Cavelloman's E/W Non-Handicap Value + Exchange Bets Summer 2008

[cavelloman]

E/W BET


Ballinrobe 6.30


Trust in Me 1 pt E/W @4/1 with Bet365(BOG)

May be better suited to the furlong less today. Favourite been running over 2 miles in NH races. So hope of a minor shock here

[cavelloman]

Originally Posted by cavelloman

E/W BET


Ballinrobe 6.30


Trust in Me 1 pt E/W @4/1 with Bet365(BOG)

May be better suited to the furlong less today. Favourite been running over 2 miles in NH races. So hope of a minor shock here

Sharp track was just perfect for him

Profit on Bet = 5 pts

[cavelloman]

Originally Posted by cavelloman

E/W Bet

Huntingham 7.10

Cortinas 3 pts E/W @11/10 with Bet365(BOG)

Rated at 120 OR. The 2nd favourite of A King was beaten 20l LTO while the 3rd fav is yet to race in the UK. If they are fancied we will get a bigger price si I see this as a value bet

Very easy. Outclassed the field.

Profit on Bet = 3.96 pts


Profit on Day = 8.96 pts

Forza del Cavello

[ardman123]

Top work again.

Quick question do you do this full time or is it just a very profitable hobby for you.

[Kamo]

Well done yet again Cavelloman two great selections

[cavelloman]

Originally Posted by ardman123

Top work again.

Quick question do you do this full time or is it just a very profitable hobby for you.

Hobby

Profitable hobby.

[JB1979]

Thanks

Forrzzzzaaaaaa

[Red Dragon]

brilliant work, thanks.

[cavelloman]

E/W Bets

Outlay to Date = 168 pts Return to Date = 207.68 pts Profit to Date = + 39.68 pts

Exchange + Other Bets

Outlay to Date = 37 pts Return to Date = 58.43 pts Profit to Date = +21.43 pts


Combined Profit to Date = 61.16 pts

[Belomir]

Awesome, thanks cavelloman.

[mpendle]

Top picks Cavello, thanks!

[cavelloman]

E/W BET

Wetherby 7.25

Wizard Dust 1 pt E/W @5/1 with SportingBet

The favourite Fourty Acres looks the obvious pick in this novice hurdle But with him being odds-0n there appears to be some value with ourselection. Been running consistently in class 4 hurdle races which have been marginally better class the the 2nd favs efforts in Class 5 races. The favourite beat very little LTO and may be a little too short.

[cavelloman]

Exchange+ Bet

Wetherby 6.55

Norman Beckett 1 pt @7/2 with BetFred + 1 pt place only @2.18 with Betfair

The favourite is actually consider inferior on official ratings. Petra Stars may be a soft ground winter horse and Terenzium is well held on collateral formlines. The ditance of the race may be a problem for our selection but got good form over 2 miles 2 furlongs on the very sharp Fontwell track. Wetherby is considered to be on the sharp side. So IMO Norman Beckett is a litttle overpriced at 7/2 and a fairer assessment would be 11/4 IMO. Only a small stake however.

[cavelloman]

E/W BETS

Newcastle 7.35

Gulchs Rose 2 pt E/W @ 7/2 with BetDirect(BOG)

Maha Duba 1 pt E/W @6/1 with Bet365(BOG)


Josephine Malines 1/2 pt E/W @11/1 with BetFred

In a race which looks to contain a favourite that could be overrated a standard bet on the 2nd,3rd and 4th favourites. All of which have reasonable relatives and some hopeful form.

[cavelloman]

E/W Bet

Sandown 7.15

Allegretto 2 pts E/W @4/1 with Coral

A course winer a Group 1 winner acts on going. Must be backed notwithstanding first outing of season

[cavelloman]

Originally Posted by cavelloman

E/W BET

Wetherby 7.25

Wizard Dust 1 pt E/W @5/1 with SportingBet

The favourite Fourty Acres looks the obvious pick in this novice hurdle But with him being odds-0n there appears to be some value with ourselection. Been running consistently in class 4 hurdle races which have been marginally better class the the 2nd favs efforts in Class 5 races. The favourite beat very little LTO and may be a little too short.

Fell would have at least placed

Loss on Bet = -2 pts

[cavelloman]

Originally Posted by cavelloman

Exchange+ Bet

Wetherby 6.55

Norman Beckett 1 pt @7/2 with BetFred + 1 pt place only @2.18 with Betfair

The favourite is actually consider inferior on official ratings. Petra Stars may be a soft ground winter horse and Terenzium is well held on collateral formlines. The ditance of the race may be a problem for our selection but got good form over 2 miles 2 furlongs on the very sharp Fontwell track. Wetherby is considered to be on the sharp side. So IMO Norman Beckett is a litttle overpriced at 7/2 and a fairer assessment would be 11/4 IMO. Only a small stake however.

Unplaced

Loss on Bet = -2 pts

[cavelloman]

Originally Posted by cavelloman

E/W BETS

Newcastle 7.35

Gulchs Rose 2 pt E/W @ 7/2 with BetDirect(BOG)

Maha Duba 1 pt E/W @6/1 with Bet365(BOG)


Josephine Malines 1/2 pt E/W @11/1 with BetFred

In a race which looks to contain a favourite that could be overrated a standard bet on the 2nd,3rd and 4th favourites. All of which have reasonable relatives and some hopeful form.

Only one placed (a 66/1 getting placed)

Loss on Bet 5.6 pts

[cavelloman]

Originally Posted by cavelloman

E/W Bet

Sandown 7.15

Allegretto 2 pts E/W @4/1 with Coral

A course winer a Group 1 winner acts on going. Must be backed notwithstanding first outing of season

Last

Lost on Bet = -4 pts

Loss on Day = - 12.6 pts

Right back Saturday or Sunday(new month)

[cavelloman]

E/W Bets

Outlay to Date = 181 pts Return to Date = 209.08 pts Profit to Date = + 28.08 pts

Exchange + Other Bets

Outlay to Date = 39 pts Return to Date = 58.43 pts Profit to Date = +19.43 pts


Combined Profit to Date = +47.51 pts yield again in excess of 20%





Very poor night marked out for me with Wizard Dust(5/1 to 5/2) falling when staying on and looking (to me at least) the likely winner and a 66/1 shot getting in the place money at Newcastle. Actually for me the worse days betting for the month


Still can't moan too much with over £450 profit to £10 per point. Plus for my soccer followers winning somewhat more. For my combined followers they are yet to have a losing month this year. Still I did make some major mistakes tonight and below are my mistskes:

1. Allegretto first run of season in a very difficult to win race. Should have know this at my age. Don't guessabout fitness in competitive races.

2. Backing 3 horse in the Newcatle race when clearly from my form analysis only the 2nd and 3rd favs could be considered viable winners. Don't try to cover every angle with a belt and braces job it will cost you profit in the long run



However can't find fault with my other selections.

Therefore in future will now limit E/W selection to just 2 imax in any given race unless a 16+ handicap (rarely bet in these). This should increase yield in the long run.

O.K. Sorry about tonight Hope nobody lost too much. I will be back this weekend seeking value bets in many non-handicaps on the flat on Saturday and over the jumps on Sunday. We are shortly coming into the period of the season when races are dominated by the first three in the betting especially in maiden and novce races so I expect to be putting up some E/W doubles shortly. These can often give us some nice touches in the summer months.