The Curse of the Flying Dutchman

[Brad]

Top marks on a superb hat trick whoneedsrio.

First rate analysis on all three races.

[whoneedsrio]

Originally Posted by Brad

Top marks on a superb hat trick whoneedsrio.

First rate analysis on all three races.

Thanks Brad, to the PL.

A good day at the Office.
Getaway was most impressive off not too strong a gallop.
A top ride from Lemaire on Natagora, getting to the front & setting just the right pace.
The cherry on the cake from Captain Gerrard who must be a major player in all the 5f sprints.

Stakes today 125pts
Returns 615pts
A profit of 490pts on the day.

Actual bets
Wins/Runs 3/5
Stakes 215pts
Returns 615pts
Profit/Loss +400pts

Rio.

[tafflizgreg]

absolutly magnificent tipping well done

[jtw1]

Very impressive results so far mate .
Will be keeping an eye on this one

[Marlin]

Well done Rio, some great analysis and results there.

[whoneedsrio]

I'm not a fan of Chester, there are enough variables in this game without having horses racing round a glorified greyhound track. That much is made of the draw & getting the right position that a lot of the time those drawn wide go off too fast to get to the inside while others still try to sit at the back and come late up the short straight.

Another of the Raceform Update Sports Forum contributers Macintosh said,
"I'm only interested in the best, this means Group1 And/or televised meeting (the only exception to this is Chester which I avoid like the plague for reasons that I hope will be obvious)"
I have to agree with him and would only watch the meeting for future clues with the money staying firmly in the pocket.

Much of VDW's writings were about temperament and one of the keys for success for me is knowing when not to bet, it's one of the punters major weapons. The bookie has to offer odds on the race, you on the other hand are not obliged to make a wager.
It can be hard after working on a race not to have some financial interest, indeed I did it myself with that handicap last week but more often than not leaving well alone is the best option.
I've rated todays two Group races & will do the two tomorrow because I've stated that this trial will be on as many qualifying races as possible and to be honest with only small fields todays races took little time to rate anyway.

Huxley Stakes
4yo+ Group3
10.5f

Maraahel & Multidimensional have 3 stars each.

Maraahel tries to win this for the fourth time on the spin so he clearly goes on the track, however on all three occasions he had had a run before hand, each time in the John Porter at Newbury & he has yet to score FTO. He also as a 5lb pen for winning a Group2 last season.

Multidimensional has had some injury problems & is quite lightly raced for a 5yo. Didn't run till September last season when winning a minor stakes at Newbury & then ran into traffic problems in the Champion stakes at Newmarket where he may have finished a bit closer. Similar story again at Newmarket, in a steady run Group3 on his return, likely to improve for that.

Of the rest Stotsfold needs to find a bit on form shown so far.
Championship Point usually struggles at this level.
Majounes Song is a filly with a Group3 pen from a win in Germany & this is harder against the males.
Spice Route is another who will struggle at this level.

If forced to bet it would be Multidimensional, but I'm not so I ain't.

Chester Vase
3yo Colts & geldings
12.5f

Pampas Cat has 3 stars
All the Aces, Doctor Freemantle, Feared in Flight & Vivaldi all have 2 stars.

8 runners & 5 shortlisted which would have the alarm bells ringing as a leave alone race at any track never mind round here.

It is interesting though that Pampas Cat has 3 stars from only one run, the missing tick being in the Fancied/Class rating from his 5l win in a Newmaket maiden where he went off at 20/1.
The third there took a Windsor maiden after & the runner up won at Chester yesterday so the form is working out & Pampas Cat could be quite useful.
The others all have a mixture of 2 stars from different categories & all bar All the Aces are trying this trip for the first time. Also only Feared in Flight has any Group race form, the rest steping up in class from maidens or handicaps.

Another leave alone event.

Rio.

[whoneedsrio]

Maraahel looked like landing the fourtimer but was nabbed close home by the race fit Championship Point, had he had a run before he would probably have prevailed.
Multidimensional didn't quicken when asked & may now have his own ideas about the game although Ted Durcan had him that far back I suspect he thought he was riding Pegasus.

Doctor Freemantle improved from his handicap debut to land the Chester Vase & time will show how high the level of form is but I don't see any of these winning a big race.

Dee Stakes
10.5f
Group3

Alexandros has 4 stars
Achill Island & Midnight Muse have 2 stars.

Alexandros was with Andre Fabre as a 2yo & improved all the time, winning at Listed & Group3 before rounding off with a 2.5l third in the Group1 Prix Morny beaten by Myboycharlie & the 1000 Guineas winner Natagora.

Achill Island also has some Group form with a second in the Group2 Royal Lodge at Ascot & then the same placing in the Breeders Cup juvenile Turf, both on softish ground. Seemed to flounder in the mud on his return in France & his one win so far was when racing on good ground for the only time but that was just a Tipperary maiden. Interesting to see how he goes today on this much faster surface.

Midnight Muse takes a huge leap up in class here & is hard to fancy.

Of the rest.
Tajaaweed won his maiden FTO last year then was chucked in the deep end in the Racing Post Trophy & was tenth of twelve. Likely to improve this season but others have classier form so far.
North Parade & Unnefer both need to improve on form so far & the latter is quite exposed having had six runs already.

Normally I'd be backing Alexandros here but with my dislike of the track & more importantly the poor showing from the stable so far this is a leave alone.

Ormonde Stakes
13.5f 4yo+
Group3

Raincoat has 3 stars

Raincoat looked progressive early last season with a minor win & a decent second to Authorized in the Dante. Never challenged in the French Derby but then ran well in the Gordon Stakes at Goodwood beaten about a length which looked a fair St Leger trial. Ended up last at Doncaster though appearing not to stay but may just have had enough for he season. Won a minor stakes at Ripon on return which is not much cop on bare form but stable is in good nick & he should go well here.

Of the rest.
Macarthur should improve as most of O'Brien's have done for his return run at the Curragh. In front of Raincoat in the St Leger but he's only won once & that was on his one 2yo start & has looked a bit one paced which won't help on this sharp track.
Red Gala is one of those older Stoute horses thats moved up from handicaps to Group level but so far doesn't look quite up to it.
Tempelstern is another upped in class & was a fair third at this level FTO this season at Newbury. Soft ground that day & both wins so far have come with cut in the ground.

I was going to leave this race alone too but the 6/1 at Paddy Power for Raincoat is a big price in a weak looking race & is worth a small wager.

Bet.
Raincoat 20pts @ 6/1 Paddy Power.

Rio.

[whoneedsrio]

I think it was Mark Coton who wrote about the Gambling Gods & tempting fate, the sort thing like when your horse is ten lengths clear heading to the final fence & the thought pops into your head "it's only got to jump this" & the beast crumples on landing on the other side.
Now I know thats just a load of rubbish but I could almost see what was coming yesterday, did I not say that either they go too fast to try to get to the front or lay too far back. After the race Jim McGrath said that Dettori was always niggling along, not to my eyes. He never asked the horse for any effort until turning into the straight & for me was too far back. If the other horse had not got in his way he would have probably got second, as it is Tom Quealy's got a ban for careless riding & Dettori shouldn't have even been there.

I must not back at Chester

Actual bets
Wins/Runs 3/6
Stakes 235pts
Returns 615pts
Profit/Loss +380pts

Both races went to horses not shortlisted.

Lingfield Derby Trial
11.5f Group3

Allessandro Volta & Campanologist have 4 stars
By Command has 3 stars
Alan Devonshire has 2 stars

When I assessd this race Curtain Call was in the field but even then it looked a race to swerve. Now we have four on the shortlist from five runners, it happens with these small fields & the race is only included here because it's a qualifying race.

Chartwell Fillies Stakes.
7f Group3
3yo+

Sabana Perdida & Verba both have 4 stars.

Sabana Perdida has form at a higher level than this including a good third in the Group2 Windsor Forest at Royal Ascot last year. Took a Group3 at Longchamp after which was her last start. The key to her seems to be the ground & she should love the fast going today. The stable is in good form & have a fine record when sending them over here.

Verba is a 3yo with two minor stakes wins & a 4l third at this level with all three starts on soft/heavy. Made all on return over 6f at Maisons-Laffitte so looks to have trained on but was held up & pulled hard on her other two starts, may go off too fast here & will she handle the going?

Of the rest.
The best of ours looks to be Salsa Steps, both wins came on fast ground & at 6f in a maiden & FTO this season in a minor Windsor handicap where she was a good winner. This is a big leap in class here & she was never dangerous on her try at Listed class last season but that was on soft ground.

The more experienced Sabana Perdida can take another prize back to France.

Bet.
Sabana Perdida 50pts @ 5/2 Coral.

Rio.

[Brad]

Once again, excellent analysis and selection Rio.

Here's to a good York.

[whoneedsrio]

Originally Posted by Brad

Once again, excellent analysis and selection Rio.

Here's to a good York.

Thanks again Brad, I'm back at work next week (12 hour nights) I will be rating the races at York but the write-ups will probably be a bit shorter.

Allessandro Volta won the Derby Trial, staying on well close home & with maybe a bit in hand.

Sabana Perdida landed the other race in good style with the other 4 star filly Verba in second. This was a decent performance has she had a 4lb penalty for her Group3 win.

Actual bets
Wins/Runs 4/7
Stakes 285pts
Returns 790pts
Profit/Loss +505pts

Rio.

[welshman 2005]

nice one

[welshman 2005]

have you done the analysis on longchamp and leopardstown tomorrow. or are ya just concentrating on uk races

[whoneedsrio]

Originally Posted by welshman 2005

have you done the analysis on longchamp and leopardstown tomorrow. or are ya just concentrating on uk races

I have used this method on overseas racing before on races such as the Arc & the Irish classics. It would not be practical for me to include all the overseas Group races but I will run the rule over the major Group1 events so I'll have a look at both the French Guineas. The question though is do I include them in this trial? I think probably yes, any thoughts anybody?

Rio.

[welshman 2005]

I have used this method on overseas racing before

did you have much success with it, or were the results medocre

[jtw1]

Originally Posted by whoneedsrio

I have used this method on overseas racing before on races such as the Arc & the Irish classics. It would not be practical for me to include all the overseas Group races but I will run the rule over the major Group1 events so I'll have a look at both the French Guineas. The question though is do I include them in this trial? I think probably yes, any thoughts anybody?

Rio.

As long as you can find the time to check them out then i would say yes .
Sticking to Group 1's only is a good idea .

Nice winner again mate , If i were you i'd consider posting this on the main At The Races thread on PL .
You would access a far bigger audience [ nothing to stop you keeping it on the systems thread as well ]

[whoneedsrio]

Originally Posted by welshman 2005

did you have much success with it, or were the results medocre

I'd say from a relatively small amount of bets it was quite sucessfull.

Originally Posted by jtw1

As long as you can find the time to check them out then i would say yes .
Sticking to Group 1's only is a good idea .

Nice winner again mate , If i were you i'd consider posting this on the main At The Races thread on PL .
You would access a far bigger audience [ nothing to stop you keeping it on the systems thread as well ]

I am posting any bets in my thread in the main forum but moving over is one to consider. After York & the Lockinge theres a quiet period heading up to Epsom I'll have a think.

French 2000 Guineas

Thewayyouare has 4stars
Tamayuz has 3stars
Rio De La Plata & General Eliott have 2stars.

Thewayyouare progressed through the class scale to the highest level battling back to win the Group1 Criterium International over this trip at Saint-Cloud in November. Ground should be no problem & the form is solid, yet to see this track though & this is his first start this season but no secret of my high opinion of his trainer & he will be ready.

Tamayuz is another progressing up the ranks & took a C&D Group3 on his return in April quickening up to lead close home. Back in third, beaten about a length was Hello Morning which was the one that Thewayyouare was headed by before getting back up again in the Criterium, on a strict reading of that form Tamayuz would just have the edge here.

Rio De La Plata scores his stars in the Earnings & Fancied/Class departments & is another who's scored at Group1 level, at this track over 7f. Before that had rather let New Approach have a soft lead at the Curragh & was further behind that one in the Dewhurst but the ground may not have helped. Should have no problems on that score today but the few runners that Godolphin have had so far have not run well.

General Eliott is the other way with his 2 stars from the other categories. This means he's wacked up in class here & it needs a massive improvement on his two runs so far.

Of the rest.
The aforementioned Hello Morning is held by both Thewayyouare & Tamayuz but is supposed to have a better draw than both those & Rio De La Plata.

Georgebernardshaw has won his first two starts this season & is clearly improving, the last one was only Listed class though & both were on heavy & he's yet to race on quicker ground having three starts on the aw at Dundalk.

Paco Boy is also going the right way but is another upped in class.

Decided on a split bet here with a smallish stake as there are doubts with the draw on this tricky course.

Bets.
Thewayyouare 18pts @ 6/1 VCbet.
Tamayuz 12pts @ 9/1 Ladbrokes.

French 1000 Guineas.

Zarkova has 4stars
Conference Call & Modern Look have 3stars
Goldikova & Kayaba have 2stars

Zarkova is unbeaten, won all three starts over this C&D on Good, Good/soft & Heavy going, at Group1 level & the last start FTO in a Group3 shows she's trained on. On the last two runs she's beaten Conference Call, both times by 2.5l so no reason she should reverse that form.

Modern Look was second to Natagora on her return but would need to improve again to trouble Zarkova.

The other two are wacked up in class here & with the O'Brien pair looking nothing special it's hard to see past the favourite here but no bet at a best of 4/6.

Rio.

[whoneedsrio]

No return from yesterday with Thewayyouare sixth & Tamayuz nineth.
Zarkova won the fillies race as an odds on shot should. Her next target seems to be the Prix Diane, wonder if we'll see her over here?

Actual bets
Wins/Runs 4/9
Stakes 315pts
Returns 790pts
Profit/Loss +475pts

Wednesday at York for the next races.

Rio.

[whoneedsrio]

Musidora
10.5f Group3
3yo Fillies

Cruel sea has 4stars
Cape Amber & Dar Re Mi have 3stars
Lush Lashes has 2stars

Another small field trial race with only Lush Lashes having run at Group class & others with one or two starts. Not a race to get involved with for me, even with the 14/1 on offer for the 4star Cruel Sea.

Duke of York
6f Group2
3yo+

Haatef has 4stars
Soldier's Tale has 3stars

It would not suprise me to see Soldier's Tale pulled out of this. He prefers some cut & is very Fragile with only eight starts which is not much for a 7yo. Also has a Group1 pen here which will also make life tough but does like the track.

Haatef has some fair form including a 3l fourth to Teofilo in the Dewhurst at 2yo & a fair run FTO in the 2000 Guineas last season. Seems best at this trip & is three from three at 6f including a Group2 at Ascot when last seen in September. Should go well at a decent price.

The one from not on the shortlist which should go best is US Ranger who is now with O'Brien & has some smart form from last year. 6f could be his trip & will come on for his first start on ground that may have been too soft. Likely to blaze away in front.

Bet.
Haatef 30pts @ 15/2 Blue Sq

Rio.

[badden]

I found a site which is along the same lines he has several books which are for sale @ £15.00 gave fathsa at 20/1 yesterday if anyone wants more info just ask

[Brad]

Hi badden

Curiosity has got the better of me. Which books and site are you referring to?