The Curse of the Flying Dutchman

[whoneedsrio]

As expected Darjina did not run.
Infallible ran a good race to finish second & I still think she would be better over 7f but as her trainer said pre race there are no Group1/2 7f fillies races to aim her at.

The going has been changed twice today, from good to good to soft & now to soft. It's expected to be dry but cloudy tomorrow so it should be riding quite soft.

Princess of Wales Stakes
12f Group2
3yo+

Anna Pavola has 4stars.

The softer the better for Anna Pavola, she is six from seven when the official going has been soft or heavy, with the other run a second when trying to give the usefull Peppertree Lane 7lb in a 8f York handicap. She's also four from five at this trip with the only defeat in the Coronation Cup last month on good ground & on a quirky track. Bolted up at this level only last Saturday in the Lancashire Oaks & has run well in races close together in the past.
Carries a 3lb pen for that win but with her optimum conditions she can overcome that.

Of the rest.
Lucarno has a 5lb Group1 pen for his St Leger win & like most of these would need faster ground, two starts this year leave him quite a bit to find.
Galactic Star improved through handicaps & Listed class last season but was beaten on soft in the St Simon at Group3 on his last run of the season. First run this year looked ok behind Getaway at Newmaket but then last of eight on soft in France LTO.
Gulf Express doesn't look good enough on form so far.
Halicarnassus looks to need faster ground.
Happy Boy has some soft ground form but has not shown much in two starts in this Country.
Lion Sands is another who looks to need it fast & needs to improve at this level.
Papal Bull is by Montjeu who went on soft but both runs on g/s have seen him well beaten. Did win this last year & ran quite well on his return in the Coronation Cup where he had Anna Pavlova behind on the good ground. Not straightforward & just as likely to run a stinker as run well.
Petara Bay is another who needs to improve & seems to prefer it faster.
If Sagara ran up to the form of his Arc third last October he'd go close but take that run out & the rest of his form doesn't look up to much. Two poor runs for Godolphin this season & another with a mind of his own as he's been gelded.
Shahin is another who seems to need it quicker.

Anna Pavlova has her ground & trip & is bang in form & must go well here.

Bet.
Anna Pavlova 60pts @ 5/2 Blue Sq.

Rio.

[whoneedsrio]

A most disappointing day yesterday with Anna Pavlova last of the remaining six runners with five not facing the starter. One assumes they were pulled out due to the soft ground but the going was changed back to g/s after the first & is reported as good for today but with rain forcast.
Jimmy Fortune rode a fine race from the front & had a soft lead, to be fair to Anna Pavlova's jockey he had her in second to cover this but she needs covering up really.

Actual bets
Wins/Runs 10/35
Stakes 1495pts
Returns 1874.45pts
Profit/Loss +379.45pts

July Cup
6f Group1
3yo+

Nothing has the required 3stars.

With the doubts about the ground & the fact that even the top sprinters seem to be taking turns to beat each other added to my somewhat fragile confidence it's almost a relief that nothing is selected for this race.

Summer Stakes
6f Group3
3yo+ F&M

Cartimandua has 4stars

If the weather in York is owt like it is here in West Yorkshire then it's getting softer by the minute on the Knavesmire.

Cartimandua looked most progressive dropped back to this trip last season after not been disgraced in the 1000 Guineas. injured a knee last June but returned to win a Listed race at Nottingham in May. Length & a half third in a Leopardstown Group3 on her last start where the ground was officially good to firm but in the race report described it as rain softened going so a big doubt about the ground today.

Most of these make little appeal apart from the French raider San Sicharia who has some soft ground form but has been racing over mainly 8f although she did win dropped back to 7f LTO. She could be worth a small interest at a double figure price.
The only other one is Spinning Lucy who like Cartimandua ran in the 1000 Guineas this season & now drops back to this trip over which she won her maiden & a Listed contest last backend. All her racing though has been on faster than today.

I may have a bet here when I see more on the going on C4.

Rio.

[whoneedsrio]

Summer, bah humbug.
Ended up heavy at York yesterday so no financial interest.
Non today either with more rain around & just the one Group race at Ascot.

Summer Mile
8f Group2
4yo+

Ramonti & Elusive Warning have 4stars
Archipenko has 3stars

Doubts about Ramonti on his first start this term after injury & Elusive Warning on his first go on turf coupled with their stable not exactly pulling up trees, at this level anyway.
Archipenko is an O'Brien cast off with figures scewed by big returns from races at Nad al Sheba & Sha Tin & looked nowt special on tuf last season.

Of the rest only Cesare looks up to this having won this last year & has good course form, although not really at this level.
Now if someone were to offer a decent price (2-3/1) that Spencer cocks it up somehow then I might be interested, but 13/8 to win!!
Working last night & I'm off to bed
Back tomorrow where we have the prospect of a three times run maiden starting favourite for the Irish Oaks

Rio.

[whoneedsrio]

Having rated the Irish Oaks nothing has the required minimum of 3stars, therefore no bet.

Rio.

[whoneedsrio]

A quiet period with little in the way of qualifying races.

Hackwood Stakes
6f Group3
3yo+

Balthazaar's Gift & Corrybrough both have 3stars.

Balthazaar's Gift is the classiest of the older ones & has won at Group2 level although that didn't look the strongest race for the grade. Also won at Listed & Group3 & he ought to go well here, all wins on good to soft & the ground should suit.
Corrybrough is most progressive & has won on all ground. LTO won a Listed race at Sandown coming from the back with a strong run to win going away, that was over 5f & has won at 6f & looks more his trip.
High hopes from connections for this one & if he's going to the top would have to beat this lot.

Of the rest.
Beckermet usually finds one or two too good at this level.
Wi Dud doesn't seem to have gone on from his 2yo form.
The rest look a bunch of handicappers apart from the other 3yo Strike the Deal who has some smart 2yo form at this trip & drops back to 6f after trying a mile in the 2000 Guineas & 7f in the Jersey. Stable in form & he could go well here.

With Corrybrough at around 11/10 he's a no bet but I'm tempted by Strike the Deal who looks a bit of value at 7/1 & is worth a bet to upset the shortlisted ones.

Bet.
Strike the Deal 30pts @ 7/1 Bet365.

Rio.

[whoneedsrio]

Nothing from the last bet.

Actual bets
Wins/Runs 10/36
Stakes 1525pts
Returns 1874.45pts
Profit/Loss +349.45pts

York Stakes
10.5f Group2
3yo+

Tajaweed has 4stars
Pipedreamer & Campanologist have 3stars

Tajaweed looked a progressive sort when winning the Dee stakes on his seasonal return & then ran ok in the Derby when eighth & appearing not to stay. Drops back in trip here & can use his good turn of foot here.
Pipedreamer & Campanologist are closely matched on Eclipse form & much depends if the the latter gets a soft lead in which case he might just do enough in front.

I'll go with Tajaweed here.

Bet.
Tajaweed 50pts @ 3/1 Sportingbet.

King George
12f Group1
3yo+

Duke of Marmalade & Youmzain have 3stars.

A tactical affair with Youmzain needing to come off a strong gallop which he ought to get from the O'Brien team.
Duke of Mamalade looked impressive at Royal Ascot, tries this trip for the first time & should stay. Looks the one to beat but no bet at the price.

Rio.

[whoneedsrio]

Tajaaweed was disappointing on Saturday, unable to quicken from 3f out he perhaps found the going too firm.

Actual bets
Wins/Runs 10/37
Stakes 1575pts
Returns 1874.45pts
Profit/Loss +299.45pts

Gordon Stakes
12f Group3
3yo's

Hebridean & Conduit both have 4stars.

Hebridean was last of nine in the King Edward VII at the Royal meeting when Conduit was second. Before that had landed a Group3 at the Curragh for which he has a 3lb pen. Better than his last run but a bit to find.
Conduit stepped up to that Ascot race at Group2 level after coming from a long way back 3f out in a valuable Epsom handicap in June. Trip should suit but lack of a proper front runner here could mean a muddling race & at odds on no bet.

Betfair Cup
7f Group2
3yo+

Paco Boy & Infallible both have 4stars.

Paco Boy improved through the classes to land a fourtimer, the last two being a Listed event at Lingfield on the aw in March & then the Group3 Greenham Stakes at Newbury on soft by a cosy 3/4l.
Then went to France for their 2000 Guineas & ran a decent race in seventh, beaten just over 5l after having not much room 2f out. Had a nice break to freshen him up & drop back to 7f should suit. Goes on any ground & still open to improvement.
Infallible drops back to 7f after looking to not quite get home over a mile on her last three starts. Took the Nell Gwyn in good style over this trip FTO & she would look the one to beat on form, however she has had four tough starts this term & is quite a short price.

Of the rest.
Arabian Gleam has a Group2 pen.
Al Qasi might find this ground a bit fast.
Dunelight was third in this last year & needs a bit more.
Form of Racer Forever & King of Dixie in a small field Group3 is hard to weigh up but likely stronger pace will suit King of Dixie better.
Il Warrd was behind Paco Boy in France but ran better at Ascot.
Stimulation was behind Il Warrd at Ascot.

Likely to be a decent pace on here & the frontrunners could set this up for a hold up type like Paco Boy.
He has a bit to find on form with Infallible but is a fair price for one still open to improvement.

Bet.
Paco Boy 20pts @ 9/1 Blue Sq.

Rio.

[jtw1]

PACO BOY wins another nice winner RIO .

Great thread mate

[frankie]

Well done! Very nice price

[whoneedsrio]

Originally Posted by jtw1

PACO BOY wins another nice winner RIO .

Great thread mate

Thank you, needed that a bit though after a thin time of late.
20pt stake returns 200pts.

Actual bets
Wins/Runs 11/38
Stakes 1595pts
Returns 2074.45pts
Profit/Loss +479.45pts

Sussex Stakes
8f Group1
3yo+

Henrythenavigator has 4stars.
Major Cadeaux has 3stars.

HTN has carried all before him this season winning the English & Irish Guineas & the St James's Palace & ought to take this unless it rains & the ground turns against him or he doesn't handle the track which is quirky but not as bad as some.
Major Cadeaux has done well this season winning at Group2/3 level but has been beaten on both tries at Group1 & needs to find quite a bit more to take this.

A no bet race for me.

Rio.

[whoneedsrio]

Running late today.

Lillie Langtry Stakes
14f Group3
3yo+ F&M

Hi Calypso has 4stars.
Folk Opera has 3stars.

Hi Calypso won this last year when looking most progressive. Won a Group2 at Doncaster after but was last of nine on season return at Royal Ascot when always at the back. Group2 pen doesn't help either.
Folk Opera should get the trip but would seem to need it fast & with the track watered & rain forcast I'm inclined to watch this race to gauge the going.

King George Stakes
5f Group3
3yo+

Befortyfour has 3stars.

The missing star for Befortyfour is in the earnings category & he takes a big jump in class here. However the track should suit his front running style & this doesn't look the strongest Group3.
Dandyman is the class horse but can find bother in his races & is short enough. Fat Boy could go well but the stable is not really firing.

Befortyfour is worth a small interest at a big price.

Bet.
Befortyfour 20pts @ 15.0 Betfair.

Goodwood Cup
16f Group2
3yo+

Yeats has 4stars.
Honolulu has 3stars.

Hard to see past Yeats here but his stablemate could make him work quite hard. No bet at the odds.

Rio.

[whoneedsrio]

Befortyfour was a non-runner & the race had nothing with the required minimum of 3stars.
Folk Opera ran a good race to be beaten on the bob & Yeats was most impressive although I'd have to agree with Big Mac that the rest of the jockeys, Darryll Holland on Tungsten Strike apart hardly covered themselves in glory.

Glorious Stakes
12f Group3
4yo+

Sixties Icon has 4stars

Sixties Icon's form tailed off last season after a good reappearence run & it looks a similar story this season with a last of twelve on his last start in the Prince of Wales's. However the stable was under a cloud at the time & that may have been the problem.
Of more concern is that Sixties Icon is one of five runners that the trainers are worried about the ground & at this stage I'm inclined to wait to see the final make up of the field.

Oak Tree Stakes
7f Group3
3yo+ F&M

Cheyenne Star has 4stars.
Red Dune has 3stars.

This race seems to favour the 3yo's with nine of the last twelve runnings going to that age group although since the race was upped to Group3 level in 2004 two 4yo's have scored. Also it seems that a high draw is needed as nothing from the bottom half of the draw has won.

Cheyenne Star has a 3lb pen for winning a Group3 & she is drawn in stall 3 which is going to make life hard here.
The 3yo Red Dune has the plum draw in 16 & she likes to bowl along in front & she also has the right jockey for these tatics & has won on the track & the ground. Not raced at this level yet but looks an improver & the trainer is not one to tilt at windmills.

Of the rest.
Vist was quite highly tried at 2yo & was just beaten in a Sandown Listed race on her return. Has been held up in her races & needs things to fall her way from stall 7.
Not much appeals from the rest although I've got half an eye on the French raider Gipson Dessert & Lemaire has done me a couple of favours this term. Ran well behind Zarkava three runs back but not as good last twice but first try on fast ground here although stall 2 is not good.

Bet.
Red Dune 30pts @ 11/2 Paddy Power.

Back later with the July update.

Rio.

[whoneedsrio]

The only n/r so far in the first is Tempelstern however I have an uneasy feeling about this race even with Sixties Icon having the maximum 4stars & I have decided not to bet.

July stats.
There were 18 qualifying races during July, 3 of them didn't have the minimum 3stars a selection needs to make the shortlist.
From the other 15 races the winner was shortlisted 8 times (53%)

There were 13 horses with 4stars, 5 of these won at 3/1, 1/2, 7/1, 4/11 & 8/15.
1pt win on each would have returned 16.39pts a profit of 3.39pts.

On the actual bets front it was a quiet month with only 6 bets struck (not counting yesterdays non-runner) & just the 1 winner.
Stakes were 240pts & returns 200pts for a 40pt loss.
I put this down to the wet weather, I am always cautious when the going turns & this is two years now with unsetttled weather at this time of the year & I hope this is not a sign of things to come.

For the season.
From 74 races with a shortlist the winner was on the list 44 times (59%)

There have been 53 4star horses, 21 have won for a profit of 7.01pts to 1pt level stakes.

Actual bets
Wins/Runs 11/38
Stakes 1595pts
Returns 2074.45pts
Profit/Loss +479.45pts


August already

Rio.

[jtw1]

Shame you didn't have the confidence to go with SIXTIES ICON [1st 10/3]
but stick with your discipline mate , it will work in the long term .

for RED DUNE

[whoneedsrio]

Originally Posted by jtw1

Shame you didn't have the confidence to go with SIXTIES ICON [1st 10/3]
but stick with your discipline mate , it will work in the long term .

for RED DUNE

I tend to find if I have a doubt about a selection it's usually for a good reason & I'm not too unhappy about letting Sixties Icon pass.
Red dune ran well enough but what a good run from Cheyenne Star from a poor draw & with a penalty to just be held.

Nassau Stakes
10f Group1
3yo+ F&M

Lush Lashes has 4stars.
Passage of Time & Halfway to Heaven have 3stars.

Lush Lashes loves fast ground & ran a decent race in the 1000 Guineas & then bolted up at York in the Musidora with Newmarket Listed winner Dar Re Mi & Irish Oaks winner Moonstone well behind. Favourite for the Oaks after but ground softer than the official good? & the track found her out. Cracking win back on fast in the Coronation & the trip & going perfect here.
Passage of Time is a thing of beauty & a decent racehorse too but despite the return to form LTO this is a sight tougher.
Halfway to Heaven won the Irish 1000 after a good third in the French version. That form is not as good as Lush Lashes & not sure this trip will suit.

Heaven Sent looks the best of the rest but I'd be disappointed if Lush Lashes can't see her off.

Trying not to back under 2/1 but I can't see past Jim Bolger's filly here.

Bet.
Lush Lashes 100pts @ 13/8 Paddy Power.


Rio.

[whoneedsrio]

I note that I have not put the stake from the Red Dune bet in my returns, I shall do that here.
As for Lush Lashes I have just about calmed down, suffice it to say that Mr Manning is not on my Xmas card list!

Actual bets
Wins/Runs 11/40
Stakes 1725pts
Returns 2074.45pts
Profit/Loss +349.45pts

Rio.

[Brad]

Hope you haven't stopped posting on this thread Rio

[whoneedsrio]

Originally Posted by Brad

Hope you haven't stopped posting on this thread Rio

No I haven't stopped, I've been on my hols.
I had intended posting up for the Rose of Lancaster a couple of weeks back before heading off but it got late & I had to be up at 4-30am.

It seems I've missed some smashing weather with the Ebor meeting called off & some races run elsewhere.
By my reckoning there have been ten qualifying races while I've been away so I'm going to work on those just to see how the shortlists would have panned out.
Then it's back to business.

Rio.

[Brad]

Welcome back Rio. From the 10 races you have missed, many were poor betting opportunities anyhow with the class/form horse being unbackable, yet unopposable.

[Bails]

This is a really excellent thread Rio. I've not joined you for any of your recommended bets - I just like reading the analyses of someone disciplined and thoughtful. Long may it continue mate.