Creating A Horse Racing System...please help!

[Lechero79]

Right, so I'm interested in building a mathematical model which would then attempt to create a tissue for each race.

However, whilst I know a lot about maths/statistics, my horse racing knowledge is not at the same level (although better than the average person), so I really need some help.

Basically, what would be a good start is all the factors which people feel is important in deciding the viability of each horse, and then a pecking order of each factor depending on how important you perceive it to be.

The things I can think of off the top of my head are going, course, distance, trainer form, jockey form, weights, top speed/postdata from RP, horse form. I'm sure there are many other things people evaluate when pricing up a race, so I'd be grateful for all input.

It's not a problem if the data is qualitative instead of quantitative, as I should be able to convert qualitative data into a numerical form.

Thanks,

Lechero.

[Gingertipster]

Hi Lechero,

Sorry just seen this post. If you are still interested in a mathematical approach / doing tissues; take a look at my "How To Produce A 100% Book" thread, on page 9 of the ATR site.

Also "Compilers The Advisor" (in this section) might give you a few ideas. Especially if you are in to "true odds". See also "Do you use True Odds" in ATR

Although I can not see how you can put all the data in to order. As (for example) one horses temperament would be 80% of the evaluation for a "dog" (very bad temperament). But only 5% for one with an average temperament. It will always be partly opinion. And with distance or going likewise, one who is a probable non-stayer might be 80% of the evaluation, possibly only 25% for a proven stayer. Because other positives and negatives come in to play.

Ginge