The Curse of the Flying Dutchman

[Kamo]

Nice call Rio

[whoneedsrio]

Originally Posted by Kamo

Nice call Rio

Thanks again.

Paco Boy was very impressive, he should get a mile better next season.
The two hotpots got turned over by the other shortlisted pair.

Actual bets
Wins/Runs 15/50
Stakes 2095pts
Returns 2754.91pts
Profit/Loss +659.91pts

Prix de L'Abbye
5f Group1
2yo+

Marchand D'or & Fleeting Spirit both have 3stars.

This could be a bit sharp for Marchand D'or who needed all of the 6f on the July course to get up on the line, although he did win on his only try at this trip in June. I just get the feeling they aren't going to be hanging around here & he could get taken off his feet early in the race.

Fleeting Spirit looked a world beater on her return in the Temple stakes in May but then was a bit disappointing when third in the King's Stand. The stable was under a cloud at the time & is in better shape now.
She goes well fresh but the doubt is the ground, she's yet to race on softer than good but if she does handle it she should run well.

Of the rest.
Most of the usual suspects & most of them would look to prefer it faster as well including Equiano, Captain Gerrard & National Colour. Borderlescott has soft ground form & doesn't know how to run a bad race & the Hungarian raider Overdose is unbeaten & could be anything.

Not a race to go mad at but Fleeting Spirit is worth a bet.
I've taken a price but will also watch the PM odds incase something silly pops up.

Bet.
Fleeting Spirit 25pts @ 7/1 Sportingbet.

Rio.

[whoneedsrio]

Prix de L'Opera
10f Group1
3yo+ F&M

Lush Lashes has 4stars.
Katiyra has 3stars.

Lush Lashes is a Group1 winner at 8 & 12f & would have won at that level at this trip too but for that ride at Goodwood. The ground was on the soft side on her last run but she wouldn't like it too deep. She also seems to prefer flat tracks & she didn't handle Epsom or Goodwood that well & this is a quirky course as well. Add the fact that I have no faith in the jockey avoiding traffic problems & I wouldn't back her with free money.

Katiyra was in front of Lush Lashes in the Oaks & then seemed not to get home in the Irish Oaks. Dropped back in trip she's won a Lited race & a Group3 on her last two starts. Both of this were on soft/heavy & she should have her conditions today. This is a step up in class again but she's not had that many starts & is still open to improvement.

Of the Rest.
Moonstone was in front of both of these at Epsom & has since won that Irish Oaks but she hasn't run since & Murtagh's gone for You'resothrilling.
That one made a late return this season in the Matron stakes behind Lush Lashes & steps up from a mile today.
Treat Gently looks the best of the French & ran well in third behind Zarkava LTO & Fabre's are always to be feared.

Again not one to go mad at but Katiyra's a fair price.

Bet.
Katiyra 25pts @ 7/1 VCbet.

Prix de L'Arc de Triomphe
12f Group1
3yo+

Zarkava has 4stars.
Vison D'Etat ha 3stars.

Sme doubts over Zarkava running this morning with plenty of rain overnight but not much at Longchamp apparently.
She's six from six with four Group1's in there & won LTO over C&D after giving them all a start when walking out of the stalls, came late & won going away. She won't get away with that today with this high class field.

Vison D'Etat is also six from six & won the Prix Niel LTO which is usually the best trial for this. Won the Fench Derby before that & in both races battled well to win.

Of the rest.
The Japanese horse Meisho Samson somewhat skews the figures for the earnings & fancied/class columns with the massive prize money in the far east. Were he not in then Duke of Marmalade would have made the shortlist. However he looks to have been sent here as an afterthought & might not like the ground today.
Soldier of Fortune looks to have been aimed at this all season but couldn't win this last year.
Getaway looked good FTO but also was only placed last year.

Yet again only a small bet here.

Bet.
Vison D'Etat 25pts @ 9.2 Betfair.

Rio.

[whoneedsrio]

Reasonable runs from the three bets.

Two of the three races went to shortlisted horses including Zarkava who showed she is the real deal.

Actual bets
Wins/Runs 15/53
Stakes 2170pts
Returns 2754.91pts
Profit/Loss +584.91pts

Rio.

[whoneedsrio]

Bengough Stakes
6f Group3
3yo+

Sir Gerry has 3stars.

Sir Gerry won a Listed race here in the Spring & also ran good thirds in the Golden Jubilee & Diadem, all over C&D.
In that last run the pace was not too strong & with more pace likely today this will suit Sir Gerry who also will have no bother with the ground. At 3yo he is still open to improvement

Quite a few of these were behind Sir Gerry in the Diadem & the likely dangers are the Ayr Gold Cup winner Regal Parade & the 3yo filly Perfect Polly.

Bet.
Sir Gerry 50pts @ 4.3 Betfair.

Rio.

[TheLubet]

Hi Rio,
I would like to say that this is the most interesting thread i have ever come accross. You must be congratulated on your system and the effort for obtaining your Picks. I will follow with great interest.. I read a book by Dick Francis many years ago, Your Thread brought the book back into my mind but not the title. I back the odd horse every now and again for the laugh. Best of Luck!

The Lubet.

[whoneedsrio]

Originally Posted by TheLubet

Hi Rio,
I would like to say that this is the most interesting thread i have ever come accross. You must be congratulated on your system and the effort for obtaining your Picks. I will follow with great interest.. I read a book by Dick Francis many years ago, Your Thread brought the book back into my mind but not the title. I back the odd horse every now and again for the laugh. Best of Luck!

The Lubet.

Many thanks for your interest, much appreciated.

Sir Gerry was a bit disappointing, the trainer did say that the horse has appeared to have "gone in his coat" & he may have had enough for the season. He seems to go well fresh & could be one to watch for FTO next season.

Actual bets
Wins/Runs 15/54
Stakes 2220pts
Returns 2754.91pts
Profit/Loss +534.91pts

Darley Stakes
9f Group3
3yo+

Kirklees has 3stars.

Kirklees won a Group1 in Italy at 2yo's for Mark Johnston & then moved to Godolphin where he won two races at this time of the year after almost a year off. Had just over a year off again so is clearly not easy to train but does go fresh & the stable has finally hit form, although not at the top level.

Of the rest.
Bankable is begining to look one of those that is expensive to follow & does not appeal at the price.
Mawatheeq routed a bunch of handicappers at Ascot LTO but that was off a mark of 85 & this is a big step up in class.
Similar thoughts about the bottom one Sahpresa who won a Listed race in France LTO but won't get her own way here.
Stubbs Art had good form in the Classics early doors but hasn't sparkled in lower class since.
The top three all have a penalty to carry & apart from Bronze Cannon who is on the comeback trail here after flopping at the Royal meeting the rest look a bit exposed.

Not a race to have the mortgage on but with a profit for the season assured & Bin Suroor finally hitting form, Kirklees (where I live!) looks worth a small bet.

Bet.
Kirklees 30pts @ 7.8 Betfair.

Rio.

[whoneedsrio]

A fair run in third from Kirklees behind the outsider Charlie Farnsbarns, Bankable is begining to look like a professional runner up.

Actual bets
Wins/Runs 15/55
Stakes 2250pts
Returns 2754.91pts
Profit/Loss +504.91pts

I been working today & to be honest I've stuggled to do the working out for the four races tomorrow, I can hardly keep my eyes open. Working Saturday too which is a pity because not only is there the cracking Newmarket card but the first meeting of the new season at Cheltenham.
I'm just going to put up the shortlists & slope off to bed as I can't get my head round having a bet.

Challenge Stakes
7f Group2
3yo+

Major Cadeaux & Stimulation both have 3stars.

Champion Stakes
10f Group1
3yo+

New Approach has 4stars.
Linngari & Russian Cross both have 3stars.

Pride Stakes
12f Group2
3yo+ F&M

Unsung Heroine has 4stars.
Crystal Capella has 3stars.

Jockey Club Cup
16f Group3
3yo+

Veracity has 3stars.

I may slip out for a bet tomorrow if I get chance to have more of a look with the brain working better but any wagers struck will not be included in the returns.

Rio.

[whoneedsrio]

The winners of all four races last week were shortlisted & not a penny did I have on any of them. As I said then I was tired out & couldn't get my thinking straight, it's taken me most of the week to come round & I think I'm getting too old for this shift lark.

Well I think this is it, the fat lady is on the stage & ready to rumble, I make this the last qualifying race of the season.

St Simon stakes
12f Group3
3yo+

Blue Monday & Buccellati have 3stars.

Blue Monday has come back to form since his return from Oz & won at this level here over a furlong shorter LTO, beating Spanish Moon a short head.
Goes well here & is two from three at the track the other time beaten a short head.

Buccellati also won LTO, that was a Listed contest at Newmarket over this trip. Raced closer to the pace than usual that day & is normally held up. This softer ground might not help today & doesn't look straightforwad.

Of the rest.
Spanish Moon should not be far off Blue Monday, in fact he's 3lb better off for that short head which on a strict reading of form means he ought to turn that around today.
Stoute runs two & Ask looks to be his main one.
Three times a winner at Group3, including FTO this season & has since run well in three top Group1's, including LTO when beaten uder 4l in the Arc.
Will have liked the cut that day & has his conditions to suit today.

Ask is well clear in the earnings & Fancied/Class columns but misses out in the other two, as though been running in a class way above this.
A race to leave alone for me.

I'm going to run the rule over some of the Breeder's Cup races so the Fat Lady may be back for an encore later, we'll see.

I've been looking at the results & breaking them down into distance, class & number of shortlisted horses. I'll be doing a review of this & the reason, probably next weekend.

Rio.

[whoneedsrio]

Done all the main races on the card apart from the 2yo events.

Marathon
12f aw
3yo+

Delightful Kiss & Sixties Icon have 4stars.

I can never seem to get it right with Sixties Icon, don't know why, anyway he's not one to back at short odds for me. His form tailed off after a good start last season & it looked a similar story this year after he was stone last at the Royal meeting. The stable was off colour then & he's won three Group3's since then but they were not the strongest races. Having had to travel after a long season & on his first go at the artificial surface he makes no appeal at around 2's.
Delightful Kiss on the other hand has aw form & has won his last two on such a surface. Strange that he's done all his running over 9f or less apart from two runs back when winning a Group3 over this trip on the polytrack at Turfway where he stayed on well. Not many class races over this distance in the US & maybe he is suited by this test.
He's worth a small bet at the price.

Bet.
Delightful Kiss 20pts @ 8.8 Betfair.

Turf Sprint
6.5f
3yo+

True to Tradition has 3stars.

Or does he?
According the form on the Racing Post site he's only had five starts, however spotlight says he's lost nine times out of claiming company at the major US tracks!
Looks to me like a race to watch.

Dirt Mile
8f
3yo+

Nothing has the required 3star minimum, no bet.

Breeders Cup Mile
8f Turf Grade1
3yo+

Kip Deville & Goldikova have 4 stars.

Kip Deville won this last year at Monmouth, loves the fast ground & is two from two over C&D.
Goldikova has done nothing but improve but usually needs a strong pace on which is not certain here. Yet to race on faster than good & is another too short to back.

Bet.
Kip Deville 25pts @ 9/2 Betfred.

Sprint
6f aw Grade1
3yo+

Street Boss has 4stars
Fabulous Strike & Fatal Bullet have 3stars.

Street Boss is a hold up horse who came late from stall 1 here LTO but just couldn't get to Cost of Freedom who also goes here. Before that won at this Grade twice & surely will keep that one in his sights here.
Fabulous Strike is a front runner who's form is on dirt & this surface is not as suited to that style of running.
Fatal Bullet is another that blazes away from the front & won a Grade3 by nearly 8l LTO. Up in class here & not likely to get it all his own way up front.

Street Boss can sit in behind while the others cut each others throats up front.

Bet.
Street Boss 30pts @ 4.7 Betfair.

Breeders Cup Turf
12f Grade1
3yo+

Conduit has 4stars
Soldier of Fortune & Grand Couturier have 3stars.

Conduit improved out of handicap company, winning a good race at Epsom on Derby day coming from miles back. Then looked a bit one paced when allowing Campanologist too much rope in front at Ascot. Made hard work of the Gordan Stakes after before winning the St Leger in good style LTO on soft. Might find this a bit fast & the short straight won't suit.
Soldier of Fortune looked to be laid out for the Arc where he came third. All his best form on ground slower than this & seems to lack a turn of foot.
Grand Corturier has good turf form at this distance but is another who might like a bit of juice.
Not a race to go mad at but at the price Grand Corturier is worth a small punt.

Bet.
Grand Corturier 20pts @ 7.6 Betfair.

Classic
10f aw Grade1
3yo+

Curlin has 4stars.

Just a doubt he's not as good since he came off steroids but this is his trip & he's a proven battler as much as a class act.
Looks to me as if Duke of Marmalade has had enough for the season.
Not sure about Henrythenavigator, if they dawdle round he could do them for pace in the straight, if he handles the surface.
Suddenly after been ridden to get a mile all season until his last two starts where he raced much closer to the pace, Raven's Pass wil now get 10f!
Can't believe they're not going for the Turf Mile on fast ground. I also can't believe that Jimmy Fortune gave up the ride, he's been jocked off by the owners husband for me.

Bet.
Curlin 50pts @ 5/2 Betfred.

Just watched Buccellati win the St Simon.

Rio.

[whoneedsrio]

There were 21 qualifying races in October, one had no selection & the winner was shortlisted 13 times from the other 20 races (65%)

There were 14 4star selelections, 6 of these won (43%) at, 8/1, 6/4, 13/8, 6/5, 9/4 &7/2.
1pt on each returned 24.07pts at SP, a profit of 10.07pts.

With the 20/20 vision of hindsight I should have left the Breeders cup races alone, I don't think the form was there in full for some races & I've never done well when betting on that meeting. There was still a small profit on the Month though, despite having only 2 winners from 12 bets, stakes of 380pts returned 402.3pts +22.3pts.

For the season the winner was shortlisted 72 times from 124 races (58%)

There were 36 4star winners from 95 selections (38%) These showed a profit of 11.66pts to a 1pt level stake, +12% on outlay.

Actual bets
Wins/Runs 15/60 (25%)
Stakes 2395pts
Returns 2754.91pts
Profit/Loss +359.91pts

The profit on turnover was +15%
However this was from turning over the starting bank of 1000pts near enough 2.4 times.
The actual starting bank grew from 1000pts to 1359.91pts which is a yield of near enough 36%
At the start of the season I would have been more than satisfied with this position, however after the good start I am just a touch disappointed.

At this point the bank is reset to 1000 but it's actual value stays the same until you reach your required operating level.
As an example a 1000pt bank at 10p a point would be £100 & the average 30pt stake would be £3.
The new bank would be £136 & at 1000pts this is 13.6p per point so a 30pt bet is £4.08.
Should a similar return 0f +36% be achieved the bank would then grow to near enough £185.
You continue this way until you get to where you are comfortable with your staking level or you reach your "Choke point" which is you maximum bet.
I have bet this way for many years & it works for me.

So did I achieve what I set out to do?
I think so, every race was posted before the off time except for those
in August when I was on holiday & the two at York in May which due to me working nights got lost.

I have broken down the returns further.

Firstly class, this seemed to make little difference as all 3 levels, Group1, 2 & 3 were all within a pertcentage point or two of the overall 58%.

Distance.
I split this down to seven groupings, 5/6f, 7f, 8f, 9/10f, 12f, 14f & 16f+
There were only 6 races at the 14f distance & only two winners but this is a small sample.
By far the worst results were at the sprint distances of 5/6f where there were only 4 winners from 17 events (24%) I tend to put this down to the narrow class level at these distances between handicaps & Group races.
The best 2 groups were at the specialist trip of 7f with 9 wins from 14 (64%) & even better with 7 from 10 (70%) at 16f+

Lastly I looked at the races with just one on the shortlist.
There were 33 of these & there were 14 winners (42%)
1pt on each would have returned 47.99pts for a profit of 14.99pts +45% on outlay. My conclusion here is this would look to be the route to take rather than the 4star horses if trying to produce a "pure system"

Phew, thats it then 7 Months has shot past.
Thanks to all for their input.

I have though used this method over the jumps & I intend to continue through this Winter. I won't though be as rigid with the qualifying races, a lot of the better NH races are handicaps & I'll be dipping in & out a bit more.

All the best,
Rio.

[whoneedsrio]

I don't like the look of the Charlie Hall Chase so I'm just going with the big handicap at Ascot.
Theres an extra category for handicaps which is the Racing Post ratings, a qualifyer needs a minmum of 4stars for these.

United House Gold Cup
3m Handicap Chase.

Air Force One has 5stars

Air Force One had a good season has a novice & if he is to go to the higher levels in the game would need to run well here.
Gets the trip & goes on the ground. Five of his six wins have come when going right handed like today & the other was at the figure of eight Fontwell which is therefore left & right Handed. Only a 6yo so open to plenty of improvement he gets in off a decent mark & the stable is in fair form.
He's worth a punt.

Bet.
Air Force One 40pts @ 11/4 Sportingbet.

Rio.

[whoneedsrio]

Air Force One ran a good race in second. His trainer said that he would come on for the run, one of the pitfalls of playing early.

Bets.
0/1
Stakes 40pts
Returns 0pts
Profit/Loss -40pts

Paddy Power Gold Cup
2m 4.5f handicap chase

Nothing has the minimum 4stars. in fact nothing has more than 2stars.
So why bother posting?
Sometimes this method shows just how tough a race is & having spent 20-25 minutes on the race doing the working out I have now passed it over & will waste no more time on it.

Rio.