

[BillyHills]

Ok, here we go, just one meeting today at Newton Abbot and after looking at the 6 races narrowed it down to two of the handicaps, one very competative and the other a poor race.

335 Kings Brook / Tango Royal

Tough race to call but for £21,000 a decent prize to go at for these second division chasers. Tempted by Chilling Place back over fences but probrably weighted up to his best and i want to see if he's got over his bad experiences of last season before backing him. Going for Kings Brook at the bottom of the weights, taking a chance on his first run since pulling up but is very well handicapped with the Fav Iron Man and the booking of Choc Thornton is a plus also C/D winner and loves the ground.
Tango Royal is my other against the field, always runs his heart out in these summer handicaps and is Tom Scudamore's choice of the Pipe runners.

515 Goldbrook / Espoir Du Bocage

Chose this race because i just dont fancy the front three for different reasons, reckon at least one of them will disappoint so leaving at least one place to fill by something at better odds, of the remainder I can only see Goldbrook (well handicapped, fair form last time over fences) and Espoir Du Bocage (well thought of last season but made too many mistakes but ran at Haydock and Aintree, so this is easier) as possible alternatives at fair prices so i'll take them both.


Bet 1
335 NA : Kings Brook / Tango Royal
515 NA : Goldbrook / Espoir Du Bocage

2 x 2 1pt EW Doubles (£8 staked)

[bowles10]

GL with this mate.

Look forward to reading those winners.

[BillyHills]

Bet 1
335 NA : Kings Brook WON 12/1 / Tango Royal
515 NA : Goldbrook / Espoir Du Bocage 2nd 16/1

2 x 2 1pt EW Doubles (8pts staked)
Returns 16.80pts
Profit 8.80pts
Bank 208.80pts

Nearly nailed it on the first bet but a profit anyway.

[BillyHills]

Sunday Sept 2nd

310 Newton Abbot : Cream Cracker/ Croix De Guerre

Another big summer handicap and a lot of these have ran against each other before, fav is the Irish raider Sonnyanjoe, hard to work out the form but happy to let that one go, next two in the betting Jo Lively (novice who will find this tougher) and I'm Spartacus (ex useful on the flat but ran well below par last week) are worth opposing also so having a stab at this with a couple who will go off at double figure SP's that can run decent races. Cream Cracker is a slight unknown over the trip but did put up a very good performance over a touch shorter at Uttoxeter, the forms reads well, the ground is right and at 20/1 the price is too. For the other one i'm going for Croix De Guerre, Hobbs the trainer always has a trier in these races and now its been dropped a few pounds could get into the argument, also likes the ground and has been too consistant for his own good at times but may just get in the shake up here.

450 Market Rasen : Dalriath / Cumbrian Knight

Now this is a very poor race compared to the N.Abbot one, nearly anything could win it on its day but it gives a chance to Dalriath on his beloved Market Rasen. Always runs an honest race but just lacks the pace to land a competative event, again ran well last time up to a point but just lacked a final kick, I dont believe he will need one here and at 16/1 looks good value. One to go with it is Cumbrian Knight, had a break for 3 months and came back on the flat to sharpen up, last time out was given an easy time after his chance had gone over a trip maybe too far, back in trip and on firmer going we could see a different horse, 10/1 at the moment looks too big and wouldnt be surprised if it was backed like one of his stablemates at the last meeting here.

Bet 2
310 NA: Cream Cracker / Croix De Guerre
450 MR: Dalriath / Cumbrian Knight

2x2 1pt EW Doubles (8pts)

[friskyfitz]

Originally Posted by BillyHills

Bet 1
335 NA : Kings Brook WON 12/1 / Tango Royal
515 NA : Goldbrook / Espoir Du Bocage 2nd 16/1

2 x 2 1pt EW Doubles (8pts staked)
Returns 16.80pts
Profit 8.80pts
Bank 208.80pts

Nearly nailed it on the first bet but a profit anyway.

Nice going Graham

[StuGriffin]

Good day! i like the cut of this guys jib! Reader of this site for some time, registered today.. I followed your advice today, so close to a monster payout. Good luck tomorrow

[BillyHills]

Thanks for the comments Frisky and Stu (welcome to the PL), dont expect to hit many times like i've said but when it does hopefully its worth it.

Bet 2
310 NA: Cream Cracker / Croix De Guerre 4th 12/1
450 MR: Dalriath / Cumbrian Knight
Returns : 0
Loss : 8pts
Bank : 200.08pts

Only one placed at 12/1 so the doubles bite the dust, Dalriath was a clear 3rd turning for home at 20/1 but faded to finish 5th, had a run for my money though.
2x2 1pt EW Doubles (8pts)

Next bet Tuesday at Segdefield

[StuGriffin]

you were unlucky not to get cream cracker placed too, that faller killed his race

[BillyHills]

Just wrote this out once and lost it in cyberspace!
Sedgefield looks a very tricky card so tread carefully, i'm opting for two handicaps the 330 and 515.

330 Reasonably Sure / Another Jameson

The front two in the market fought out the finish at MRasen on sunday so it will take a good performance to repeat that here and looks a race to take them on, for the life of me i cant fancy any of the rags, they are just very average, Indigo Sky could go well but is a right moody animal. The two i'm going for are Another Jameson and Reasonably Sure, not massive prices but value all the same. Another Jameson ran well on his debut before coming down 3 out and last time out didnt quite stay the trip but probrably completing the course was the main aim to boost confidence, back at the right trip on his favoured ground he could go well at around 10/1. The other one i'm backing is Reasonably Sure, been called many names in the past but looked quite good in a better race at Stratford with the visor on, as long as he reproduces that (not 100% guaranteed) he will surely make the frame.

515 Welsh Dream / Court One

Another competative race with a few possibles and a lot of bad horses, Telegonus could go well for the in form McCain stable but wont be a value price on what he has shown, the top weight Welsh Dream looks good to me, dropped down to 97 so now gets in these 0-100 races which is more his level, back on firm ground at a track he has won and been placed at, also in fine form so cant see it running a bad race, could well be backed this one but will have to settle for SP. My other fancy is a bit more speculative in Court One, the best handicapped horse in the race and with a decent showing last time out it may be the time to catch him, now he has changed stables to Tina Jackson it may have sweetened him up. He has dropped over a stone in the ratings so if he did come back to form he would obviously have a chance.

Bet 3
330 Seg: Another Jameson / Reasonably Sure
515 Seg: Welsh Dream / Court One

2 x 2 1pt EW Doubles (8pts)

BH

[artbrut]

Good luck with this one.
just hope i follow your bets on the right days.

[BillyHills]

Winner and a second again today, slight loss but wouldve made a profit if taking opening prices as both were well backed at the off.
Another Jameson and Welsh Dream both ran well below their best and look disappointing at the moment.

Bet 3
330 Seg: Another Jameson / Reasonably Sure 2nd 9/2 (opened 13/2)
515 Seg: Welsh Dream / Court One Won 7/1 (opened 10/1)

2 x 2 1pt EW Doubles (8pts)
Returns : 5.84
Loss : 2.16
Bank :197.92

Next bet Hereford tomorrow
BH

[BillyHills]

A dire card at Hereford to be honest but taking a chance on the 250 and 430 handicaps, see if we get another winner!

250: Gypsy Cricketer / Rifleman

A 0-85 seller with 18 runners, just the recipe for disaster or a turn up, you can put a line through most of these i reckon and of the few i have left i'm going for a couple that could run an improved race from last time out and hence get a bit of value. Gypsy Cricketer has a bit going for him at least, the right ground is the key and usually runs well with Tom Scudamore in the saddle, was badly hampered last time out so ignore that and should be at least the same price as Apadi (9/2). At around 8/1 and four places its fair value. Rifleman despite his awful form figures has actually ran with a bit of promise on occasion, likes to be up with the pace or just off it which will be required around here and likes the ground, just gets in this race after dropping a couple of pounds and could run well at 12/1 or bigger.

430: Tom Bell / Classi Maureen

Although this a 0-110 handicap I cant really see anything with potential or in good current form at a fair price, for this reason i reckon the top one Tom Bell may show them the way home, on first looks appears badly handicapped but because he loves this track and the ground it will compensate nicely, jockey takes 5lb off aswell, 12/1 looks too big. The bottom weight Classi Maureen could have a little more improvement to come, had a break after a busy spell ending in a fair 7th in decent company, if she is allowed to dominate round here it could be good enough for a place at least, at about 8/1 i reckon its a very good EW bet.

Bet4
250 Her: Gypsy Cricketer / Rifleman
430 Her: Tom Bell / Classi Maureen

2x2 1pt EW Doubles (8pts)

BH

[kevsul]

Unlucky on the first attempt BH.


Good Luck for tomorrow mate.

[BillyHills]

Bet 4
250 Her: Gypsy Cricketer 3rd 6/1 / Rifleman
430 Her: Tom Bell / Classi Maureen

2x2 1pt EW Doubles (8pts)
Returns : 0
Loss : 8pts
Bank : 189.92

No good today, just one placed at a poor price and the best we could in the second leg was 5th at 28/1, Classi Maureen ran as though needed the race, very disappointing.

Next Bet 8th September at Stratford.

[BillyHills]

Decent looking card at Stratford and was a toos up as to which races to choose, like Croc An Oir in the 215 but nothing else stands out to go with it so gone for the 345 and 450.

345 Liverpool Echo / Baodai

Liverpool Echo was once rated 135 and now down to 117 which is more realistic but still well treated as the horse has returned to some decent form, especially at this track, (won and 2nd), found the trip a bit short last time and now back over his favourite trip and Choc Thornton takes the ride again, i can see a fair run. With doubts about the front two in the betting Baodai at 6/1 could be good value here, a good second at MRasen last time, likes quick ground which i think he'll get and Tom O'Brien rides who has won on him before, interesting that Johnson rides another horse but O'Brien does get on with several from the stable better than the stable jockey.

450 Espoir Du Bocage / Dalriath

Two horse already done on this thread, they both ran very well and deserve to backed again in similar races. Espoir Du Bocage made late headway to take second, was a good confidence booster after some indifferent jumping and with the stable going well he can now be put in the race a bit earlier. Dalriath is a massive price so will take a chance on him, was going very well until 2 out the other day and now steps back in trip, likes the track and hopefully the ground will dry up a bit.

Bet 5
345 Str: Liverpool Echo / Baodai
450 Str: Espoir Du Bocage / Dalriath
2 x 2 1pt EW Doubles (8pts)

[BillyHills]

Bet 5
345 Str: Liverpool Echo / Baodai 2nd 4/1
450 Str: Espoir Du Bocage / Dalriath 2nd 12/1
2 x 2 1pt EW Doubles (8pts)

Returns : 3.40
Loss : 4.60
Bank : 185.32

Two seconds today, neither really look like winning to be honest, Dalriath's odds were affected by the paper fav withdrawing and wasnt surprised to see Baodai backed after the front two were very weak in the market.

On to Sunday

[BillyHills]

Two meetings on Sunday, i'm going for one from each, low level stuff as usual, lets hope for a winner or two!

510 Str: Miss Muscat / Ravenscar (Lost In Normandy)

16 runner condtional jockey handicap, not the best of recipes for finding winners but going for two against the field that have their regular jockey riding so thats a step in the right direction. Miss Muscat is a very genuine animal who runs on any going and over both hurdles and fences, faded last time over hurdles on firm ground, think he went off a bit quick and paid the price. Looks well handicapped over fences in the context of this poor race and again should be up there from the off and i cant see many who are capable of getting in to it. Ravenscar is a tricky choice, hasnt really set the world alight since his break and yet to show he retains his full ability, thought i saw glimpes of it 2 runs ago and then was hampered last time when beat, so i'm giving it one more chance as the price is very big at around 20/1. Lost In Normandy looks interesting but will need the ground right and will back it if any of my selections are NR's.

520 Fon: Classi Maureen / Will The Till

Classi Maureen was my tip the other day and was disappointing, was coming back from a break and over a trip that may well have been too far, i'm prepared to forgive that run as both excuses are answered here, a more suitable trip and now should have blown off any cob webs that were there, at about 8/1 looks value. Will The Till caught my eye with a battling performance at Cartmel last time, wasnt the stables fancied runner but plugged on well, the price looks too big in the post at 16/1, in a very tricky race he could surprise a few and grab a place.

Bet 6
510 Str: Miss Muscat / Ravenscar (Lost In Normandy)
520 Fon: Classi Maureen / Will The Till
2 x 2 1pt EW Doubles (8pts)