Cavelloman's E/W Non-Handicap Value + Exchange Bets Summer 2008

[jackeychan14]

got to agree with you Aardman123.Amazing stuff again cavelloman
If Carlsburg did forums!!...........you know the rest.

[cavelloman]

E/W BETS

Fakenham 2.20

Great Grimsby 1 pts E/W @9/4 with Bet365(BOG)

Gradually improving and in a race with most of the runners outside the handicap should have a good chance of at least placing

Supreme Team 1 pt E/W @6/1 with Bet365(BOG)

Finished behind the favourite at Fontwell by c10l But get a 20ib pull here and may now give this moderate animal a winning chance.

[cavelloman]

E/W BET

Fakenham 3.50

Cannibar 1 pt e/w @11/2 with BetFred

Somewhat inconsistent but pitched in here with a good chance if he can reproduce recent chase form where he is rated over 120 OR. Best on faster ground and if chase OR is reproduce over hurdles is very closely matched to the favourite who not run for a while.

[cavelloman]

Originally Posted by cavelloman

E/W BETS

Fakenham 2.20

Great Grimsby 1 pts E/W @9/4 with Bet365(BOG)

Gradually improving and in a race with most of the runners outside the handicap should have a good chance of at least placing

Supreme Team 1 pt E/W @6/1 with Bet365(BOG)

Finished behind the favourite at Fontwell by c10l But get a 20ib pull here and may now give this moderate animal a winning chance.

2nd and 3rd

Loss on advised bets = -0.35 pts

[cavelloman]

Originally Posted by cavelloman

E/W BET

Fakenham 3.50

Cannibar 1 pt e/w @11/2 with BetFred

Somewhat inconsistent but pitched in here with a good chance if he can reproduce recent chase form where he is rated over 120 OR. Best on faster ground and if chase OR is reproduce over hurdles is very closely matched to the favourite who not run for a while.

Profit on Bet= 6.19 pts

[cavelloman]

Exchange + Other Bets

Outlay to Date = 28 pts Return to Date = 58.43 pts Profit to Date = +30.43 pts


E/W Bets

Outlay to Date = 99 pts Return to Date = 106.75 pts Profit to Date = + 7.75 pts


Combined Yield = 30.1%

Forza del Cavello

[Boxster]

Outstanding yet again!

[cavelloman]

E/w BETS

8.25 Sedgefield

Tucker 2 pts E/W @ 3/1 with Paddy Power.......3.5 with Bet365(BOG) for doubles

Clocked a faster time compared to standard then the favourite LTO at Wetherby. Rated in excess of 100 on the flat may now be improving over hurdles

Speed Up 2.0 pts E/W @3.25 with Bet365(BOG)

Ran well recently at Aintree and obviously acts on a sharp track.

X

Add this for E/W Doubles

Sedgefield 7.20

Safari Run @2.1 with Bet365(BOG)

Closely rated with the favourite over hurdles But bred more for chasing then the favourite. But this being a first run over the bigger obstacles only qualifies for E/W Doubles IMO


2 x 0.5pt E/W Doubles

[cavelloman]

Originally Posted by cavelloman

E/w BETS

8.25 Sedgefield

Tucker 2 pts E/W @ 3/1 with Paddy Power......3.5 with Bet365(BOG) for doubles

Clocked a faster time compared to standard then the favourite LTO at Wetherby. Rated in excess of 100 on the flat may now be improving over hurdles

Speed Up 2.0 pts E/W @3.25 with Bet365(BOG)

Ran well recently at Aintree and obviously acts on a sharp track.

X

Add this for E/W Doubles

Sedgefield 7.20

Safari Run @2.1 with Bet365(BOG)

Closely rated with the favourite over hurdles But bred more for chasing then the favourite. But this being a first run over the bigger obstacles only qualifies for E/W Doubles IMO


2 x 0.5pt E/W Doubles

Loss on Bets = -5.38 pts

[cavelloman]

Late E/E Bets

2 pts E/W Dolly Penrose @5/1 with Bet365(BOG)
1 pt E/W Wells Lyrical @12/1 with BetDirect(BOG)

Based on Market Comparsions

[cavelloman]

Originally Posted by cavelloman

Late E/E Bets

2 pts E/W Dolly Penrose @5/1 with Bet365(BOG)
1 pt E/W Wells Lyrical @12/1 with BetDirect(BOG)

Based on Market Comparsions

3rd and 4th

Loss on Bet = -2.6 pts

[cavelloman]

E/W Bet

Worcester 7.20

Smart John 3 pts E/W @3/1 with Bet365(BOG)

With a rating of 110 OR and form in a class 3 handicap may be able to take on the favourite who may be flattered by a rating on 120, Delayed Approach is coming form bumpers and is a bit of a lurker. But with our selection trading at 1.37 for the place an E/W interest is a definite play.

[cavelloman]

E/W Add

Cullihall 4 pts E/W @11/8 with William Hills

Price now makes this also an E?W value bet market comparsion figures below.

High outlay in this race so for no shocks

[cavelloman]

Market Comparsion Figures

HORSE	BF PL	BF WIN	BOOK ODDS	% Edge
SMART JOHN	1.42	4.25	4.00	6.05%
CULLIHALL	1.18	2.30	2.37	11.25%

[cavelloman]

Salisbury 6.40

Bet without the favourite

Klynch 3pt E?W @7/2 with Paddy Power

Same horse

Green on first run. Better on 2nd outing and the form of that race reads well afterward. Considered a 20% chance by Peter May's NN generated time ratings. 7/2 looks a bit of e/w value here without the favourite

[LaRoz]

Top pick on Klynch

[cavelloman]

Originally Posted by cavelloman

E/W Bet

Worcester 7.20

Smart John 3 pts E/W @3/1 with Bet365(BOG)

With a rating of 110 OR and form in a class 3 handicap may be able to take on the favourite who may be flattered by a rating on 120, Delayed Approach is coming form bumpers and is a bit of a lurker. But with our selection trading at 1.37 for the place an E/W interest is a definite play.

Unplaced loss on Bet = - 6pts

[cavelloman]

Originally Posted by cavelloman

E/W Add

Cullihall 4 pts E/W @11/8 with William Hills

Price now makes this also an E?W value bet market comparsion figures below.

High outlay in this race so for no shocks

Won

Profit on Bet = 6.60 pts

[cavelloman]

Originally Posted by cavelloman

Salisbury 6.40

Bet without the favourite

Klynch 3pt E?W @7/2 with Paddy Power

Same horse

Green on first run. Better on 2nd outing and the form of that race reads well afterward. Considered a 20% chance by Peter May's NN generated time ratings. 7/2 looks a bit of e/w value here without the favourite

Profit on Bet = 12.6 pts


Now in front for the week.

We don't want a losing week do we

[Kamo]

Well done Cavelloman Fantastic stuff as usual, I was on, missed 1st bet as did`nt get in till 6pm then got 4/1 at PP for Klynch