The Curse of the Flying Dutchman

[badden]

The back series

[whoneedsrio]

I'm somewhat puzzled as to the fate of my Middleton/Dante Stakes post which I thought I had put up yesterday morning, however I shall put it down to the working of night shifts which can have a similar effect to too much of the falling down water without the pleasure, at least until the following morning.

Yorkshire Cup
14f Group2

Royal and Regal has 4stars
Honolulu has 3stars

Sergeant Cecil looks to be on the downgrade & Geordieland would make hard work of it against a three legged donkey & the rest look to have a bit to find so the two shortlisted look to have it between them. However at around 4/9 the pair coupled I am not tempted but if forced to pick I'd take Honolulu whose O'Brien's runner & he had Yeats & Septimus entered here as well.
Royal and Regal is clearly going the right way but has yet to race on fast ground & I'm off to bed

Rio.

[whoneedsrio]

That old dog Geordieland caught Royal and Regal on the line, downed tools & almost lost it again, backing animals like him is the fast way to the poor house.
Honolulu ran a poor race.

Lockinge
8f Group1
4yo+

For a 4yo+ race a horse must have 3stars to make the shortlist. There are five of the field with 2stars & nothing with 3 or more so no shortlist = no bet.

Rio.

[whoneedsrio]

Irish 2000 Guineas
8f Group1

New Approach & Nownownow have 3stars
Famous Name & Jupiter Pluvious have 2stars

This has the feel of a strange race with the English 2000 winner Henrythenavigator on 1star but he has his ground & New Approach would probably like it softer but rain is forecast.
Famous Name may not run due to the ground which would bump Henry up to 3stars & New Approach to 4stars.
Jupiter Pluvious was supposed to be the no 1 from O'Brien but missed our Guineas & might need this.

No bet here.

Temple Stakes
5f Group2
3yo+

Fleeting Spirit has 4stars
Reverence has 3stars

Fleeting Spirit always had 4stars but Reverence moves up to 3 as Sir Gerry is a non-runner. However that one really needs it soft at this level & may not run also.
That would bump Tax Free up from 2 to 4stars but that one does not look up to this level.
Fleeting Spirit is three from three at 5f including the Group2 Flying Childers at Doncaster which is a similar track to Haydock. Her best form though is a close second to the 1000 Guineas winner Natagora in her last run in the Group1 Cheveley Park, over 6f at Newmarket. If she has trained on she would make them all go here.

Of the rest.
Dandy Man finds more trouble than Joey Barton & has yet to win at above Group3 but has run well twice in the King's Stand. This is his ground & trip & first run for Godolphin, who are showing some signs for turning the corner. A line of form from Kingsgate Native who beat him in the Nunthorpe & who Fleeting Spirit beat in the Molecomb would have the filly just in front here.
Desert Lord also has his ground but looks on the downgrade at 8yo.
Enticing has not gone on from her first start last season & the rest look out classed.

The filly will do for me.

Bet.
Fleeting Spirit 50pts @ 3/1 Bet365.

Rio.

[Brad]

Top marks again Rio

They don't come much better than that. Broke the track record in great style.

[Boxster]

Great call Rio, won in style.

[Red Dragon]

Nice one!

[whoneedsrio]

Thank Gents.

I got paid out at 7/2 as Bet365 pay SP if it's better than the price taken

50pts staked returns 225pts.

I appear not to have updated the totals after Haatef's run in the Duke of York, I blame the night shifts & I've just finished another. I've added it now.

In the Irish 2000 after the three non-runners Henrythenavigator & New Approach both moved up to 4stars.

Actual bets
Wins/Runs 5/11
Stakes 395pts
Returns 1015pts
Profit/Loss +620pts

Tattersalls Gold Cup
10.5f Group1
4yo+

Arch Rebel has 4stars
Duke of Marmalade & Finsceal Beo have 3stars

The two class ones are the 3star pair with Arch Rebel getting 4stars from being third in three categories.
With Finsceal Beo running well below the form that saw her win two of the three major European Guineas & get just pipped in the other this looks like going to Duke of Marmalade. I backed him several times last year but would not be tempted at odds on.

Irish 1000 Guineas
8f Group1

Carribean Sunset has 3stars
Kitty Matcham, Mad About You, Milton of Campsie & Saoirse Abu all have 2stars.

A real muddle of a race with the two market leaders trying to make up for traffic problems in the English 1000.
The 3star horse is in winning form but the stable jockey is on Mad About You who lacks a run.
O'Brien runs five which muddys the water even more. Time for bed

Rio.

[whoneedsrio]

Duke of Marmalade won the Tattersalls at 1/3.

Halfway to Heaven who was not shortlisted took the Irish 1000. At the moment the French Guineas form looks better than the English version.

The next two races are at Sandown on Thursday evening. As I will be at work Thursday the ratings will be up Wednesday night.

Rio.

[whoneedsrio]

I have to say I sometimes wonder if the people that run racing in this Country have escaped from the funny farm.
Whitsun (Spring) Bank holiday Monday used to feature an afternoon meeting at Sandown with the HenryII & Temple Stakes the feature races & on the following evening the Brigadier Gerard was the highlight.
Anybody in the south of the Country who would have wanted a day at he races this Monday just passed was out of luck unless they fancied a trek to Leicester or Chepstow.
Never mind at least this Saturday Goodwood, Newbury & Lingfield are all racing, the last two are evening meetings so maybe you could hitch lift on somebodys helicopter.
Even better in the North where Doncaster, Haydock & York all race in the afternoon

With the Temple Stakes moved again, this time to Haydock after the stalls farce at Epsom in 2004 the two days become one, on Thursday evening for crying out loud. Such a shame as it's a cracking card. Two Group races, two Listed events & two handicaps, one of which the Whitsun Cup used to be quite an important race.

HenryII Stakes
16f Group2
4yo+

Allegretto & Royal and Regal both have 4stars.

Allegretto won this last year but has yet to score FTO. She also has a Group1 pen from her last start when winning the Prix Royal-Oak at Longchamp in October.

Royal and Regal was progressive last season, ending up by winning the Jockey Club Cup at Newmarket over this trip.
Took the John Porter at Newbury FTO for new trainer M Jarvis & then got caught on the line in the Yorkshire Cup by Geordieland on ground that may have been too fast & he was in front a long time on his own. Should go well here back on soft.

Of the rest.
Tungsten Strike & Tanquil Tiger are both likely to miss this due to the ground.
Peppertree Lane goes on soft & can be hard to get past.
Balkan Knight also goes with cut but usually finds one or two too good at this level.
Sargeant Cecil looks past his sell by date.

The only bookie pricing up as I write is Paddy Power & they go 7/4 Royal and Regal & I'd want at least 2's to play here, maybe someone will go longer later.

Brigadier Gerard Stakes
10f Group3
4yo+

Lucano has 4stars
Silver Pivotal has 3stars

Lucano didn't race at 2yo & looked most progressive early last season winning at Listed class at this trip at Newmarket after breaking his duck in a Kempton maiden.
Followed that with a good fourth in the Derby but then disappointed a little at Royal Ascot & Newmarket.
Back to form when taking the Great Voltiger & then the St Leger on his last start. Drop back to 10f is a slight doubt & yet to race on ground this soft but his sire Dynaformer gets soft ground winners.

Silver Pivotal is a doubtful runner, this makes Lucano the only one on the shortlist.

Of the rest.
Maraahel will be better for his Chester run but is quite exposed.
Happy Boy makes his debut for Godolphin & this is pretty tough.
Pipedreamer progressed to land the Cambridgeshire last season & was a close third in the Earl of Sefton on his return. Bit to find on softest ground yet encountered.
Passage of Time would take some beating if running up to her best form but was disappointing on her return, will go on the ground though.

I'll take Lucano here.

Bet.
Lucano 30pts @ 11/2 Stan James.

Rio.

[whoneedsrio]

No return from Lucano last evening, he faded in the straight on the rain softened ground. I hope we're not in for another Summer like last year with the going all over the place.

Royal and Regal was reportedly a bit unlucky getting stuck behind the winner & not beaten far, although at even money albeit with three non runners he was never a bet.
Allegretto was well beaten FTO.

Actual bets
Wins/Runs 5/12
Stakes 425pts
Returns 1015pts
Profit/Loss +590pts

J W Lees (John of Gaunt) Stakes
7f Group3
4yo+

Major Cadaeux has 4stars

Major Cadaeux is top in three categories & second in the other.
Some decent form last season when highly tried including a sixth, beaten about 3l in the 2000 Guineas when reported has been sore after. Fair return at the Curragh & improved on that with a cosy win in the Group2 Sandown Mile LTO. Acts on any & has good at 7f & at 4yo is still open to improvement, looks the one to beat.

Of the rest.
Appalachian trail was impressive when winning a C&D Listed event LTO but that may not have been the strongest race & he doesn't have the greatest win/place strike rate. Also is a 7yo so not as much scope for improving.
Silver Touch did beat Major Cadeaux a hd at Newmarket last season but was a bit disappointing at the Curragh on her return.
Tell looks held from the Sandown race.
Beckermet is yet to score at better than Listed level & further than 6f.
Lovelace ran ok LTO but that was in Singapore only 13 days ago & generally held at Listed level.

Major Cadeaux can take this.

Bet.
Major Cadeaux 50pts @ 2/1 Paddy Power.

Rio.

[whoneedsrio]

A nice end to the Month with Major Cadeaux defying a slipping saddle & some traffic problems to land the spoils.

Actual bets
Wins/Runs 6/13
Stakes 475pts
Returns 1165pts
Profit/Loss +690pts

I'll have a bit more time during the week so I'll do the Monthly update then.

[whoneedsrio]

Prix du Jockey Club
10.5f Group1

Natagora has 4stars
High Rock, Vision D'Etat & Prospect Wells have 2stars

This is a race that has me head scratching. Before the 1000 Guineas a lot of the talk was would Natagora stay a mile? Yes she did but she was allowed to dictate from the front. Now here she is over another 2.5f taking on the Colts & without her usual jockey who is claimed for the favourite High Rock.
Now if she was going to step up & win at this distance the Prix Diane would seem the logical target, however there is a certain Zarkova waiting down that route. So do connections think that the Colts aren't up to much & this is the better option?

Of those in the shortlist High Rock seems to hold the best chance but 3/1 in this field is a short price.
Prospect Wells looks Fabre's second string with Pasquier On Thewayyouare who was doing his best work late on whe sixth from a poor draw in the Fench 2000.

Pascal Bary knows what it takes to win this having done so five times. So does Dettori who's won two of the last three.

4 stars & 7/1 available, I can afford to take a punt with the bank nicely in the black.

Bet.
Natagora 30pts @ 7/1 Betfred.

Rio.

[whoneedsrio]

Natagora ran a fine race to be third beaten just over a length.
The winner Vision D'Etat was on the shortlist

Actual bets
Wins/Runs 6/14
Stakes 505pts
Returns 1165pts
Profit/Loss +660pts

During May there were 26 races that Qualified.
This includes the two races at York that I thought I had posted up but for some reason I didn't.
The Lockinge had no shortlist & from the other 25 races the winner was on the shortlist 15 times (60%)

There were 21 4star horses, some races had more than one.
From these there were 8 winners with SP's of 7/4, 6/4, 5/2, 30/100, 2/5, 5/4, 7/2 & 10/11.
A level 1pt on the 21 would have returned 19.11pts for a small loss of 1.89pts.

From the actual betting point of view May could hardly have gone better with six winners from 12 bets & a healthy profit.

For the Season then.

25 shortlisted winners from 35 races (71%)
11 4star winners from 26 selections, 1pt on each would have returned 30.1pts for a profit of 4.1pts.

The Classic weekend looms with Royal Ascot to follow.

Rio.

[Brad]

Excellent start Rio, long may it continue

[Red Dragon]

Nice one!

[whoneedsrio]

Diomed Stakes
8.5f Group3
3yo+

Alexandros has 3stars

More often than not this is weak race for a Group3 & it has that sort of look about it here.

Majestic Roi Took the Fred Darling FTO last year & the Group1 Sun Chariot on her last run last season. She has a Group1 pen for that which makes life hard & her two runs this year at Nad al Sheba & in the Lockinge have seen her well beaten. Seems to need fast ground & it could be just on the easy side of good today.
Blythe Knight won this last year but that really was a weak race & at 8yo is unlikely to be improving.
Don't Panic won the Spring Mile but was well handicapped there, two seconds in Listed class after & he could be hard to place for a win now.
Dunelight is another who seems to need fast ground to show his best.
Metropolitan Man doesn't win very often & both wins were on g/f.
Mia's Boy is improving & mugged the odds on Lang Shining in a Listed handicap at York LTO, Blythe Knight was 3.5l third there & is a stone better off today & the form looks a bit iffy for me.
Young Pretender won his first two last season including a Longchamp Group3. Then was 5l fifth in the Group1 Grand Criterium at the same course & has since switched to Bin Suroor.
Didn't seem to stay in the Dante on his return & should be suited by the drop in trip, interesting that Dettori is on this one.
Alexandros also had some smart 2yo form when with Andre Farbe last season. Won a Group3 at Deauville & was third in the Group1 Prix Morny at the same course after. Another who didn't seem to stay in the Dee Stakes on his return & will be better at this trip & the ground should be spot on.

3yo's have not won this in the last ten years but three have placed from only seven runners & the two 3yo's look the ones that could be progressive.
Frankie doesn't always get on the right one when they run more than one & of the pair Alexandros looks to have just the better form on what they've shown so far, he's worth a bet.

Bet.
Alexandros 30pts @ 11/2 Hills.

Coronation Cup
12f Group1
4yo+

Soldier of Fortune has 4stars
Getaway has 3stars

Soldier of Fortune won the Irish Derby by 9l last season but that was a bit flattering. Won the Prix Niel after & returned to Longchamp for a just over 2l fifth in the Arc, form which ties in with Getaway & Youmzain. A lot of O'Brien's have needed their first run.
Getaway was one place in front of S of F in the Arc & was most impressive in the Jockey Club Stakes at Newmarket on his return, powering away from out of the dip. Stays further than this & the ground is right for him, looks the one to beat.

Of the rest.
Red Rocks would need to return to the form which had him winning at the 06 Breeders Cup, not really hit that level of form since & a bit to prove.
Youmzain was in front of the two shortlist horses in the Arc when an unlucky head second to Dylan Thomas & he could be the big danger here.
Fifth at Nad al Sheba was an ok run & Channon's are in better form now.

Getaway looks the one but is too short for me to bet.

The Oaks
12f Group1
3yo Fillies

Chinese White has 4stars
Adored, Clowance, Lush Lashes & Saphira's Fire all have 2stars

Lush Lashes has the best form in the book with a never nearer 2l sixth in the 1000 Guineas followed up by a 5l romp in the Musidora. Should stay the trip but might like it really fast.
Chinese White has 4stars despite only having had two starts the second of which was a Listed race at Gowran Park. Won on fast & soft ground & looks bred to like this trip. Trainer is not one to tilt at windmills & she must go well here.
Murtagh has picked Adored from O'Brien's six. Again they don't always land on the right one of his & he must have been tempted by the Cheshire Oaks winner Sail. The whole bunch are of course very well bred & could all improve for the step up in trip but all have a bit to find on form so far.
Clowance needs to step up on form shown too & all three starts came at Newbury, different kettle of fish here.
Saphira's Fire is two from two & won a 10f Listed race at Newmarket but this looks a big ask here.

Of the rest.
Michita is going the right way & should get the trip.
The one not shortlisted that I would be afraid of is Katiyra who is bred for this & was doing all her best work late on FTO at Leopardstown over 8f.
Oxx is another who doesn't send them over for the day out & Kinane has always been one of my favourite jockeys.

The main bet is Chinese White but I'm having a bit on Katiyra as well.

Bets.
Chinese White 40pts @ 5/1 Skybet.
Katiyra 20pts @ 13/2 VCbet.

Rio.

[whoneedsrio]

No return from yesterday but all three ran ok.

Actual bets
Wins/Runs 6/17
Stakes 595pts
Returns 1165pts
Profit/Loss +570pts

Princess Elizabeth
8.5f Group3
3yo+ Fillies

Cicerole has 4stars
Baharah has 3stars

Again not the strongest Group3.

Baharah started off last November in a 2&3yo maiden at Newmarket where she was third just over a length behind the useful Paco Boy. Got turned over at 2/9 in a poor aw maiden after but then won her next two on the aw both in small fields with not much pace on. A Kempton listed race was next where she was beaten 2l by Medicine Path with the other four, all quite exposed types. After a last of 15 at Nad al Sheba in a Group2 she then won a valuable Fillies handicap at Ascot on her latest start. Again there was no pace in a small field & the ground that day was g/f.

Cicerole has won at Listed class three times & also has good placed form from Group3 races. Good win from several decent types at Longchamp on her return this season. Ground should be perfect & trip spot on, can race up with the pace if needed. I like Lamaire & this is his only ride over here.

Of the rest.
Bahia Breeze & Barshiba don't have great strike rates.
Enforce is in foal which can have a positive effect & she won a Listed race at Goodwood FTO, needs to improve again here.
Jamboretta is 12lb worse off for over 4l behind Baharah from the Ascot handicap & looks held.
The rest look out classed.

Cicerole has a good level of form & is a fair price to take this Group3.

Bet.
Cicerole 40pts @ 9/2 Coral.

The Derby
12f Group1
3yo Entire Colts & Fillies

Casual Conquest & New Approach have 3stars
Rio De La Plata & Tartan Bearer have 2stars

New Approach has the best overall form & was the top 2yo. He also has the best bit of 3yo form in his second in the 2000 Guineas. His last run in the Irish 2000 was below that level but the ground was too fast for him that day. He was hanging a bit as well which may have been the ground or a sign of his suspect temperament, he needs company to get to the start. It's also quite probable that he's peaked already & others will improve past him. This seems a bit of an after thought & with the parade & the long trek to the start to handle he makes no appeal to me.

Casual Conquest has a similar profile to stable mate Chinese White from yesterdays Oaks, two runs, two wins. The Latter was FTO in the Derrinstown Stud Derby trial by 6l from Washington Irving. Only a small field but looked most impressive & that is one of the two top trials for this.
Looks sure to be suited by the step up in trip & the ground should be no bother.

The other top trial is the Dante won this year by Tartan Bearer by a head from Frozen Fire. That doesn't look the Strongest Dante but it's interesting that Ryan Moore has gone for Tartan Bearer over Doctor Freemantle. Watching the preview programme on the Beeb last night Fallon who's riding out at Stoute's during his ban said he would have had Tajaaweed. Moore never had that choice with Richard Hill's retained by the owner but than Fallon apparently changed his mind after working Doctor Freemantle & said he would ride that one. Theres probably not much between the three.

Hard to see Rio De La Plata staying this trip unless they crawl round & thats highly unlikely.

Of the rest.
O'Brien has five in.
If the Dante form is any good why is Murtagh on king of Rome instead of Frozen Fire who was only beaten a head at York?
I can't see why he thinks King of Rome would turn the Lingfield form with Alessandro Volta round, both didn't handle the last bend that well & while
King of Rome stayed on well enough Alessandro Volta looked to win a bit cleverly to me.
I get the idea that they don't know which is their best either.

Curtain Call has some good 2yo form 3l behind New Approach in a Group2 at the Curragh & won another Group2 there after. Not so good in the Racing Post Trophy on his last 2yo start & switched to Cumani after.
The sole run this season a win in a three runner minor stakes at Nottingham tells us nothing.

As with yesterday a lot of potential, it's about time we had a Derby winner that went on & won races like the King George & the Arc again, I'm hoping Casual Conquest can take the first step here.

Bet.
Casual Conquest 50pts @ 5/1 Blue Sq, price taken yesterday evening.

Rio.

[whoneedsrio]

No wins fro the two day Derby meeting but at least they all gave me a run for the money.
Lady Gloria was allowed a soft lead in the Princess Elizabeth & had enough left to hold off the heap that finished behind her.
Casual Conquest always had a nice position but had no response when the first two cleared away.

Actual bets
Wins/Runs 6/19
Stakes 685pts
Returns 1165pts
Profit/Loss +480pts

Prix Diane
10.5f Group1
3yo Fillies

Zarkava has 4stars
Belle Et Celebre, Satan's Circus, Leo's Starlet & Gagnoa all have 2stars.

Hard to see what can stop Zarkava making it five from five here. The French 1000 Guineas form looks the strongest of the three major European Guineas with the third there, Halfway to Heaven landing the Irish 1000 & the fourth winning a Chantilly Group2.
This is the first time she has raced away from Longchamp & the first try at this trip but no reason why she shouldn't act at Chantilly or stay the distance.
No bet at the price.

The Next Group racing in Britain is at Royal Ascot in just over a weeks time & I don't think theres anything in Ireland or France before then so it's a lull before the storm.
Also todays race is the last one where a horse can make the shortlist in a 3yo only race with 2stars, from the Royal meeting 3stars is the minimum.

Rio.

[Brad]

Good luck for Ascot Rio