The Curse of the Flying Dutchman

[whoneedsrio]

The Flying Dutchman, according to folklore, is a ghost ship that can never go home, and is doomed to sail the oceans forever. The Flying Dutchman is usually spotted from afar, sometimes seen to be glowing with ghostly light. It is said that if she is hailed by another ship, her crew will often try to send messages to land or to people long since dead. In ocean lore, the sight of this phantom ship is reckoned by seafarers to be a portent of doom.

The Systematic Punter, doomed to search forever for the winning system. Often thinks he has found the ultimate method only to find his hopes dashed on the rocks.


A few weeks ago I turned 50 and I found myself looking back and refecting on life in general and also on my chief hobby horse racing.
Now like most of my age I’ve been round the block a few times and theres a few things I’ve always intended to get round to which of course doesn’t always happen.
One of these is a project which I ‘ve been working on since around 2001 but its roots go much deeper into the past, over 30 years in fact.

In the late 70’s I was introduced by a fellow racing fan at work to the weekly publication the Sporting Chronicle Handicap Book. This still exists but is now known as the Raceform Update and though much has changed it still contains the readers letters page called sports forum.
Around 1978 a letter was published from one Che Van der Wheil suggesting a swop shop of ideas which would set the page alight. Replies included one that said “When passing round the hat it is normal to throw in some silver yourself, to encourge others and to get a good return”
Another said that he was sure that Van der Wheil voiced the thoughts of many and that it was refreshing that he did not hide behind a ludicrous pseudonym such as “The Flying Dutchman”
Of course after that he was often refered to by that name, hence the title of this piece and also as VDW.

Then the letters started, first a staking plan and then a way to narrow the field by use of the horses last three placings. An example was given using the Irish Champion Hurdle and how he arrived at the winner.
Almost straight away opinion polarized with one camp treating this like the second coming, here was the secret to fleecing the evil bookie and the other crying foul and “after timing”
More letters added to “the method”
A way to evaluate class and ability and the use of form and time ratings, till another reader wrote in saying he had had four winners.
VDW replied that the four bets were indeed good things and congratulated the author on spotting the methods key.
Now the debate raged on over weeks and months as to this missing key, other methods were offered by Van der Wheil without ever fully clearing up the first, mudding the waters even more.
Both sides fired broadsides at each other and the whole thing rumbled on through the 80’s.
Sports Forum editor Tony Peach persuded VDW to wite a small booklet for Raceform called “Systematic betting” Other books were published after by Tony Peach of the letters to Sports Forum and interviews with Van der Wheil and at one time many thought that Peach was The Flying Dutchman, something he always denied.
The letters dried up during the 90’s and Peach reported that VDW had retired through ill health and later that he had passed away.
Bernie Ford took over as Sports Forums editor and still barely a week went past without those initials cropping up in a letter.

Then around the milllenium Ford passed the forum baton over to Graham Wheldon.
Many of you will know that Graham is probably the top expert on the draw in this country. He is the author of three Raceform books on the subject, writes a weekly column in Racing & Football Outlook during the flat turf season on the draw, writes also for Raceform Update and the Racing Post, he’s a very busy chap. He also falls firmly into the non-believer camp when it comes to VDW, many times he has asked for selections to be proofed up front and in these days of e-mail and instant messaging why not?
Shortly after taking over he effectivly banned any more Van der Wheil related letters.
Sports Forum now is hardly of any interest with only the occasional decent misstive.
I don’t think this is entirely down to Wheldon banning the VDW stuff, forums such as ours mean replies can be posted quickly, a weekly paper means months can pass while discussions take place where as we can do the same in hours.
However before Graham ended the VDW Sports Forum era he published details of a Van der Wheil forum on Yahoo groups and this is where my involvement really begins.

I have to say that I wasn’t a great believer in the VDW method myself, a lot of the after timed examples didn’t ring true to me and the thing I disliked most was the tone of the letters. I felt that whoever the author was he was talking down to his readers, as if we were expected to kneel before the great master and were unworthy of his wisdom.
Anyway I decided to have a look at the Yahoo group and signed up. There were several hundred posts to read through and a fair sized membership. At first it was quite interesting reading but then it became like Sports Forum again with auguments breaking out. Usually this was someone who was following the masters way to the letter chastizing those who had strayed from the path. In short some of the ego’s in there were almost as big as the original.
Despite this I began to look again at the method and started to rate some races. After a few weeks a pattern seemed to develop and things started to evolve. At first I had seven categories for each horse rated and this took up quite a bit of time, even more so when I added an eighth which was an idea of my own. Gradually I refined this to what it is now four categories, three of the original ones and mine.
I have used this method for about the last five years but only on an infrequent basis, what I have always wanted to do is to run it for a full season, in action and test it completely and this is what I hope to do this Flat season.

The Groundrules.
So how is this going to work?
The method is based on class and consistancy so works in the better class races and non handicaps so I’m going to use Group 1, 2 and 3 races.
Because there is little to go on in many cases 2yo racing is excluded. On this point the racing of 2yo’s has changed greatly over the last 20 or 30 years, many trainers give their better 2yo’s a very light campaign often avoiding the 2yo pattern races and sometimes only running them once or twice in backend maidens and minor stakes. Therefore it is always best to treat 3yo only Group races with a degree of caution, certainly before Royal Ascot.

The Method
Having chosen the race I write down the entire field in racecard order down the lefthand side of my ledger.
Across the top are my four categories headed, F/F, %, E and F/C

F/F is a varriant of the VDW last three form figures. He added the last three placings together, for example: 812 = 11. Anything above 9 is usually given as 0 and would count as 10.
I use the Fineform method hence the F/F, however there was/is a copywrite on this which Fineform strictly guarded. Although I have not seen any of their ads for a good while I would not care to beak the copywrite here.

% is the number of wins divided by the number of runs.
For flat racing I include turf and aw runs together but any runs under NH rules are ignored.

E is for earnings.
The career earnings, win and place, for flat and aw added together in thousands divided by the number of runs (not wins) for example.
£136,500 would be rounded up to 137 and divided by the total runs, say 9 gives 15.22 to two decimal places.

F/C is for fancied/class
This is my baby and is a calculation based on the horses last run involving the prize money for the race, the horses starting price and it’s finishing position and that is as much as I’m saying at this point.

Each horse is rated in the four categories which takes about a minue each using the Racing Post form pages or web site.
Once all have been rated the top three in each category are awarded a star *
If there are joint rated each is given a star, for example a top rated and three joint second rated would each get the star but the next one in third would not.

Any horse with one or no stars is elimated.
Any horse with two stars are also usually rejected although in early season 3yo races a lightly raced type may not have a high E and F/C figure and it may pay to keep an eye on this type.
Three star animals are kept for the shortlist.
Four stars would normally mean automatic selection although the price available would determine if I would bet or not.

Once the shortlist is arrived at it is then a case of deciding whether to reduce the list further by normal form study or if prices allow to back two or more.
Three is usually the maximum on the list and two is the usual number, any race with a shortlist of one would mean, price allowing, a bet.
I have had the odd race with no three or four star horses and these races are best avoided.

Having arrived at the shortlist the idea then is to decide if a bet on one or more is in order, part of this experiment is to see if a true system can be made from this with four star selections the most logical area.
We shall see.

[whoneedsrio]

16.04.2008
Newmarket 7f
Group 3
3yo Fillies

This is one of those early season 3yo races with lightly raced types & those with high Earnings & Fancied/Class figures from running well in the fairly new 2yo sales races.
It's a race that gets the leave alone alarm bells ringing & there are plenty of races to come in a long season.
However for the record,

Shabiba has 3 stars
Anosti, Quiet Elegance & Rinterval have 2 stars each.

This early in the season there will be quite a few leave alone races, indeed it's rare for me to bet these days before the Guineas meeting but I have to start somewhere & this is it.

Rio.

[welshman 2005]

heard about van der wheil before, looked on the net and couldnt find much abou him.

good luck

[WorkingForTheEnemy]

Good luck with this. Obviously a whole lot of thought and effort has gone into it.

[Marlin]

Hi whoneedsrio,

This looks interesting. I’ve had an on and off interest in VDW’s writings for quite a while now. From what I recall VDW wrote that it does not always follow that a good thing shows from the preliminary investigation, which tends to suggest that sometimes they do. It will be interesting to see if your system can find them.

Have you found your earnings rating to be more reliable than VDW’s ability rating then or are you still experimenting with it? Either way, best of luck with this.

[ardman123]

Hello mate looks interesting had a quick read but am unsure if you are backing or laying the selections.

[whoneedsrio]

Originally Posted by Marlin

Hi whoneedsrio,
This looks interesting. I’ve had an on and off interest in VDW’s writings for quite a while now. From what I recall VDW wrote that it does not always follow that a good thing shows from the preliminary investigation, which tends to suggest that sometimes they do. It will be interesting to see if your system can find them.
Have you found your earnings rating to be more reliable than VDW’s ability rating then or are you still experimenting with it? Either way, best of luck with this.

Marlin,
I always considered this as a way to narrow the field & arrive at a shortlist .
The VDW comment that the good thing may not be shown from the preliminary investigation was the sort of thing that wound up the non-believers who questioned the ways that winners were arrived at after the event.
With regard to the earnings rating I prefer the total win & place prize money divided by total races to the prize money from wins alone as a win in a valuable but soft race can skew the rating.

ardman,
I'm a backer not a layer.
It's my intention to rate as many of these races as I can & I will be betting. As in my season threads in ATR bets will show prices taken & stakes in points & the running totals. The race today looked one to swerve as stated in my previous post & if there is no stake then I have not had a bet.

Infallible which had one star & was not in the shortlist won the Nell Gwyn, the recent record of winners from this race, Speciosa apart, makes poor reading with regard to the 1000 Guineas.

I've decided to keep a running total of races rated & shortlisted winners on a Monthly basis & separate from any bets.
There are two Group 3's tomorrow at Newmarket & I will post up any shortlisted horses in the morning.

Thanks to you both & WFTE & Welshman for your interest & good wishes.

Rio.

[whoneedsrio]

Newmarket 3.45
Group 3
7f 3yo Colts & geldings

This used to be the top 2000 Guineas trial but apart rom Haafhd who won here before taking the Guineas in 2004 the recent winners of this have failed in the first classic. This looks a stronger race than most Craven's though.

City Leader has 4 stars
Ravens Pass has 3 stars
Scintillo & Twice Over have 2 stars

Normally 4 stars would mean an automatic selection depending on price & City Leader is as long as 16/1 & bigger on Betfair.
However he looks held on form by Ravens Pass from the Solario stakes at Sandown where Ravens Pass beat him by 7l at level weights.
City Leader then won a Group 2 at Ascot for which he has a 3lb pen today which makes him 3lb worse off with Ravens Pass today.
Ravens Pass went on the be 3l third in the Dewhurst on ground which was softer than ideal & he has the best form in the book.
Twice Over is two from two in a C&D maiden & a minor stakes here over 10f. Bare form is not up to much but he could be anything (or nothing)
Scintillo gets 2 stars because of his win in a Group 1 in Italy which is probably a good example of the rating been skewed by a win in a weak but valuable contest.

If Ravens Pass is going to win the 2000 Guineas he needs to take this in style & while he is the probable winner I'm going to leave the race alone at the odds.

Earl of Sefton
Group 3
9f 4yo+

This race in recent years is getting winners which go on to better things as with Manduro last year who won Group 1's at 8 & 10f & might well have won the Arc but for injury.
For 4yo+ races a selection must have at least 3 stars.

Pipedreamer has 4 stars
Multidimensional has 3 stars.

Pipedreamer has a similar profile to Halling who won the Cambridgeshire for Gosden before going on to Group 1 sucess with Godolphin.
Pipedreamer steps out of handicaps here & the stable is going well but with only Kandidate a confirmed front runner there may not be much pace on & he has been running in big fields where the pace was strong.
Multidimensional has not been easy to train but has Group 2 winning form from France & was hampered & maybe a bit unlucky in the Champion stakes.

Of the pair I'd go with Pipedreamer as I like an improving type but I'll only bet at a minimum of 2/1 here & 7/4 is the best on offer.

Rio.

[whoneedsrio]

A double for Henry Cecil from the two lightly raced types with Twice Over Squeezing onto the shortlist with 2 stars in an early season 3yo race.

Newbury
John Porter
12f 4yo+
Group 3

Royal & Regal & Malt or Mash both have 3 stars

Fred Darling
7f 3yo fillies
Group 3

Muthabara has 3 stars
Annie Skates, Lady Deauville & Nahoodh have 2 stars

Greeenham
7f 3yo C & G
Group 3

Paco Boy has 4 stars
Beacon Lodge & Sir Gerry 3 stars
Confront 2 stars

Having just finished a 12 hour night shift & still wary of early season form I'll continue to monitor results for now.

Rio.

[Jonesy Knows]

Absolutley awesome, well done Rio I hope you put the 3 together!!!

Originally Posted by whoneedsrio

A double for Henry Cecil from the two lightly raced types with Twice Over Squeezing onto the shortlist with 2 stars in an early season 3yo race.

Newbury
John Porter
12f 4yo+
Group 3

Royal & Regal & Malt or Mash both have 3 stars
1st Royal & Regal 13/2

Fred Darling
7f 3yo fillies
Group 3

Muthabara has 3 stars
1st Muthabara 9/4 F
Annie Skates, Lady Deauville & Nahoodh have 2 stars

Greeenham
7f 3yo C & G
Group 3

Paco Boy has 4 stars
1st Paco Boy 6/1
Beacon Lodge & Sir Gerry 3 stars
Confront 2 stars

Having just finished a 12 hour night shift & still wary of early season form I'll continue to monitor results for now.

Rio.

[WorkingForTheEnemy]

Nice set of results there!!

[whoneedsrio]

Originally Posted by Jonesy Knows

Absolutley awesome, well done Rio I hope you put the 3 together!!!

Nope, not a penny did I have on, as I've said it's rare for me to bet before the Guineas.
I'm trying to cover the full flat season although I have a holiday booked in the summer so that won't happen.
Working tomorrow & the weekend so the qualifing races will be up the night before.

25/04
Sandown
Gordon Richards
10f Group 3

Ask has 4 stars
Hattan, Championship Point & Philaelist have 3 stars.

A funny race with four quaifiers from seven runners. This is because the F/F category has two in joint first & three in joint second.

The class act in the race is Ask who is well in front in the Earnings & F/C categories but who drops back to 10f here, a trip he hasn't run over since June 06. Never the less he looks the one to beat but the money stays in the pocket as he will be a skinny price.

Rio.

[whoneedsrio]

The class horse Ask wins at 8/13, the two non-runners did not effect anything.

Sandown
Bet365 Mile Group 2

Major Cadaeux, Medicine path & Rob Roy all have 3 stars.

The winner should come from these three.
Medicine Path is up in class but progressive & under 2/1.
Maor Cadaeux may be best at 7f.
Rob Roy returns from a stint in the USA & has won this.

Hard to call.

Sandown
Classic Trial
10f Group 3

Centenial has 4 stars
Endless Luck, Latin Lad & Whitcombe Minister have 2 stars.

The in form John Gosden has a good record in this & Centenial should like the step up in trip but no bet at under 2/1.

Rio.

[whoneedsrio]

Major Cadaeux wins the mile race & Centenial the Classic Trial.

There is one more qualifing race in April at Ascot on wednesday after which there will be a monthly update before the serious stuff starts at the weekend.

Rio.

[whoneedsrio]

Soapy Danger has 4 stars
Distinction has 3 stars as did Tungsten Strke who is a non-runner.

Soapy Danger looked a progressive sort in 2006 & won the Queens Vase over C&D but then missed much of last year through injury before running quite well in the Autumn.
Won FTO at Doncaster over 12f on ground which was softer than may suit & looks the one to beat back up to 2m on faster ground.
Distinction would probably like more cut & usually takes a run or two to hit form.

Of the rest Peppertree Lane & Frank Sonata would also prefer softer going.
Baddam was runner up in this last year & goes well here but seems to have lost his way a bit & was gelded over the Winter.
Shipmaster needs to improve on previous form & is held by Soapy Danger from the Queens Vase win in 06.

I'm trying to avoid betting at under 2/1 but with the Johnston yard in decent form there looks to be a case for making my first bet here & I've taken the 6/4 with Betfred.

Bet.
Soapy Danger 50pts @ 6/4 Betfred.

Rio.

[bowles10]

typically after 5 consecutive winners the 1st one staked fails. Looks interesting though & GL as i will be watching with interest.

[whoneedsrio]

Originally Posted by bowles10

typically after 5 consecutive winners the 1st one staked fails. Looks interesting though & GL as i will be watching with interest.

Boy have I been mentally kicking my backside.
Not only did I take under 2/1 when I'm trying not to but I didn't check the weather & the going ended up on the soft side & then the bloody thing drifts to 3/1

Anyway April update.

The first task is to see how often the winner is shortlisted.

There were ten qualifing races in April & from these the winner was in the shortlist seven times (70%)
This is quite pleasing as I expected it to be a little lower this early in the season.

Quite early in his writings VDW claimed from the start of that years flat season to have placed 32 bets, 29 of which had won (90%) This of course had the after-timers screaming foul.
My interpretation of the original method had the shortlist for a race always at three & it's very likely that VDW was backing more than one in a race & maybe even all three.
This gives rise to the question if you back three in a race & find the winner is your strike rate 100% or 33.33%?
For my part I consider the total outlay on one race to be one bet, others may disagree.
At this stage I am not looking at "dutching" all the races in the trial but may do so in some actual bets odds permitting.

If I were looking to turn this into a pure system, ie one where the rules dictate a bet is made I would be looking at backing the 4 star selections.
To date there have been five 4 star selections, three of which have won at SP's of 6/1, 8/13 & 11/8 which would have returned 10.99pts for 5pts staked at levels, a profit of 5.99pts.
I will continue to monitor these selections.

Actual bets
Wins/Runs 0/1
Stakes 50pts
Returns 0pts
Profit/Loss -50pts

A busy weekend looms with the first two classics & other Group events.

Rio.

[whoneedsrio]

Dahlia Stakes

A small field of six runners

Passage of Time has 4 stars
Harvest Queen & Heaven Sent have 3 stars each.

If looks won races Passage of Time would win this hands down. I saw her before the Musidora last year & she is the most beautiful filly and no mug either. After winning that trial she flopped in the Oaks but needed treatment for a throat abcess & returned to run cracking thirds in the Prix Vermielle & the Breeders Cup Fillies & Mares.
Way in front of these on Earnings & F/C ratings she is the class act in the field.
However this could be one of those small field, muddling pace races & that coupled with the drop back in trip & a best price of 6/4 has me leaving this alone.

Harvest Queen progressed from handicaps to listed races last season. Shes had one try beyond a mile over 9f at Epsom & didn't get home. Not beaten far in the Group1 Sun Chariot here on her last run but needs to find a bit more.

Heaven Sent is the one that puts me off backing Passage of Time.
Another who moved up from handicaps last season to have some decent placed form at Listed/Group level. A winner of a weak looking Listed contest at Kempton FTO she's the sort of older horse that Stoutey squeezes more improvement out of. She has though still a bit to find to get to Passage of Times level & I'm sitting this one out.

2000 Guineas.

Ibn Khaldun & New Approach both have 4 stars.
Unusually nothing else has more than 1 star.

New Approach has the best form in the book winning all five starts, all over 7f & on all sorts of ground. Battled on well to take the Dewhurst from the absent here Fast Company & Ravens Pass who had travelled really well but had found the ground just on the soft side.
The unbeaten 2yo often doesn't train on & while a mile should be no problem at the price he has too many questions still to answer for me.

Ibn Khaldun improved in leaps & bounds last year ending up winning the Racing Post Trophy so we know he gets the trip. Also goes on any ground & said to have worked well in Dubai he looks the type to make a 3yo & at the prices appeals the most.

Of the rest, Ravens Pass looked a world beater in the Solario but then was it the ground in the Dewhurst? Also got worried out of it FTO in the Craven & may be one thats needs it all to go his way.
Henrythenavigator may have been best as a 2yo & is held by New Approach anyway.
Stimulation battled well to win the Free Handicap FTO but this is a big step up here.
The rest could be anything or nothing on what they've do so far so it's Ibn Khaldun for me.

Bet.
Ibn Khaldun 40pts @ 9/2 Skybet.

Rio.

[whoneedsrio]

I've had a PM from Mileni4uk about a VDW method for handicaps & after replying to him I've run the rule over the days big handicap the 4.00 at Newmarket.
When rating handicaps the method involves adding form & time ratings to the mix & it's quite time consuming so this is just a one off because I could never manage during working periods & therefore it's not part of the trial.
After ratings for handicaps are complete the top three rated would be the shortlist and in rating order these are,

Galeota
Genki
Kings Apostle

Having put the work in a bet seems in order, I'd be a bit worried by Galeota's low draw so I've split 30pts as follows.

Galeota 5pts @ 22.0 Betfair
Genki 15pts @ 7/1 Sportingbet
Kings Apostle 10pts @ 11/1 Sportingbet.

We'll see how things go.

Rio.

[whoneedsrio]

The Dahlia stakes as I thought it might be was run at a false pace & the well backed Heaven Sent rather pinched the race.

New Approach looked like living up to the hype but was just edged out by Henrythenavigator under a clever Murtagh ride.
Ibn Khaldun put in a shocker.

Kings Apostle did best in fifth in the handicap. That race is not part of this thread but the loss goes down in my thread in ATR.

Actual bets
Wins/Runs 0/2
Stakes 90pts
Returns 0pts
Profit/Loss -90pts

Jockey Club Stakes

Getaway has 4 stars
Nothing else has more than 2 stars in this 4yo+ Group2.

Getaway has done most of his racing over a bit farther than this but his best run was LTO in the Arc when a strong finishing fourth beaten under 2l at this trip. Sure to be suited by this stiff track & goes on the ground. No secret of my high regard for his trainer who won this two years ago & doesn't send them over for a day out.
Of the rest Yellowstone was well behind Getaway in the Arc & has left Ballydoyle.
Galactic Star is another Stoute older horse. Progressive last Autumn in handicaps & listed but disappointing form in the St Simon last run & doesn't look easy to get right.
The other class horse is Sixties Icon the 06 St Leger winner who took this FTO last year but then flopped in the Coronation Cup & at Royal Ascot on his only two other starts. Had a breathing op since which doesn't always work & also seems to need fast ground. If he was back to top form he would be a danger but Getaway looks the bet even at a shade under 2/1.

Bet.
Getaway 50pts @ 9/5 Sportingbet.

1000 Guineas

Natagora & Spacious have 3 stars
Infallible has 2 stars

Natagora has Group 1 form from the Prix morny & the Cheveley Park on this track, beating Fleeting Spirit in the latter with the rest well behind.
A few doubts over the mile trip but on breeding she should stay & did win smoothly FTO over 7f on heavy at Maisons-Laffitte. The ground today should be spot on & providing they don't go too fast early on she looks the one to beat.
Spacious is unbeaten in two starts the last one being the Group 2 May Hill at Doncaster but how good was that race? Likely to be a decent 3yo but a bit to find on form so far.
Infallible is also two from two, both here over 7f, the first a backend maiden & then an impresive return in the Nell Gwyn but again how good is the form?

Of the rest Muthabara is the third two from two filly & should be suited by the step up to a mile after taking an age to get going in the Fred Darling before looking good in the last furlong. Had an injury scare during the week though.
O'Brien runs two but both have plenty to find as does the other Irish raider Saoirse Abu. After yesterday I wouldn't touch the Godolphin horse with a barge pole & the rest look to be giving the owners a day out.
I'll take the filly with the form in the book.

Bet.
Natagora 50pt @ 3/1 Stan James.

Palace House.

Sakhee's Secret & Captain Gerrard both have 3 stars.

Sakhee's Secret is the class act but drops back to 5f here & needs fast ground to show his very best & the trainer blamed the overwatered ground at Haydock for his disappointing run LTO. Also has an 8lb pen here for his Group1 win in the July Cup and unlikely to be spot on here with bigger fish to fry later.
Captain Gerrard is the only 3yo but they have a fair record in this with two wins & three places from 20 runners.
Front runner who has Listed & Group3 winning form, ground should be ok & any rain would be a bonus. Said to have done well over the Winter & is a fair price here.

Of the rest the filly Enticing looked most progressive FTO last season but then tailed off quickly.
Rowe park also did well last season but needs to step up again.
Reverence has had a few injuries & looks on the downgrade & would also need it soft/heavy.
Conquest, Hoh Hoh Hoh, Judd Street, Matsunoske & Zidane all look like handicappers trying to nab a Group3 to me, I'll have a go with the 3yo.

Bet.
Captain Gerrard 25pts @ 10/1 Sportingbet.

Rio.