The Curse of the Flying Dutchman

[whoneedsrio]

Originally Posted by Bails

This is a really excellent thread Rio. I've not joined you for any of your recommended bets - I just like reading the analyses of someone disciplined and thoughtful. Long may it continue mate.

Many thanks, much appreciated.

I've worked out the races missed just to keep the stats for the season.

Rose of Lancaster
10.5f Group3
3yo+

Multidimensional had 4stars (winner)
Smokey Oakey had 3stars.

Sovereign Stakes
8f Group3
3yo+

Third Set had 4stars
Redford & Laa Rayb had 3stars

Ordnance Row the unlisted winner.

Geoffrey Freer
15.5f Group3
3yo+

Sixties Icon (winner) Geordieland, Easten Anthem & peppertree Lane all had 3stars.

Hungerford Stakes
7f Group2
3yo+

Paco Boy had 4stars (winner)
Il Warrd had 3stars.

Yorkshire Oaks
12f Group1
3yo+

Lush Lashes had 4stars (winner)
Passage of Time had 3stars

Nunthorpe
5f Group1
2yo+

Percolator had 3stars.

Borderlescott unlisted winner

Winter Hill stakes
10f Group3
3yo+

Silver Pivotal had 4stars
Gulf Express had 3stars

Stotsfold unlisted winner.

Judmonte International
10f Group1
3yo+

New Approach had 4stars
Duke of Marmalade (winner) & Phoenix Tower had 3stars.

Great Voltigeur
12f Group2
3yo C&G

Patkai had 4stars
Top lock & Meydan City had 3stars

Centennial unlisted winner.

Celebration Mile
8f Group2
3yo+

Ravens Pass (winner) had 4stars
Bankable & Third Set had 3stars


In August there were 13 qualifying races & the winner was shortlisted 8 times (61.5%)
There were 5 4star winners from 11 selections at 100/30, 2/1, 6/5, evs & 1/2. one point on each returned 13.03pts for a small profit of 2.03pts.

Actual bets there were just the two, Red Dune & Lush Lashes
for a loss of 130pts.

The Season so far.

From 87 qualifying races the winner was shortlisted 52 times (60%)

There have been 64 4star selections, 26 have won for a profit of 9.04pts to 1pt level stakes.

Actual bets
Wins/Runs 11/40
Stakes 1725pts
Returns 2074.45pts
Profit/Loss +349.45pts

A quiet month with my holiday.
The next race looks to be at Goodwood on Tuesday.

Rio.

[whoneedsrio]

Supreme Stakes
7f Group3
3yo+

Royal Vintage & Sharp Nephew have 4stars each.

Royal Vintage is well clear in the earnings & fancied/class categories due to some smart form at Nad al Sheba early in the year. Goes on turf as well as dirt having won on soft in South Africa as well & goes fresh. Looks the one to beat.
Sharp Nephew's only defeat in four starts came on soft in the Royal Lodge & even if he handles the going he has a bit to find on form so far.

Of the rest.
A few thats been around the block including Welsh Emperor who if allowed a soft lead on ground with the more cut the better could run well but looks to be getting a bit long in the tooth now.
Appalachian Trail usually finds this class beyond him & Beaver Patrol is better at 6f.
Hitchens has been running in top handicaps & at 3yo is still open to improvement but is another who wouldn't want it too soft.

With no bookies pricing this up the exchanges have Royal Vintage at slightly better than evens which doesn't temp & the race is a leave alone.

Rio.

[whoneedsrio]

With more of the wet stuff falling as this fantastic summer continues there were three more non-runners added to the one from overnight including both the sortlisted pair.
Even with a new shortlist the winner would not have been trapped.
If this weather continues then from a betting angle I'm likely to pack up for the season, if the this is the future the God help us.
Hopefully it'll dry up a bit for the weekend with some good racing in prospect at the top level both here & in Ireland

Rio.

[whoneedsrio]

Theres nothing worse than putting in the work on races & then finding them changed by non-runners or being called off.
Fortunately I was pretty sure Haydock would be off & I've done the basics for the two Irish Group1's Which may be run tomorrow but I'm pretty sure Duke of Marmalade won't run & maybe others too.
That means we're left with Kempton today then.

September Stakes
12f Group3
3yo+

Galactic Star has 3stars.

Galactic Star looked progressive last season moving up to a listed win after taking two decent handicaps. Run ended with a defeat at Group3 level but that was on soft.
Returned this seaon with a good third to Getaway at Newmarket & then got lost in the soft at Chantilly. Finished best of all LTO at Goodwood when second to Sixties Icon having looked to be given a lot to do.
Yet to run on this surface but this looks a good chance to land a Group prize here.

Of the rest.
Blue Monday won the Cambridgeshire three years ago & this is his second run back from Oz, could get a place.
Many Volumes has won here but has a bit to find for me.
The one I'd be wary of is Mourilyan who has some fair form at Nad al Sheba & runs for the first time here for his new trainer, be interesting to see the route this one takes whatever the outcome today.

Galactic Star is worth a bet.

Bet.
Galactic Star 40pts @ 4/1 Blue Sq.

Rio.

[whoneedsrio]

Despite being well backed Galatic Star was a rather disappointing sixth.

Actual bets
Wins/Runs 11/41
Stakes 1765pts
Returns 2074.45pts
Profit/Loss +309.45pts

It seems that Leopardstown goes ahead but there must be some doubtful runners.

Matron Stakes
8f Group1
3yo+ F&M

Halfway to Heaven, Listen & Lush Lashes all have 4stars.

Doubts about the ground, team tactics & the muppet on Lush Lashes, leave alone.

Irish Champion Stakes
10f Group1
3yo+

Duke of Marmalade has 4stars
New Approach has 3stars

Doubts about the ground, team tactics & the muppet on New Approach, leave alone.

Prix du Moulin
8f Group1
3yo+

Henrythenavigator has 4stars
Natagora has 3stars

Doubts about the ground, team tactics & the muppet on, oh hang on he's not here is he.

Actually this is a seriously good horse race.

The only two times HTN has been defeated is on ground with cut, he might not even run.
I think others may have progressed past Natagora now, notably Goldikova & Paco Boy who I'm very tempted by.
However I'm just going to watch this one as well.

Rio.

[whoneedsrio]

Park Hill Stakes
14.5f Group2
3yo+ F&M

Gravitation has 4stars
Allegretto has 3stars

Gravitation was unraced at 2yo & has improved for each run this season with a win in a Goodwood Group3 on her last start over just shy of this trip. She ran well in a Listed event at Newmarket on soft ground the time before that so she should have no trouble with the going.

Allegretto has three wins at this level & also one at Group1 when she won the Prix Royal-Oak on her last start in 07.
She has form with cut but was last on her return at Sandown on soft but she usually needs a run under her belt.
Highly tried after that with runs in the Gold Cup & Yorkshire Oaks the latter 20 days ago which should have her spot on for this easier race.

Of the rest.
Gull Wing has soft/heavy form but needs to find quite a bit to figure here.
Under the Rainbow has been last on her last two starts & has not won since her 2yo days.
O'Brien sends two but they look two of his lesser lights.
Presbyterian Nun doesn't look good enough & Queen of Naples is held by Gravitation from the Goodwood race.

Gravitation is the improver but Allegretto has the form in the book & is worth a bet.

bet.
Allegretto 50pts @ 2/1 Blue Sq.

Rio.

[whoneedsrio]

A good win from Allegretto who went clear at the 2f pole.

Actual bets
Wins/Runs 12/42
Stakes 1815pts
Returns 2224.45pts
Profit/Loss +409.45pts

Doncaster Cup
18f Group2
3yo+

Honolulu has 4stars

Honolulu has some smart form including an Ebor second & a St Leger third.
Good win at Royal Ascot in the 2m 6f Queen Alexandra two runs back but was then a bit disappointing in the Goodwood Cup behind Yeats but not the only one to be given an iffy ride that day.
Goes on soft & clearly stays & Murtagh rides here so looks the one to beat.

Of the rest.
Royal and Regal looked a stayer going places but got mugged by that old dog Geordieland in the Yorkshire Cup & then should have won at Sandown in a muddling race. Had a break & was only seven of ten in France 19 days ago. Looks to need things to fall right for him.
Sagara looks another of those less than inspired Godolphin buys & Sanbuch needs to improve having been beaten at Listed level when stepping up from handicaps.
Finalmente has a pen for winning the Henry II.
Baddam, Bulwark, Balkan Knight & Carte Diamond have all been round the block & are not open to improvement.
Juniper Girl likes it soft/heavy but only returned this season 8 days ago & ran only fair, just as likely to bounce as improve for that.

Honolulu is not straightforward but should be able to take care of these.

Bet.
Honolulu 40pts @ 3.65 Betfair.

Rio.

[Kamo]

Well done today with Allegreto mate great system keep up the good work and good luck for tomorrow

[whoneedsrio]

Originally Posted by Kamo

Well done today with Allegreto mate great system keep up the good work and good luck for tomorrow

Many thanks.

Honolulu lands the Doncaster Cup but there were three non-runners which took a little bit off the returns.
40pts staked returned 128.16pts, up 88.16pts.

Actual bets
Wins/Runs 13/43
Stakes 1855pts
Returns 2352.61pts
Profit/Loss +497.61pts

Sprint Cup
6f Group1
3yo+

Equiano & Ancien Regime have 3stars

More thoughts on these sprints as the season ends & I've had along day with work again tomorrow

However Ancien Regime, who was not in at Haydock last week is a big price on the exchanges & is worth a few bob.

Bet.
Ancien Regime 10pts @ 25.0 Betfair.

Park Stakes
7f Group2
3yo+

Major Cadeaux & Laa Rayb have 4stars
Passenger has 3stars

This looks between Major Cadeaux who has done me a couple of good turns & does have some soft ground form & La Rayb who is on the upgrade but may prefer it faster.

At the odds I'm sitting this one out.

Irish St Leger
14f Group1
3yo+

Septimus has 4stars
Hasanka has 3stars

Hard to see past Septimus here but at a best priced 4/9 this is a no bet race.

St Leger
14.5f Group1
3yo C&F

Look Here & Unsung Heroine have 3stars.

These two have only five runs between them.
Look Here has the best form from her impressive Oaks win & she has form with cut when beating Doctor Freemantle on her sole 2yo start.
Shes bred for this trip & Oaks winners have a good record here, she can be a dual classic winner.

Bet.
Look Here 50pts @ 4/1 Blue Sq.

Rio.

[whoneedsrio]

No return from today but both ran good races in defeat.
Nice to see Stoutey fill one of the few bits missing on the old CV.

Actual bets
Wins/Runs 13/45
Stakes 1915pts
Returns 2352.61pts
Profit/Loss +437.61pts

Select Stakes
10f Group3
3yo+

Lady Deauville has 4stars
Bankable has 3stars

To be honest I've been working & I'm cream-crackered & I just can't be bothered to go any further with this that the bare working out cos I've got to get up & do it all again in the morning.
theres only the exchanges betting anyway & I'm happy enough to leave alone.

On a slightly different note this is always a watershed day for me, like the old saying goes "Winter arrives on the back of the last horse to finish in the St Leger" & thats not far wrong.
It would be nice if the bloody Summer had arrived in the first place though!

Rio.

[whoneedsrio]

Dubai Duty Free Arc Trial
11f Group3
3yo+

Multidimensional has 3stars

A rather grand title for not the strongest Group3.

Multidimensional has some decent form & goes with cut in the ground but this is an odd looking race with four other runners with 2stars.
Spanish Moon & Staying On have theirs in the F/F & % columns, which means their on the upgrade but have yet to do it at this sort of level.
Regime & Sushisan have 2stars in Earnings & F/C, which means they've been at a higher class but current form could mean they're on the downgrade.
The same could be said of Blue Monday & with Multidimensional at a best price of just 5/4 there are enough ifs & buts to make this a leave alone race.

Rio.

[whoneedsrio]

5f Group3
3yo+

Galeota has 4stars.
Look Busy has 3stars.

The most progressive one would seem to be the 3yo Look Busy who two runs back landed a Curragh Group3 & drops back to the trip over which she is best having just been held over 6f in a Listed event at Chester LTO.
No problem with the ground & she should go well.
Galeota was sent to stud but must have had problems, best run since return LTO at Doncaster but this looks a little harder.

Not a race to go mad at but Look Busy is worth a bet.

Bet.
Look Busy 30pts @ 13/3 Bet365.

Rio.

[whoneedsrio]

The last bet Look Busy ran well enough & was in front till quite close home & was beaten less than a length in fourth.
That should read 13/2 in the bet by the way.

Actual bets
Wins/Runs 13/46
Stakes 1945pts
Returns 2352.61pts
Profit/Loss +407.61pts

Queen Elizabeth II
8f Group1
3yo+

Henrythenavigator & Tamayuz have 4stars.
Ravens Pass has 3stars.

Much is been made about the ground affecting the chances of the main players here.
HTN's three defeats have all come with soft in the going discription, including LTO in France in the Prix du Moulin. It's interesting though that Timeform think that the time for that race shows that the going was no worse than good & if it had have been that soft would they have let him run?
It's more than possible that Henry's begining to feel the effects of the season, he's been made to work quite hard for his wins in the St James's Palace & the Sussex Stakes & it could be his form is just tailing off.
Tamayuz on the other hand still seems to be improving & two runs back beat Ravens Pass further than HTN did when winning the two races mentioned above. LTO in the Jacques le Marois he beat Major Cadeux in third by more than Henry beat that one in the Sussex.
Last night the Racing Post had the going as good to firm but now they have it as good, however it's usually faster in the straight since they re-laided the track.
Tamayuz has yet to race on faster than good but theres no reason why he shouldn't handle it if it is on the fast side today.
Ravens Pass has been held up in most starts to make sure he gets the mile. This has given first run to his rivals & they must surely run closer to the pace if he is to turn the form round today. LTO he made all in a Group2 at Goodwood but that was against a bunch of handicappers stepping up in class.

I'll take Tamayuz here.

Bet.
Tamayuz 50pts @ 11/5 Sporting odds.
Sporting Odds are refunding bets at Ascot today if your second beaten a neck or less.

Rio.

[whoneedsrio]

A most disappointing run from Tamayuz yesterday, he folded up early in the straight with no apparent excuse as yet forthcoming.
Mutterings about the loose ground not suiting Henry & they did water on Thursday but I still think he's just about had enough for the season.

Actual bets
Wins/Runs 13/47
Stakes 1995pts
Returns 2352.61pts
Profit/Loss +357.61pts

Cumberland Lodge
12f Group3
3yo+

Sixties Icon, Galactic Star & Sugar Ray all have 4stars.

A weak Group3 with only five runners.
Of these Sugar Ray looks the one likely to make the running but theres every chance it could be run at a false pace. He would need to improve to beat Sixties Icon who has the best form but carries a 3lb pen & Galactic Star who disappointed at Kempton LTO.

A leave alone race.

Diadem Stakes
6f Group2
3yo+

Lesson in Humility has 3stars.

Lesson in Humility has form on all going & this seems to be her trip. Won three of her last four & looks most progressive winning a valuable York handicap two runs back & then a Goodwood LIsted event. Some of her beaten form last backend & early this season reads quite well too with decent runs behind the likes of Fat Boy, Captain Gerard & Corrybrough, the draw looks ok too.

Of the rest.
A lot of sprints these days contain the usual suspects, at least below Group1 level. Those that have been around the block a few times & handicappers stepping up in class trying to bag a Group prize.
The two that look the other progressive sorts are Edge Closer & Sir Gerry.
Edge Closer has won two at Listed level this season, beating some of these in the process but has also been behind some of the same rivals as well.
Sir Gerry looked to be going places early this year with a Listed win FTO & good thirds in France & here in the Golden Jubilee. Last in the July Cup when last out but has had three runs at Newmarket & all were poor so maybe he just doesn't like that track.

Not a race to go mad at but Lesson in Humility is going the right way & is a big price at Sporting Odds as she is generally around 10/1 & short as 8's with Coral.

Bet.
Lesson in Humility 20pts @ 16/1 Sporting Odds.

Rio.

[whoneedsrio]

A decent run for the money from the last bet to be not beaten that far.

Actual bets
Wins/Runs 13/48
Stakes 2015pts
Returns 2352.61pts
Profit/Loss +337.61pts

Joel Stakes
8f Group3
3yo+

Eagle Mountain has 3stars.

Eagle Mountain runs for the first time since leaving Ballydoyle & has been off for nearly a year.
Not beaten far in last years 2000 Guineas & then was 5 lengths second to Authorized in the Derby & 9 lengths third in the Irish Derby. Unseated Fallon in France & then was second at York in a Group2 before landing a Curragh four runner Group2. Best run when last seen in the Champion Stakes here, going down by a short head.
All this form is miles better than anything else here has shown so far, however drops back in trip here with last six starts at 10/12f & most runs have been on good or softer. Add to this the late return this season & there are a few question marks.

Of the rest.
Bankable rattled of four straight wins from maiden through minor handicaps to Listed class last backend/start of this season but then only ran fifth when 13/8 for the Royal Hunt Cup. Been turned over when well fancied since including LTO in a Goodwood Group3 at 8/13.
Most of the rest have lots to find on known form although Stubbs Art ran good races in the English & Irish 2000's, not so good last twice though.

I could go with Eagle Mountain here but I'd like to have a look at him on the box first, so I'm hanging fire for now having just finished a night shift. Not working tonight though so I'll be up & about for the racing.

Rio.

[whoneedsrio]

I'm no paddock judge but Eagle Mountain looks ok & is a big price for one with that level of form & is worth a bet.

Bet.
Eagle Mountain 30pts @ 8.8 Betfair.

Rio.

[Kamo]

Well done Rio not a bad paddock judge i`d say after that pick

[whoneedsrio]

There were 17 qualifying races in September & the winner was shortlisted 7 times (41%)
4 winners at 9/4, 15/8, 1/3 & 11/10 from 17 4star horses would have returned 9.55pts at a level 1pt stake for a loss of 7.45pts.

This is the worst Months returns so far.

On the actual bets front stakes of 290pts returned 278.16pts for a small loss of 11.84pts.

Overall

59 shortlisted winners from 104 races (57%)

30 winners from 81 4star horses with a tiny profit of 1.59pts

Actual bets
Wins/Runs 13/48
Stakes 2015pts
Returns 2352.61pts
Profit/Loss +337.61pts

Rio.

[whoneedsrio]

Originally Posted by Kamo

Well done Rio not a bad paddock judge i`d say after that pick

Don't know about that but a most welcome winner, just got the better odds too as it was backed in near the off.
30pts staked returned 252.3pts after deductions.

Actual bets
Wins/Runs 14/49
Stakes 2045pts
Returns 2604.91pts
Profit/Loss +559.91pts

Sun Chariot Stakes
8f Group1
3yo+ F&M

Halfway to Heaven has 4stars.
Darjina has 3stars.

Halfway to Heaven won a scrappy looking Irish 1000 Guineas three runs back & then was handed the Nassau at Goodwood by the ride on the runner up Lush Lashes.
That form was turned round over this trip in the Matron Stakes LTO where another of todays runners Nahoodh was in between the pair.

Darjina has five seconds from has many starts this season but those runs had slightly better opposition against her or a bit too much juice in the ground. This is her best chance to return to winning ways here but at a best price of 7/4 I'm not betting.

Prix de la Foret
7f Group1
3yo+

Paco Boy has 4stars
African Rose has 3stars

Paco Boy is 4 from 4 at this trip & drops back from the mile of his last run where he was a good third in the Moulin behind the much improved Goldikova, ground should be no problem either.

African Rose won the re-routed Sprint Cup at Doncaster LTO, getting up close home. Before that was a good second to Marchand D'Or over 7f at Deauville & has been running 7/8f till that last run.

Of the rest.
Welsh Emperor looks past his best.
US Ranger runs more bad races than good ones.
Natagora looks to have lost her way a bit after a hard season & the others don't look up to this level.

Paco Boy looks worth a bet & is a general 2/1. However I'm hanging on for a look at the Pari-muteul odds as one of ours going over there can sometimes start a bit longer on the French tote.

Prix du Cadran
20f Group1
4yo+

Yeats has 4stars.
Bannaby has 3stars.

Yeats should win this pulling a cart if he's anything near his best.

Bannaby has been winning races at Listed level in France & Spain & was second in a Group3 here LTO when Kasbah Bliss got first run on him while he was having traffic problems.

No bet at the odds.

Rio.

[whoneedsrio]

Taken the odds at VCbet seeing as the BBC can't get round to giving out the odds.

Bet.
Paco Boy 50pts @ 2/1 VCbet.

Rio.