The Curse of the Flying Dutchman

[whoneedsrio]

Originally Posted by Brad

Good luck for Ascot Rio

Thanks Brad, Much appreciated.

Zarkava won the Prix Diane in style & now heads for the Arc in the Autumn.

Queen Anne
8f straight
Group1
4yo+

Darjina has 4stars.

Darjina was the best of her sex last season at this trip with three wins at Group1 including a head defeat of Finsceal Beo in the French 1000 Guineas & a cracking win over Ramonti & George Washington in the Moulin De Longchamp.
She has been beaten on both her starts here at Ascot in the Coronation Stakes & the QE2 but on both starts the ground was not fast enough for her. She has proved she can travel with fine placed efforts in the Hong Kong Mile & the Dubai Duty Free.
Just a little below her best LTO at Longchamp in the Prix d'Ispahan when beaten 2.5l by stablemate Sageburg but that was again on g/s & over 9f.
This really quick ground will suit & back to her best trip here. Also interesting that Soumillon sticks with her over Sageburg.

Of the rest.
Tariq, Cesare, Arabian Gleam & Haradasun bring the Lockinge form to the party. That was a muddling race with Haradasun looking a bit unlucky & expected to come on for the run, his first for O'Brien since moving from Oz.
He's the only one with wins at Group1 of the four but one was a handicap & the other had only six runners with the first four in a finish of necks.
Sageburg can get wound up before a race, been racing over mainly 10f & on ground much softer than today & could find things happening a bit quick.
Linngari is back with Stoute & could go well but has a couple of iffy runs at Nad al Sheba last twice to get over.
Finsceal Beo has yet to hit the heights of last Spring but did run well at the Curragh LTO but behind Darjina three times before & can't see why she'd beat her today.

Darjina for me, took the odds with Betfred last evening.

Bet.
Darjina 40pts @ 13/2 Betfred.

King Stand
5f Group1
3yo+

Takeover Target has 4stars.
Kingsgate Native & Fleeting Spirit have 3stars.

Takeover Target won this two years ago & was fourth last year. While he's still top class he's not getting any quicker over 5f & like last year this will have him spot on for the Golden Jubilee on Saturday.
Kingsgate Native won the Nunthorpe last season but the weight for age favours 2yo's for that, expect to see more trying to do the same over the next few seasons.
Second to Benbaun in the Abbaye after that would mean he needs to find a bit more & yet to prove he's trained on.
Fleeting Spirit has trained on & scorched the track at Haydock on her return. That run was even better than it looked as she missed the break & then tracked over behind the field from her low draw before powering through to win going away. Looking for her to do the same today with Enticing (behind at Haydock) & Equiano drawn either side of her to tow her along.

Of the rest.
Dandy Man was also behind Fleeting Spirit at Haydock but lost a shoe, has run well in this in the past but not won above Group3 & nearly always finds trouble in running.
Benbaun has had his chances here too & may need some cut.
Magnus was third last year & that is about where he should be this time too.

The first max bet of the season for me here.

Bet.
Fleeting Spirit 100pts @ 9/4 Paddy Power.

St James's Palace
8f round Group1
3yo entire colts

Henrythenavigator has 4stars.
Twice Over has 3stars.

Hard to pick holes in Henry's fast ground form. Beat New Approach by a nose on good at Newmarket & by nearly 2l on firm in the Irish 2000. Trip, ground & won the Coventry here last season so really he should win this.
There's quite a few Newmarket Guineas winners flopped here though, having been trained for the Spring event & maybe needing a break.
Twice Over won the Craven & then was routed away from the Guineas to take the Derby path, via the Dante, where he was beaten just under 3l by the Derby runner up Tartan Bearer. Twice Over appeared not to stay at York but was found to have a dodgy blood count after. Looked progressive before that & Henry wouldn't be running him unless he was right again.

Of the rest.
Falco won the French 2000 by 3l from Rio de la Plata but that doesn't look as strong a race as our Guineas.
Raven's Pass has another go but doesn't look like he truly gets a mile & I thought they might have aimed him at the Jersey.
Stubbs Art is held on form.
Rio de la Plata is the best of the Godolphin pair but looks a place type for me.

Twice Over is worth a small bet incase Henrythenavigator runs below par.

Bet.
Twice Over 20pts @ 11.0 Betfair.

Rio.

[whoneedsrio]

All three ran well yesterday but I seem to have a touch of placeyitus at the moment.
Just a shade disappointed with Fleeting Spirit & it seems the trainer thought she ran just a touch below her best.

Actual bets
Wins/Runs 6/22
Stakes 845pts
Returns 1165pts
Profit/Loss +320pts

The first thing to say today is I am a little wary of the going. They have watered again overnight, 4mm on the whole course.
The going stick is given at 10 overall but this is the average as the straight is 11.5 & the round part of the course 8.9.
Rain is forcast for the day & the Racing Post is saying that the first drops have started falling, to my mind it wouldn't take much more than a hour or so of heavyish rain to have the going all over the shop.

Jersey Stakes
7f Group3
3yo's

Nothing has the minimum 3stars to make the shortlist, so no selection.

Windsor Forest Stakes
8f Straight Group2
4yo+ Fillies & Mares

Sabana Perdida has 4stars.

Sabana Perdida was third in this last year just under 4l behind the top class Nannina. Won two Group3's since, one at Longchamp in September & then at Lingfield on her seasonal return. Both were at 7f but she has won at a mile & the real key to her is the ground, she needs it fast & with the doubts with the weather & the watering I would be waiting till after the first race today before striking any bet.

Of the rest.
Heaven Sent & Baharah look the likely dangers.
The former is improving with age & has taken Listed & Group3 events on her last two starts. Seems to go on any & no doubts about the trip.
Baharah has risen through the ranks via the aw, to win a valuable fast ground C&D handicap two runs back & then a fifth beaten a length in a muddling Group3 at Epsom.
Of the pair Heaven Sent would look the one to beat.

Prince of Wales's Stakes
10f Group1
4yo+

Duke of Marmalade has 3stars.

I backed the Duke several times last season & never collected but he ran some fine races in defeat in six Group1's.
Returned with two wins at the top level this season, the first at Longchamp & the second & third have both won Group1's since. On the second run he beat Finsceal Beo at the Curragh & she ran a good race here yesterday.
He goes on any ground & this is his trip, he looks the one to beat.

Of the rest.
Literato seems to have lost his form since the move to Godolphin.
Sixties Icon won the St Leger in 2006 & then lost his form after his first run last season.
Had a breathing op & returned with a second to Getaway at Newmarket & then won a Listed stakes at Goodwood. Yet to show he can run to his previous level & may find this trip a bit sharp.
Ask is one of those improving older horses from the Stoute yard. Won the Gordon Richards at Sandown FTO over 10f but that didn't look the strongest Group3 & all his best form is over further but does go any any ground.
Phoenix Tower is still open to improvement but needs to find at least 7lb for me.
The rest don't look up to this.

The O'Brien team look in good form for the meeting with two wins yesterday & I'm willing to dip under the 2/1 minimum here.

Bet.
Duke of Marmalade 100pts @ 7/4 Paddy Power.

Rio.

[whoneedsrio]

Having watched the first race I'm satisfied that the going remains on the fast side of good & have backed Sabana Perdida.

Bet.
Sabana Perdida 40pts @ 4.9 Betfair.

Rio.

[Brad]

Good shout on both selections Rio

[whoneedsrio]

Thanks again Brad.

A good day yesterday, Duke of Marmalade was very impressive & will take the Eclipse/Judmonte International route I would think, however he looks sure to get 12f & the Arc would also be in their sights.

A rule 4 due to Literato not running knocked 5% off the return from that bet & after the Betfair commission on the other the two bets returned 414.45pts for 140pts staked.

Actual bets
Wins/Runs 8/24
Stakes 985pts
Returns 1579.45pts
Profit/Loss +594.45pts


Ribblesdale Stakes
12f Group2
3yo Fillies

Cape Amber, Dar Re Mi & Michita all have 3stars.

The so called "Ascot Oaks", this is the weakest looking Group2 I've seen in a long time.
The Oaks winner is never going to come here & the placed horses will be trying to reverse the form in the Irish Oaks next Month.

The Epsom form is represented by Cape Amber & Michita.
The former didn't appear to stay 12f & was weakening when she was hampered late on. Before that she was a long looking 5l behind Lush Lashes in the Musidora & looked to lack a finishing kick.
Michita didnt handle the track at Epsom, not coming down the hill at all & then hanging left on the camber in the straight. Before that she looked quite impressive over 10f at Goodwood quickening up well on good ground.
Dar Re mi was behind Cape Amber in the Musidora & didn't seem to handle the fast ground, could be a non-runner today.

Of the rest.
Kitty Matcham doesn't seem to have trained on.
Changing Skies is still a maiden & looked one paced when third in the Cheshire Oaks.
Sovereign's Honour was further back in the Musidora.
The rest are all banged up in class & need a big step up in anything seen so far.

This is not a race to get too heavily involved with for me but Michita may be worth a small bet. I'm going to hang on a while though to see if Dar Re Mi comes out as there would be another rule 4 & how the market is shaping I don't think Michita would shorten that much if the other Gosden runner Defects.

Ascot Gold Cup.
20f Group1

Yeats & Coastal Path both have 4stars.

Yeats goes for the hat trick having won the last two runnings in style.
Just had the one start this season in the same Navan Listed contest as he started last season in. Made to work much harder this time when having to battle back to beat Red Moloney after been headed 1f out. Had his injury problems in the past but this is his big target & must be right for this today, stable obviously going well.
Coastal Path is an unbeaten 6 from 6 & has yet to be asked a serious question winning all his starts easily. Not been this far yet but should be no problem & more concern over the fast ground, however with a touch of overnight rain & 4mm of water on the track again this shouldn't be a problem. His half brother Reefscape was second to Yeats in this two years ago & Fabre thinks Coastal Path is better than him.

Of the rest.
Geordieland has talent but is hard to win with & is held by Yeats anyway.
Sagara has some decent 12f form including a third in last years Arc but was stone last at Goodwood on his first start for Godolphin. Must be a problem sort as well as he's been gelded & Dettori's on Regal Flush but he often gets it wrong when choosing.
Regal Flush needs to improve on form shown so far & might not stay this trip.
Le Miracle was 5l third to Yeats in this last season but then turned that round in the Prix du Cadran in October but Yeats had had enough by then, well beaten by Coastal Path last twice.
Allegretto was well behind in this last year & looks held.

Time for a changing of the guard & Coastal Path can spoil the fairytale.

Bet.
Coastal Path 100pts @ 21/10 Sportingbet.

Rio.

[whoneedsrio]

Dar Re Mi is now a non-runner.
Decided to go with Michita but I'm a little wary of the lightly raced types so a reduced stake for this one.

Bet.
Michita 30pts @ 3/1 Paddy power.

Rio.

[mileni4uk]

Originally Posted by whoneedsrio

Dar Re Mi is now a non-runner.
Decided to go with Michita but I'm a little wary of the lightly raced types so a reduced stake for this one.

Bet.
Michita 30pts @ 3/1 Paddy power.

Rio.

[mlmrob]

Superb analysis and results

[whoneedsrio]

Thank you Gents.

Just finished a 12 hour night shift, just the one this week, couldn't get out of it.
I'll do the figures for yesterday later & keep this brief as I need a power nap

King Edward VII
12f Group2
3yo Colts & Geldings

Bronze Cannon has 3stars

Missed the Derby for this. Wacked up in class but clearly improving at a rate of knots & defeat of Doctor Freemantle at Newmarket at level weights looks a smart bit of form.

Bet.
Bronze Cannon 40pts @ 9/2 Paddy Power.

Coronation Stakes
8f Group1
3yo Fillies

Spacious has 3stars.

good run FTO in the 1000 Guineas when second. Only three runs so should improve & I like that she has been given a bit of time & missed the Irish 1000 with this the big target.

Bet.
Spacious 50pts @ 100/30 Betfred.

Queens Vase
16f Group3
3yo's

Patkai has 3stars.

A field of unexposed types at this trip & while Patkai looks to be improving he doesn't look the most straightforward & is priced on connections & at a best of 13/8 this race is best swerved.

Quick kip & up & at em.

Rio.

[whoneedsrio]

Yesterdays 130pt stakes returned 120pts so a 10pt loss on the day.
Bit suprised to see 7/2 about Michita & of course I'm wishing I'd had a bit more on as she won very well.

Good run from Coastal Path who was bang there when turning in but appeared not to stay.
Well done to Yeats, a fine performance.

Actual bets
Wins/Runs 9/26
Stakes 1115pts
Returns 1699.45pts
Profit/Loss +584.45pts

Rio.

[whoneedsrio]

A disappointing day yesterday.
Spacious found nothing when asked to quicken but at least she was in a position to win if good enough.
The run of Bronze Cannon was the sort that I hate, from before the end of the first furlong I was thinking this going to be nowhere near & so it proved, a shocking run.
Patkai won the Queen's Vase in good style & looks a stayer going places.

Actual bets
Wins/Runs 9/28
Stakes 1205pts
Returns 1699.45pts
Profit/Loss +494.45pts

More than half an eye on the weather for the last day with a bit of overnight rain & some drizzle forcast, although it shouldn't affect the going too much unless it really chucks it down.

Hardwicke Stakes
12f Group2
4yo+

Hi Calypso has 4stars.

Stoute runs three here & Hi Calypso is the outsider of the trio. She did have 3stars but the non-runner Lucarno moves her from fourth in earnings up to third & gives her the max rating.
She did nothing but progress last season, winning her last four & stepping straight from handicaps to Group3 & finally Group2 success.
The last two were over a couple of furlongs more than today but the drop back to 12f shouldn't be a problem. She goes on any ground & has won twice on fast & looks the sort to progress again this season.

Of the rest.
Maraahel has won this the last twice but this looks a stronger race than those two. Two races this season should have him spot on for the hat trick bid but looks a place prospect at best for me.
Spanish Moon is the third Stoute runner.
Only had three starts missing most of last season with an injury after winning a backend maiden in 06.
Returned this season to win a fast ground C&D Listed race in some style from last 2f out & swooping wide after being hampered before the turn in.
McArthur is the favourite & looking to carry on the good run of the O'Brien team. Looked one of their lesser lights but was quite impressive at Chester in the Ormonde winning by 4l but that was not the strongest Group3. Third in the Coronation Cup last time looks better form & should go well but looks one to take on at the price.
Speed Gifted needs to find quite a bit more but could improve for his first run where he was hanging right at Goodwood when third in a Listed event.
The rest done look up to this on form shown.

I was going to leave this alone but with Hi Calypso now having 4stars & double figure odds available she's worth a small investment.

Bet.
Hi Calypso 20pts @ 16/1 Skybet.

Golden Jubilee
6f Group1
3yo+

At the moment nothing has the required minimum 3stars.
However should the ground remain on the fast side I can't see Soldier's Tale running, should he defect this would move Takeover Target up to 3stars as he is fourth in the f/c category.
Even if this doesn't happen I fancy the Aussie anyway. Showed he was as good as ever with a fine second in the King's Stand & is better over this trip these days. Connections were always aiming for this race of the two & that run will have him spot on. No worries about the ground as he goes on any except maybe heavy & got a plumb rail draw in 2, must go well here.
Marchand D'or, Sakhee's Secret & US Ranger look the dangers.
The French horse beat the King's Stand winner Equiano LTO in a Group2 at Chantilly over 5f. That was his first try at the minimum trip & he will be better at todays 6f. All his wins have come on good or softer & he was 2l behind Sakhee's secret in the July Cup on g/f last season.
Sahkee's Secret needs it fast & listening to the trainer after his Supaseus won the Wolferton handicap I got the feeling he's already getting his excuses ready as he seemed to doubt whether he'd go on the track anyway.
US Ranger is one of those that looks like he ought to land a big prize & was moved to O'Brien after his second in the Jersey at this meeting last season which he was expected to win.
Eating up the ground when fourth from supposedly drawn on the wrong side in the Duke of York last time. No excuses today as he goes on any ground, is drawn in 5 & with enough pace to run with, still has a bit to prove for me.

Takeover Target has no obvious chinks in the armour with cast iron form in the book, he'll do for me.

Bet.
Takeover Target 50pts @ 11/2 Sportingbet.

Rio.

[Spooner]

for today Rio.

[whoneedsrio]

The end of the busiest week of the season.
Nothing from yesterday Hi Calypso never got into the race & Takeover Target ran his usual game race but time has caught up with him.
Overall just about everything ran well enough apart from the poor showing from Bronze Cannon.
There was a loss on the week of 55.55pts but in general to arrive at this stage of the season showing a decent profit is satisfying enough.
A welcome break now until the weekend with the next qualifying races at Newcastle & Newmarket & Group1 action in Ireland.

Actual bets
Wins/Runs 9/30
Stakes 1275pts
Returns 1699.45pts
Profit/Loss +424.45pts

Rio.

[whoneedsrio]

Just finished a 12 hour night so this is going to be fairly short.

Chipchase Stakes
6f Group3
3yo+

Reverence & Brave Prospector both have 3stars.

Ground on the soft side for Reverence which he loves but is not the force of old & has had his share of injury problems.

Brave Prospector has improved since been fitted with a tongue tie & dropping back to 6f. Landed valuable York sprint in good style LTO after a good run at Newmarket. Seems to go on soft & this is not the strongest Group3.

Bet.
Brave Prospector 30pts @ 7.5 (average) Betfair.

Criterion Stakes
7f Group3
3yo+

Army of Angels has 4stars
King of Dixie has 3stars

Six runners in a race worth nearly £27k to the winner & some owner/trainer is bound to be bleating about the level of prize money in this Counrty.

King of Dixie is improving & wouldn't need to find much on the level of form shown so far to win this, however at around 6/4 I'm leaving this race alone.

Pretty Polly Stakes
10f Group1
3yo+ F&M

Promising Lead has 3stars

Finsceal Beo has high marks in the earnings & F/C categories but it's six races since she last won in the Irish 1000 Guineas & I think she's not improved since last Spring.

Promising Lead however was improving last Autumn & ended up just getting done a head in the Prix de l'Opera with Finsceal Beo over 2l behind in fifth. Won a soft Group3 at York on her return & looks another Stoute older type that he excels with.

Anna Pavlova would like it a bit softer & Mad About You looks the best of the 3yo's but has a bit to find on form.

Bet.
Promising Lead 50pts @ 5/2 Ladbrokes.

Bed time

Rio.

[whoneedsrio]

Brave Prospector was a disappointment only beating one home, however Promising Lead did the job for a 95pt profit on the day.

Actual bets
Wins/Runs 10/32
Stakes 1355pts
Returns 1874.45pts
Profit/Loss +519.45pts

Irish Derby
12f Group1
3yo

Casual Conquest, New Approach & Tartan Bearer all have 4stars.

I don't think I've had three horses with 4stars before.
New Approach is the subject of a late injury scare, he should confirm the Epsom form if he runs but the Derby form often takes a knock.
Tartan Bearer is open to more improvement over this trip & could progress past New Approach, if not today later in the season.
Casual Conquest is much the same & although only third at Epsom that was only his third start.

If I back one now & New Approach is too short for me if he is pulled out there will be a rule 4 & therefore this is a leave alone race for me.

Grand Prix de St-Cloud
12f Group1
4yo+

Soldier of Fortune has 4stars
Getaway has 3stars

This is a corker.
Getaway was not suited to Epsom & I'm tempted to back him here to turn it round with Soldier of Fortune but that one has pretty much his ideal conditions & there are plenty of other dangers as well in a top class field.
I'm going to sit this one out as well but it should be an entertaining half hour on ATR's this afternoon.

Rio

[whoneedsrio]

Overall June was quite a disappointing Month.
From 24 races the winner was shortlisted 11 times (46%)
There were 14 4star selections with 5 winners at 9/4, 1/3, 4/7, 4/1 & 11/8.
1pt on each would return 13.52pts for a small loss of -0.48pts.

From the actual bets there were 4 winners from 18 bets struck.
Stakes of 850pts returned 709.45pts for a loss of 140.55pts.
While this was disappointing most of the bets gave a run for the money.

The season so far.
36 winners in the shortlist from 59 races (61%)
16 4star winners from 40 selections for a small profit of +3.62pts.

Actual bets
Wins/Runs 10/32
Stakes 1355pts
Returns 1874.45pts
Profit/Loss +519.45pts

While the Month was a loss overall I'm happy enough with the general picture & would have settled for this position at the start.

Onwards into July.

Rio.

[whoneedsrio]

Lanson Sprint
5f Group3
3yo+

Ancien Regime has 4stars.

Normally a shortlisted horse with 4stars & nothing else with more than 1star would mean a must bet if the minimum odds can be had.
However I'm not a fan of this one, he needs things to drop right for him & looks better over 6 or 7f to me.
Hoh Mike won this last year & should go well again.
Wi Dud who's not shown a great deal this term is the only other one thats not a handicapper looking to nab a soft Group3 to me & this race looks a leave alone.

Lancashire Oaks
12f Group2
3yo+ F&M

Folk Opera & Dress Rehearsal have 3stars.

Clowance would have had 4stars & looked a selection but seems a non-runner.
Dress Rehearsal is an improving 3yo & should like the trip but has a bit to find on form shown so far.
Folk Opera is also improving & is a C&D winner at Listed level, seems to have been kept fresh for this.

Of the rest.
Anna Pavlova would like it a bit softer.
Turbo Linn won this last year when it was re-routed to Newmarket but looks to be below that form so far this Season.
Ezima should go well but needs to find a bit at this level.

I'll go with Folk Opera here.

Bet.
Folk Opera 40pts @ 9/2 Paddy Power.

Eclipse
10f Group1
3yo+

Phoenix Tower has 4stars
Campanologist has 3stars

This is not the strongest Eclipse ever.

Phoenix Tower won his first four before a good second in the Lockinge which was a muddling race.
Second LTO in the Prince of Wales's Stakes beaten 4l but by Duke of Marmalade who is perhaps the best older middle distance horse in training.
Race should be run to suit & should be ok at the trip & on the ground.
Campanologist made most when winning the King Edward VII but this is a harder & has quite a bit to find.

Of the rest.
Literato seems to have lost his way.
Maraahel is not quite the force of old & is held at this level.
Mount Nelson looks flattered by his run in the Queen Anne.
Multidimentional can't run two races the same & Durcan prefers phoenix Tower.
Pipedreamer has yet to show he can step up from top class handicapper.

Bet.
Phoenix Tower 40pts @ 4/1 Ladbrokes.

Working tomorrow so it's Sky+ & off to bed for me.

Rio.

[step1]

Just read your original post and thought it was brilliant.

Very good of you to share your work with others.

From the OP:

I use the Fineform method hence the F/F, however there was/is a copywrite on this which Fineform strictly guarded. Although I have not seen any of their ads for a good while I would not care to beak the copywrite here.

anyone wanting this should google:punters paradise pricing up a book.

Good luck with this in the future.

[whoneedsrio]

Thanks step.

I've been beating myself up a bit over Saturday. I was working that day & placed the bets on the Friday evening & set the Sky+ to record the racing.
Having decided not to back Ancien Regime the damn thing wins, that doesn't bother me too much, the horse is not straightforward & I didn't think the drop back to 5f would suit & I would probably do the same again in the circumstances.
The thing that annoyed me was the thought that popped into my head straight after the race "watch the other two get beat"
It's my old mate the gambling God rearing his ugly head again, truth be known I'm a bit of a superstitious old bugger.
Anyway Folk Opera ran ok on ground which was pretty soft & was right up Anna Pavlova's street.
In the Eclipse Phoenix Tower ran a blinder & just got caught on the line, another one off the crossbar.
Anyway onwards.

Actual bets
Wins/Runs 10/34
Stakes 1435pts
Returns 1874.45pts
Profit/Loss +439.45pts

Here we are once again in the midst of yet another wonderful English Summer, if this is global warming then they can stick it where the sun definitely doesn't shine.

Falmouth Stakes
8f Group1
3yo+ F&M

Darjina & Infallible both have 3stars.

I'm out in the morning so I've done the race now. Apparently theres been quite a bit of rain at Newmarket & the ground is probably on the easy side & theres more wet stuff to come. I'd want to see the early races before deciding to bet or not.

Darjina is having a similar run to me & has been placed on all her three starts this season. She needs it fast really & also had a bit of a rough trip over with a six hour delay in Calais & altogether spent 18 hours in the horsebox. It wouldn't suprise me if she didn't run but she has the best form of the older horses & has finished in front of Finsceal Beo on the four times they have met.
Infallible has yet to race on softer than good in four starts & I'm still not convinced she gets a mile & this is quite a stiff track.

All in all it's a bit of a head scratcher this one, I'll have another look when I get in tomorrow but at the moment I'm inclined to leave this one alone.

Rio.

[whoneedsrio]

After having another look I've decided to leave this race alone.

Rio.